Wynn Resorts WYNN - Big triangle implies downside potential Big distribution pattern could be finishing here with a multi-month triangle formation.
Looking at the recent trading range that WYNN has been in and projecting that down gives a target under $170 and more aggressive targets are made by assuming the move off of the high will repeat itself from the apex of the triangle, which implies $145.
Either way, WYNN is an expensive stock at nearly 3.5 times sales, but it has been growing its revenues steadily at a high pace and with good profit margins. However, expectations are high and lately analysts have been lowering estimates a little. Any weakness to margins or revenue growth and this stock could come tumbling down in short order.
Risk is awaiting in the form of earnings due in 20 days. Keep that in mind when holding shorts. Perhaps we can cover most before earnings are due and leave some on the table for a possible big profit on a weaker than expected report.
Tim 201.53 last 11:10AM EST 7/15/2014
WYNN trade ideas
Wynn Resorts WYNN - Daily to 2008 - Bloated Valuation target 160Wynn Resorts - WYNN - Daily chart shows a large 12-fold+ return from the lows in 2009 to the blow off peak in 2014. Investors have oscillated between paying under 1.9x's sales for WYNN, highlighted in bright green, and 3.7x's sales, highlighted in brilliant red.
Note that margins are on a cyclical peak and optimism abounds for the future of WYNN since it has a premium valuation.
You could make a technical case, like the time in 2011 that it is tracing out a distribution pattern, often-times remarked as a "head & shoulders pattern". Perhaps under the surface there has been a lack of new buying and perhaps some "smart money" is unloading shares up here to take advantage of these PREMIUM prices.
The headlines are seemingly bullish, with strong growth in revenues, but they have come up short of high expectations. I think that is what investors should expect in WYNN going forward - more "digestion" and sideways to lower price action until you catch up to the lower green band traveling across the chart at the 160-100 level and rising at about 10-15% a year.
WYNN 208.73 last -9.29 -4.26% today after 9% sales growth in Macau.
Strategy, sell short above today's high in tomorrow's trading. Risk 225. Target 188 initially.
Tim 2:21PM EST June 3, 2014
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