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SPY trade ideas

SPY: End of March/Start of April Hey everyone, Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week. The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550. I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying. Here is the forecast: The red line is the best fit projection. Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557. If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559. The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support. The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level. If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply: As of right now the target to really just care about is 546. And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down. Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha. Safe trades, enjoy your weekend! P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
AMEX:SPYShort
by Steversteves
30
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 EOD Review : Brutal SellingI sure hope all of you were able to profit from this big selling trend today. And I also hope you didn't get trapped in the potential for a base/bottom rally off the recent lows. This move downward reminds me of the 2022-2023 downward trending pattern when the Fed was raising rates. What Trump is doing with tariffs is very similar. It is slowing the economy in a way that will not break it - but it will result in slower, more costly, economic function. Watch this video and I sure hope all of you have great (profitable) stories to share with me today. I know I do. And, I'm positioned for the weekend. Ready to profit no matter what the markets do. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
20
Spy What's up guys? Here's a update .. I'll cover NYA,Qqq,IWM,XLk,XLF Here's NYA Notice the price action above the yellow line? That's Wyckoff distribution. Yesterday we retest that prior support.. the next leg down on this should start. For more information just research Wyckoff distribution! XLF (Banks) Exact same chart as NYA.. Wyckoff retest... Pain incoming XLK This is the most important chart you will see on this post! XLK is the biggest sector on the SPY! If XLK goes down so will the spy! Daily chart is a major rising wedge.. 4hour chart showing a bear flag That same bear flag is showing on SPY and Qqq IWM Bear flag inside of bear channel To sum it up if Qqq breaks below 477 tomorrow or Friday , DO NOT CATCH THE KNIFE!!!!! We will most likely make new lows for March.. Core PCE tomorrow but don't forget about end of quarter rebalancing on Friday.. the last hour of the market WILL see some wild moves .. Next week is a black out period with no earnings and it is the week of Tariffs. I think if they do flush they will try to get most of the selling done before earnings season kicks off April 7th. Sorry if this is a little rushed but I've been busy.. I'll try to update this more tomorrow.. Lastly Vix I thought they would flush this back to 14.73 but when QQQ rejected off it's 200ma , Vix bounced off it's 200ma (No coincidence).. unless PCE sends this below 17.00 tomorrow we are headed back to 23.00 If you need a bigger picture just look at my previous spy post But let me break this down to you simple. This spy, you see the yellow area I am highlighting? THAT IS WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION! NOW GO TO YOUR WEEKLY CHART , ZOOM OUT AND LOOK AT THE STRUCTURE OF TVC:DJI NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL They are all showing distribution , some 6months worth of it.. So what happens when distribution support is broken as It was on SPY at 580? What happens next is a Reset! It is exactly what happened in 2022...
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
15
SPY Technical Outlook - Will Buyers Step In?AMEX:SPY is experiencing a corrective move after rejecting the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This rejection led to increased selling pressure, bringing price back to the lower boundary of the channel, where buyers may step in to defend the trendline support. If the price holds at this dynamic support level, a bullish reaction could send AMEX:SPY toward the midline of the channel, with the next target around 607.00. Holding above this level would reinforce the bullish trend structure and increase the probability of continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel. However, a breakdown below the trendline support would weaken the bullish outlook and open the door for further downside. Monitoring price action, volume, and confirmation signals will be crucial in determining the next move.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendDiva
28
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 : Carryover in Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward in early trading. The SPY may possibly target the 564-565 level before finding support. The QQQ may possibly attempt to target the 475-476 level before finding support. Overall, the downward trend is still dominant. I believe the SPY/QQQ may find some support before the end of trading today and attempt to BOUNCE (squeeze) into the close of trading. Gold and Silver are RIPPING higher. Here we go. Remember, I've been telling you of the opportunities in Gold/Silver and other market for more than 5+ months (actually more than 3+ years). This is the BIG MOVE starting - the BIG PARABOLIC price rally. BTCUSD has rolled downward off the FWB:88K level - just like I predicted. Now we start the move down to the $78k level, then break downward into the $58-62k level looking for support. Love hearing all of your success stories/comments. GET SOME. Happy Friday. