SPY Bull on EX Div WeekSPY Bull on EX Div Week, and then on Friday dump as all stocks do on ex div date
SPY trade ideas
A Bullish Setup with Fair Value Gap in Play
Time to Tap Into the Reversal?
As we approach a critical juncture on SPY, the charts are presenting a fascinating opportunity for those tuned into price action and market structure. The recent price behavior suggests we may be at the cusp of a significant reversal, and a potentially bullish setup is starting to take shape. Let’s dive into why I believe SPY is primed to tap into the fair value gap (FVG) above, and why this may be the perfect time to look for long positions.
The Reversal Is in the Air
After a recent pullback, we’re seeing key technical indicators point toward a possible reversal. Price action has been testing critical support levels, and momentum is showing signs of slowing down, setting up the conditions for a bullish pivot. But what truly stands out here is the fair value gap (FVG) formed below the current price.
For those familiar with the concept, a fair value gap is an area where price has moved too quickly through a range, leaving an imbalance between buy and sell orders. These gaps often get filled as the market seeks to restore equilibrium.
Filling the Fair Value Gap – The Bullish Potential
Looking closely at SPY’s chart, we’re seeing the potential for price to either tap into the fair value gap below or close above it, signaling a strong move to the upside. If we see a push past recent resistance levels, this could trigger a gap fill on the bullish side, with price aiming for a higher target.
Here’s what we want to watch for:
Reversal Confirmation: A close above the current resistance level would confirm the potential for the bullish move. Look for a clean break and retest to validate the strength of the move.
Fair Value Gap Fill: As mentioned, price may want to fill the gap to restore equilibrium. If this occurs, it could serve as a solid entry point for long positions, with targets set to the upside.
Entry Strategy – Calls Look Attractive
Once the reversal is confirmed and the fair value gap is filled or cleared, it’s time to look for long positions. SPY has a history of making swift moves, and with momentum in our favor, a well-timed entry could provide solid returns. For those who prefer options, consider buying calls as an efficient way to tap into the bullish potential. Look for a strike price near the next significant resistance level to capitalize on the move, and make sure to manage risk appropriately with stop-loss levels.
What to Watch Next
Keep an eye on the following key levels:
Immediate Resistance: The first resistance area to watch will be around . A breakout above this level could signal the start of the bullish leg.
Fair Value Gap Zone: If SPY taps into the fair value gap, expect a pullback followed by a potential rise. The gap filling could set the stage for a more sustainable move upward.
Wrapping It Up
The current setup on SPY is compelling, and it’s important to stay vigilant as price action unfolds. With a potential reversal on the horizon and the fair value gap acting as a key technical level, the next move could be a strong one. Be ready to take advantage of the upside if we see a confirmation of this bullish shift.
As always, use proper risk management, and stay informed of any macroeconomic events that could influence market sentiment. Happy trading, and let's see where SPY takes us next!
GEX Analysis for SPY - December 13, 2024Current Price: $605.37
IVR: 8.1
IVx Average: 11.6
Options Sentiment: Bearish with 59.1% in Puts.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
* $608.00: CALL Resistance (Major resistance level).
* $609.00 - $610.00: 2nd CALL Wall, indicating a strong barrier.
Support:
* $605.00: HVL (1DTE Key level).
* $604.00: Highest Negative NETGEX / PUT Wall.
* $603.00 - $602.00: 2nd PUT Wall, highlighting downside targets.
Sentiment & Projection:
* SPY faces a challenging resistance at $608.00. A move above this level could target $610.00, but bearish sentiment remains dominant.
* Breaking below $605.00 could increase selling pressure toward $604.00 and $603.00.
Trading Strategies:
Bullish:
* Entry Above: $608.50 (Requires strong momentum).
* Target: $610.00.
* Stop Loss: $607.00.
Bearish:
* Entry Below: $605.00.
* Target: $604.00, $603.00.
* Stop Loss: $606.00.
Reminder:
Always monitor IVR and IVx for live updates to align with market conditions before executing trades.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Perform your own due diligence before trading.
SPY Bouncing in the Golden ZoneAMEX:SPY has pulled back to the most recent GZ. Looking for a bounce and continuation if it stays in/above this zone.
