SPY WEEKLY 2ND MAY 2025Welcome to Spy weekly. I have clearly discussed the price action. If you have any doubts, feel free to leave a comment or DM me.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT
SPY trade ideas
Spy.. The wedgesRemember this, when it comes to technical analysis, anything that goes up really fast form's a rising wedge most of the time and anything that drops quickly form's a falling wedge.
The Spy has risen 12% since April 21 and after this week i we will give half back and head to 533-535.
As you know market goes no where without tech..
So I'll just show you the proce action of the biggest tech sectors
AMEX:XLK
AMEX:XLC
NASDAQ:SMH
And lastly NASDAQ:QQQ
A big red flag in addition to that wedge is the RSI Divergence since April 23 shown on qqq 1hour rsi
Seeing Divergence is like noticing Ball tires; you don't know the exact date the tires will bust but you know it's coming and you just hope your aren't driving (In calls).
This is Qqq daily chart..
200sma purple line
Red line 20sma
We closed right below 200 day but we are 7% away from the 20sma.. qqq usually extended 4-5% from the 20sma before retesting it.
So long story short stay away from tech calls !
2 reasons I think the Spy can make another high this week.
1. Vix still has a gap to close at 21.50
Fallen wedge here, not surprising, vix pattern is usually opposite of spy. I think an explosive moves comes soon here
2. Dow jones , XLF and IWM have the April 2nd liberation day gap to close ..
The dow jones gap is 2% wide, that means another 800pts up. You ever seen the dow pump 800pts and the Spy not go up? Me neither
So I think unless Spy breaks back below 560 early in the week we could melt up to 572-575.
With no big tech earnings that pop up would likely come from FOMC wed..
Whatever intra week high the market makes, I don't think it will close near it.. what I mean is, let's say Spy spike to 572 wed I think we will close the week 560 or lower
Becareful Swinging calls, with all these tech sectors showing a rising wedge I'm sure some of these tech names reporting will disappoint.
Lots of low volume chop early in the week.. count me out until Wed
Bigger picture
Unless we break 530 we aren't headed to 510.. if we break below 510 then 495 will come.. below 495 is death
If we close the week above 585 somehow then we are headed back to 610
Lastly
Es 4hour chart
Cleanest look here. Yellow trendline represents higher lows.
When we break rising wedge I will short to Yellow trendline
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-30 : Moving Into FlaggingThis quick update video should help you understand how my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern could represent a move into FLAGGING within an inverted EPP pattern.
If my research is correct, the next move for the market will be a moderate downward price trend that will represent the FLAGGING portion of the inverted EPP pattern.
You've all see how bullish EPP patterns play out over the past 3 to 5+ months. Now we get to see how this recent SPY low near 480 turns into an inverted EPP pattern. This is basically the same pattern - but forming in an inverted mode.
As we transition through this inverted EPP pattern, what I'm looking for is a breakdown move to create the new FLAGGING formation. This move aligns perfectly with my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern and could be a perfect setup for the attempted "breaking of the Flag High" in late May 2025.
I'm watching Gold and Silver stay relatively strong today. So I'm seeing today's market move as a "reversion move" - not really a breakdown move (yet).
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
If the markets move into Flagging, as I expect, the big opportunities will be to ride the Flagging & Breakdown patterns over the next 30+ days before we move into either an INVALIDATION or CONTINUATION phase of the inverted EPP pattern.
Price is the ultimate indicator - you just need to know what to look for.
Get some.
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A perfect masterpiece - my final trade & mic dropHello friends. I have found the perfect trade, and I went all in with my entire account because my conviction is so high that I can say I'm 99.9% sure that I will be correct. I have never been this confident about a trade in my entire career to date.
I have purchased six figures in put contracts on the SPY and SPX because I can see that a crash is about to happen. Here are a few of the factors that I am looking at which have made me so confident.
1) Retail is frantically buying the dip as well as the rip, and they are almost always wrong & lose money. Meanwhile, smart money has been selling this whole time.
2) My wave theory shows a clear WXY pattern that has now been completed. We can't currently be in an impulsive wave to the upside because there is too much overlapping.
3) Trade deal is NOT coming soon. Polymarket predicts only 19% odds for a US-China trade deal to happen before June. The tariff situation does not look good, and it isn't priced in anymore as we have retraced the entire tariff dump already.
