VTI Long soon but not for longVTI is approaching a point to bounce ether starting Friday or Monday. Lets see what happens
VTI trade ideas
VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) – Going Down SoonOverview:
VTI is currently facing resistance at the $301.85 level, where bulls need a breakout to reverse the bearish momentum. However, the recent price action suggests a potential continuation of the bearish wave structure, aligning with broader market uncertainties.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Key Resistance Zone:
The resistance zone at $301.21–$301.85 is derived from the 88% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend. This area is critical for the bulls to reclaim control.
Bearish Elliott Wave Setup:
- Wave W: Completed, marking a significant decline.
- Wave X: Nearing completion at the resistance zone, with a bearish reversal expected.
- Wave Y: Targeting lower levels as part of the corrective wave sequence.
Targets:
= Target 1: $289.76 – This aligns with a key support area and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
- Target 2: $280.81 – Corresponds with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and aligns with historical support.
Stop-Loss: Placed above $301.85 to account for false breakouts while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio.
🌐 Macro Analysis:
Economic Conditions:
1. Rising interest rates and a cautious Federal Reserve stance are weighing on the broader market, including total market ETFs like VTI.
2. Persistent inflation concerns and slowing economic growth create additional headwinds.
Sector Rotation:
3. Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare are gaining traction, suggesting risk-off sentiment in the broader market.
Investor Sentiment:
Investors remain wary of market volatility, with a shift toward bonds and cash as safe-haven assets.
📌 Trade Plan:
- Short Entry: Between $301.21–$301.85, contingent on bearish confirmation at the resistance.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss at $301.85.
- Profit Targets: First target at $289.76 and second target at $280.81, ensuring a robust risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risk Considerations:
Watch for macroeconomic events, such as Federal Reserve announcements and inflation data, that could impact market direction.
Monitor VTI’s reaction at the resistance zone for potential invalidation of the bearish setup.
Do you agree with this bearish outlook on VTI, or do you see a different trend unfolding? Share your thoughts! 🚨📉
VTI Is currently in an uptrend reaching all time highes!1) I'm looking for a continuation to the upside with a restest at previous support level. Then continue to the upside to previous high
2) If there is a break in structure at previous support, then I'll look for confirmation of a change of character to the downside , only if it doesn't respect the previous support level.
VTI reaches all time highes! Expect continuation to the upside
This is Just a brief Summary of VTI ,Long term hold investment .
VTI bounces overnight $284 to $287 (4hr chart)MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
VBSM is negative
Price at near Fibonacci level
In at $284
Target is $287 or channel top
Stop loss is $283
VTI timmingThis seems about right, ITs good to have the FED let us know where the top is going to be.
Once the rate cut happens (or no rate cut happens) big tech exhausts itself / the narrative changes and its about the election ?
SPX/VTI bear flagSPX, VTI forming a barish flag pattern in the 15m timeframe.
The chart above is in 4h, to provide the fib view also. You can clearly see a bearish flag in the 15m TF, try it yourself.
Target: 234-236 (-5.5%)
For the doomsday peopleYeah, I could see it. Dunno if it'll happen, but I definitely see it.
Good setup for a pullback in the least. Given how Feds are at the moment, what stops a crash?
Are Foreign Stocks Forging a Relative Comeback? Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the forex market are always crucial for foreign stocks. That brings me to today's idea.
The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) has sharply underperformed the Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) since 2007. In that time, the dollar has moved from the low 70s to well above 100. I like to compare the relative price chart of VTI to VEU for a gauge of relative strength between the US and non-US markets. Right now, it might appear that discarding VEU in favor of an all-US portfolio would make the most sense. But I am monitoring a potential false breakout on the chart of VTI/VEU. If we see a continued drop off in relative US strength, then a move toward support, illustrated on the chart could be in play over the coming months.
So, don’t forget about the 37% chunk of the investable equity universe that is foreign stocks. Fundamentally, VEU trades about 13 times forward earnings estimates compared with about 19 times on the US cap-weighted index. The ex-US market also features more sector diversification and a higher dividend yield. Of course, this key technical move right now bears close watch for macro investors as 2024 gets underway.
#VTI#The decision to maintain current interest rates, as announced in the latest Federal Reserve meeting, is likely to have a positive effect on the stock market. However, it is essential to consider current geopolitical tensions that may influence market dynamics. Overall, I remain optimistic about the future trajectory of the US stock market, particularly for ETFs encompassing the tech sector, which tend to exhibit robust technical performance.
