SPY trade ideas
$SPY December 18, 2024AMEX:SPY December 18, 2024
15 Minutes.
Downtrend intact.
AMEX:SPY below 50,100 and 200 averages.
Any pull back to 605-606 levels will be shorted.
My Initial target is 600 which is also 200 averages in 60 minutes.
I will go long at the moment only above 608 levels.
Morning Overview: FED Decision W/ Sticky InflationThe FED is set to make a decision on interest rate cuts todays. The market has them priced in already and I doubt the FED wants to surprise markets. Going forward into 2025 I don't think they cut in Q1 for this reason.
This video covers:
* patterns in tech stocks that resemble some climatic activity.
* patterns in consumer stocks
* Trades I currently in
* One Good Trade series trades
* Possible setups for today
Spy Looks Bullish With a 15min bullish FVG forming S&P 500 (SPY) Price Action Analysis
Current Price and Technical Overview
Current Price: $605.28 (as of last close on 17-Dec-2024)
Market Status: Closed
Day Change: +$0.99 (+0.16%)
Technical Analysis Summary
Overall Signal: Bullish
Oscillators: Predominantly 'Hold', with the Momentum Indicator suggesting a 'Buy'.
Moving Averages: Strong bullish signals from short-term and medium-term averages.
Pattern: Breakout above resistance indicates a bullish trend.
Resistance Level: Potential price target near $608.65.
Pivot Point Analysis: Price is above the pivot level of $606.59, supporting bullish sentiment.
News Sentiment
Sentiment: Entirely positive, likely to drive buying activity and support upward price movement.
Interpretation
The technical indicators for SPY suggest a bullish stance. The strong signals from moving averages and the breakout above resistance levels indicate potential for further gains. The positive news sentiment reinforces this outlook, suggesting a likelihood of price appreciation in the near term.
Trading Strategy Consideration
Given the bullish outlook, traders might consider entering long positions or call options on a retest of the pivot level at $606.59, aiming for the next leg up towards the resistance level of $608.65. However, it's crucial to monitor for any signs of reversal or changes in sentiment that could impact this strategy.
SPY Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX Analysis for Dec. 181. Daily Chart (1D)
* Trend: SPY is trading within a well-established upward channel. The price recently hit resistance at the upper channel line (~609), suggesting overbought conditions.
* Support Levels:
* 590: Key short-term support, aligned with the lower EMA support.
* 577-571: Major support zone; a breakdown here signals a bearish shift.
* Resistance:
* 609-610: Upper trendline resistance. SPY has failed to hold above this range.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence forming as momentum weakens while price pushes higher.
* Volume: Strong volume uptick at recent highs, suggesting possible distribution.
Bias: The daily chart signals caution, with a potential pullback to 602-604 (middle channel) or further to 590.
2. Hourly Chart (1H)
* Price Action: SPY shows rejection from the upper resistance (~609) and is trending downward towards key intraday support at 602-603.
* Support/Resistance:
* Support: 602 (highest PUT Wall in GEX), 604 (confluence of EMA and PUT Wall).
* Resistance: 607-608 (CALL resistance).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover; momentum remains negative.
* Trendlines: SPY is testing lower channel support on this timeframe.
Bias: SPY is likely to remain range-bound between 603-607 for now. A break below 602 could accelerate downside pressure.
3. GEX Analysis
* Key GEX Levels:
* 607: CALL Resistance (1.25%). Likely an upper cap.
* 603: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support. This level is critical; breaking below it increases bearish momentum.
* 602: Second PUT Wall (-32.62%), significant downside target.
* Options Oscillator: Indicates PUT dominance with 56.9% Puts versus Calls.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 16.7 — IV remains low, suggesting minimal volatility expectation.
GEX Insight: The options market suggests 603 is the battleground. Bulls need to reclaim 607 to push higher, while bears will attempt to defend the PUT-heavy zones at 603-602.
Trade Outlook for SPY
* Bearish Setup: Look for rejection at 605-607. A breakdown below 603 can target 602, with potential downside extension to 600.
* Bullish Setup: A strong rebound off 603 with volume could signal a push back to test 607. Break above 608 confirms bullish continuation.
