XLK daily evening star reversal at .38 fibonacci retracementOrder SELL XLK ARCA Stop 124.64 LMT 124.64 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST
XLK daily evening star reversal at .38 fibonacci retracement wave 3 of wave C correction.
XLK trade ideas
technology with bullish base needs to clear $130 to test C legI have a short term target of $130.00, after buyers stepped in and bought D leg of the bullish Cypher. Price action needs to clear C leg of the ABCD pattern, which would lead to a higher price action to C leg of the ABCD pattern.
Disclosure: I have calls on $tecl (3x technology bull)
XLK Technology Sector: Signals of DivergenceAs the growth sector #XLK and #NDX makes lower lows there are spots of divergence displaying, which could pose as some upward impulses this week. In that case it could help to normalize a temporary ‘higher low’ in terms of the holistic outlook.
My TradingView charts (found at #bsdvs23) have mostly been bearish across the board with a few ‘potential’ bullish intraday traders here-and-there based on the broader technical structure. But that is neither here nor there since the major outlook of the trends is what is most important.
All that being said, signs of divergence are now signaling that this area of ‘the higher low’ (big picture) could be setting up for the next leg upward impulse movement in an effort of retesting the lower highs. Granted this will take ‘time and price’ to get to that level and coincidentally coincides with the major earnings session upon us.
And I should point out the bearish side of things as well to ensure the audience has the perspective of both sides here. The downside risk is the markets heading for those March lows. Something I have been very focused on the entire month of April in my YouTube videos, Facebook posts, and postings within TradingView.
All-in-all, divergence is poking its head and that should provide caution to the wind for the bears.
We will keep watch and monitor the Futures Markets as well as the sector spiders and other stocks for turning points going into the economic events this week as I will notate those below.
Mon, Apr 18
- 10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index
- Day 1 IMF Meetings
- 4:00pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Tue, Apr 19
- 8:30am Building Permits
- Housing Starts
- Day 2 IMF Meetings
Wed, Apr 20
- 10:00am Existing Home Sales
- Day 3 IMF Meetings
- 10:30am Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00pm Beige Book
Thu, Apr 21
- 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment Claims
- 10:00am CB Leading Index
- Day 4 IMF Meetings
- 10:30am Natural Gas Storage
- 1:00pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Fri, Apr 22
- 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI
- Flash Services PMI
Tech will continue to rise and build baselooking for $xlk index to continue bullish momentum into next week and at least hit B leg. Notice the rising bear flag into the previous highs. I would like to be out before the apex complex and give way to another direction or even if a continuation direction. Price action expected to move to $140 area. There is a base building, and likely will need a handle to support. At that time, possible bearish position will be created.
Not trading or investment advice. Just for my education, learning, and trading experience.
Bad days ahead of Tech/REITs and Industrial stocksAs per reports coming out from IMF, Bank of Finland, JP Morgen Chase and many others, the situation is not going to be better in 2023.
The FED QT seems to worsen the situation, and counter-effect may be faced with stagflation.
The last IMF report is talking about more difficult economic situation in 2023/2024 with IR coming down around 4%, but unfortunately this will not help alot to relaunch the world economy.
Probable short opportunities - Long term - LEAPS
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLI
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund XLB
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund XLRE
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF VNQ
Probable Long or neutral opportunities - Medium term - 6 to 12 months
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR XLY
Trade on your risk, and keep a lot of cash for future opportunities.
Good luck,
Sam
*Not financial advice, trade on your own risk.
$MNDT Outpaces its Sectorial Peers The technology sector has played a leading role in powering the market's gains over the past couple of decades. Tech's ability to shape almost every industry means the sector remains one of the best starting places for investors seeking big gains, even during this bearish market.
My top pick for this sector is MNDT, a cybersecurity disruptor that is a winner for your growing portfolio today. As seen in the chart, MNDT (+31.94% YTD) is far-outperforming its sectoral peers as tech has taken a double-digit tumble in recent months. For instance, mega cap tech companies such as MSFT (-17.90% YTD), APPL (-12% YTD) and GOOGL (-20.60% YTD) have all underperformed relative to MNDT. This is the case too for FTNT, a fellow cybersecurity player, which has registered a 9% decline YTD despite outpacing the broader tech sector as a whole. Sectoral cybersecurity ETF’s like BUG (-16%), XLK (-18%) and CIBR (-18%) also lag far behind MNDT’s YTD gains. Relative to QQQ, MNDT has outpaced the Nasdaq baseline by some 50%, indicating just how bullish this stock is against the backdrop of an ongoing bear market.
XLK , SHORT I would consider this a C trade.
Here's why
Cons
1) the stop is far ,
2) missed the little pop at the end of day , could have had a slightly better stop vs entry distance ( I did enter in final 30 min per my
rules , however ...)
3) we have not cleared the range, big bars are common in ranges .
4) LL , DB , MTR could be a possibility , would have rather seen several more bull days , perhaps a rally to Apri 18th low to reject
before getting my entry.... ( lower low , double bottom , major trend reversal )
Pros
1) Bulls failed to have follow through from yesterdays FOMC rally signal candle
2) Stage 4 downtrend w/ death cross valid
3) If we do breakdown more bears will sell the entry candle and follow-through candle ...
4) Possibility for a measured move down
5) Valid signal per my strat and market in RTM ( red trading mode )
Ultimately I have taken the trade anyways because I have been waiting for this and even though its a weak signal , it is a signal. I have gotten more defensive on my de risk plan too though ....
I am taking profits on 1/3 at 1R and there I will switch to BE stop .... then will cover another 1/3 at 2R , then sell the rest on a close above 10/21 ema's.
Stop 147.01
PT 133.49