SPY going down until Bullish Fair Value Gap is Formed above 604Bearish Outlook on SPY
Title: Navigating SPY's Bearish Terrain: An Educational Insight
Introduction: In the world of trading, understanding market dynamics is crucial, much like the speculative nature of meme coins. This idea focuses on SPY's potential downside movement, drawing parallels to the educational approach used in identifying promising meme coins. Let's explore SPY's current market conditions and potential strategies.
Current Market Analysis:
Price Action: SPY closed at $604.68 on December 9, 2024. The market sentiment is currently negative, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.
Technical Indicators: Oscillators suggest a sell due to overbought conditions, while moving averages indicate a buy signal. This mixed outlook highlights the importance of a cautious approach.
Bearish Fair Value Gaps:
Key Levels: Two bearish fair value gaps have formed:
Gap 1: $607.22 to $606.47
Gap 2: $605.04 to $604.79
Strategy: Traders should monitor these gaps closely. If SPY respects these gaps, it could signal further downside movement. A bullish fair value gap forming above the most recent bearish gap could indicate a potential reversal.
Educational Insight:
Story and Narrative: Just as meme coins thrive on compelling stories, SPY's movement is influenced by broader market narratives. Understanding these stories can guide trading decisions.
Community and Sentiment: Engage with trading communities to gauge sentiment and gather insights. A strong community can provide valuable perspectives, much like in the meme coin space.
Option Strategy Recommendations:
Long Put Options: Consider long put options with strike prices aligned with the bearish gaps. This strategy leverages the potential downside while managing risk.
Conclusion: Navigating SPY's bearish terrain requires a blend of technical analysis and market awareness. By drawing parallels to the educational approach used in meme coin analysis, traders can enhance their understanding and strategy formulation. Remember, thorough research and a cautious approach are key to successful trading.
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction:
With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment:
Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns.
Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds.
Analysis:
Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities.
Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode.
What to Watch:
Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution.
Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities.
Conclusion:
The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance)
Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
Spy Short 3% CorrectionAlright Guys I Was About to drop all my short positions , but after looking at the bigger picture i can't!!! Its a short for me.. Be advised with the New Narrative Trend That's Out Right now with my Content, First Price Target For spy will be 600 and 2nd Target will be 595!!!
1st short target SPY $600
2nd short target SPY $595
QQQ 1st short target $520
QQQ 2nd short target $514
and always goodluck traders and Happy Holidays
SPY Wave % still in Progress target date forming The chart is the updated wave structure for the spy . if this is correct we should see a small shakeout in wave B of 5 . I will sit back in 100% cash and be Patient best of trades WAVETIMER
SPY Market Setup: Key Levels $ Options Strategy for Dec.12, 2024Overview of GEX Levels
* Resistance Levels:
* $609: GEX9 and 3rd Call Wall, representing strong resistance where sellers may emerge.
* $607: 2nd Call Wall and the highest positive NETGEX, marking a critical resistance level.
* Support Levels:
* $605: GEX7, providing a significant support level for pullbacks.
* $603: HVL (Highest Volume Level), a pivotal support zone. Holding above this level indicates bullish strength.
* $602: GEX support zone, with $601 acting as the final support level.
Options Oscillator Indicator Insights
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 6.6 (low volatility rank).
* Suggests subdued implied volatility, favoring non-directional strategies or narrow price ranges.
* IVx Avg: 11.5.
* Current implied volatility is near average levels, suitable for premium-selling strategies.
* Put$/Call$ Ratio: 45.9% skewed toward puts.
* Reflects bearish sentiment, with more traders hedging or positioning for downside risk.
Technical Setup
* SPY is trading within a tight range, with resistance at $607 and support near $605 and $603. A break above $607 could lead to a retest of $609, while a drop below $603 may open the door to bearish momentum toward $602 and $601.
Options Trading Strategy
* Bullish Play:
* Buy SPY Dec 15, 2024, $607 Calls if price breaks and holds above $607. Target: $609; Stop: $605.
* Neutral Play:
* Sell SPY Dec 15, 2024, $607 Calls and buy $610 Calls (credit spread) if price consolidates below $607, taking advantage of limited price movement.
