76 Correction with Harmonic Big pop on potential bad news into the common retracement level along with a textbook harmonic.
Looks like a good spot to try a short.
SCHW trade ideas
SCHW: One of the worse performers in 2023. Cautiously $LONGMain Idea/Insider "Alpha": Many large tech companies like NASDAQ:GOOG and NASDAQ:META use Schwab as their vendor to manage RSU grants. This makes me think Schwab is a great long-term investment and will continue to have good cash flow, assets under management, etc.
In the idea above, I present a bull case and a bear case. At worse, this will be neutral and you can sell options against your position and/or collect dividends.
In high interest rate environments, usually "banks" do well, and so schwab will benefit from halo effect if we see finance stocks continue to do well over the long-term.
Other data points
This website seems bullish as well:
simplywall.st
REWARDS
Trading at 12.7% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 14.51% per year
Earnings grew by 10.8% over the past year
Pays a reliable dividend of 1.81%
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 35.2%
RISK ANALYSIS
Significant insider selling over the past 3 months
Charles Schwab primary trend remains bullish.Charles Schwab Corporation - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 62.22 (stop at 59.42)
The primary trend remains bullish.
A break of the recent high at 61.15 should result in a further move higher.
The bias is to break to the upside.
Bespoke resistance is located at 61.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Our profit targets will be 69.22 and 71.22
Resistance: 58.62 / 61.15 / 64.00
Support: 57.50 / 56.26 / 54.50
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SCHW good R/RTrade Idea: Potential long trade on SCHW (Charles Schwab).
The stock is retracing to a channel trendline aligned with a gap filled today, possibly offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
Target 1 around 64 could cater to a safer approach, while a more aggressive stance might aim for the 74.81 gap fill.
SCHW - Bullish pennant or symmetrical triangle A pennant is a type of continuation pattern formed when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trend lines—the pennant—followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, which represents the second half of the flagpole. (Source: Investopedia)
NYSE:SCHW has been trending up and with the recent quarterly report had a massive gap up followed by a tight consolidation.
Confirmations to look for:
1. Fundamentals - Look at industry sector and other earnings report that can support the bullish thesis for the continuation.
2. Breakout with High Volume
3. Retest of previous resistance or sellers reaction points
Early entry is 65.51
Entry with confirmation can be around 66
Price Target is 68-70
If price holds 68, then 73, 75
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?While I believe that the markets are currently standing on the edge of a cliff and will not produce a new all time high, it's very important to note that price action is yet to confirm that, with the most significant catalyst of them all being Wednesday's FOMC.
Wednesday's FOMC is important because whether the Fed hikes again and how much they hike will determine what happens with bond yields, which determines what happens to bond prices (inverse correlation), which determines what will happen with the U.S. Petrodollar.
There's no FOMC again until September.
I discuss what I think will happen this week in the following call:
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon
Charles Schwab is an important piece of the U.S. banking structure because it's the 10th largest bank in the country.
When you take a look at recent price action on banks, everything seems to be going pretty well, and it's almost as if the Silicon Valley Bank crisis never happened.
SIVB's demise, however, was a really significant canary in the coal mine because that particular bank was not only one of the largest in the country, but a major intermediary between the West's venture capital community and the Chinese Communist Party.
You just absolutely have to keep an eye on what's going on with China and the International Rules Based Order right now, because everything "Taiwan War" is really talking about how the globalists can take control of China as the CCP falls.
Based on this, I think Taiwan Semiconductor is a significant long hedge right now because it's not a component of the U.S. indexes, and is a world leader in silicon wafer production:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
China is the world's 5,000 year country and has huge natural resources and a huge population of very sophisticated people, so it's a target.
If Xi Jinping is smart, he will weaponize the 24-year persecution, organ harvesting, and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million believers to protect himself and the Motherland.
But if he does this it means that the entire world will quickly be implicated in the Nero-like persecution of spiritual cultivators of an upright faith. The impact on the markets, our society, and our reality will be extreme.
And oh so hard to bear.
I can only say if you want to be long at this point, you need to be hedged long on volatility or you might die.
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
The enormous Schwab dump from March, which you primarily see was a fully manifested failure swing only on the monthly bars:
Was spurred on by the banking crisis, which served as a prelude to the very significant bear market rally we've had.
Now everyone believes new highs are in order and everything is going to be fine. It's time to go long, go on vacation, and collect money while being hammered in a speedo at the beach with the other men.
What a painful hangover.
