$SPY | Catch The KnifeRSI Divergence
Significant structure to left
Invalidation around 574--trade below and will need to reconsider longs
Until then I like the long scalp
Have SPY put hedges that will close and swap for calls
SPY trade ideas
SPY CORRECTION END 2024 - 2025As we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. SPY broke bullish structures in 2-hour and 4-hour timeframes, and we should recover the daily channel to maintain an upward movement in the daily timeframe.
Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, SPY rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, 4 horas y deberiamos recuperar el canal de la diaria para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de la diaria.
SPY at a Critical Juncture: Will it Reversal or More Pain Ahead?In the past two days, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has experienced a pronounced downturn, raising critical questions about the next directional move. Today's price action indicates a pivotal moment, with the market consolidating near a key support level at $584. The question remains: is this a pause before a bounce, or a precursor to further downside?
This detailed analysis breaks down SPY's current technical setup, provides actionable trade levels, and offers insights into potential scenarios for tomorrow's session. Let’s dive into the charts and indicators to uncover opportunities.
Technical Market Trend Analysis
1. Downtrend Confirmation
* Price Structure: SPY has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows over the past two sessions, clearly defining a downtrend. The breach of the critical $587 support level early in today’s session amplified selling pressure.
* Trendlines: A descending channel on the hourly chart below further confirms bearish control, with price respecting the upper boundary of the channel as resistance.
2. Volume Dynamics
* Selling Pressure: Noticeable volume spikes during the declines highlight strong participation by sellers.
* Reduced Buying Interest: Rebounds were marked by lower volume, indicating a lack of commitment from buyers.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels
1. $584: The current zone where price consolidates. This is the first line of defense for bulls.
2. $580: Major gamma exposure support level (GEX7). Breaching this level could accelerate downside momentum toward $575.
Resistance Levels
1. $587: Immediate resistance. A reclaim of this level would signal strength and could trigger short covering.
2. $590: Aligned with gamma resistance and psychological significance, this is the next target for a bullish breakout.
Indicators in Play
EMA Analysis
* The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are both sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance levels. This reinforces the short-term bearish trend.
MACD
* The hourly MACD shows bearish momentum, with a widening histogram and a negative crossover. However, a slight tapering in the histogram near the end of the session hints at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt.
Options Oscillator and GEX Insights
* Gamma Levels:
* $584: Current pivot, showing strong put positioning.
* $580: Heavy put support; any break below this would likely see rapid downside.
* $590: Significant call resistance; a breakout above would indicate a shift in sentiment.
* Sentiment: Dominance of 102.7% puts reflects bearish sentiment in the options market.
Trading Strategy
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
1. Entry: Enter long above $587 with confirmation of strong volume.
2. Target: $590 for the first target, $593 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585 to minimize risk.
4. Justification:
* Reclaiming $587 would signal a potential reversal or at least a relief rally.
* $590 aligns with gamma resistance, offering a logical profit target.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Setup
1. Entry: Short below $584 with increasing sell volume.
2. Target: $580 for the first target, $575 for the second.
3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585.50 to cap risk.
4. Justification:
* A breakdown below $584 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
* Heavy put support at $580 would likely provide the next pause point.
Market Outlook
While the short-term trend is bearish, the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s session will likely determine whether SPY bounces from oversold conditions or continues its descent. Watch for high-impact news and volume trends to validate directional moves.
Conclusion
SPY’s price action reflects a decisive moment. Both bulls and bears have clear opportunities depending on how the key levels at $584 and $587 play out. Use disciplined risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys,
Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share!
So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see.
So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second.
So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank.
So what is going on?
Fundamentals
The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper.
This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold.
The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation.
Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower.
This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money!
2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits.
PE ratios
I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here...
Now for the Math
If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video:
In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective.
Stage 1: Cubic Correation
This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%.
Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563.
These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs.
Stage 2: Quartic Correction
If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction.
This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away.
In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/
This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes".
Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle
In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means.
Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477.
Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle.
Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself).
So what does this mean for you the trader?
It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean.
However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means.
Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it.
Will we go lower than the cubic mean?
Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found.
How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means?
This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period.
We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean.
