XLK trade ideas
ROTATION FROM 'GROWTH' TO 'DEFENSIVE' OVER LAST 10 DAYSCHART DISPLAYS LAST 30 DAYS
Utilities ($XLU) outperforming the broader market as represented by ($SPY) and growth oriented, tech based, sub-sector ($XLK) over the last 30 days.
This has a correlation with an increased 'potential' for instances of heightened, near term (2 to 4 weeks) market volatility.
During the recent selloff we can see that the 'bids' did not push the broader market as represented by ($SPY) or the S&P 500 tech sector ($XLK) back over its pre-selloff top. On the other hand, the market did buy the utilities (XLU) back up over its respective, pre-selloff top. (see yellow horizontal lines)
So utilities stay bid while tech and the broader market begin to falter. In my opinion this is what a rotation out of 'growth' ($XLK) from the last 6 weeks and into 'defensives'($XLU) looks like from a price structure perspective. I would interpret this as an expression of 'risk off' market sentiment going into 2023. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
Ascending TriangleNeutral until broken.
Price is trying to break the resistance line today.
Top 10 Holdings
Apple Inc
23.98%
Microsoft Corp
21.00%
Visa Inc Class A
4.11%
NVIDIA Corp
4.10%
Mastercard Inc Class A
3.40%
Broadcom Inc
2.30%
Cisco Systems Inc
2.28%
Accenture PLC Class A
2.18%
Salesforce Inc
1.96%
Adobe Inc
technology with bullish base needs to clear $130 to test C legI have a short term target of $130.00, after buyers stepped in and bought D leg of the bullish Cypher. Price action needs to clear C leg of the ABCD pattern, which would lead to a higher price action to C leg of the ABCD pattern.
Disclosure: I have calls on $tecl (3x technology bull)
Tech will continue to rise and build baselooking for $xlk index to continue bullish momentum into next week and at least hit B leg. Notice the rising bear flag into the previous highs. I would like to be out before the apex complex and give way to another direction or even if a continuation direction. Price action expected to move to $140 area. There is a base building, and likely will need a handle to support. At that time, possible bearish position will be created.
Not trading or investment advice. Just for my education, learning, and trading experience.
Bad days ahead of Tech/REITs and Industrial stocksAs per reports coming out from IMF, Bank of Finland, JP Morgen Chase and many others, the situation is not going to be better in 2023.
The FED QT seems to worsen the situation, and counter-effect may be faced with stagflation.
The last IMF report is talking about more difficult economic situation in 2023/2024 with IR coming down around 4%, but unfortunately this will not help alot to relaunch the world economy.
Probable short opportunities - Long term - LEAPS
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLI
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund XLB
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund XLRE
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF VNQ
Probable Long or neutral opportunities - Medium term - 6 to 12 months
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR XLY
Trade on your risk, and keep a lot of cash for future opportunities.
Good luck,
Sam
*Not financial advice, trade on your own risk.
$MNDT Outpaces its Sectorial Peers The technology sector has played a leading role in powering the market's gains over the past couple of decades. Tech's ability to shape almost every industry means the sector remains one of the best starting places for investors seeking big gains, even during this bearish market.
My top pick for this sector is MNDT, a cybersecurity disruptor that is a winner for your growing portfolio today. As seen in the chart, MNDT (+31.94% YTD) is far-outperforming its sectoral peers as tech has taken a double-digit tumble in recent months. For instance, mega cap tech companies such as MSFT (-17.90% YTD), APPL (-12% YTD) and GOOGL (-20.60% YTD) have all underperformed relative to MNDT. This is the case too for FTNT, a fellow cybersecurity player, which has registered a 9% decline YTD despite outpacing the broader tech sector as a whole. Sectoral cybersecurity ETF’s like BUG (-16%), XLK (-18%) and CIBR (-18%) also lag far behind MNDT’s YTD gains. Relative to QQQ, MNDT has outpaced the Nasdaq baseline by some 50%, indicating just how bullish this stock is against the backdrop of an ongoing bear market.