TOST - JULY 24 MATrend Unsustainable Momentum- D1 larger trend is aligned to our bearish direction
MATrend Unsustainable Momentum (Systematic) ⏪
The strategy identifies stocks (Tech sector ) that follows the larger market regime's momentum of the day and because they are unable to maintain it price breaks down quickly
Tight stops aligned to the price behaviour we are trying to capture. Which is a rapid break of the momentum.
TOST trade ideas
TOST - JUNE 24 MATrend Unsustainable MomentumBAD Trade
I made a snap decision to enter this price even though it was below 0.5. With the idea that I could tweak the entry rule to be between 0.5 and 0.25.
I will make it a point that critical decisions that impacts system rules rules should only happen after an evaluation when the market closes.
I can then solve it with clarity and without trading pressure. I do not need to take the trade as there will always be new opportunities
MATrend Unsustainable Momentum (Systematic) ⏪
The strategy identifies stocks (Tech sector ) that follows the larger market regime's momentum of the day and because they are unable to maintain it price breaks down quickly
Tight stops aligned to the price behaviour we are trying to capture. Which is a rapid break of the momentum.
Toast Inc - Long NYSE:TOST has demonstrated considerable momentum, leading us to explore two potentially favorable scenarios for its price trajectory.
Firstly, considering the current landscape of an overextended broader market, driven by the success of NASDAQ:NVDA , the potential for a correction becomes apparent, possibly triggered by the impending NASDAQ:NVDA earnings call. In this scenario, a positive outcome would involve a rebound within the 17-19 dollar range, indicative of a resilient continuation of momentum for $TOST.
In a second scenario, if broader markets hold momentum or NASDAQ:NVDA reports earnings substantially exceeding expectations, leading to a persistent buying frenzy, NYSE:TOST could sustain its momentum and break potentially out of its current range.
Same applies in a scenario when there's zero correlation to the broader market and the momentum holds ground.
In this context, a plausible price target would be within the 30-32 dollar range, supported by the technical broadening channel and historical highs.
Please note that this analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Toast Plans To lay Off 10% of its Workforce, As Growth SlowsToast, ( NYSE:TOST ) maker of restaurant management software, stated on Thursday it will lay off 550 employees, about 10% of its workforce. The company also reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
Several Tech companies have instituted layoffs in 2024. On Wednesday Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) said it would eliminate 4,000 jobs as sales declined and clients became even more cautious about spending.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) shares were initially up as much as 16%.88 after hours but then gave back much of the gains.
According to the recently published report, the company's earnings per share were a loss of 7 cents per share, which is better than the expected loss of 11 cents per share. The revenue for the quarter was $1.04 billion, which exceeded expectations of $1.02 billion. Toast ( NYSE:TOST ), as per the statement released by the company, saw an increase of nearly 35% in revenue as compared to the previous year. Its net loss of $36 million in the current quarter is an improvement from the $99 million loss in the same quarter last year. The company has allocated $250 million for share buybacks.
The pandemic led many restaurants to adopt Toast’s mobile ordering and payment tools, which helped double the company’s revenue. Shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021, amid that uptick. Demand has sublimed since then, down from 37% in the third quarter and about 45% in the second quarter.
Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) faces increasing competition from the likes of Block, Fiserv, and Shift4, Bank of America analysts wrote in a December note as they reduced their rating on the stock from buy to neutral.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) new layoffs should result in $45 million to $55 million in charges, mostly in the first quarter, and $100 million in annualized savings.
Those cuts come weeks after Aman Narang, Toast’s co-founder and COO, replaced Chris Comparato as CEO. Under Comparato’s leadership last summer, Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) began to charged a fee of 99 cents for each online order that totaled more than $10. Consumers and restaurant owners objected, prompting urging the company to eliminate the surcharge.
Toast's (TOST:NYSE) Recent Successes Impressive Financial Milestones: Toast's Recent Successes
Exceeding $1 Billion Annualized Recurring Run-Rate
In a recent announcement, Toast revealed remarkable financial achievements, surpassing the significant milestone of $1 billion in annualized recurring run-rate. This accomplishment underscores the company's robust business model and its capacity to capture recurring revenue streams, indicative of customer loyalty and market demand.