I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/.
So where should we be looking to buy?
If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means.
If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;).
Will it happen quicky?
The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers.
Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week.
How do we know if it will go lower?
In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up.
Summary
So kudos to you if you read this long!
Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made.
For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it.
Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants.
The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets.
Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now.
Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
$SPY December 20, 2024AMEX:SPY December 20, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected base being formed after brutal fall.
Still in downtrend as below all moving averages.
We can see oscillator divergence.
We have multiple hits around 586 levels.
If break. i see more 10$ downside towards 576 levels.
To test 100 average support 240 minutes chart.
No longs. Yet.
The markets aren't DEAD yet! Stock Market Analysis 🚨 Stock Market Analysis🚨
In this video we will be going over:
-What happened on the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
-FOMC Meeting and Chair Powell's Speech
-Economic outlook and recent numbers
-Technical Analysis
When in doubt ZOOM OUT! 👇
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again.
I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward.
Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening.
I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend.
Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now.
Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern.
$95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Should turn lower in 5 wavesSpy had an impulsive move to the downside and has bounced overnight, im looking for one more low to complete 5 waves.. Lets see
SPY One leg lowerSpy had an impulsive move to the downside and has bounced overnight, im looking for one more low to complete 5 waves with divergence... Lets see
$SPY December 19, 2024AMEX:SPY December 19, 2024
15 Minutes.
The breakdown below 598 was expected to be bad. But this was brutal.
Chart completely messed up.
Needs days to align again.
There was a 30$ difference in daily between 9- and 100-day averages. Hence, I was very hesitant in going longs.
No trade day today for me.
Any retracement up to 598 is a sell.
As can be seen all bars had close near bottom. Very rare to get chart like this.
$SPY ChatGPT's predicted 12/19 Move Per chatGPT
www.tradingview.com
Considering the anticipated GDP report and its potential impact on market sentiment, here are three scenarios for SPY’s intraday high and low:
1. Best-Case Scenario:
• High: $600
• Low: $585
Assumption: The GDP report exceeds expectations, indicating robust economic growth, which boosts investor confidence and leads to a market rally.
2. Moderate Scenario:
• High: $590
• Low: $580
Assumption: The GDP report aligns with forecasts, suggesting steady economic conditions. The market reacts with cautious optimism, resulting in moderate price movements.
3. Worst-Case Scenario
• High: $580
• Low: $570
Assumption: The GDP report falls short of expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown. This triggers investor concern, leading to a market sell-off and lower SPY prices.
Note: These scenarios are hypothetical and depend on various factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, and broader economic indicators.
No One Good Trade Today: Here is A Quick Market BreakdownWe saw major volatility in the market yesterday. This is not something that we could have predicted. It is our job to be on the right side of the market today and moving foward after this move. In my morning overview yesterday, I talked about about how the federal reserve would cut but, likely not cut into 2025. Apparently, this was not common knowledge and it scared markets.
Bearish 5% or 8% ?The previous two correction cycles lasted about one month, with a correction of approximately 6% and 8%. How much will this one be?
SPY 15m Analysis: FVGs and Key Levels for Next MovesOverview
This idea focuses on the SPY 15-minute chart, highlighting key fair value gaps (FVGs) and critical support/resistance levels. The current price action shows potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios, contingent on price reactions at crucial levels.
Bearish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
If SPY closes below 566.44, it signals further downside momentum. Traders should look for the formation of the next Bearish FVG to initiate short positions.
Projected Target:
First Target: 550–555 zone (likely demand zone or support area).
Downward momentum is supported by the recent sharp sell-off, indicating heavy selling pressure.
Invalidation:
A sustained move back above 588.85 will weaken bearish momentum.
Bullish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
For any upward momentum, a Bullish FVG must form above the current price, likely in the 588.85–595.79 range.
Projected Target:
First Target: 595.79
Second Target: 600+, where stronger resistance may emerge.
Invalidation:
Failure to hold above 588.85 could result in further selling pressure.
Volume and Momentum Considerations
While individual candlestick volume isn't displayed, the rapid decline hints at increased selling pressure. Monitor volume closely during retests for confirmation of strength or weakness in price action.
