Keep Investing for Your Future: Why Consistency Pays OffInvesting isnโt just for the wealthy or financial expertsโit's for anyone looking to secure a better tomorrow.
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The S&P 500 offers broad market exposure, representing 500 of the largest U.S.
companies, which provides a diversified foundation for any investment portfolio. Its historical performance has shown steady, long-term growth, making it a reliable choice for building wealth. Additionally, the S&P 500 is relatively low-cost and accessible, making it ideal for both beginner and experienced investors alike.
SPY trade ideas
Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? ๐๐
Stock Market Forecast & Analysis๐งต
In this thread, weโre breaking it down for you:
-TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX
-Economic Data
-Insights & Predictions
Let's dive in friends!
Not financial advice
NASDAQ:QQQ
Monthly Chart analysis:
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-We are above 9ema and smoothing avg.
Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks.
Weekly Chart Analysis:
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-Held volume shelf
-Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH)
-Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580
-Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections.
Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's!
TVC:VIX
First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024.
But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower.
Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday.
AMEX:SPY
Monthly Chart analysis:
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-We are above 9ema and smoothing avg.
-Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support
Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT!
Weekly Chart Analysis:
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-Wicked back above smoothing line
-Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema
Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY!
AMEX:IWM
As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes.
Weekly Chart Analysis:
-At the bottom of an uptrend channel
-Sitting on a massive volume shelf
-At a massive S/R area
-At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY.
ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD.
The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW!
What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels.
Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December.
We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues.
Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL!
Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it!
ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
$SPY January 5, 2025AMEX:SPY January 5, 2025
My first post for the year 2025.
60 Minutes.
Downtrend intact.
For the fall 602.47 to 580.50 50% retracement done as there a divergence for the 2 lows 580.91 and 580.50.
So, for the rise 580.0 to 592.6 on Monday holding 587.5-589 levels we can expect 595 as initial target.
for the steep fall from 607 to 580 i would like some more consolidation.
Technically buy will be triggered only above 610 on closing basis in daily.
No trade for me on Monday. Not a good setup.
SPY: 597, then 585 or lowerSPY appears to be in a descending wedge (bullish) or a descending triangle (bearish). I'm expecting a rally to 597 on Monday, but we will likely see a rejection at the resistance line. I'm leaning towards the descending triangle and we see a fall through support to 567, but either of these patterns supports a drop to at least 577.
SPY Chart: Buy the DipsSummary
The S&P 500 (SPY) is still in a bullish trend.
This chart focuses on buying dips instead of selling.
Key buy zone is marked in the green box.
Key Points
Buy in the Green Box:
This area is where SPY is expected to bounce back.
Targets are $602.30 and $624.29.
Support and Stop-Loss:
Stop-Loss: $560.66 โ If SPY falls below this, the bullish trend may be invalid.
Support Zone: Between $563 and $573, as highlighted by Fibonacci levels.
Invalidation Level:
If SPY breaks below the red line at $510.50, weโre no longer in a bullish cycle.
Upside Potential:
As long as SPY stays above the green zone, it can move toward higher targets.
Simple Plan
1. Wait for SPY to drop into the green box before buying.
2. Avoid selling SPY; itโs better to focus on buying dips in this setup.
3. If SPY goes above the (X) wave, the bearish scenario is invalid.
Key Message
This chart is about staying patient and waiting for the right time to buy. The green box is your chance to get in before the next rally.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! ๐
$SPY Land of #RisingWedge's (Was this the bottom?! Orrrr...)Was yesterday the bottom? Is today continuation? Seem's like people thought this just a few days ago after 3 big days only to lead to another leg down... hmmm
Wedges are my favorite setup. Ofc @TradingView software probably spotted 0 of these because...? lol
Notice; Gap (Eyes) up both days than slight lean (circles) of towards close... #FEW
#Warning for #BottomCallers , I see more downside. Also for anyone RED out there. I'm RED today despite that NASDAQ:TSLA chart and NASDAQ:NVDA chart LOL. We're all human and make mistakes, we don't all learn from them.