4) The market is currently trading far above liquidity based fair value, which has been plummeting in recent weeks indicating that a drop is bound to happen soon for risk prices. To reach the fair price, the SPY should trade about 30% lower than current prices. This gives us enormous room for a cascade to the downside.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-1 : Bottom-104Today's Bottom pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
Even though it may appear my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern will not happen as I expect - this is a very good lesson for traders.
I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Sometimes, the markets do things that are not aligned with my research/patterns and sometimes the markets can be far more irrational than traders expect.
For example, I believe this current rally is more of a speculative rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD. There is nothing I'm seeing in the Crash Index (or TRAN) to support this upward price move other than traders attempting to "buy the dip".
Ultimately, I believe the current contraction in the global economy based on policies, tariffs and economic disruptions will continue to drive a consolidation, basing type of price trend, traders are buying into this dip and attempting to drive price upward on expectations of a growing global economy.
Time will tell how things play out - but my longer-term modeling systems are still Bearish.
I will be on the road with my father today - so I'm not going to be as available to answer questions.
Watch this video twice if you need to. It will be interesting to see how the next 5+ days in the markets play out.
As I stated, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. I do my best to try to help guide all of you through these market trends with my research and cycle patterns - but, that is not enough to guarantee 100% accuracy on any trade.
That's just how it is in the world. No one is 100% perfect at predicting market moves.
Get some.
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If you think the 2025 bottom is in you couldn't be more wrongIf you think the bottom for 2025 is in and it's only up from here let me have what you're smoking.
Just a puff, please!
About 80% of social media retail traders are confidently calling a bottom, that's a major contrarian signal.
Herding equals danger!
If everyone is bullish, most are already positioned long leaving a few buyers to push prices higher.
It's known as "pain trade" where markets often move in the direction that causes the most discomfort.
Many of loudest voices are retail traders influencers chasing engagement, not portfolio managers or data driven strategists.
AMEX:SPY SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN
$SPY Bullish and Bearish TA signals, but leaning BullishShowing multiple time frames with different TA patterns--some harmonizing, while some are conflicting. When I put it all together the sum for me is slightly bullish.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week.
I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks.
I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days.
The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs.
I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth.
Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious.
Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment.
I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend.
Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations.
Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next.
I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June.
I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range.
Let's see how things play out this week.
Get some.
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SPY: Where to next? These are just my thoughts and opinions, not advice.
I forgot to mention in the video, Monday has a bearish forecast. If you pay attention to the Weekly forecast I share in the video, this is more similar to the bullish path (selling into Monday). :-O.
Bit of a longer video because lots to talk about.
Safe trades everyone!
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Max Profit: 5.13
ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04%
Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
SPY: Bear Market Rally Near Completion?Wavervanir DSS | April 30, 2025
SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point.
Bearish Targets:
$500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg)
$481.80 (prior low)
$431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension)
Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming.
Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in.
🧠 Macro Alignment
Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot).
Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks.
Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside.
📊 Probability Estimate
Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65%
Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25%
Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10%
⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal.
📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer.
🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated.
💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout?
#SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
Signs of a possible topBoth spy and vix reached a possible ending target today. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow but right now my feeling is either we topped or there will be one more final squeeze to 5600 tomorrow.
V-shaped Recovery SPY to 570-580 We formed a diamond bottom last week and had a false breakout to the downside that quickly turned bullish after it was revealed that Trump was just "trolling" when he mentioned wanting to fire Powell. Once we broke the soft 536 resistance we moved right to the downward trendline (drawn in yellow) hovered there briefly and then cracked through it.
We ended last week with a bullish engulfing on the weekly chart and spent these first 3 days at the high.
Good earnings kept the market bullish and in the last hour a mineral deal was signed with Ukraine.
The bears have little left in the tank, Tariffs look like they are going to be solved in the near future and fear is decreasing. Promising news on Ukraine is turning the wall of worry into a wall of excitement.
This is not feeling like a bear market rally, this is looking like the next phase of a bull market.
The decline trendline from march can be flipped to bullish and we are climbing steadily on that new line, this recovery is V shaped.
I expect resistance in the 570-580 range.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏛️ Fed Decision Day Amid Tariff Pressures
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies.
📈 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume
U.S. stock futures rose overnight on news of upcoming high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, marking the first discussions since the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with senior Chinese officials later this week.
🛢️ Oil Prices Rebound on Demand Hopes
Oil prices climbed as U.S. production declined and demand in Europe and China showed signs of recovery. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $62.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 0.74% to $59.53 per barrel.
