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Why Blind Index Investing Could Be Costing You Thousands?!Index-based investing has been one of the most popular ways to grow a long-term portfolio for decades. Today, it has become even more accessible and favored, offering a safer foundation for investing and generally carrying lower risk compared to portfolios composed of individual stocks. For someone like me, a technical analyst, index investing isn't exactly an adrenaline rush. Under societal pressure, I decided to test a few hacks and dive deeper into it ;) I set out to compare three of the most popular U.S. index ETFs – SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), and IWM (Russell 2000) – and analyze how to implement a brief technical analysis into index selection could influence long-term results. Starting in 2005, I "invested" $1,000 every quarter, completing a total of 81 test purchases. Each time, I selected the index that technical analysis suggested was in the strongest position. If done strictly and consistently, there were often situations where all three indices had just reached their all-time highs. In those moments, I had to make a choice. Technical analysis is not just about drawing lines on a chart – experience, market intuition, and behavioral patterns of the price play a big role here. My Test and Strategy The goal was to compare the following three U.S. index ETFs: - SPY (S&P 500) - QQQ (Nasdaq 100) - IWM (Russell 2000) Test conditions: - Start date: 2005 - Investment period: 81 quarters - Mandatory quarterly investment: $1,000 - Index selection: Based on technical analysis and market intuition. Distribution of trades during the test period: - SPY: 35 times - QQQ: 31 times - IWM: 15 times The chart illustrates SPY, QQQ, and Russell with blue arrows marking purchase points. Results of the Experiment Performance of my strategy: - +344% return - Invested: $81,000 - Final value: $360,000 Comparison indices (each quarter regular purchases): - SPY: +233% (final value: $272,000) - QQQ: +579% (final value: $552,000) - IWM: +128% (final value: $186,000) My strategy outperformed SPY and IWM because I focused on selecting the ETFs in the strongest technical condition at the time. While QQQ delivered higher absolute returns, my diversified approach offered competitive returns with lower risk and more stable outcomes. Key Takeaways 1. Diversity and Stability: Risk Mitigation and Return Optimization The goal wasn't just maximum returns but also reducing risk and adopting a smarter approach. While QQQ had the highest returns, remember that it is heavily concentrated in the technology sector, making it riskier. Back in 2005, it wouldn't have been easy to predict that QQQ would outperform. A technical analysis strategy allows for risk diversification by choosing the strongest index at any given time, delivering significant returns while maintaining diversity and stability. 2. Thoughtful Regularity Outperforms Blind Regularity Strict quarterly investing avoids the biggest mistake investors fear – timing the market. Regularity is crucial, but it needs to be thoughtful. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. My strategy allowed selecting the strongest index at each point, yielding significantly better returns. 3. Wrong Index Choice Can Be Costly Had I chosen only IWM throughout the period, my return would have been just +128%. This clearly shows the importance of not sticking to one index but instead evaluating regularly to find the one with the greatest potential at any given time. How to Choose the Best Index: Follow my Newsletter to Guide You One of many of the topics of this newsletter (You will find it here, in the profile section, visiting my "website") will be sharing my monthly and quarterly top lists of indices, making regular purchases easier for you. The test proved that sticking to one index isn’t the best way forward – but which one should you choose? That’s where the monthly top list comes in. I firmly believe this strategy and approach have significant potential to help investors make smarter and more confident decisions. That’s why I’m starting a newsletter, where one of the many topics will be sharing this list regularly: - The technically strongest indices for investing. - Explanations of why a particular index is technically more attractive than others. Conclusion My research proves that technical analysis and understanding of charts can be powerful tools for long-term index investing. Regularity, fact-based decisions, and risk diversification help achieve optimal results. Your portfolio deserves better decisions. Don’t waste time analyzing indices yourself. All the best, Vaido
AMEX:SPY
by VaidoVeek
1
This is a no Brainer for you noobs - check itWhat up? how is everyone doing the almost end of January w a new Admin? one things i do wish is that Robinhood will collab with @TradingView does anyone have info on this? Why are the holding back? follow along... i swing only SPY 500 options- 7 years in training, a year before the covid 19. i buy calls or buy puts overnight, easy- up or down? 1. The week, before this weeks volume was pretty decent I must say.- this held us up. 2. I do like continuation patterns. 3. $ 605.00 is in the cards for next week of 1/27 - 1/31 4. With the month closing on Friday the 31, we may even see a low touching that $ 600.00 5. Therefore we are looking for bounces on either side. 6. I kind of like $ 600.00 to confirm there are buyers on that area of support. For our continuation of an upmarket trend. 7. Although volume and candlestick are key to watch around 605. ⛳️ do we get a birdie or a par this week? -- - leave a comment or evaluation below.