Analyzing VTI's technical indicators, we see a similar pattern to VOO's. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is approaching the overbought threshold, suggesting a short-term resistance level around $214. On the daily chart, the appearance of a bullish MACD crossover signals the end of a bearish trend. Looking at the weekly chart, it seems we are nearing the end of a fourth-wave, with a primary price target at $282.46 and a secondary target around $348.96.
$VTI Cup W/ Handle Formation?AMEX:VTI – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF looks to be forming a Cup with Handle on the Weekly Chart.
I have an alert set for a cross over the top if the handle trendline. If the market firms up and this triggers, I will use a lower timeframe to look for a good RR entry and stop loss.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
VTI hitting bottom of channel looking for bounceI do not hold VTI but instead VTSAX as my main long-term hold for spot account. This channel has stayed true for a while and this bounce zone could be a good DCA add.
VTI at classic bull trap levels. VTI now has a classic bull trap formation. Big decision level here. Were we to see a rejection of the attempt at a new high and breaking of the 2022 low we'd likely only have seen the early section of the VTI drop.
A spot to be careful for bulls.
Total Stock Market reveals recession trend lineThe total stock market tracked by AMEX:VTI looks fairly bullish in that we are now trending along post-Great Recession (GR) lows for the upper non-recessionary channel defined since the GR. So if no recession is ahead of us (a very BIG if), things ought to be looking up.
The two most recent recessions each hit the same lowest bound in this two-tiered channel defined since the GR, suggesting that this lowest trend line may mark reliable 'recession resistance' such that it might mark the low point for the next recession. I'm surprised that there is this fairly obvious recession-tested lower bound that I've never seen anyone point out before, so I wanted to share this observation.
this is really lazy but yeahyou can clearly see where my head is at. i have to write a bit more for tv to let this post, or else i wouldve wrote less.
Historical Comparison of Vanguard Sector ETFsQuick comparison chart to see which performed better (or worse) during bull and bear markets.
It's not always a straight-forward answer, and more variables involved.
But... should give you an idea all things else equal regarding ticker choices and weights.
MARKETS: DebtCeiling 2013& What FollowsHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
I am passionate about economics and history. Together, these two can tell a compelling story of ow interlinked everything is, and give a glimpse into the future should certain events repeat itself.
That is the core of my argument today as we look at the previous time he US Government hit a debt ceiling, and what happened after.
It would be great if you could watch the video , but if you can't spare 10min here's the summary:
📈 VTI : Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
I love using the VTI as a general overview of the trend on stocks. You could also use the S&P, it's just a personal preference considering they have interest and hold 50% plus shares of nearly EVERYTHING.
The VTI mostly consolidates and sees some downward price action for three years after USA announces debt crisis. VTI recovers in Jan 2016, three years later.
In other words, in the stock market you may see some down, some up. A near equal amount of buyers and sellers to balance out the total environment. China50 seems to be a precursor of what is about to happen on VTI.
📉 Look for buy opportunities during this time, prepare to hold long term.
📈 GOLD
Gold starts declining before the debt crisis is officially announced. A multiyear bear market follows, one of the worst. Continues up until 2016.
📉 Seems like a good idea to take note of the above and get out of gold, enter again during new lows
📈 BTCUSD / Crypto
We didn't have an overwhelming amount of alts during that time, so only the Bitcoin USD chart can give an idea of what may happen to crypto after a debt ceiling is announced. Interesting to note that BTC rallies almost parabolically and reaches it's first ATH. Then, at the same time the debt crisis is announced. Bitcoin continues into a multi year bear market, only to recover in Jan 2016.
📉 Do I really need to share my unpopular opinion here ... It all depends on how much you believe in history repeating itself.
📈 USOIL / OIL Industry
The oil industry sees the second worst bear market yet, only recovers in Jan 2016 but does not make a higher high until 2020.
📉 Oil saw a sharp v Shape recovery after the announcement of Covid. Oil is still in higher demand than usual considering scarcities so I believe there is another push upwards towards the 3.618 Fibonacci Extension, also the next immediate resistance zone around 200.
📈 EURUSD / strength of the Euro
The announcement of the 2013 debt ceiling sends the Euro into a bear trend against the dollar, bottoming out at 0.76 three years later, again only in 2016.