Achieving Adjusted EBITDA Profitability and Positive Free Cash Flow
A noteworthy highlight in Toast's recent financial report is its attainment of Adjusted EBITDA profitability and positive free cash flow, marking a pivotal moment since its initial public offering (IPO). This achievement demonstrates the company's dedication to achieving financial sustainability and efficiency in its operations.
Anticipated Growth Trajectory
Toast remains optimistic about its growth prospects, projecting continued increases in both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2023 and the entirety of the year. This outlook speaks to the company's strategic planning, market positioning, and its ability to adapt to evolving market dynamics effectively.
Comprehensive Platform and Competitive Edge
Toast's success is attributed, in part, to its comprehensive platform that caters to various aspects of the restaurant industry. This all-encompassing approach enables the company to offer end-to-end solutions, enhancing its value proposition to clients. Additionally, Toast benefits from a competitive moat and strong network effects, solidifying its market position and reducing the threat of new entrants.
Compelling Valuation and Limited Risks
Intriguingly, Toast's valuation has become increasingly compelling as its financial performance improves. This presents an opportunity for potential investors to enter the market at an advantageous point. Furthermore, the company's approach to risk management has resulted in limited uncertainties, contributing to the overall appeal of investing in Toast's stock.
Conclusion: A Promising Investment Prospect
In conclusion, Toast's recent financial achievements, coupled with its projected growth, comprehensive platform, competitive advantages, appealing valuation, and prudent risk management, collectively position the company as a compelling investment opportunity. As the company continues to make strides in its industry, investors are likely to view Toast's stock as an attractive addition to their portfolios.
This content is provided for general information purposes only and is not to be taken as investment advice nor as a recommendation for any security, investment strategy or investment account.
$TOST dojiWe see $TOST in a downward channel and now a doji candle at the lows.
I swing stocks quickly and am not scared to day trade them if the gains come.
On this one, I would look for a break of $17.86 and $18.70.
If we break out of the channel that 100-day MA could be another good target.
Powell on Wednesday
Long trade in TOSTTOST went public in late 2021 - just in time to get slaughtered in last year's bear market. But the stock is now turning around.
I like the late-2021 and 2022 IPO bucket since a lot of these names have not had a chance to shine in a healthy market. Many are trading for a fraction of their IPO price and beginning to shine. TOST is one of them.
After nearly doubling off its lows in the middle of last year, TOST began forming a large consolidation base.
Notice how the stock respects its 200-day moving average. What was initially resistance has become support after reclaiming the 200-day, and TOST is now breaking out to new 52-week highs.
Last week's pullback to the 21-day moving average (blue line) was immediately bought. We are seeing tennis ball action as TOST jumps right back to its highs which is a good sign of support buying.
We are seeing the first base breakout in the stock's history which, historically, has led to substantial upside moves in new companies with game-changing products like Toast.
NOTE: The company reports earnings on Thursday, 2/16 so I will be keeping exposure light until we see the numbers and how the stock reacts.
TOST - Emerging from BaseTOST hit bottom 8.5 months ago on 12 May 2022 and began a 2 stage basing, lasting 3 and 5+ months respectively (pink and blue box shown on chart).
During its basing, there were high volume accumulations on numerous occasions.
Stage 2 basing occurred over 5.5 months with the stock whip-sawing around its 200 day moving average until the MA is no longer downward sloping but completely flat now (and ready to turn up...).
Yesterday the stock finally pierced above the a critical neckline @ 22.50 and has remained above so far. The odds of this being a successful breakup is much greater now owing to the shift in overall market sentiment.
An aggressive trader would enter on the breakof the neckline (Entry 1) with initial stop loss placed just below the most recent pivot low @20. The more conservative trader could wait until the uptrend is slightly more established and enter at #2.
Watch out for earnings expected on 14 Feb.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
$TOST for the bulls!(1) We’ve got a golden cross (2) there was a more than 50% surprise in earnings and a decent surprise in revenue (we know earnings is more important though) (3) the stochastic indicates that price is undervalued as well as that downwards momentum is low, (4) and looks like a double bottom of support! We’ll see what happens.