AMEX:SPY
by KommonStock
20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?Hello Friends! This is a 3 Week chart of SPY, showing you the past 20 years of price action... From the 2001 dot com bubble, to the 2022 recession, to today in 2023 I decided to explore the possibility of the bottom being in and developed a thesis based on this Taking a look at the 3 Week MACD, we can see multiple golden crosses as highlighted by the YELLOW CIRCLES Each and every single time the 3 Week MACD Golden Cross has occurred... It has triggered a multi year long bull cycle for the S&P 500 as shown via historical analysis. The ONLY TIME this led to a fakeout was during the 2001 Dot Com Bubble era... From Approximately October 1, 2001 to February 14, 2002, SPY was rallying and shows signs of tremendous bullish action. However, turmoil came back in the Bears were in control once again. The only reason markets continue to crash after February of 2002 was because the price had moved below the 50 WMA as indicated by the giant arrows Due to weakness in SPY's price action during 2000 - 2002, we were never able to recover ABOVE the 50 WMA and crashed further as a result UNTIL the RSI BOTTOMED below 30 Fast forward to the 2010s, looking at 3 Week price action from December 2011 to the 1st half of 2020:::: You can see golden crosses on the RSI & MACD correlate immensely with multi year bullish price action And I'd like to come to today as an example... As of February 16, 2023, SPY is currently holding above the 50WMA level of approximately $401 if we can close above here on March 6, 2023. We will usher in the next Multi year bull run! We are seeing welcome signs of a bullish reversal taking place, such as the 3 Week RSI continuing to show STRONG signs of bullish divergence playing out since May 31, 2022 The 3 Week RSI Golden Cross in combination with the 3 Week MACD likely also about to close a Golden Cross shows that this market is strong, the bulls remain in control for now, despite these turbulent times Now I am no financial advisor, but my best advice right now is the following::: hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!
AMEX:SPY
by Jonalius
82
Where's The Top?Good evening traders, If you're anything like me, you've probably been asking yourself for a few days now when SPY will top out? So here is my technical analysis with a breakdown of my thoughts and predictions for the next few upcoming weeks. First and foremost, Trump took office on Jan 20th. The "Trump Pump" is alive and well, obviously. I'm starting to think the market was being retrained from a breakout under the Biden Administration, though we saw over a 25% return YTD. Side note: This year is projected to do 3% on the S&P 500. With that said, it is the S&P 500. The 500 largest companies in the United States. As Tech and AI take flight into 2025, it can only be assumed that large companies that make up the S&P 500 would be adopting these new resources in order to help them turn profits. What does this mean for retail traders? To put it simply, the trend is your friend, until it's not. These index funds, such as SPY have consumed bears for almost a consecutive 10 days, following a parallel channel towards a high target/trend line around the area of 623-626. Until this channel of mayhem is broken, SPY is bullish. This is no man's land and we could change direction at any given moment. The lines of resistance are as follows: .. .. .. .. Thanks for reading,
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tsteves
5
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for Today & TomorrowThe expected move for today is between 606 and 613 and that is a .54% move today and the only level we have in our trading range today is that 35 EMA you could see it’s been a pretty support all week and then we have that up gap from This Wednesday, which could give some added support at the bottom of the trading range. Monday’s contract at the bottom takes us in the middle of that gap and with how extremely overbought we are that 50 day moving average could be a really great target for next week.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
META - Technical Analysis for Trading & GEX Option Analysis1. Technical Analysis for Trading * Trend & Price Action: META is showing bullish momentum, breaking previous resistance levels. The price is forming a rising channel and steadily trending upwards. * Support Levels: * $612.50: Immediate support marked as the HVL. * $600: Strong psychological support near the 3rd PUT Wall. * $588.55: The lowest support visible on the chart. * Resistance Levels: * $637.40: The current price is testing this resistance near the highest positive NETGEX wall. * $650: Next critical resistance level with GEX influence. * Indicators: * MACD: Positive histogram with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming upward momentum. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought levels indicate caution for short-term pullbacks but align with the ongoing bullish trend. * Volume: Increasing volume supports the upward movement, validating the breakout above $630. 2. GEX Option Analysis * Gamma Exposure Levels: * $637.50 (Highest positive NETGEX/Resistance): Strong gamma resistance; a breakout above this level could trigger a further rally to $650. * $630 (2nd CALL Wall): Previous resistance now acting as support, indicating bullish sentiment among option traders. * $600 (PUT Wall): Minor support indicating limited bearish pressure below this level. * Option Insights: * IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 48.9, indicating slightly elevated IV compared to historical levels. * IVx (Implied Volatility Index): 47.2, suggesting moderate IV with potential for significant moves. * Call-to-Put Ratio (Call$ %): 38.5% of gamma exposure is call-focused, reflecting bullish dominance in the options market. 3. Strategy & Action Plan * Bullish Trade Setup: * Entry: Near $630 or on a breakout above $637.50 with confirmation. * Target: $650 and potentially $660. * Stop-Loss: Below $625. * Bearish Trade Setup (Pullback Scenario): * Entry: On rejection from $637.50 with confirmation. * Target: $612.50. * Stop-Loss: Above $640. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing. In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow. Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks. Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks. BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern. I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SPY at a Crossroads: Key Levels and Options Strat for Max ProfitAnalysis and Trade Plan for SPY Based on the 1-Hour Chart SPY is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting bullish momentum. However, key resistance at 607.82—backed by strong Gamma Exposure (GEX)—poses a critical decision point for traders. Here's a detailed breakdown of potential moves and strategies: Key Levels to Watch: 1. Resistance: * 607.82: Current high and GEX resistance. * 610-612: Psychological level and channel extension. 2. Support: * 605: Minor support within the trend. * 599.56: Major support zone highlighted by GEX and channel lower boundary. Momentum Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover, signaling potential short-term weakness. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought and turning downward, suggesting a possible pullback. * Volume: Moderate, with no strong conviction near resistance. Trade Plan for 1-Hour Chart Bullish Setup (Breakout Above 607.82): * Entry: Above 607.82, confirmed by strong volume. * Target: 610 and 612 (upper channel resistance). * Stop-Loss: Below 605. Bearish Setup (Breakdown Below 605): * Entry: Below 605, confirmed by increasing bearish volume. * Target: 599.56 and potentially 595 (lower support). * Stop-Loss: Above 606. Options Strategies Based on GEX (5-7 DTE) The GEX levels provide critical insights into market dynamics, with 607 acting as a strong resistance zone and 600 as a key support. Utilizing options expiring in 5-7 days (Jan 30, 2025), we can position trades for both bullish and bearish scenarios while minimizing the impact of time decay. Bullish Option Strategy: * Buy Call: * Strike: 607 (ATM) or 605 (slightly ITM). * Expiry: Jan 30, 2025. * Entry: On a confirmed breakout above 607.82. * Target: Resistance at 610-612. * Stop-Loss: If SPY falls below 605. Bearish Option Strategy: * Buy Put: * Strike: 600 or 599 (slightly OTM). * Expiry: Jan 30, 2025. * Entry: On a confirmed breakdown below 605. * Target: Support at 599.56 and potentially 595. * Stop-Loss: If SPY climbs back above 606. Why 5-7 DTE Options? * Lower Theta Decay: Allows trades to develop over a few days without rapid value loss. * Controlled Risk: More time to adjust positions or exit with minimal losses. * Flexibility: Captures both intraday moves and multi-day trends. Trading Tip: Stay Flexible While the 1-hour chart shows bullish momentum, the negative skew (-17.9%) and GEX resistance at 607 suggest caution. Monitor price action closely at key levels, and don’t hesitate to switch bias if the market conditions change. Conclusion:
SPY’s price action and GEX levels highlight critical opportunities for breakout or pullback trades. Use a combination of chart-based entries and 5-7 DTE options to maximize profit potential while minimizing risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚨
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Spy monthly Its hitting the 2 extenxion on the fininacci retracement at 610 611 also previous high on the daily chart december 6th high is 609 so makes since to retrace here . I bought many put options today deep in the money i think thats a major resistance now , the macd on the monthly shows bulls losing monentum . I am expecting a correction to start end of month or february . I can take the loss and close the options if they push it above 610 . Not a recomendation just my thoughts