Conclusion
SPY remains at a critical juncture near upper resistance. Monitor 603 closely, as a break or bounce here will dictate short-term direction. Options GEX levels highlight a PUT-heavy market, favoring bearish pressure unless bulls reclaim higher ground.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Spy Short Well Well Guys, Yes I'm going to continue to go short especially this week with the big big decision of rate cuts Wednesday, if not this Friday or Monday 600 target I'm definitely out of the short position for now!! The New Narrative Trend by the way, is Insane how the results have been so far if you want more info content is out right now about it, generational wealth will be made!! And Yes you can still get in!!! Goodluck Traders and I will Follow Up With Spy on Tuesday
Spy under falls under 605 602 for sure that's when we should see blood in the streets
QQQ forget about it its A short 1st target $528
SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020 there are many rectangles
SPY analysis for Dec-18Watch out for important key levels.
Break above $605.85 with bar close will open bullish trade.
Break above $602.15 with bar close will open bearsih trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-17: Momentum Rally PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally higher - possibly attempting to find a top.
What I find interesting is the big rally in the QQQ/Nasdaq yesterday. Possibly, the Momentum Rally phase hit the NQ yesterday.
Overall, I'm still looking for the markets to attempt to roll into a topping pattern. So, I'm staying very cautious of any big market moves right now.
Yes, if you look at the QQQ/NQ, it looks like the markets are in liftoff mode (bullish), but other data suggests the markets are actually weakening and pulling into a reversion phase.
Gold and Silver will likely find a base/bottom soon. I picked up some Call options on SILJ and GDX recently anticipating the potential rally move.
Bitcoin is well beyond a 100% measured move higher. Even though I believe Bitcoin can rally to 112k - 115k, I'm urging traders to stay cautious (still).
My data suggests the markets are weakening and possibly moving into a pullback/reversion phase.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Options: Bull & Bear (Week of December 16)AMEX:SPY
Short-term we are looking at a downside trade as we want RSI to cool off a bit. Key levels at $607 and our key pivot of $604.25 last week.
📜 $604 Put 12/31
Entry: Rejection and 15-min close UNDER $607, entry off retest of resistance
🎯 Targets: $604.25, $603.37
📜 $608 Call 12/31
Entry: Breakout and 15 min close OVER $607, entry off retest of support
🎯 Targets: $608, $608.50
Bias for Today: Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long on Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long entering Calls on the First Bullish Fair Value Gap.
AMEX:SPY "Today's market bias is to open with a short outlook. If bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) start to form and price respects them, I’ll look to enter short positions targeting lower levels. However, if price bounces off these zones and a bullish FVG forms, I will shift focus to initiate long positions on the first bullish FVG that sets up cleanly. Watching for clear confirmations and respecting key price action levels will be critical. Let’s stay adaptive to what the market gives us!"
SPY will drop ... until Christmas.This is going to be quick.... busy right now.
You can look at my other charts to see the explanation of why I use the Heikin Ashi candlesticks.
The SPY is going to drop until Christmas. You can see the indicators on the daily chart shifting towards a downward move.
I believe you will see a zig zag move with this drop.
This week the market will drop.
Starting Monday you will see it move slightly upward as there will be indecision/positivity around the Fed Decision.
After the Fed Decision, the market will drop again until Christmas. This drop will be about the same distance as the drop this week.
The targets I have laid out are on the Chart with the drop hitting around 593 before going back up at the beginning of next week to hit about 601.
(It may not go up this high with the bounce up; it could hit a different level. I will update this post of the different levels it could hit if it hits my 593 target.)
After the Fed decision, it will drop until approximately 585.
I could be slightly off on any one of my targets. And if it doesn't hit 593 by the end of this week, all my other predictions will shift.
Happy trading.
SPY Analysis: Daily & 1-Hour Chart With GEX Analysis for Dec. 17Current Sentiment:
* SPY appears range-bound but leaning bearish near resistance on the Daily chart.
* The 1-Hour chart shows SPY retracing from its recent high around 609, struggling to hold above key support levels.
Key Technical Levels
Daily Chart:
* Resistance: 609.97 (recent high).
* Support: 602.81, 598.40.
* Trend: Uptrend intact, but momentum is stalling. Watch for a potential break below 602.
1-Hour Chart:
* Resistance: 607, 608.41 (GEX Call Wall and prior highs).
* Support: 605, 604 (key demand area), and 602.13 (next major support).
* SPY is showing lower highs on the hourly chart, indicating a short-term bearish bias.
Options Gamma Exposure (GEX)
* Call Wall: 608 (2nd Wall) and 611 (upper wall).
* Put Wall: 604 (3rd PUT Wall).
* HVL (High Volatility Level): 603, suggesting potential support if tested.
* GEX Overview:
* Puts dominate with 40.2%, showing hedging pressures.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 10.8, IVx avg 12.9% – lower volatility indicates slower moves.
