$SMCI Head and Shoulders NASDAQ:SMCI spotted Head and Shoulders pattern. Price is holding at support level. Until it bounce or break, will determine its next direction.
SMCI trade ideas
SMCI March 29, 2024: A Head & Shoulder FormingNASDAQ:SMCI is a clear leader during this bull market. However, after a 260% run-up from a previous buy point as shown on the chart, the stock is struggling to move up further.
Now it might slowly form a Head & Shoulders Pattern, and a breakdown through the neckline would signal a sell.
Interestingly, the neckline is right near the 50-day moving average (blue line), therefore a breakdown there will be an even stronger sell signal.
SMCI Shows WeaknessSMCI made money for many. I think fair to say people are cashing out. We have a broken trend line and a right shoulder rejecting perfectly at a fib level. I don’t know if we break the neckline with buyers below. However, I do believe we small sell off as people look to cash in on their gains. Followed by a nice bounce with people who are dying to get in. I’m targeting the 900 level.
SMCI Critical level IncomingSMCI saw a nasty down move today with the market.
Semiconductors led the downside move today.
It seems massive amount of capital rotated out of the market today.
This low float volume stock can unwind in a sharp way if this support is breached.
Remember dip buyers will likely start to accumulate as semis are coming from All time high bull market.
Everyone is watching the potential head & shoulder pattern that could trigger with more weakness.
SMCI IS it overextended or hunting for thin air LONGSMCI is intimate with NVDA and the couple are doing quite well. I got some more at $750 and
2 days ago. Predictive Modeling is suggesting a $1000 price by Tuesday afternoon. That would
be a 33% return in less than a week. The chart shows the bull flag after the reversal out of
the down trend where I bought upon the mass index signaling. The AI indicator suggests
a slowly rising parallel channel with the upper boundary in the $1000 range. It suggests
an interval nano-dip in the premarket on Monday for a buy at the opening bell. I am good with
that. I have high confidence here due to the overall trend strength of AI. Software also
NOW, DDOG,CRM SNOW .......
SMCI - consolidated - ? Continuation or ? Reversal SMCI has been on an impressive trend up since the first day of the trading year. On the 15
minute chart It had a healthy 12% pull back about February 22-29 but then rallied again on
a reversal upside to nearly the ATH of $ 1075 set on Friday 2/16. I note that traders like
to trade SMCI on Fridays and likely are chasing same day expiration call options. I know this
because I have been one of them. SMCI is now in a high tight bull flag pattern. Typically
this is bullish for another leg up of equal magnitude after consolidation. I will suppose
the probability of a breakout higher is 75% and breakdown 25%. I may play this with
a set of stop orders. A buy stop at $ 1030 and a sell stop at $ 1005 with a share proportion
set equally. When SMCA breaks from the consolidation one of the two orders will trigger
while the other will be in play until cancelled or triggered. My bullish bias is that the buy stop
will trigger and I will miss only a small piece of the price action in the initial continuation.
I will assess for a call option trade upon continuation. The volatility indicator helps me pick
entries with an alert set for volatility beyond the running mean either bullish or bearish.
SMCIMy personal view on SMCI, I’m expecting price to continue the bullish momentum after a breakout of the falling wedge pattern.
What do you Think about this chart?Investor Psychology and the Recipe for Bubbles: How Emotions Fuel Unsustainable Growth
The allure of quick gains and the fear of missing out can create a powerful cocktail that fuels stock market bubbles. These periods of rapid price inflation, often disconnected from a company's fundamentals, are fueled by specific investor behaviors that can be both fascinating and destructive. Let's delve into the psychological factors that contribute to bubble formation:
1. Herd Mentality: Humans are social creatures, and this extends to the investment world. When we see others making money on a particular stock, a natural tendency emerges - to follow suit. This "herd mentality" amplifies gains and losses, as investors rush to buy (or sell) based on what others are doing rather than conducting their own due diligence.