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend. I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days. I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend. In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup. Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months. BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range. As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-27-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will continue to melt downward (possibly attempting to fill the Gap from March 24). I strongly believe the SPY/QQQ are completing the "rolling top" pattern I suggested would happen near or after the March 21-24 TOP pattern my deeper cycle research suggested was likely. At this point, things are just starting to line up for a broader market decline while the current EPP pattern plays out as a Breakdown of the EPP Flagging formation (moving into consolidation). Gold and Silver are RIPPING higher. Yes, I do expect a little bit of volatility near these recent highs. But, I also expect metals to continue to rally higher from these levels over the next 10-15+ days. Watch the video. Bitcoin is stalling/topping - just as I suggested it would months ago. Now we see how the market move into this new trending phase and how far this current trend will drive price trends. I believe the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin will all continue to move downward while Gold/Silver move (RIP) higher on this breakaway move. This is a PERFECT trader's market. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
SPY: Last week of March ish Oh yeah, posting early because I had coffee this evening and am wired. Happy Friday! Hope you all had a safe and profitable trading week, if not, don't sweat it, the PA was pretty bad and pretty challenging for most. The worst part is the current PA requires a lot of patience. If you're a scalper, probably not so bad but I personally find there are a lot more scalp traps lately than usual, so I do advise against scalps. Doing another written post, just because I find I can organize my analysis and thoughts better and be more in-depth without wasting too much of your time. So let's start off with the summary for next week, adding some new variables that my stuff tracks but I generally don't share, but I should share because it may be helpful for you. Summary Here is the snapshot for SPY for next week: Best fit high target 567.96 with a probability of 29% (shown on the chart in white) Best fit low target is 553.95 with a probability of 73% (shown on the chart in white) Expected return on the week is -0.6% Expected High ATR Range from RSI is 3.20 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from RSI is -4.05 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from MFI is 5.18 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from MFI is -3.01 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from Stochastic is 3.38 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from Stochastic is -6.7 (open to low) SPY Remains below the EMA 200 on the day, having had multiple rejections, and multiple attempts at reclaiming but always failing to hold. We still have our outstanding 5% pullback from the cross below the EMA 200. The TP is approximately 533 ish. Overall, based on the summary, the outlook is bearish. 🐻 Volume Data Volume profile has shifted from a sea of selling to a lot of buying over the last 5 days. POC for the last 5 days (1 trading week) is now up to 564, so this will be an area to watch for consolidation and generally not an area to take a trade. This is a very important thing to keep in mind, you don't want to do anything if SPY is at 564 as this is consolidation zone based on volume!!!! Volume remains overall low. If we look at the last 25 trading days, we can see that sellers are very much there, it is likely that we have just dropped in volume this past week. Take a look at the 25 day (1 trading month) volume profile: If you read the description in the volume profile chart, you will understand the predicament, and also understand kind of, where the rangeyness and whipsaw come from. There is still a lot of panic in the market, a lot of fear, people are trapped and looking for exits. This translates to stark rejections of certain levels where bulls and bears are trapped. Leading into this week we only had trapped bulls, now we have trapped bulls and bears, so we are between a rock and a hard place in terms of making progress in a direction without seeing a lot of covering leading to some more volatility and whipsaw. Overall, the volume metrics are positive and I would rank them as bullish. 🐂 EMA Data We crossed below the EMA 200 on March 10th and closed below on the day. This historically leads to 5% pullback on average across both SPX, ES1! and SPY. The pullback of 5% is calculated from the close of the day, which was around 557. So, 557 - 5% is about 529 ish (I am rounding, the TP is more around 531 - 533). Currently we are holding the EMA 300 as support. We have had over 3 failed reclaims of the EMA 200. Overall, the EMA statistics are bearish 🐻. Time Series I haven't talked about time series in a hot minute. Like years acutually. So those of you who are long time followers, hi, how are you?! You will remember the sacred time series that carried us through the 2022 decline. As of right now, I am leaning heavily to the quadratic time series model. Leaning towards a quadratic model assumes bear market correction. This could be or couldn't be. We won't know for sure until the market makes a new ATH. However, it was my guiding light in 2022 and it is current guiding light right now. So let's just go over SPY's quadratic time mean, range and forecast very quickly. SPY's qudratic time series model can be expressed as y = trading days(-3.902e-02) + trading days squared(1.062e-05) + 1.109e+02 Sigma or residual error range is 39.32 Taking this into consideration, SPY's current quadratic range is between 529 and 451. 