Support = Buy , Resistance = Sell, is it correct ?I was too naive to think that after reviewing 10 to 20 charts and seeing a pattern where price bounce off from support and retrace from resistance, I formed a bias view to buy at support and sell at resistance.
Of course, over the long haul, my results proved that I was wrong. On certain occasions, I would like to think I probably enjoyed a stroke of luck to get them right by following this train of thoughts.
I have often said the Market is way too smart to be predicted and it is a futile exercise (at least for me). From this XLK chart, we can see that it has just break out of the resistance level at 102.74 and the last bullish candle signals it would continue to trend higher.
I use Amazon chart as an example to illustrate. If one thinks that upon resistance, the price MUST falls, then they would have missed another 27% returns.
XLK trade ideas
$XLK First Red Day Short IdeaXLK looks really good for new 52 highs but with Dividends being paid out today, looking for a slight pull back to $101s. In a better market environment I would not be Bearish, but I will turn Bullish if breakout above $104.
Tech is a bit overvalued in my opinion, but looks like folks seem okay paying overvalued.
XLK - 2 bearish (and 1 bullish) counts for US tech stocksIt might look a bit foolish to bet against US tech with the action of the last 11 (even 20+) years but both these counts reckon there might be room for a decent correction (blue count) and for a much larger and prolonged correction (red count) . (There is another variation for the red count that suggests the correction that began in 2018 finished a running flat in March 2020 and what we are experiencing now is in fact the early stages of wave 5.) Personally, I like the blue count......
GoNoGo senses moment of truth for technologyWhat’s next for the technology sector?
Technology has been the leader this year, outperforming the S&P 500 throughout the volatile market reactions to Covid-19.
This week saw the sector fail at prior highs and yesterday’s price bar showed a weakening in the GoNoGo Trend.
Look to the GoNoGo Oscillator at this critical juncture. When in a strong trend, remember, the Oscillator should find support/resistance at the zero line. You can see this throughout the time period.
This is a non subjective level because it means that all momentum is neutral. In a strong uptrend for example, enthusiasm should pick up, and the GoNoGo Oscillator should rally off the zero line helping price make a new leg up.
If the GoNoGo Oscillator cannot stay positive and breaks below zero, then we expect price to struggle and the “Go” trend to really be threatened.
XLK doughAnalysis done on 25/05/2020
Fundamental
→ 20 & 40 SMA sloping up
→ 20MA > 40MA
Awaiting buy trigger
→ CCI <-100
→ Low of daily bar touches 20MA or goes below 20MA
→ Close above 40MA
Pull trigger
→ Buy 1 bid above previous day high
→ Sell 5 bars later exclusive of initial bar
Stop Loss
→ 50% below price bought
Weekly Naked Puts for XLKMACD shows the loss of momentum for the uptrend at the key resistance level, with an additional confirmation of divergence on the stochastic.
I assume market could be going south from here.
The concern for the trade is EMA(15) might act as a support. That's a factor that adds to the risk of this trade.
Tech vs FinancialsNothing but new highs in Tech vs Financials... Not likely to see a reversal in the trend of growth over value if this ratio keeps trending higher. $XLK > $XLF
Click the related idea link to see our long term chart of Broker-Dealers & Exchanges. This important and leading subsector is now trapped beneath significant overhead supply So are Banks, both of which are dragging on $XLF itself. Meanwhile, Tech and many of its subsector groups are getting awfully close to retesting their all-time highs.
Basically, we're seeing no evidence of this trend reversing, we're seeing just the opposite.
Get XLK to gain exposure to top Tech companies in USAA good and inexpensive way to gain exposure to an industry sector is to buy an ETF instead of the individual companies. For example, I have missed buying Microsoft, Visa, etc so I can buy XLK ETF which gives me access to other companies as well. See here for the full list.
We can see from the Day chart that there are gaps on the upside and the downside awaiting to be filled up. So long as the bullish trend line remain intact and price action continues to heads up, then we can infer the gaps (in blue) will be filled up. Alternatively, if the price action breaks down from the trend line, then we can expect gaps (yellow) to be filled up.
I see some resistance at 89.39. This level needs to be break out before we see a price continuation pattern.
XLK Worst Case ScenarioThis assumes the economy goes into recession. The declines and time frame mirror 2008, but given the speed of the decline, it seems like the time frame should be different. It's still very early to tell, so this is very much a rough estimate but a potential scenario nonetheless.