2. Anchoring Bias: Investors often fixate on an initial piece of information, like a stock's price or analyst rating, and use it as a reference point for future decisions. This "anchoring bias" can lead them to ignore negative information or cling to overly optimistic outlooks, even when reality contradicts them.
3. Confirmation Bias: Humans are naturally drawn to information that confirms their existing beliefs. In the context of bubbles, this can manifest as investors seeking out news and analysis that reinforces their bullish sentiment, while ignoring any bearish signals or red flags.
4. Overconfidence: Investors often overestimate their knowledge and ability to predict the market. This "overconfidence" can lead them to take on excessive risk, making them more susceptible to the allure of overvalued stocks in a bubble environment.
5. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): The fear of missing out, or FOMO, is a powerful motivator that can drive irrational behavior. When investors see others profiting from a hot stock, they may be tempted to jump in, even at inflated prices, simply to avoid regret later.
These psychological factors, combined with external factors like low interest rates and media hype, can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. As more investors pile into a specific stock or sector, demand outstrips supply, pushing prices higher. This reinforces the initial belief in the stock's potential, attracting even more investors, further inflating the bubble.
However, bubbles are inherently unsustainable. Eventually, reality sets in, fundamentals catch up, and the bubble bursts. This can lead to significant losses for investors who were caught in the euphoria.
Therefore, understanding the psychological drivers of bubbles is crucial for investors. By recognizing these biases and remaining grounded in fundamental analysis, investors can avoid getting swept away by the excitement and make informed decisions that prioritize long-term value over short-term gains.
SMCI to $1,300/$1,400 in coming 1/2 monthsSMCI is a great buying opportunity here offering great upside potential. I see a 30/45% move over the coming weeks/months.
Possible Butterfly Bull Trap in SMCI The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern.
Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template.
However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH?
When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high.
This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone.
This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends.
Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
Super Micro Computer's AI Server AscendancyIn the bustling landscape of AI server providers, Super Micro Computer Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) emerges as a beacon of innovation and efficiency, securing its spot in the prestigious S&P 500 index. With close alliances with tech giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro rides the crest of the AI server boom, revolutionizing the market with its agile product development and cutting-edge liquid cooling technology.
Unveiling the Advantages:
Unlike its competitors, Super Micro boasts unparalleled agility in product launch, courtesy of its strategic partnerships with Nvidia and AMD. This advantage propels Super Micro to the forefront of AI server supply, fueling a staggering 289% surge in its shares within a single year. Analysts laud the company's ability to swiftly manufacture, assemble, test, and ship server racks, often within mere weeks, positioning it as a key supplier in the realm of generative AI applications.
Revenue Surge and Market Projections:
Super Micro's meteoric rise isn't merely a fleeting trend; rather, it's a testament to its robust revenue growth, which more than doubled in the final quarter of 2023. Projections paint a rosy picture, with analysts foreseeing triple-digit percentage growth until at least the September quarter of 2024. Bank of America forecasts a substantial increase in Super Micro's share of the AI server market, projecting a rise to 17% by 2026.
Valuation and Risk Factors:
Despite its stellar performance, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) faces scrutiny over its lofty valuation, currently trading at 40 times expected earnings—a significant leap from its PE of 15 just months prior. This valuation hike heightens the risk of a potential selloff should the company falter in meeting future earnings expectations. However, with its proven track record and innovative edge, Super Micro remains poised to navigate these challenges adeptly.
The Liquid Cooling Revolution:
In tandem with the surge in AI server demand, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) spearheads the adoption of liquid cooling technology—an indispensable solution for data center operators grappling with the escalating heat generated by AI chips. Super Micro's proprietary liquid cooling tech, boasting a 40% reduction in power consumption compared to traditional air cooling methods, positions it as a frontrunner in the race towards enhanced efficiency and sustainability in data center operations.
Challenges on the Horizon:
While Super Micro basks in its current success, analysts caution against complacency, highlighting the looming threat of intensified competition from industry heavyweights. Moreover, the company's strategy of offering products at lower rates to gain market share could potentially undermine its profitability in the long run. Nonetheless, with its penchant for innovation and adaptability, Super Micro remains well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of AI server provision.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:SMCI shares after starting off the day well ended up plummeting by 6.96% despite its inclusion in the S&P 500. Trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53 indicating there isn't much overbought lately.