Plan Your Trade:
Use clear invalidation levels to manage risk.
Wait for price confirmation (e.g., closing below 566.44 or a bullish FVG forming above 588.85).
Utilize stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected reversals.
Conclusion
This setup allows for flexibility, focusing on key zones and volume confirmation. The bias leans bearish, but a bullish retracement cannot be ruled out if price action shifts momentum. Keep an eye on FVG formations for entry signals.
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones.
Market Structure Analysis
* Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction.
* Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase.
* Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce).
* Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts).
Order Blocks and Support/Resistance
* Key Resistance:
* $591: A psychological and structural level.
* $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level.
* Key Support:
* $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572.
* $567: A crucial lower-level support.
Key Indicators
* EMA:
* 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum.
* MACD:
* Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative.
* RSI:
* Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce.
Options Flow and GEX
* Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong.
* Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping:
* Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578.
* Swing Trading:
* Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short-Term Bullish:
* Entry: Near $580 support.
* Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance.
* Stop-Loss: Below $578.
2. Short-Term Bearish:
* Entry: On rejection at $590.
* Exit: Target $580 or lower.
* Stop-Loss: Above $592.
Conclusion
SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
$SPY - Will the right shoulder form?AMEX:SPY It's still too early, but there's a chance this could develop into a head and shoulders pattern.
Will the right shoulder form?
SPY 65 MinutesNeed to recapture 590 or we dial 911.
Looking at 65 minute timeframes, seems to me that we need to get 590 by friday so the bull parade gets going
SPY GETS FROTHY
We might see all post election gains erased before year end, are you a BULL or a BEAR...... is the Santa rally over?! What say you?
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view.
The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈
The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔
🔍 **What’s driving the move?**
- 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer.
- 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts.
- ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations.
📊 **Why It Matters?**
- If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀
- A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉
👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?**
Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level.
SPY 2 year trend channel levels:
resistance = 605
pivot = 585
support = 565
trade ideas:
1) collar strategy
hold 100 shares
sell 585 call
buy 605 put
2) buy 605 put
3) short call spread
sell 585 call
buy 605 call
4) long put spread
buy 605 put
sell 585 put
SPY options data:
12/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 219,329
Call Volume Total 125,297
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75
Put Open Interest Total 750,130
Call Open Interest Total 233,054
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22
12/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 69,042
Call Volume Total 43,893
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57
Put Open Interest Total 317,687
Call Open Interest Total 228,869
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39
12/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 336,702
Call Volume Total 139,171
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42
Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537
Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29
12/27/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 13,062
Call Volume Total 14,931
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87
Put Open Interest Total 72,224
Call Open Interest Total 59,538
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21
1/17/25 LEAPS
Put Volume Total 191,268
Call Volume Total 63,574
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01
Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812
Call Open Interest Total 855,976
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 2-Hour Time Frame Analysis Current Current Market Overview
As of December 2024, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is showing a bullish trend with the following technical indicators:
MACD : Suggests a buy signal.
RSI : Indicates a neutral signal.
Moving Averages: Both 20-day and 50-day moving averages suggest a buy signal.
Price Action: The support level is at US$600.96, and the resistance level is at US$607.46.
Options Strategy Recommendations
1. Long Call
trade_id: g-663257
Signal: Bullish
Option Strategy: Long Call
Current Price: US$605.57
Strike Price: US$550.00
Expiry Date: 20-Dec-2024
Buy/Sell: Buy
Call/Put: Call
Premium: US$55.46
Stop loss: US$49.91
Take profit: US$61.01
Probability of Profit: 51.4%
Implied Volatility: 96.81%
Max Loss: US$-5546.00
Max Gain: ∞ (infinity)
Break-even price: US$605.46
Days to Expiration: 2
Rationale: This strategy is designed to capitalize on a bullish outlook for SPY, with a high probability of profit and a defined risk-reward profile.
Conclusion
The SPY is currently in a consolidation phase, and the recommended options strategy provides an opportunity to capitalize on potential bullish market movements. The Long Call offers a high probability of profit with defined risk, allowing for profit from significant price movements in the upward direction.