📉 Euro recently saw a strong V Shaped recovery, but considering the next point you may want to rethink holding Euros:
📈 DXY / Dollar Strength Index
In comparison by percentage, the DXY surpasses every other market. The DXY increases nearly parabolically over this period of time all the way until November 2016. Which naturally ames sense because when there is talks of an economic crises, people tend to sell their assets for CASH which would explain why markets dropped but DXY increases due to higher demand.
📉 Dollars gain against all in Forex markets.
Here's more info on the debt ceiling and what happens if a country defaults:
What are your thoughts on this?
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VTI massive monthly Head and Shoulders VTI has a monthly bearish divergence in RSI. There is massive head and shoulders forming. Headlines coming about how money is flowing in. I believe they just want money to flow in so they can have liquidity to dump into. The market has had the most orderly decline this year that I know of. I still believe massive downside is in store for ETF's, blue chips that haven't fallen yet (AHEM $AAPL) and oil as well after the fantastic year it just had. We have been goin straight up since GFC and now it's time to give some back. Hopefully not too much. First price target is green ray.
Santa rally or the grinch that stole Christmas?Will we have a Santa rally or the grinch that stole Christmas? Here's the US Equity market VTI etf December stats pattern search. The past 13 years (baker's dozen) December is historically bullish probability wise.
December 2009 - 2022
10 bull December
3 bear December
77% odds bull
23% odds bear
Average bull percent = +2.37%
Average bear percent = -4.32%
Forecast bull price = $208.90
Forecast bear price = $195.24
November 2022 close = $204.06
1 month moving averages:
EMA12 = $203.45
SMA24 = $212.43
SMA50 = $180.96
SMA100 = $149.01
December 2009 = +2.21%
December 2010 = +6.39%
December 2011 = +0.41%
December 2012 = +0.55%
December 2013 = +2.19%
December 2014 = -0.56%
December 2015 = -2.68%
December 2016 = +1.35%
December 2017 = +0.67%
December 2018 = -9.71%
December 2019 = +2.25%
December 2020 = +4.25%
December 2021 = +3.42%
December 2022 = ?%
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
Markets topped at RSI 50-55 all year Nothing fancy, US stocks are in a downtrend with downward pressure by a falling 50-week MA.
RSI of 50-55 has been the upper bound of RSI all year and coincided with tops in January, March, and August.
The 200-week MA is still rising and may provide near term support. However, in recessions this support is decisively broken (see 2020 and 2008). Given the velocity of the market downtrend, whether the 200-week MA will be upheld may be answered within the next 6 months.
Markets are chopping lower, navigate markets carefully.
Comparing Vanguard to BTC In both of these charts, you can see the correlation between 2 sectors that had if not IDENTICAL run ups due to their nature of being overbought and unregulated. (housing crisis of 08 vs Crypto crisis of 2022)
As of now we are still on our path downwards. The housing crisis took until Nov 2007 to late 2009 to start on the path of recovery. We know cryptocurrency is here to stay and the technological advances in our payments systems and the way we book keep and communicate will eventually if not be on blockchains.
Being that it took us 2 years to recover from the housing crash by implementing regs such as Dodd Frank and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, ext. we have a much more investor friendly housing market. Crypto will soon be on that path with regulations. 2023 should be a ideal year to add to short positions or even build upon current ones. However 2024 it would be unsafe to carry that mentality. Regardless of who is president, this market sentiment will turn around and 2024 we can expect a reversal.
US Election patternIs there a US Election month pattern? US Federal elections are always on the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November. This year election day is tomorrow, Tuesday 11/8. Statistically speaking November is a bullish month for US equities. As you can see here on the VTI 1month chart for the past dozen years, 10 out of 11 times November has closed with a green candlestick. Will this November 2022 become 11 out of 12 green monthly candlesticks? If so, that would mean VTI would have to close above $196 by the end of this month. Only time will tell for certain, but probability wise, November has a high probability for having a bullish end result.
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
VTI - Broad Index Fund (Sp500)Vti is the entire SP500 index fund with low cost. If you have no clue about companies and stuff and still want to be part of USA who is biggest economy in the world at the moment, VTI is your go to. Markets are struggling so i wanted to look HTF charts and best possible prices to accumilate over time.
Fibonacci is great tool for long term price targets. 0.5 is great start, 0.618-66 golden ratio zone are perfect.
You'll thank me 5-10years later.