* Bearish Play:
* Buy SPY Dec 15, 2024, $605 Puts if price falls below $603 with strong volume. Target: $602; Stop: $606.
Conclusion
SPY is consolidating near critical levels, with $607 acting as the key pivot for tomorrow's price action. Options sentiment and GEX levels suggest caution, with potential for both upside breakouts and downside pullbacks. Traders should focus on breakout or rejection signals around $607 and $603 for actionable setups.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Did this last night Spy to the Downside sort term Spy going down I marked price action out perfectly using lower time frames to trade and higher time frames to predict the moves. I then react. I use back past events trades.
$SPY #RisingWedge heading into CPLies (Truth this time?)CPI tomorrow, usually has been bullish tinder for the market, but perhaps new pres elect, new data?
Regardless, the technicals have spoken!
RISING WEDGE INTO CPI = BEARISH by the Book short term
600P for 12.11.2024 are high risk high reward play.
-Prophecies
PS: Probably gap back up by next week after market shake up/out...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-12: Breakaway PatternToday's video goes into detail related to the general SPY/QQQ trending and the continued potential for a price Anomaly Event.
It is likely that the markets continue a Santa Rally phase - attempting to push higher throughout the end of 2024 and into 2025.
I want everyone to understand that the anomaly event I keep suggesting may happen is an outlier event. It would be driven by some news, political, financial or other type of market event.
If that event does not happen, then the markets will likely continue to push higher and higher.
So, remember, the markets want to push higher into the typical Santa Rally. My Anomaly event would be a potential outlier event - driving a moderate pullback in price.
Gold and Silver should move into a moderate topping pattern today - possibly pulling downward a big. This would be a goo setup for the next rally phase higher. That rally may come tomorrow or into early next week.
Bitcoin is trapped within a consolidation range. The rally yesterday was nice to see, but right now we are seeing Bitcoin struggle below resistance. So, we still need to be cautious about rolling downward. Yet, the general trend for Bitcoin right now is upward.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Spy to the high side up we gospy to the top side New higher low based off everthing i see wwait on bullish fvg to form above the above the last bearish fear value gap
SPY = Beginning of the EndRapid rise to test the highs, and failing, is the long awaited key "failed three day test of the high." I now expect a decline over the next week or two followed by a larger "three week test of the high" Should that fail, then expect an intermediate to long term down cycle.
About time. in rarified air up here.
SPY dropping next few days Aiming for SPY to either consolidate and make a range for tomorrow 12/12/24 and then friday slowly drop and continue to drop monday and go back to the longterm bullishness
SPY Technical Analysis and Options Strategy with GEX GammaGamma Levels and Observations Using GEX Profile:
The GEX Profile provides critical insights into the underlying price action by identifying gamma-related support and resistance zones. Here's a breakdown of the key levels derived from the GEX indicator:
1. Resistance Levels:
* 610: Significant call gamma resistance. Price movement above this zone often requires increased buying pressure as market makers adjust their hedging positions to counterbalance gamma exposure.
* 605: A pivotal resistance level where SPY struggled to break above. This area caps bullish momentum as market makers' hedging activities intensify to maintain stability.
2. Support Levels:
* 600: A major put gamma support level. This zone tends to attract buying activity because market makers may adjust their hedging positions to provide stability as the price approaches.
* 595: The next gamma-supported area below 600. This level acts as a secondary buffer, absorbing selling pressure as gamma exposure decreases.
Price Action and Gamma Interaction:
* Today’s price action showed a clear respect for the 600 gamma support, reflecting increased hedging activities by market makers. This level stabilized the price as it approached, attracting buying interest.
* On the upside, 605 gamma resistance acted as a ceiling, showing stabilization from market makers' hedging adjustments. A break above this level may indicate reduced hedging pressure and a bullish shift.
Options Strategy Plan:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Strategy: Vertical Call Spread
* Setup:
* Buy the 605 Call.
* Sell the 610 Call.
* Target: Profit from a move toward 610.
* Risk Management: Close the position if SPY drops below 600.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Strategy: Vertical Put Spread
* Setup:
* Buy the 600 Put.
* Sell the 595 Put.
* Target: Gain from a decline toward 595.
* Risk Management: Exit if SPY reclaims 605.
