Virgin Galactic. Space Traveling Booming time? 22/June/23SPCE. Time for travelling SPACE "commercially"? for "ordinarily people"? "Would you spend $450K travelling to the outer sky/ space with Richard Branson?...
SPCE trade ideas
SPCE: A Journey Back to OrbitVirgin Galactic has and faced numerous financial and operational struggles, including the backruptcy of it's subsidiary Virgin Orbit. However, this company is set to commence commercial "space flights" this 2023 Q2. There has been an uptick in stock price action lately, as I believe awareness is spreading.
Short term: 1-2 months
I expect the stock to pop short term as we "buy the rumor, sell the news" into the upcoming scheduled space flights around end of June.
Long Term: 1 year+
I'd expect the macro environment to drag most stocks down in 2023 Q3/4 as we face recession headwinds, but if SPCE can become profitable I see it reclaiming it's all time high soon after achieving profitability.
SPCE OTM calls?A lotto play, FOR SURE.
But, it was a nice gap. I THINK some buyers can come in eventually.. This selling today is all the bag holders selling.
I will buy shares also. I'm in 1400 right now. Just to see if any love comes from this initial 40% gap.
The calls will be $7 Oct and Jan
Virgin Galactic - SPCE outlook showing signs of strengthLooking a the SPCE chart from a birds eye view it shows the company is overdue for a run. For months it's been trading sideways. It almost looks like it's break out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Until recently a spike caused by bullish news sending the stock from around 4.04 to 6.50.
On the run up it rejected the 6.50 price and came back mid day to the 4.50 level. The Fixed range volume profile showed from 4.04 to 6.50 on the initial the point of control was shifted to 6.50 where most volume was traded at the top. It showed a new level of support based on the visible range volume profile after it was rejected in the 4.81 - 4.63 range which to me was a buy zone. Even if it drops a little bit im okay with the risk to reward ratio with calls out to July 7th.
I wanted to get in it but I wasn't going to buy in at the top. The visible range volume profile showed me that most the volume came from these price levels. The fixed So I took the trade and look for a momentum run up in anticipation of the commercial flight between june 27th and june 30th.
The blue horizontal lines represent my take profit levels with the first retesting the 6.50 level. If price moves agressive I'm looking for it to close gaps from the prior months. The closer to launch date I can see it running up because people don't want to miss the run and a lot of buying pressure should be coming in up to these dates. Not to mention there's another flight shortly after in July I believe if there are no delays.
We will see how this plays out. My calls don't expire until July 7th after the first flight if there are no delays.
Thanks for taking the time out to read this.
Trade responsible,
Jay
#TradeTheWave
Going to Space?The chart looks interesting to me with a touchback on the RSI-ish chart near bottom... Not financial advice.
SPCE Stock Swing Trading Idea - Capitalizing on Price Reversal Hello, fellow traders! Today, I am thrilled to present you with an exciting swing trading idea for SPCE stock, focusing on a potential price reversal and the opportunity to capture buy side liquidity.
Based on my analysis, I anticipate the price to decline into the violet area, representing a fair value gap. This presents a potential entry opportunity as the market reaches this level. I suggest considering a buy position when the price approaches the fair value gap, as it may indicate a reversal in the near future.
Furthermore, I have identified the presence of buy side liquidity beyond the fair value gap. This liquidity area acts as a potential target for this trade, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio of approximately 1 to 4.1. This signifies that the potential profit is more than four times the potential risk, making it an attractive opportunity.
However, it is important to implement proper risk management measures. Consider placing a stop loss order below the recent swing low to protect your capital in case the price does not follow the anticipated pattern.
Remember, trading carries inherent risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough analysis and make informed decisions. Adapt your strategy based on market movements and manage your positions accordingly.
Wishing you success and favorable trading outcomes!
Ninja Talks EP 13: Monk ModeA Bambi's biggest trading obstacle in 2023 will be over trading in a bear market, especially the crypto kiddies looking for their next pump.
This is why you have to restrain from whoring yourself out to the market in the hopes of making a quick buck.
We call this, monk mode.
Not the whoring, the opposite.
Monk mode is abstinence from indulgence and has been the theme of a couple of our past episodes - and for good reason, it's what 99% of tiktok traders these days suffer from, so as a public servant and your local connoisseur of fine trade ideas I give you the following guidance.
Create a fatal funnel of filtration.
Filter trades through a strict process.
Example;
Potential
Potential high quality
Triggered high quality
Triggered+ confirmation on lower timeframe high quality
You can use tradingviews watchlists and flag function to get the job down easy.
This process will ensure you (1) Take only A+ setups (2) Remove all unnecessary trade setups (3) Maintain a higher win rate (4) Improve confidence and reduce anxiety and most importantly (5) Eradicate over trading.
Does this make sense what I'm saying?