AMEX:SPYShort
by Todopoderoso
Spy Road To $615 Its hereIts Here! If You having been following me, we are about to hit our target this week before 1/24/25 , a lot of my followers are going to make a lot of money this week following my Spy & Stock predictions! When we hit our price target this week, I will Update Accordingly to cautiously evaluate our market conditions Bear / Bull / Blow Off Top. But in the meantime you must have exposure to stocks that can with stand a Bull or Bear Market Moving Forward Content Out Now, on what to do! As Always Safe Trades JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
39
SPY .. S&P 500 interesting Averages Head n ShouldersWhile the green isn't a head n Shoulder it gives you the best visual... the math is on the left for averages to the green...and the Red is the inverse image of the 2015 to today when figuring in a little room for "uncertainties" But either way...They both give an interesting take on things. Which do you think is achievable...especially when insurance is about to collapse with fires, policy cancellations...and derivatives backed swaps being called on if any of the big 7 start a hard down?? anywho..doodles are doodles...
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ. My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration. Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality. The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom. Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty. BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward. Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Technical Analysis and GEX Insights for Jan 22Technical Analysis * Trend Overview: SPY is showing a recovery from recent lows, pushing towards key resistance levels at $605-$606. * Support Levels: * Immediate support near $599-$600. * Major support at $575, aligning with prior lows. * Resistance Levels: * Immediate resistance at $604-$606 (Gamma Wall and Call resistance). * A break above $606 may lead to $610 as the next target. * Momentum Indicators: * MACD: Momentum has flattened but remains in bullish territory. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest caution for buyers as a pullback could occur. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Analysis * Highest Positive NETGEX: $606, acting as a significant resistance zone. * Call Walls: * $606: Strong 2nd Call Wall resistance (65.98% GEX concentration). * $603: Another layer of resistance but less significant. * Put Walls: * $596 and $595: Immediate levels of put support, which could act as downside protection. * HVL: $600 as the High Volume Level, supporting bullish activity above this level. Actionable Trade Setups Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $605, with confirmation of volume breakout. * Target: $610 and potentially $615. * Stop-Loss: Below $600 to manage downside risks. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Below $599, especially if $596 is breached with momentum. * Target: $590 and $585. * Stop-Loss: Above $604 to minimize losses. Outlook SPY's upward movement is promising, but overbought conditions and strong resistance near $606 warrant caution. Bulls need a clean breakout above $606, while bears could capitalize on any weakness below $599. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
3
$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630AMEX:SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern. From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region. I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545. If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by benjihyam
16
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 1-21-25 : Cycle Top FormationThis video highlights my cycle research and why I believe the US markets are very close to a market top right now. My research suggests the US markets would rally into the Inauguration and reach a peak near Jan 20-22. I believe the markets are very close to a market top right now, and there is limited opportunity to the upside currently. I believe there is a bigger opportunity for a pullback in the SPY target 578 to 585 (roughly), where I believe the SPY will find support. Gold & Silver should continue to price in additional risks and rally over the next 3+ weeks. I believe Gold will target $2880, then stall a bit before rallying up above $3000. Silver should target $33.50 to $34.25 at the same time. Bitcoin continues to be range-bound. At this time, I believe the most logical outcome for BTCUSD is a breakdown attempt until the US settles on deregulation policies. Let's see how this plays out over the next few days/weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1