-Prophecies
Spy Road To $615I Still am long With Spy, There is no Doubt, will we see a big correction possibly in the coming months , Yes I believe But in the Meantime Money Will Be Transferred To Different Stocks & Sectors Forsure Even if we do go in a bear Market!!! So I Will Be allocating Into The Stock Sector Which I had no exposure to, that can set me up for huge generational wealth and Gains Content Out Now,, As Always Good Luck Traders And Be Safe
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: Learning A or B Trading StylesYesterday, after the GDP Now data hit, I received a number of messages related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work in comparison to big news data (like GDP, JOBS, PMI, & Others).
Let me try to explain one simple thing to all of you.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN/Fibonacci Time/Price cycles. They DO NOT correlate or predict price movement based on NEWS EVENTS or other extraneous data.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are, in essence, the core price expectations related to time/price cycles WITHOUT EXTERNAL NEWS EVENTS.
They represent what price is likely to do without any big news, economic data, or critical major event taking place to disrupt the Cycle Pattern.
So, it is important for traders to understand what I call the "A or B" type of trade setup.
Price is always attempting to reach new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
Failure to reach new highs means price must roll downward and attempt to reach new lows. Failure to reach new lows means price must roll upward and attempt to reach new highs.
It is that simple.
Price is always attempting to break above previous critical highs or lows - ALWAYS.
Thus, once you understand this as a basis of price structure/movement, then you can begin to apply more advanced patterns (Fibonacci Price Theory, Excess Phase Peak Pattern, Others) as an additional layer to price structure in an attempt to understand how price dictates all trending/movement.
Now, one must also understand when price attempts to break levels (high or low), it can REJECT at those level (after breaking to new highs or lows). This is what I call a "Washout" pattern.
Rejection happens when a new low or high is reached, but the price FAILS to continue to trend in that direction. For example, if price were to reach a new higher high, then reject, this would be an example that strong resistance exists at/near the previous high level - causing price to FAIL to maintain that new high price level. Thus, I would expect price to move downward after REJECTING at the new high levels (see above).
The reason I'm trying to teach you these price concepts is because I want you to learn to make better decisions - not learn to just "follow along". You have to learn to understand price and understand how price moves related to opportunities.
That is what trading is all about - anticipating price moves because of what you are able to discover on a price chart.
Get some. Happy Friday.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY 1-Hour Technical Analysis and GEX Insights-Jan. 3Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart)
* Trend and Price Action:
* SPY is trading in a clear downtrend, respecting a descending trendline, with lower highs and lower lows observed.
* Current price action shows a slight bounce off the $577.74 support level, but the structure remains bearish.
* Volume: Selling pressure has been dominant, with moderate volume on the bounce, indicating cautious buying.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Showing early signs of a potential bullish crossover, signaling a short-term recovery attempt.
* Stochastic RSI: Oscillating from oversold levels, hinting at a possible relief rally or consolidation.
* Key Levels:
* Support Levels:
* $577.74: Immediate support; a breakdown could lead to further declines toward $572.00.
* $572.00: A significant support zone aligned with historical price action.
* Resistance Levels:
* $585.87: Immediate resistance near the descending trendline.
* $588.00: Strong resistance level with GEX-related CALL activity.
* $592.30: Additional resistance if the price breaks out above $588.
GEX Insights for SPY
* Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Positive GEX Zones:
* $588.00: Key CALL wall and a significant resistance zone, indicating strong seller interest.
* $590.00: Secondary resistance with additional CALL interest and moderate gamma exposure.
* Negative GEX Zones:
* $577.00-$572.00: Heavy PUT concentration and highest negative gamma levels, providing strong support but signaling potential volatility below these levels.
* Options Metrics:
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 21.9%, suggesting relatively low volatility compared to historical levels.
* Options Flow:
* CALLs: Modest activity concentrated near $588-$590.
* PUTs: Dominant below $580, reflecting heightened downside hedging by market participants.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $586.00 with confirmation of bullish momentum.