Possible long entry.If the price closes above 1200 usd with above average volume, a long entry would be possible.
SMCI Super Micro Computer Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought SMCI ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SMCI Super Micro Computer prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 480usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-1,
for a premium of approximately $42.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SMCI looks ready to breakoutVolume's dropped off, PA consolidated inside a penant on the daily. Could go either way, would personally have a stop loss around $805. Short-term target $1200.
$SMCI The short has begun. Lower RSI and falling and failed to cross the RSI MA on hourly chart. Higher probability of a retracement due to strong run up.
Smci No stocks can stay above a hot rsi at 94 for more and a week or two . April 19 puts would the safest bet on this scam as we all know they tend to just keep going up regardless of the overnight indicators at least for couple days , but then when the correction happens we will se 20% drops in a day and continue for a month of downtrend. At rsi of 94 on the weekly it is in a good position to be shorter with little risk. Not an advice
SMCI Has it topped?Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is about to complete a 10 straight green week streak if the 1W candle closes bullish today. This is a highly impressive feat that not only it hasn't done before but only a few stocks have managed to do historically. On the other hand, this may be a signal that yet again, SMCI is time to take a breather.
Why? First because it has completed a +417.86% price increase since the October 30 2023 Low, which is the exact % rise the stock did during its previous Bullish Leg from January 27 2023 to July 31 2023. At the same time, the 1W RSI is testing the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in June 2018.
If rejected today, we expect the stock to correct by -35.55%, which might be significant, but nothing compared to the rise it has achieved. In fact as you can see on the chart, such % decline has been very common in the past 4 years. Amidst the correction, we expect it to make contact with the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). As long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds as a Support, the long-term bullish trend is intact, and every such correction is a long-term buy opportunity.
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Navigating High-Flying Momentum Stocks: Insights from SMCINavigating the intricacies of high-flying momentum stocks can be challenging, especially when they move at an exponential pace. Take SMCI for instance, a prime example of such stocks. Upon examining its chart, I noticed a rising wedge within an uptrend. Typically, these patterns tend to resolve to the downside.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that sometimes these wedges experience an overshoot breakout. In such cases, patience becomes paramount as you await the stock's return within the wedge to initiate a short position, targeting a decline towards the bottom of the wedge formation.
Upon closer inspection, an intriguing RSI divergence emerges. While the price continues to make new highs, the RSI heads in the opposite direction, failing to confirm the upward movement. This discrepancy warrants attention as it often signifies a potential reversal in the making.
Understanding these technical indicators can provide valuable insights for navigating volatile market conditions and making informed trading decisions. Keep a keen eye on SMCI and similar stocks for potential trading opportunities based on these observations.
SMCI buy zone?My dowsing is suggesting a potential big low coming in this name. I have tomorrow coming up multiple times as a possible reversal date and entry long.
It could be Wednesday though, and the downside I've gotten as 789, but earlier a couple times got something about the number 18, which I thought was percent and would = around $700.
I ask if we hit there though and get no.
My targets on this are usually over shot fyi, but there is positive energy being suggested and a buying opportunity potentially for a longer term. Same with NVDA.
I asked the date to exit and get May 2026. A couple days ago it told me 20 months = Oct. 2026
Another dowser said he got a "yes" to 20 months, so this isn't necessarily going away anytime soon.
I'll work on an upside later. Not so worried about it since this is a longer term idea (I believe) and I'm not confident I would get a correct answer anyway.
We'll see!
One Last Pop To At Least 1170Buying this dip here to catch the final pop before ditribution begins.
Minimum target 1170
- earliest by end of day 2/16
- latest Mar 1 2024
*** Anything above this will be pure squeeze, but there is really no roof for how high this can go.. I'd say 1300-1500
Pretty wild.