The problem with the more up more right now crowd's thesis on Schwab is that the entire range above where we're at, and we're already flirting with the 79% retrace of the March gap down, was already filled, which we see on the weekly:
Moreover, there are two significant price action problems with the bull case from a market maker perspective.
The first is that Schwab dumped to exactly $45.00 in the first place. Computers don't like preserving round numbers and people just love to put stops under/at psychologically significant whole numbers.
The second is that the COVID dump was likewise $28.00. And for the same reasons, that's even more dangerous.
I am predisposed to believe that Schwab is likely to be the next Credit Suisse-style big short, and may even be the vanguard for the next crisis that would take us under SPX 4,200 and towards 3,700 in accordance with the new JPM collar, which I discuss below:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
As for what the fundamental story will be, it's very hard to say.
But let's compare Schwab's monthly bars you see above to some other top 10 banks:
Bank of America Monthly
Does not show any indication of failure swings and really just looks like a healthy retrace.
While Wells Fargo does not look strong enough, it also does not yet indicate a real short setup on higher time frames
And this is even more true for JP Morgan
And Goldman Sachs
Which can be, at worst, only be said to be setting up for the first leg of a failure swing. At worst.
And thus it is extremely notable that Charles Schwab is as weak as it is.
My call is the thesis that the optimal short entry is already here, with some kind of flirtation with the $70.00 mark due for FOMC.
And if Schwab and the banking sector and the equities sector are truly bullish, that would be great, but I still expect a stab back into the "wick play" area before it would move to set a new all time high, which means $69 to $50 is really quite the win if you're short and quite the loss if you're longing the top or haven't taken profits.
If Schwab and the banking sector are really the catalyst for something as disastrous as Nasdaq 9,000, then the target is under $28 and you're more or less standing on the edge of The Big Short.
Right now, with the VIX as suppressed as it is and price as high as it is, January '25 $55 puts are only $3.7~ with at the money puts being $8.3~
Just selling them on a flirt with $50 again, let alone $44.99, is already a big win.
Humans never believe in anything until they can see it. It's one of their worst deficiencies.
$SCHW Charles Schwab looks BullishBanks have been flying on positive news flow, stress tests, dividends, etc. Looks like NYSE:SCHW will see a good momentum on the upside.
RSI is showing Bullish signs, price is taking support on previous resistance levels, moving average is turning upwards indicating further upward momentum.
Buy Price - 57.72
Stop Loss - 54.91
Targets - 66.47, 73.57
Note: This idea is for educational purpose only and is NOT a BUY/SELL recommendation. COnsult your financial advisor for trading in equities.
CHARLES SCHWAB Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 070423 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 56/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
SCHWSitting right near two support levels $47 and then $45.75.
18% to reach first level of resistance and 26% to reach the second level of resistance. RSI is low 40s at this time.
At time of writing it is a day after the ex-dividend date (0.25c/share). Will look to add first at $47, then $45.75 if drop continues.
Need to research how involved they truly are in the regional banking dilemma first too. Otherwise seems like a solid longterm investment
Watchlist 2023-04-19 $SPY $SCHW $UHC $LUV $COEP $TSLA AMEX:SPY - pointing lower this morning as treasury yields rose with fear arising in tech earnings. SPY looking very toppy with volume decreasing as a rising wedge builds and it reaches close to the 418 pivot high. If we stay below 413.5 - 414.5 this morning, and price action is showing signs of sellers in control (strong red bars and sequential green bars with lower vol), next support I am looking at it 410.
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
$UHC - united Insurance Shares Slide After 'Going-Concern' Warning on their ability to continue to operate. Day 2 continuation short play, nice that PM is consolidating near the PD lows. PM RVOL 18. Room to the nest support levels, 134 and then 1.00. Small cap name so it doesn't necessarily need the market but it sure doesn't hurt. If it trades over 1.80 short idea is invalid.
NYSE:LUV - day 2 continuation short after delays of thousands of flights yesterday over a technology issue. If it stays below the 31.70 inflection from PD, room to the range low and PD low of 31. Note that PM RVOL is 2.4.
NASDAQ:COEP - small cap play that looks to be gaining some vol. Heavily sold or shorted PD PM but couldn’t move much further intraday. If COEP holds over 1.60, could see shorts start to get trapped. Nothing but room to at least .2.17 and this high flying after that.
Other watches:
NASDAQ:TSLA - short below 175.50
NYSE:SCHW - continuation long over 54.25