* Target: $588.00 (initial), $590.00 (extended).
* Stop-Loss: Below $584.00 to limit downside risk.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $577.00 with strong selling volume.
* Target: $572.00 (initial), $570.00 (extended).
* Stop-Loss: Above $580.00 to cap losses.
Conclusion
SPY is at a critical juncture, with $577 acting as key support. A break above $586 could trigger a short-term rally, while a breakdown below $577 might lead to increased selling pressure. GEX data aligns well with these levels, providing clear zones for traders to watch.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.
SPY Key Support Zone and Trendline AnalysisThe chart represents SPY (S&P 500 ETF) price action on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting critical support and trendline levels:
Descending Trendline:
A downward sloping trendline (blue) illustrates the persistent bearish momentum.
Price tested and respected this trendline multiple times, confirming it as a resistance level.
Key Support Zone:
A rectangular orange zone marks a significant support level where buyers previously stepped in.
Price is approaching this area, indicating a potential bounce or breakdown.
Volume Analysis:
Increasing volume towards the support zone suggests heightened activity, likely due to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Market Outlook:
A bounce off the support zone could trigger a short-term recovery, targeting the trendline as resistance.
A breakdown below the support zone would signal further bearish momentum, with potential downside continuation.
Trading Tip:
Monitor price action near the support zone and volume for confirmation of a bounce or breakdown before taking any positions.
SPY Triple Bottom, Rally time?!AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
I'd really like us to end the week above $580 in order to have this either Double or Triple bottom friends!
I could see a flash crash down to fill the price GAP at $574.81 as well.
Either way from what I'm seeing on the TVC:VIX , Economic numbers, and the charts I believe we are getting close to a bottom friends.
Consolidate down to only the best names until we receive that confirmation. They did a fake out today and another FED putting FUD into the market didn't help with the GDP projection.
Not financial advice.
$SPY #HeadNShoulders #XMasAlert #PutsRCheapAgainKeep it simple.
I'm hunting the next sign of market weakness, hopefully around these levels 598-601, will look for strong downside move past 595 and will load a mix of 1/31s 2/21s and 3/21s Puts, strike TBD.
A strong move down from this area would add to my Head N Shoulder Top Thesis.
Stay tuned, stay PAYtient.
- Prophecies
SPY to $650 in January?SPY recently retraced to the bottom of our Magic Linear Regression Channel with a large 3%+ move. Today, there was a nice bounce bounce from the channel bottom, back up to yesterday's open. So, what's next for SPY. The Magic Linear Regression Channel shows upside potential to it's baseline back at its recent all-time highs, and the potential for a higher move to the $630-$650 range. However, there is also the potential for it to fall back through the channel. Since we've been in a bull market for awhile now, that channel break would have to happen more definitively in order for that to be a likely scenario.
We've recently introduced the Magic Candles PRO indicator, which shows high volume candles that have very little price movement. When paired with the Magic Linear Regression Channel on a 1 day chart, it tends to show reversals at key levels on the Magic Linear Regression Channel. However, because we had a large move down on Weds, Dec. 17th 2024, and a large move up on Friday, Dec. 20th 2024 and ended up at the open of Thurs., Dec. 18th 2024, we get a doji on the 2 day chart that shows a massive "volume hammer" signal not seen since 2019, 5 years ago.
This signals that we are on the verge of a large sustained move. Again, because we've been in a bull market, and there aren't any very strong signs that it is over, we suspect that the large sustained move will be to the upside, because of the signal. If the price breaks down out of the channel, then we'll be in for a nice downward ride. Until that happens, though, we're bullish as we approach the all-time high again, and all the way to the $630-$650 range.
S&P 500 (SPY) - Buy Alert; Buy in the Green Box๐ก Setup Overview:
We're eyeing a bullish opportunity for SPY. The suggested buy zone lies within the green box area on the chart. This aligns with the 1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels, providing a strong probability for price action reversal.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
Entry Zone: $563 - $573
Stop-Loss: $556.50
Targets:
First Target: $602.30
Second Target: $624.29
๐ Strategy:
The plan focuses on buying dips, with no intention to short the S&P 500. This setup leverages Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions for precision trading.