Tldr version;
Create a very strict filtration system to ensure you don't chase weak trades and only profit from A+ setups.
Hope this helps.
Follow me here and on Twitter for more.
See you in the next episode Ninjas!
Nick
Short-term trend Momentum built up, price now higher than 10 sessions ago.
Commodity Channel Index showing a reversal of the current short-term trend ( Bearish to Bullish)
Potential Earnings play, fundamentals are looking up for Virgin Galactic after a bleak winter.
A change in Intermediate TrendMACD Signals Prominent Shift in Intermediate-Term Trend: Transitioning from Bearish to Bullish
Expecting a shift towards ~$5.00
Short term (2 - 6 weeks) Bullish
Intermediate Term (6 weeks - 9 months) Bullish
Long term (9 months+) Bearish
$SPCE The Potential Of Space TourismAfter two years without launching a spaceflight, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is set to have its first flight since 2021 later this month as a test run before its first upcoming commercial as mentioned in its latest earnings call. Moreover, SPCE has stated its goals for the under-development delta class spaceships moving forward, which would supposedly bring in a slew of revenues for the company. With SPCE having a high short interest, SPCE stock could be a considerable short squeeze play.
SPCE Fundamentals
Breaking out of the 50 MA on the daily chart, SPCE could be witnessing a shift in trend as a result of the company’s recent updates regarding its first commercial spaceflight. SPCE recently stated during its earnings call that it is launching its Unity 25 crew later into space this month which is the company’s first flight in two years to perform a final assessment before launching its first commercial flight Galactic 01 at the end of June. With this in mind, SPCE stock could soar if its first commercial flight proves successful.
Using its 6-seated VSS Unity vehicle, SPCE will be able to launch 6 passengers during its first commercial flight next month at a ticket price of $450,000 per passenger, which translates into $2.7 million in revenues per flight. With a relatively low variable cost of approximately $400,000 per flight, SPCE is set to capitalize on massive profits at around $2.3 million per flight which could bring the company closer to profitability. As SPCE expects one flight per month from its Unity vehicle, the company would generate a revenue of $8.1 million per quarter and a revenue of $32.4 million per year.
Aside from starting commercial flights being one of SPCE’s main goals this year, the company aims to complete designs for the under-development delta class spaceships alongside building the required tooling and beginning the parts fabrication for the ships. Moving into 2024, SPCE expects to continue parts fabrication while anticipating the assembly phase to begin. Finally, SPCE expects to start testing the vehicles in 2025 and launch its first commercial delta vehicle flight in 2026. SPCE’s CEO, Michael Colglazier stated that the Delta class spaceships will be the key driver of revenue growth and profitability for the company over the long term. Based on this, SPCE could be an exceptional long-term investment.
SPCE currently has a high short interest sitting around 23.75%, while also having 43.68% free float on loan and 100% utilization. If SPCE’s first commercial flight ends up a success, SPCE stock could witness a short squeeze during the next month.
SPCE Financials
In its Q1 2023 earnings report, SPCE reported $1 billion in assets, including $415.6 million in cash and equivalents. SPCE witnessed a decline in its assets from $1.1 billion, however, its cash and equivalents grew from $302.2 million in Q4 2022. SPCE’s liabilities grew QoQ from $659.7 million to $666.7 million as its current liabilities increased from $184 million to $190.8 million while its long-term liabilities increased from $475.6 million to $475.9 million.
For the three months ended March 31, SPCE revenues grew YoY from $319 thousand to $392 thousand, while its operating loss widened from $91.3 million to $163.7 million as its Research and development costs increased from $51.8 million to $109.8 million. Finally, SPCE’s net loss also widened YoY from $93 million to $159.3 million.
Technical Analysis
SPCE stock trend is neutral as it is currently trading in a sideways channel between the support at $3.11 and the resistance at $4.19
Looking at the indicators, SPCE stock is currently trading above the 21 MA, 50 MA and 200 MA which is a bullish sign. The RSI is approaching overbought at 61 and the MACD is bearish.
Fundamentally, SPCE’s most recent catalyst was its Q1 earnings, while it has an upcoming catalyst which is the company’s first commercial spaceflight at the end of June, however, the company didn’t specify a date.
SPCE stock price is expected to rise in June in light of the company’s first commercial flight. A possible play is to go long ahead of the company’s upcoming commercial flight. An entry point would be to wait for confirmation if the stock breaks out of its channel as it has tested its resistance multiple times as of late, taking profits along the way on testing the $5.59 resistance and the $6.35 resistance.
SPCE Forecast
As SPCE is set to launch its first spaceflight in two years which is a final assessment before its first commercial flight in June, the company could gain a good deal of revenues moving forward. With the company continuing its efforts on manufacturing the delta class spaceships, SPCE’s revenues could grow even more by 2026 when it is commercialized while also reaching profitability making the stock an astounding long-term investment. Based on these reasons, in addition to having a high short interest, SPCE could be an exceptional short squeeze play.