3. Range-Bound Scenario:
* Strategy: Iron Condor
* Setup:
* Upper Range: Sell the 605 Call, Buy the 610 Call.
* Lower Range: Sell the 600 Put, Buy the 595 Put.
* Target: Profit from SPY staying between 600 and 605.
* Risk Management: Adjust or close the trade if the price moves outside the range.
Selecting the Best Expiration Date for Options:
1. Short-Term Trades:
* If you anticipate a quick move (1-3 days), use weekly options (closest expiration) to benefit from higher delta sensitivity and lower upfront costs.
* For instance:
* Bullish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 605/610 Call Spread.
* Bearish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 600/595 Put Spread.
2. Medium-Term Trades:
* If you expect the move to play out over 1-2 weeks, select options expiring 7-14 days out. This helps balance theta decay with enough time for the move to develop.
* Example:
* Bullish: Buy the 605 Call Spread expiring next Friday.
* Bearish: Buy the 600 Put Spread expiring next Friday.
3. Hedging or Longer-Term Views:
* For broader market hedging or if you're less certain about timing, use monthly options (15-45 days out). These allow time for the trade to develop and reduce the impact of time decay.
* Example:
* Buy the 610 Call (bullish) or the 595 Put (bearish) expiring in the next monthly cycle.
Projection:
* Bullish Case: SPY breaks above 605, targeting 610 with momentum-driven buying. Reduced selling pressure above this level may support further upside.
* Bearish Case: Failure to hold 600 could drive SPY toward 595, as hedging activities intensify to counter selling momentum.
Hedging Explained in Context:
Gamma hedging impacts price movements significantly. Market makers adjust their positions based on gamma exposure:
* At positive gamma levels like 605, market makers sell into strength, stabilizing price movements. This creates resistance.
* At negative gamma levels like 600, market makers buy into weakness, supporting the price and reducing volatility.
These dynamics allow traders to anticipate where market makers might influence price action.
Trading Plan for Tomorrow:
1. Bullish Approach:
* Look for a sustained move above 605 with increased volume.
* Target: 610.
* Stop-loss: Below 603.
2. Bearish Approach:
* Watch for a break below 600 with strong selling pressure.
* Target: 595.
* Stop-loss: Above 602.
3. Neutral Strategy:
* If price consolidates between 600 and 605, consider range-bound strategies like an iron condor.
Disclaimer:
This technical analysis and options strategy are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Options trading carries significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
Spy ShortSpy 597-600
Qqq 514-517
If we are not on path to hitting these levels by Tuesday Wednesday Open I Will Reconsider prolonging my short and just exit the market , To reinter my short at a better time I will Not be going long what so ever at this time will update Mondaay Open!! GoodLuck Traders
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-11: Flat Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will slide downward after the CPI data came in as expected.
I believe the markets are going to roll into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the next 5+ days - setting up a big potential downward price swing (the Anomaly Event) before the end of 2024.
Gold is moving into a CRUSH pattern today. We may see a very big price move (I suspect higher) today as traders move to hedge weakness and market concerns globally.
Bitcoin recently set a new lower low, showing us that the dominant trend is Bearish.
Bitcoin set up another potential Excess Phase Peak pattern, totaling four current Excess Phase Peak patterns in this broad sideways consolidation range.
The breakout, either to the upside or downside, in Bitcoin could be very explosive.
Remember, we continue to trade into a low liquidity price trend throughout the end of 2024. So stay cautious and stay aware of the risks for the Anomaly Event.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY December 11, 2024AMEX:SPY December 11, 2024
15 Minutes.
Short still on.
For the last fall 606.44 to 602.14 61.8% retracement is 604-605 levels.
I expect resistance on retracement around those levels.
Since price below 200 averages downtrend intact in 15 minutes time frame.
On downside 599- 600 is a good level to cover short.
It is also 100 averages in 60 minutes time frame
Small Pull Back Starting Watch 575-600 Load Up To 620 New YearOk guys the pull back starting
keep eye on IWM and the 10 year
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - SPY Bull FlagSPY filled its gap right before close and looks good for a bounce here if you ask me. If it does bounce tomorrow I'll be looking for a break and retest of the bull flag for a move up to ATH. Downside targets would be $602.50 and $600. $600 would be an enticing long, but starts to look more bearish if it breaks below.