Keep an eye out for validation at the support zone before entry.
๐ Expected Timeline: Medium-term hold.
SPY Technical Analysis for Jan. 2, 20251-Hour Chart Trading Analysis:
Current Observations:
* Trend: SPY is trading within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting a potential breakout soon.
* Volume: Slight increase on the recent candles, indicating growing interest.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Starting to show signs of bullish divergence, with the histogram nearing the zero line.
* Stochastic RSI: Moving upward from oversold territory, which is a positive signal for potential buying.
Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Wait for a breakout above $588.60 with strong bullish momentum and increased volume.
* Stop Loss: Set below $577.24, the recent swing low.
* Target: First target at $595, with an extended target of $600.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: If the price breaks below $577 with strong volume, enter a short position.
* Stop Loss: Place above $588.
* Target: First target at $570, with an extended target of $560.
Daily Chart GEX Analysis:
Key Levels from GEX:
* HVL: $584.41 acts as a strong Gamma Wall, suggesting a potential reversal area.
* Call Resistance: Significant resistance at $595 and $600 levels.
* Put Support: Strong support at $577 and $560.
Options Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Call Option: Buy calls with a strike at $590, expiring in 2 weeks, targeting $600.
* Suggested Position Size: Moderate, as IV is relatively low.
* Bearish Play:
* Put Option: Buy puts with a strike at $575, targeting $565.
* Suggested Position Size: Moderate, as IV is stable.
Summary and Recommendations:
* Trading: Monitor for a breakout above or below the wedge. Ensure confirmation via volume and indicators.
* Options: Align with the trading direction, and choose strikes close to GEX levels for maximum leverage.
* Caution: The GEX data suggests strong resistance at $595-$600 and solid support at $577-$560, making those levels critical decision points.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk effectively before making any trades.
SPY: Annual OutlookHere is my annual outlook for SPY.
Thanks for watching! And here are the levels I promised in the video:
ARIMA levels:
ETS Point Forecast at Day 252: 602.4311
ETS 80% Upper Confidence Level at Day 252: 733.9343
ETS 95% Upper Confidence Level at Day 252: 803.548
ETS 80% Lower Confidence Level at Day 252: 470.9278
ETS 95% Lower Confidence Level at Day 252: 401.3141
Happy new years everyone!
S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Correction will occur in 2025๐ Chart Overview: This analysis highlights the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) from an Elliott Wave perspective. It identifies key trends, corrective patterns, and long-term opportunities for investors. The broader market remains structurally bullish, with corrective dips likely providing accumulation opportunities.
Elliott Wave Breakdown
Wave Count:
- The SPY is in a long-term bullish sequence, completing Wave (I) around $610.85.
- The recent structure shows signs of a developing Wave II correction before the next impulsive move higher.
Wave II Correction:
- Wave II is expected to form an ABC corrective pattern, targeting deeper retracements within 2025.
- Wave A is projected to pull back into the $520โ$540 range.
- Wave C could test lower supports near $480โ$500, completing the corrective phase.
Invalidation Level:
- The invalidation level for the bullish count is $347.26. Any movement below this level negates the current wave structure.
Market Outlook
Macro Environment:
- Economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation trends, will heavily influence SPY's price action.
- Anticipate increased market volatility during Wave II but retain a bullish outlook for the long term.
Sector Implications:
- SPY's diversified exposure suggests broad market recovery after corrective dips, particularly in tech and industrials.
Key Takeaways
- SPY remains in a right-side bullish structure, with short-term corrections likely providing excellent entry points.
- Long-term investors should focus on accumulating positions during corrective phases, while swing traders can capitalize on price volatility.
๐ก Reminder: Corrections are natural and necessary for healthy market growth. Stick to your plan and "buy the dips." ๐