SPCE to consolidate again or move higherGreetings and salutations,
SPCE otherwise known as Virgin Galactic reported earnings today and imo was a good ER. SPCE is on track for commercial flights end of June with the Italian Air Force and reoccurring flights shortly thereafter. There will also be another flight to space end of May. With these catylsts SPCE will surely do well.
If Institutions decide to load up again around the $3.25 remind your self of the phrase. Note that %B has triggered past the zero line, now it needs follow through for pump to the upside.
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Warren Buffett
To the Mooon?SPCE is stirring up headlines again to try and gain some trading volume it looks like. Their PR team is quite tactical in positioning articles perfectly around earnings reports. Is this some positive news to maybe provide a story to the upcoming earnings report? With the stock being essentially on a slow descent back to earth since it dropped down below the $10 price range, is this where we found some support with the double bottom structure forming. With shares at just $3.91 you can now pick up shares at a great discount compared to IPO.
SPCE ? Consolidation ? Short Squeeze ?SPCE is at a line in the sand of the chaos of the market.
On the 4H chart, price has bottomed and might be making a reversal pivot
as supported by a rising line segment on the RSI out of the oversold zone.
The though of a reversal is also supported by price crossing over the POC
line of the volume profile. Price above the POC line shows buyers are dominating
although some of the buyers are buying to cover shorts. Below the POC line,
sellers are dominating. If SPCE can get a trajectory upward, a short squeeze
could ignite a launch.
( Fundamentally, SPCE is dying and waiting for Eton Musk to make a good offer.)
This could be worth watching with an alert set 10% above the current price and
a volume alert at 50% above the moving average 20-day volume.
SPCE No Earnings Burning Cash Swing ShortSPCE is losing money for 4 consecutive quarters showing that it is fundamentally
a losing proposition, perhaps destined for bankruptcy or alternatively share dilution
to raise cash which would prejudice present shareholders. Perhaps these scenarios
are baked into the price.
On the 4H chart the long downtrend dating back 2 years has continued. After
the turn of the calendar year SPCE got a little pullback from the downtrend but
has made a head and shoulders during the most recent earnings.
It is easy to see Virgin Galactic as a swing short opportunity while it is slowly
turning itself into a penny stock. Perhaps it will be Mr. Musk's next project
after finishing with Twitter and he will join it into Space-X which may or may
not reverse the slow demise. This is a clear case the interplay between
risk and reward. I will play this swing short until the week of the next
earnings.
Intermediate-termDouble top or inverse head and shoulders
~$4.75 Acting as support (A bullish sign as 75% upside with 40% downside)
Bullish case being a market bottom at $3.24, test of support followed by continuation to ~$6.75
Bearish case being a double top and continuation of the downtrend, wait for the tests before entering position.
Virgin GalacticNow any significant positive news is needed (announcement?)
Apparently, they have set a wave (ii)/(b
Stop loss under 3.4$
Catalysts await50MA and 200MA narrowest since SEP21, crossover soon. Potentially Bullish, if the right catalysts. Sideways movement
200MA acting as support.
RSI Showing strength
MACD Similar outlook
Golden or Death cross in 7 days? After earnings.
VIRGIN GALACTIC ready for launch
Hi viewers, SPCE long time bearish trend, here now strong bullish progress technically watched in next periods to expect
TP1:6
TP2:7
TP3:8
02/01 - SPCE bullish -
Reason to buy :
1. Accumulation in the $5 - $6 area, it's been accumulating from $3.
2. Retracement stopped at the .38 level, which is still uptrend.
3. 200 SMA acted as a resistance on 01/27, but people accumulated more @ $5.40 - 5.50 area
Reason to sell :
1. SL $5.30, it's a reasonable and tight stop but RR is good with this setup.
*NOTE*
**I see a small RSI divergence in the chart. I would sell if T1 and R1 act as another resistance.
Ride the bounce Short term swing trade idea using the BB% 20 indicator. When it crosses the zero line expect a bounce IF there is follow through. Not financial advice. Happy new year to all :D
$spcelooks like a ascending triangle forming on $SPCE, if a close above 5.65+ can happen~ looks like it can clear some 6 month lows.
SPCE LongLate January - mid-February price target of R3 ($6.11).
R2 ($5.60) still being tested, another test and flip of support likely.
Before catalysts such as earnings, news or PR.
We've had a golden cross and high volume that's stayed constant. The MACD is still wide and shows no signs of narrowing long term. Likely, we're entering the consolidation phase before the next move up. If you want to enter, now is a good time. When news does arrive, we're definitely going to explode past R3, as $SPCE truly gets going (I personally see this as the most likely scenario). On the other hand, if another delay is to occur due to testing etc we will plummet substantially.
Next update before Earnings.