Scalp and Swing Trade Suggestions
For Scalp Trade:
* Short Bias: If SPY fails to reclaim 607, consider a PUT scalp targeting 605.
* Entry: Below 607 with confirmation.
* Target: 605, 604.
* Stop-Loss: Above 608.50.
For Swing/Day Trade:
* Put Option:
* Strike: 605 PUT (Weekly Expiry).
* Entry: On rejection at 607-608 levels.
* Target: 602-604 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Above 609.
* Call Option:
* Strike: 608 CALL if SPY breaks and holds above 608.
* Target: 611-612 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Below 606.
Conclusion:
SPY is showing signs of weakness near resistance, with a short-term bearish setup. A rejection at 607-608 could trigger PUT opportunities toward 602-604. Keep an eye on the 603 HVL for potential support and monitor price action carefully.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk before trading.
SPY: what 's next?SPY: what 's next?
-Swinging reaccumulation in Inside bar candle pattern.
-Some important key level as image attached.
Wait for break!
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
Main reversal area The main weekly buy/sell area on the SPY chart is a critical zone where significant price movements often occur. This area is determined by key support and resistance levels, which are influenced by various factors, including economic indicators like the Money Supply M3.
Money Supply M3 (M3)
The Money Supply M3 is a broad measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes currency, deposits, and other liquid assets. Changes in M3 can indicate economic trends and influence market sentiment.
Current Analysis
High Risk: The current analysis suggests that the main buy/sell area is at very high risk. This could be due to several factors, such as:
Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the Money Supply M3 can create uncertainty in the market, leading to higher volatility.
Political Events: Recent political events or announcements can impact investor confidence and market stability.
Market Sentiment: Negative sentiment among investors can lead to increased selling pressure, pushing prices down.
Implications for Traders
Caution Advised: Given the high-risk nature of the main buy/sell area, traders should exercise caution. It may be wise to wait for clearer signals before making significant trades.
Risk Management: Implementing strict risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, can help protect against potential losses.
Monitoring Indicators: Keeping an eye on other economic indicators and market sentiment can provide additional insights and help make more informed trading decisions.
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite.
Trump Trade? - Hardly.
So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next?
Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities.
But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets.
The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016.
While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations?
We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates.
For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers.
Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 .
Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent).
The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
Daily analysis of intraday trading in US stocksWhat is this blog about?
The blog is dedicated to intraday trading on the US stock market (NYSE, NASDAQ exchanges).
After each trading session, I choose the most interesting and understandable stock in terms of making a profit and do a detailed analysis of it, indicating the prerequisites for opening a position, entry and exit points.
The analysis is conducted in accordance with the applied trading system, which is based on the price reaction to horizontal levels (rebound, breakout, false breakout) and volumes. I do not use indicators.
Each analysis is accompanied by a screenshot of the trade. There is a daily (and in some cases, hourly) chart in the upper part, which is used to analyze the overall picture and draw daily levels. There is a minute (in some cases, two-minute) chart in the lower part, which is used for intraday analysis, drawing intraday levels, entering and exiting a position.
What is the practical benefit of trade analyses?
Broad visual experience is one of the key components of successful trading on financial markets, in addition to the trading system, psychology and risk management. Normally traders spend thousands of hours looking at charts before it starts to bring positive results.
However, simply looking at the chart is not enough. We need to understand what exactly we are looking for there and what situations allow us to make a profit with a higher probability.
Analysis of trades helps to solve one of the main problems of beginner traders - lack of visual experience, and for experienced traders this is an opportunity to add/correct their trading system with new trading scenarios.
How to select stocks for trading?
It is important to select the right stocks every day that have the potential to make a profit with a high probability, in order to be successful in intraday trading.
Main criteria for selection:
1. High liquidity (trading volume from 1,000,000 units and above)
2. High activity in the premarket
3. Pure directional movement
4. The stock movement does not repeat the market movement
5. "Respect" for levels both in the premarket and in the main session
6. The presence of a catalyst for movement (news, earnings, technical etc.)
These criteria are perfectly suited to the so-called Stocks In Play, which make significant non-standard movements within one trading session, which often exceed the standard price movement (ATR) several times, influenced by a strong catalyst background.
