SPY After FOMC TA for 9/18/2024FOMC release, a few key points emerge for scalping the next day:
Price Levels:
Support Zones:
561.38: Strong area of support shown by volume shelf on the volume profile. Buyers have stepped in around this level, making it crucial for intraday scalping.
560.83: Another support level where substantial volume has accumulated.
Resistance Levels:
568.68: Marked as the high, which could act as the upper resistance. If SPY moves into a bullish momentum, this would be a key profit-taking zone.
Volume Profile: The volume profile shows heavy volume accumulation between 560-561, indicating consolidation around this area. A breakout or breakdown from this level will likely lead to stronger price movement.
Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI shows a bullish crossover near oversold conditions, indicating potential upside momentum for tomorrow. This aligns with SPY’s bounce during the FOMC session, suggesting that bulls are gaining some control.
FOMC Impact and Direction:
After FOMC announcements, SPY tends to be more volatile as traders digest the news. The current chart suggests a neutral to bullish bias heading into tomorrow. SPY bounced back from the 561 support, and if the momentum continues, the next key level to watch would be 565 and then 568.68 for potential breakouts.
Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: Around 563.50 - 564, which is close to the support/resistance flip area after the FOMC reaction. Use tighter stop losses to limit risk.
Exit 1: 565.50 - 566 (quick profit target if resistance holds).
Exit 2: 568.68 (if momentum is strong, this level could be tested).
Stop-loss: Below 561.50, to protect from downside volatility.
Bearish Scenario (if there's a gap down):
Entry: Around 561, just below the volume shelf. If SPY breaks below this zone, there could be a sharp sell-off.
Exit 1: 560.00, which is a psychological level, aligning with volume gaps.
Exit 2: 558.50, a lower level where buyers might step in.
Stop-loss: Above 564, to avoid whipsaw losses.
Thought Process:
Upside Momentum: Given the bullish crossover on the stochastic and the bounce from key support during the FOMC, it’s likely SPY will test 565+ levels, though this could depend on overnight futures and early morning sentiment.
Watch for Breakouts/Breakdowns: Pay attention to how SPY reacts around the 561-564 range for clearer direction tomorrow.
Use tight stops and react to price action as liquidity from FOMC can cause unexpected spikes or drops.