451 is the LCL or lower confidence level. The LCL is where SPY found a bottom in 2022. Historically in bear markets, only 1 bear market has exceeded the LCL, and that was in 2008, where it exceeded by around 5 points. Overall, the time series statistics are bearish 🐻. Quick side note, if you followed me during 2022 and you have a photographic memory, you will notice our sigma (error range) is the exact same as currently, +/- 39. Kind of cool because it tells us SPY is really not doing anything it hasn't done before. Forecast for Next Week Forecast using only this past week data Forecast using the entire downtrend period and this consolidation period Data input: Forecast result over the next 150 hours: Overall, the forecast is bearish 🐻. Verdict We have what? Four bears, 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 for 1 bull 🐂. To summarize Volume: Bullish Overall stats: Bearish Time series: Bearish Forecast: Bearish EMA Bearish My expectation is up towards 570 into Monday, before seeing a rejection and consolidation again. Currently, the EMA 200 is at 568, 570 would require another break of the ema 200 and fail. The bearish thesis would be tentatively invalidated if we were to break and hold above the EMA 200. In this case, we would be looking for a further bounce of around 5% more upside. Those are my thoughts, not advice of course. As always, safe trades! 🚀 Side note: We are all sick and tired of SPY. Leave a comment with a request for something more interesting and I will try to get around to it this weekend! Maybe TSLA or something different.
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
48
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-25-25 : Top PatternToday's Top Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will find resistance slightly above yesterday's closing price level and attempt to roll over into a bearish price trend. Watch today's video to see which levels I believe will be the top for the SPY & QQQ. I do expect metals to rally over the next 3+ weeks and I'm watching for this morning's bounce to carry onward and upward. Bitcoin should be rolling downward off that FWB:88K top level I predicted months ago. We are moving into a topping phase - so get ready for the markets to attempt to ROLL DOWNWARD over the next 5+ trading days into a deeper low price level. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-26-25 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat-Down pattern for the SPY/QQQ suggests the markets will consolidate in a sideways channel, generally drifting downward. As I've been warning all of you for the past month+, the market will likely roll over into a topping formation over the next few days, then start an aggressive downward trend targeting $525-535 on the SPY. Today's video covers some details related to my expectations and how traders can prepare for the bigger moves I see pending. Gold and Silver are poised for a potentially BIG BREAKOUT move to the upside. And I still believe Gold/Silver are going to rally another 15-20% within the next 30-45 days. Bitcoin should follow the SPY/QQQ into a "rollover top" type of pattern then shift into a downward price trend over the next few days. Everything is following my predictions/expectations almost perfectly. Now, we try to profit from some of these big moves. Go get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
12
$Spy Road To $544well in summary this is the same chart i made 2 in a half weeks ago with no changes i never changed my thesis to bear lol allocating funds to the downside for my Short thesis!!! Lets see if we hit $544 this week Market sentiment is Bearish Terrif Reactions will most likely be priced in shortly so the market can actually choose its direction short bear market or bear market this week, this week will give a lot of insight and valuable information as always safe trades good luck traders and yes i will update this thread when in my theory and assessment analysis of $544 hits where i think the market go from there!!!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
6
$SPY Short position.To add context, I am an average joe in his 20's who graduated high school with a 1.6 GPA.. Prior to my current employment at a financial institution, I worked as a gas station clerk. I am not someone who sees himself as a genius, but I am somebody who identifies patterns not only in people, but charts as well. I've worked for a bank on the credit card side coming up on 5 years. Day in day out, people are struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. 