💼 Key Earnings Reports Ahead
Several major companies, including Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO ), are scheduled to report earnings today. Investors will be watching these reports for insights into corporate performance amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, May 7:
2:00 PM ET: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit Report (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY - dump or bull market is back?hi traders,
Some months ago, we shared the idea where we explained that SPX will experience a correction:
The targets were reached, and next we saw a decent bounce, which is very well visible on the monthly candle.
Today, I see a lot of excitement about the monthly close, and many people call for a new all-time high soon.
I want to bring to your attention the monthly close in 2000.
It looks very similar to what we got yesterday.
A long, lower-shadow wick resulted in a bearish imbalance characterised by an excess of sellers, exerting downward pressure.
I still can see SPY/SPX retesting 570-580 levels, but it doesn't change the fact that lower levels may be tested in the next few weeks/months.
We got a bearish cross on the monthly time frame, which is not a joke.
If bears take control, I expect SPY to visit 460~ levels and later even lower: 410-408.
Long story short:
1. Short-term bounce may continue.
2. Mid-term - bears will take control, and we will see a bigger correction.
Do you agree? Share your opinion in the comments section
Where do we go from here ? Hint have a hedge on.We hit target 565 was looking a little higher
Lets see we get follow thru tomorrow down
Be prepared this market gonna sink
SPY will make new highs in coming weeks to monthsI decided to swap to the weekly view and found the 3 most bullish candlestick patterns all appearing in the month of April.
1st: Piercing Pattern:
This occurred on the week following Liberation day. The piercing pattern occurs when price closes above the midpoint of the prior weeks red bar after opening below the low of the previous week.
It signals that the price action was very emotional and reactionary, gapping below the low the a strong downtrend, it then signals that buyers were committed to recapture a majority of the price action. It also indicates that there may be trapped bears and short positions that were opened at the low, this can squeeze price higher.
2nd: Bullish Engulfing
This occurred the week last week. It is a classic pattern that signals to turn bullish. It occurs when the green bar fully engulfs the previous weeks red bar.
It signals that the price action was able to make a new low, this is important as similar to the piercing pattern it indicates there may be trapped bears/shorts who will be squeezed and forced to capitulate. It also indicates that the bulls were able to make new highs breaking out of the previous weeks range.
3rd: 3 Outside and up
This just occurred to end this week. It is a rare follow-up to the bullish engulfing, it is defined by a bullish engulfing that has a following week with a close strongly above the engulfing candles high.
It signals that the engulfing candle had commitment and follow-through, it signals that bears were unable to stop the trend and are at the point of capitulation. Many bullish engulfing patterns can lead to consolidation or weekly doji candles, or the less frequent reversals if bears are strong. the 3 Outside and up confirms that the bullish movement is strong.
This was a very difficult month to trade with a ton of traps, I expect there will be more traps and pullbacks to come, but the big picture is bullish.
SPY: Last week of April Hey everyone!
These are just my thoughts on SPY for next week.
Not advice of course.
Be safe and I hope you all have a great week!
Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me.
AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap.
Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA.
For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go?
There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like.
Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market.
The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement.
Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580.
…
This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant.
With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower.
I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us.
This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems.
I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available.
But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders.
Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were).
But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research.
Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos.
The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere.
Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits.
Get some.
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$SPY Trapped in a Bear Gap - May 2 2025 contract AMEX:SPY
How interesting that we traded completely within the bear gap yesterday .
First time above the 50 Day moving average in quite a while. 50 Day MA pointing us lower along with the 1hr underneath us.
Let’s go. Today’s Range looks like a fun way to close the week.
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 542.79
Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Spy $550 This WeekUpdated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563)
Scenario Projected Close Range Probability
Bull Case $570 – $577 40%
Base Case $558 – $566 45%
Bear Case $545 – $555 15%
🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577)
Conditions:
CPI data comes in cool (Thursday)
PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher
Fed speakers lean dovish
Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher
SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance
Fuel:
Short gamma squeeze above $565
Call wall shift to $570/$575
Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary
⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566)
Conditions:
CPI is in-line
Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses)
Market digests prior rally, stays elevated
No breakout — just holding range
Behavior:
SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP
Buyers hesitate near $565–$567
Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought
🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555)
Conditions:
CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall
Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide)
Yields spike, market pulls back fast
SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548
Fuel:
IV spike → volatility unwind
Bond market pressure → liquidity stress
Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP)
🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch):
CPI – Thursday, May 9
10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI
Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday)
Options flow around $565, $570 strikes
Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