SPY Analysis: Will the S&P 500 Break Support or Rebound?Technical Analysis
Price Action Breakdown:
* Today’s Performance: SPY experienced a bearish session, breaking below key support levels around $608 and testing $604 by the end of the day.
* Support and Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: $609.07 and $612.00 are key overhead levels to watch.
* Support: Immediate support lies at $604.35, with a critical level at $597.25.
Indicators:
* MACD: The MACD shows bearish momentum, with the histogram declining and the signal line below the MACD line.
* Moving Averages:
* SPY has broken below the 50-period moving average, signaling weakness.
* The 200-period moving average is acting as support near $595.
Trendlines and Channels:
* Descending Trendline: A short-term downtrend is forming, with SPY unable to reclaim higher highs from last week.
Liquidity Zones and Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zone: Strong liquidity is observed between $608 and $604, suggesting institutional activity at these levels.
Scenarios:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY reclaims $608, it may retest $609 and move toward $612.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* A break below $604 could lead to a test of $597 and potentially lower levels at $595.
Trading Plan
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry Points:
* Long: Above $608 with a target of $609 and $612.
* Short: Below $604 with a target of $597.
* Stop Loss:
* For long trades, place a stop loss at $606.
* For short trades, use $606 as a stop.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Outlook: Accumulate SPY if it closes above $608, targeting $612.
* Bearish Outlook: Short positions can be initiated below $604, with targets of $597 or $595.
Risk Management:
* Maintain a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:3.
* Limit exposure to 2% of capital per trade.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research before trading.
SPY should go up tomorrow ....I am using the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as I find you can see a definite directional pattern with them on the chart itself. Typically, you should wait until you see two green candles, but if you look at some of the indicators on the 6 hour chart, you can see that it is indicating a bullish move. The 7 hour and daily indicators should follow soon. (I will post these hourly charts following this idea)
After the US election last month, the market shifted a little in the amount of days the SPY went up. In the month of November, the market only went up about 7 days but it did hit an upward move of 32 points and the Fibonacci number. I believe the market was shifting in November to get ready for the US Thanksgiving and Christmas as well as other upcoming events such as the Fed Meeting in December and other events in the January.
The SPY will go up until about Nov 25th before moving sideways for a few days while US Thanksgiving is nearing. After US Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the market will continue to go up until Dec. 9 to 11th which is about a 12 to 14 day move using the green Heikin Ashi candlesticks. This was the typical length of time of the move of the previous months with the exception of November.
In the last few months, I have observed that the up trend goes up between 12 to 14 days. So I will be out by Dec 10th.
If the market hits the 1.619 Fibonacci, which is about 609, I am out.
The SPY has been usually moving about 32 points per month on average. If it hits a 32 point upward move (616), I will be out. (but it will hit the 1.619 Fibonacci line before it hits the 32 point move)
I believe the SPY will go up for the month of December and January before going down in February. I have been noticing that the market goes up for about 3 months before having a more of a downward trend in the fourth month. The market should technically go down after the middle of January and for approximately a month. During that time, the market may shift a little in time. (I am looking forward to that month to learn more.)
If you look at the indicators on the 6 hour charts, specifically the DMI, Stochastic RSI, and the MacD, you can see that they are starting to shift to indicate a bullish move. Typically, I used the half hour, the hourly and the four-hour chart indicators to confirm that this is indeed a bullish move. I need all those indicators to align to confirm a trend. I only trade with the strength of the trend not the retractions. And typically (not always) I wait for at least 2 green Heikin Ashi candles to confirm trend before I enter. These are my rules that I follow.
As I have said in my previous charts, I find the 5 minute indicators show what will happen in the next half hour, the 10 minute indicators show what will happen in the next hour, the half hour indicators show what will happen in the daily charts and the hour indicators will show what will happen over the next few days. (My opinion, not fact)
I trade simple ... if I can't see the trade in a few simple steps, then this is not the trade for me.
Also, I explain my trades in more detail for me, not for you. Repetition is the key for me. If I repeat it over enough in my head, it will more likely stick.
Happy Trading everyone!!! :-)
And here's to making oodles of money or at least learning something if you don't.