Watchlist (12/16-12/20) Using TheStratSPY Analysis: Month is 2U but back under previous M high and close to flipping red. Last week was 2D but failed to get to magnitude and closed red, but above the reversal trigger at previous week lows. Daily was 2D on Friday, so the daily actionable signal would be a 2D-2U reversal if buyers were strong enough to make a higher high on the daily come Monday. To get us lower, we have a 3-1 4HR setup as well as a shooter 2U Hourly candle. Trigger and target levels can be seen on the chart. Overall, we have some confliction as the D and W are red while the M is still green. This shows an attempt to flip the month red and we must view it this way until we see a daily higher high. If that were to happen, then we look to see the week flip red and then possibly make a higher high on the week for the weekly reversal back to the upside, which would re confirm the month being 2U and green. Traditional TA traders will see a wedge or bull flag on the daily/4HR, but as Strat traders, we know this is just a lack of strength from either side as we continue seeing failed attempts to make HHs and LLs. Although unconventional, if you check the 3 Day TF through the 8 Day TF, you will see they are all currently inside bars in formation still. We also know that inside bars restart the process of making broadening formations, so now its just a waiting game. We see the current attempt is to make lower lows on the daily since we failed to take highs out after the daily reversal, so we now either take out lows, or fail and move back through previous range to the upside. With conflicting situations like this, you just have to rely on timeframe continuity. Until the M, W, D, and 60 are all the same color, simply fall back on top down analysis and timeframe continuity to see what's really going on regardless of how the charts may look
Weekly Watchlist:
Bullish:
ETSY - 2-1 Week, Failed 2D Day. FTFC Green, so looking for BF expansion on the weekly
CRWD - 2-1 Hammer Week. 4HR inside bar. Monthly 3-2-2 still slowly compounding 2Us to Mag
RBLX - MoMO Hammer 2U week. 2-1 Daily to trigger week
RKLB - 3-2D Hammer Week. Relatively large ATR and high rVol
Bearish:
MCD - 3-1 Week, Shooter 2U Day
PINS - 3-2U failed Week, No Daily AS. Weekly Motherbar issues so caution here
PDD 1-2U failed week (Revstrat). No Daily AS. Going for large weekly BF magnitude
ROKU - Failed 2U Week. At Monthly exhaustion risk. Daily PMG and gap fill potential
OXY - 2-1 Shooter Week. Not much range, but clean weekly AS and all big oil names deep red
DDOG - 2-1 Week (Huge red week), Daily 1-3. 2 Daily gap fills, and some weekly lows to target
LVS - 2-3 Week. At Q exhaustion. Will be FTFC Red before W triggers the 3-2D
Neutral:
WMT - 2-1 Week, Daily 3-2D failed. Daily AS could send it back into ATH. Alternatively there is an 11 pivot PMG to the downside + a small gap to fill
SPY Technical Analysis and GEX Insights for Dec. 16 1. Technical Analysis (Daily & 1-Hour Timeframes)
Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY remains in an upward channel but is showing signs of exhaustion near the upper trendline.
* Resistance:
* 609–610: This is the upper channel resistance where price may face selling pressure.
* Support:
* 586.15: Immediate support level from previous consolidation.
* 580: A key zone to watch if selling accelerates.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence on the daily, signaling potential weakness.
1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe):
* Trend: SPY is currently pulling back after rejecting a supply zone near 609.
* Resistance:
* 608–609: The major resistance area.
* Support:
* 602: Closest support level.
* 597.28: Critical support aligned with GEX levels.
* MACD: Bearish crossover, suggesting downside momentum in the short term.
2. GEX Analysis
Key GEX Levels:
* CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 606: 2nd CALL Wall, acting as significant resistance.
* 610: 3rd CALL Wall, the upper boundary of price action.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* 604: 2nd PUT Wall – current area of congestion and potential bounce zone.
* 600: Highest negative GEX, providing the strongest support below.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR: 7.3% – Low implied volatility makes options cheap for directional trades.
* PUTs: 47.7% activity signals notable bearish positioning, adding downside risk.
3. Trade Setups
Bearish (Short Bias):
* Entry: Near rejection at 606–609 resistance.
* Target: First target at 602, extended target at 600 PUT support.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (604 strike or ATM PUTs).
* Use a Bear Put Spread: Buy 605 PUT, Sell 600 PUT to reduce premium cost.
Bullish (Bounce Play):
* Entry: If SPY holds above 602–604 PUT Wall support with bullish volume confirmation.
* Target: 606–609 CALL resistance.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options (604 strike, 1-week out).
* Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 603 CALL, Sell 608 CALL for a cheaper setup.
Directional Bias for This Week:
* SPY leans bearish in the short term if it fails to reclaim 606–609. Watch for a potential drop toward 602–600 PUT support.
* A bullish bounce could occur at 602 if volume confirms support strength.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
