$SPY $QQQ etc. Bearish trendDownward megaphone, markets built a bear flag since Black Monday's drop. Perhaps we will see $500 AMEX:SPY next, finally!
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days.
If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week.
Watch the video I created this morning to learn more.
This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY -Are you seeing what I'm seeing?I know , SPY is oversold but technically this is what I'm seeing. Probably 500 is for sure but 518 should break for it to be possible.
Watch me read and trade the market like youve never seen before.Long video but WELL worth the watch if you're trying to learn how I do what I do. In this video I walk through every candle on a 1 minute chart prior to the impending drop - and I explain how and why I am expecting the drop.
There is simply no other way to read the market with this much certainty and confidence! And whatever I do here on the 1 minute chart can be identically correlated to the 5 min, 15 min, 1HR, 1D, 1M, etc. All time frames work together and it's important to use them all to tell the story and pick the best entries.
Feel free to ask questions in the comments or let me know if you found this helpful, cool, or anything!
Happy Trading :)
Crash energy again Short SPY biglyI'm in a hurry here. I get high today, crash action within a day and target 15% down. SPY shouldn't get above $533.
This lines up with messages a long time ago suggesting the market gives back almost the entire rally, so we'll see.
SPY: Dead Cat Bounce? D&W Charts.After reaching a critical turning point, the SPY seems to be trying to react, and we see a decent recovery.
In previous studies, we successfully identified the top signal on the weekly chart, the featured Bearish Engulfing, which culminated in a sharp drop to the support point at $510. The link to our latest public study here on TradingView is below this post.
Now, we see that the price has left some gaps on the daily chart, and the first of them was closed yesterday, which makes it an Exhaustion Gap, one of the four types of gap.
In theory, the SPY should recover in the medium term, but we don't yet see a reversal chart structure suggesting a change in sentiment. For now, SPY is still making downward tops and bottoms, and is still below the 21-day EMA, so we need to stay alert, as it is still a bear trend, despite the short/mid-term bullish outlook.
I'll keep you updated.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
All the best,
Nathan.
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY ShortPlaying the relief bounce bear flag AMEX:SPY , would like to see lower volume into tomorrow and distribution into the 538-541 area then swing weekly puts
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : SPY Settles - Gold RalliesThis video highlights what I believe will be the best opportunities for the SPY/QQQ over the next 7+ trading days while highlighting how Gold is setup for a dual-leg rally phase (possibly moving up above $2550) over the next 7+ days.
My continued efforts to deliver pertinent and actionable trade data to my followers are based on the concept that "I do the research—you make all the decisions."
I'm not trying to tell you what to do or when to trade. I'm just showing you what I see on the charts using my skills and understanding of advanced price theories and technical analysis. If it helps you out - perfect. If not, then forget about my research and move on to something/someone else.
Overall, my real objective is to provide very high-quality content (it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong—I'll stand by my research/data every day).
Today's video is very important. Please understand there are two or three big setups taking place in the SPY/QQQ and Gold over the next 7 to 10+ days.
If my research is correct, this is a wonderful time to plan/prepare for these big moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024AMEX:SPY Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024
Ok. Last night I feel asleep without getting the second part of my video done. I have been exHAUTed this past week but next week I will have more energy and a lot of sleep is on the books for me.
So today’s implied move is between 514-540
Tomorrow’s implied move 511-532
To the upside, look out to the 35EMA on the 30min timeframe. Look for signs of support and if we get above it than the target to the upside today on the day is 530. The 4hr 200MA is at the very top of the implied move and it smacked us down yesterday. At the top of the trading range we have the rest of that bear gap from the gap we opened the week with.
To the downside, we have a bull gap from yesterdays gap up, the bottom of that gap is at 5186, and then the bottom of the implied move for today is 517.
The WEEKLY 35EMA is our support and it’s just outside of the implied move and within tomorrow’s implied move.
SPY next leg down. We’ve been in an upward channel for 2 days now. Last night looked like we’d leg down but this morning looks like we’ll open at the top. 529-530 looks like top here. I’ll wait for opening but I wouldn’t Be surprised if trapped long liquidate here if it holds. Everyone long should
Head for the door.
$SPY August 7,2024AMEX:SPY August 7,2024
15 Minutes
Buy above 524 was triggered. Closed the trade around 528 levels around 100averages.
Now for the rise 514.9 to 529.75 AMEX:SPY has retraced 50% to 522 levels.
So today holding 520 levels we can expect a target for 529 to 533 levels.
On reverse, i will sell below 518 for 511 range.
August 6th Lesson about emotionsToday I lost $150 with two emotional trades. I am better than that and I know what I did wrong.
SPY Mirroring 2007 12% Correction Pre-GFCThe price action in SPY today mirrors the 12% correction in SPY in July - Oct 2007 pre-GFC market crash. Targeting $495-$500 on SPY as a near-term bottom after a quick pop up to $530-$535 in SPY. Then possibly rebound from $500 back to all time-highs, but if we fall through the floor, then we should see $400 on SPY.
SPY: Not done dropping just yet.Chart is forming a bear flag with many oscillators pointing to more downsides.
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic?
Understanding the Economic Data
Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession.
In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time.
Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern.
Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around.
With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves.
Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets.
Understanding the Market Trends
While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound.
The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts.
The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell.
The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk.
This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy.
Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation.
Concluding Thoughts
While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further.
Watch this video to learn more.
The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP.
Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gap Fill or Reject?The market's tendency is to gap fill, but we can also use the gap areas as potential rejection levels. My approach here is simple, I plan to short the market as we approach and/or reach these gap areas, and I will maintain very tight criteria for my stop loss to avoid getting caught up in a reversal.
SPY: End of Wave 4SPY is coming to the end of an ABC correction in Wave 4, which will lead to final Wave 5 at or around 500. Look for a final few sessions of selling into the weekend, then we will get a larger Wave 2 (ABC) to fill the gaps that were created at 530 and 541.
08/06 SPY ATR Levels and RangeLooking for these ATR levels, volume, price action and technical confluence to make decisions. Seems like its a waiting on your hands kind of day, honestly I think once the Olympics is over and citizens return to their countries, something on a GEO scale may happen, thats my speck on this. Otherwise Harris to drop her VP choice, the debate is still on schedule, the tensions over seas is still building. The only report I see on the table is the 11:00 AM Total Household Debt Q2. Not sure how impactful that will be on things. My overall feeling is neutral at the moment. I like to see what the market does and reacts before making any type of move or decision. ATR on spay is 6.48, again, A larger number than the last 6 months of this year. I suspect and caluculate that due to the massive selloffs that have been taking place all over.
SCALP
SR2 521.67
SR1 520.83
SPOP 520.00
LAST PRICE 519.16
SBREAK 518.32
SS1 517.49
SS2 516.65
STANDARD
R2 527.52
R1 524.30
POP 522.38
LAST PRICE 519.16
BREAK 515.98
S1 513.44
S2 511.75
There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are up a bit and will open up a bit if it remains like this. Will still be kind of okay looking though, around lower BB.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Aug 6. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was last week! The time before that was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
From the low of Aug 6 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 9 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 9 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 20 (right yellow circle)
Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up as that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). More like if we get a bounce, it goes down again like this it'll be that time.
Last week I wasn't very optimistic about it (and it didn't happen anyway). This time it's still pretty high, but QQQ is in sync with SPY which means both can go up together now which is a little something.
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
$SPY Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thAMEX:SPY Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th
Volatility is back. Tomorrow's Trading range is WIDE.
Bad and Good trade examles what went on in my head todayI describe some of my loses and bad trades today and point out a trade that made sense.