750-830 FICOs struggling to keep up with bills. Keep in mind, I only work with what we deem our 'high value', cliental. If our card holders who we deem to be good or great consumers are struggling to keep up, I can only imagine what it looks like for those who don't qualify to get to my department (which is a rather big pool of people). This thesis is centered around a possible correction in the short term, that may lead to a long-term reset based off of 4 things: human behavior, Federal Reserve Data, inflation, and credit. The market as we know it has been propped on lies, fraud, and negligence. This is not a political post, but if you look at Federal Reserve Reports through FOMC under the previous administration, over 48% of job reports specifically, were revised downwards. During the duration of March of 2021 to September of 2024, approximately 808,000 jobs were "added", to the economy. One can make the argument that these numbers were there to, 'fluff, reportings to hide one of the worst economies in history. The Dollar has been a concept and an asset since 1785. Since 2020, we've printed over 60% of all dollars circulating. Over 200 years and it only took the U.S. a little under 5 years to print over 60% of all U.S. currency circulating. The inflation never left; it was hidden by false or fraudulent data. Americans have been squeezed from their hard-earned dollar for the last 4 years, between higher interest rates, higher inflation and cost of living. Remember how I mentioned I work for a bank on the credit card side? Minimal payments, easily $6500 dollar balances on average, being carried month to month between 24-27% APR. Americans DO not have money. Over the last month, one of the most common statements I've heard is, "The only way I can pay this off is I cash out on assets.". Delinquencies are sky rocketing to levels not seen since '07 - '08. People are slowly getting the same thought. The first week of April in my opinion is do or die. Trump is set to announce new tariffs as of April 2nd. If Trump decides to really lay down the tariffs and kick off a real trade war, markets will react in a manner of uncertainty. If in that same week, the Federal Reserve forecasts a lower GDP, a higher CPI, a decrease in forecast in employment, that could be the kick that takes the stool out from under the market. If you've made it this far, thank you for taking the time to consider my first publication. -ScG
AMEX:SPYShort
by ScG462
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rejecting The BreakdownDoes this big rejection bar mean the selling trend is over? I doubt it. In my opinion and experience, big rejection bars like this reflect a critical price level where the markets will attempt to REVISIT in the near future. Normally, when we get a big rejection bar, like today, we are testing a critical support/resistance level in price and you can see the difference between the SPY, DIA and QQQ charts. The QQQ price data is already below the critical support level and barely trying to get back above the rejection level. Whereas the SPY and DIA are still above the rejection lows. I see this as a technology driven breakdown and because of the continued CAPTIAL SHIFT, we may move into a broader WAVE-C breakdown of this current trend. I see the SPY already completing a Wave-A and Wave-B. If this breakdown plays out like I expect, we'll see a bigger breakdown in price targeting $525-535, then possibly reaching $495-505 as the immediate ultimate low. If you follow my research, there is a much lower level near $465-475 that is still a likely downward target level, but we'll have to see how price reacts over the next 2+ days before we can determine if that level is still a valid target. Watch for more support near recent lows tomorrow, then a potential breakdown in the SPY/QQQ/DIA. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 27 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
2
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 25 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1
House of Cards - $585 before the crashHouse of Cards - $585 before the crash I'm unable to update my previous idea that I originally posted in February when AMEX:SPY was at the top. Going to make this brief and will add screenshots and additional notes once the structure of Wave (B) is confirmed or invalidated. On the 500R chart ($5), the price has risen in a distinct 3-wave pattern labelled A-B-C, with C reaching the 1.236 extension of A and finding resistance at the 100SMA (yellow). The low of Wave (A) respected the boundary of the lower line of the regression trend I have added to the chart. While this trend started prior to what I am considering Wave (A), I still think it provides a good target for the top of the retracement. Wave (c) of A of (B) (still following me?) is not confirmed as complete yet. It could extend as far as $584 without pulling back, however I anticipate the market building more liquidity on the way up while burning options in the process. I bought 3/28 $570p at the end of the day in case we see a 50%-61.8% pullback to $560-$563 by the end of the week. If that happens, we should have enough room to reach the upper band at $585, which would be a little over a 50% retracement of Wave (A). This would also cause the price to touch the 200 SMA (green), which is common in the first major retracement of a bear market. Lastly, from a psychological perspective, the market reached an overwhelmingly bearish consensus from mid-February to mid-March. Sentiment during Wave (a) was mostly bearish, but sentiment has shifted positive since the price entered Wave (c) and gapped up on Monday, resulting in a >+1% day. This sets the stage for a rug pull and subsequent bear trap for late sellers who will assume the downtrend has resumed prematurely. We'll see how this plays out. I'll switch to calls if a higher high is made Wednesday 3/26. Good luck to all.
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
4
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 31 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1