XLV trade ideas
Healthcare Defensive at limitNote the pullbacks are always around Dec-Jan as well. Strong candidate for shorting here, and tends to come off fast.
Sell 104, SL 106.50, TP 96, RR 3.2.
XLV - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF and its current landscape.
The opioid crisis has been plaguing the U.S at the most for nearly two years now. With scary numbers like the record of 47,600* overdose deaths caused by opioids in 2017 but the number seems to start slowdown since 2018 were the war against opioids gained some traction.
In the justice field, some companies have already faced some sort of rebuke for involvement and even a bit of responsibility for the opioid crisis. For example
*Jun 2019, Insys Therapeutics Inc. had to file for bankruptcy after being convicted for conspiring to bribe doctors to increase opioid sales, ending up in a deal with the federal government of $225 million.
* Aug 2019, Johnson & Johnson was obligated to pay $572 Million, as Oklahoma ruled that the company intentionally played down the dangers and oversold the benefits of opioids.
* Oct 2019, Johnson & Johnson was once more condemned by two counties of Ohio to pay $20.4 million, with the accusation of having helped the opioid crisis to spread.
Now, that several healthcare companies are under investigation by the Federal Prosecutors in Brooklyn, into whether the company intentionally permitted that flood of opioids on the community. For now the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of New York it's just issuing subpoenas, but if they case sticks we might see what the murders of Julius Caesar saw, a pile of fire and anger from the people, so big that like Caesar butchers that were cast out of the city, the companies involved on this process can be drowned in liabilities and fines with the risk to be so badly damaged that may have the same fate of Insys Therapeutics Inc.and might hit this ETF that holds great exposure in the sector. The war against opioids it's just poised to grow up as every justice department across the country and every candidate that it's next to run on elections its eager to hang this trophy on the wall.
*Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
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XLV uptrend continuesThis technical analysis was conducted using the Swing•Genie Cycles swing trading indicator on a 2-day chart. It typically takes between 1 and 10 days from the time the Swing•Genie Cycles indicator prints a dot on the chart for the trend to demonstrably change. A green dot is a bullish signal, a red dot is a bearish signal. Swing trades using this system typically last 2 to 6 weeks.
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XLV currently breakingXLV weekly clearly shows a breakdown from a wide and loose triangle. will be looking for a short around 89-90 area.
EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE XLV SECTOR-TA(TREND ANALYSIS) 2019'EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE(XLV) SECTOR Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019.
There is really not much to say. Profits in the health care sector are very reliable on the cycle. Since Trump took office, the cycle extended, and hence it formed a channel as noted in the analysis.
One major risk that has always affected the health care sector is regulation and political pressures . In the upcoming 2020 election, if the Democrats(pro-regulation) take office, there might be major implications to the health care sector.
In any case, 50 Quarterly/200 Monthly MA(Orange line) would be the Long-term Supports , in case the current bullish channel breaks. Structural supports are marked with Purple squares.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>> I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories .>>
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Check my previous episodes on the US Sectors in the links to related ideas down below .
EPISODE 3 : TECH
EPISODE 2 : ENERGY
* Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
XLV(daily). Symmetrical Triangle BO, Retest possible. RSI, OBV.XLV(daily).DT target. Symmetrical Triangle BO, Retest.
OBV confirmation.
XLV - Further UpsideI see inverse head and shoulders pattern being formed in XLV. Likelihood of further upside upon break of the neck line is higher.
High quality short against 200 daycans pec swing short from here witht he bearish engulf against 200 day as stop or wait for 5 and 10 to turn down and use those. Could be a big move coming here.
SPDR Healthcare Relative StrengthWhen SPDR Healthcare's relative strength (vs. S&P 500) and its 50MA are both above its 200MA, it signals S&P 500 is about to hit the top and drop.
When SPDR Healthcare's relative strength (vs. S&P 500) drops below its 50MA, it signals S&P 500 has bottomed out and will trend higher.
XLV recovering for SummerXLV pulled back sharply largely to do with a knee-jerk reaction to the Dems ‘Medicare for all’ (ie Europe-style government health service). Contrast this to the general Dec 2018 market collapse, and we see
- a 7.2% W1 rise
- a 50% W2 pullback
- a W3 repeating the move, and running to the 1.618 fib
The price carried on after December, but just anticipating a repeat of that move gives us an entry at 87.75 for 94.00. A 1.4% stop is comfortable (86.50) to give a 5:1 trade.
Healthcare is a typically strong summer defensive, and notably (on the daily chart), after the outlier of Dec 2018, kept in its long-term channel in the April collapse.
XLV SECTOR Wave A times 1.618 = Wave C DOWN AND IS A .666 Moving to a long net 40 to now 60% in all drugs and healthcare
XLV Cats don't die right awayXLV expecting a bounce some where here. Could push a V bottom at the 618 or flush the stops down to the ascending trend line then bounce.
#XLV Healthcare ETF-first out to activate it's head&shoulder?#XLV Healthcare ETF-first out to activate it's head&shoulder?
