XLV trade ideas
Iron Fly on XLV: HealthcareTook a Position here on XLV with an IRON FLY.
-2 XLV 16 Dec 16 62/67/67/72 Put/Put/Call/Call @ 3.13
Credit: 3.13 ($626)
Risk: 1.87 ($374)
Target: ~2.33 ($160)
Break evens are in green.
XLV Hillary electionExpectations for U.S. presidential elections as Hillary seens to make bad deals for healthcare sector
08.16.16 XLV SHORTMSZ w/ WSZ nested within and DSZ just created with the break of the ascending DTL. Expecting price to work back down to tested WDZ.
Failure test in XLVwe will see how trade will go. Respect the stop level. Market is overextended in my opinion and this trade works best in this conditions.
Too much green color XLVIf you look in the history of this chart you can see that after such a run alwas decline followed. Setup can be modified today if candel will be even higher, so you can enter into trade even beter risk reword.
Brakeout, Triangles, DescendingI don't think that some comment is necessary. Market is very unstable. FOMC was desapoint traders.
Healthcare,biotech, pharmaceuticals stocks looking AttractiveMoney flow is at the lowest point of 2016 attract
Healthcare weak but bounce to 72 likely Bounce to 72 to fill gap . no confirmation for direction yet but downside i believe immenant with so many sectors week and bear market looking more likely.
MACRO VIEW: XLV LOOKING GOOD, TESTING 5-YEAR UPTRENDHealth Care SPDR ETF is looking good on long term basis, testing its 5-year uptrend
On long term basis - XLV is trading firmly in 10 year uptrend (above 1st upper standard deviation from 10-year mean), but due to the recent August selloff the price is now testing its 5-year uptrend. If the price holds above the fist upper standard deviation from 5-year mean, the test will be passed, and the price will likely trend upwards from there.
On short term basis - XLF shows no particular trend, it is trading within 1st standard deviations from both 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive moment, as nothing on the short term stands in the way of long term trends.
XLV ShortYou can thank that little price hiking hedge fund manager and people like Bill Ackman for the Healthcare/Pharmaceutical correction. Looking at the weekly using Fibs as reference points i believe healthcare over the next few months will begin to sell. I have a target of the 1.618 extension of 59.76 and a second target of 53.31. I'm using XLV to short because everything else is too expensive... you can play this through ITM puts or buy a longterm out of the money put at a 62 or 60 strike for next year.
Feel free to leave comments or questions.
-Ryanhasoptions.
WEEK OF 9/28: NON-EARNINGS PLAYS FOR PREMIUM SELLING OPPSAlthough we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly awry such that you have to devote buying power to managing a tested side post-earnings, potentially for several options cycles going forward.
Since I have a play already going in OIH (current IVR at 66), I'm looking to add either index ETF trades this coming week or, in the alternative, sector ETF trades that are not correlated to what I've already got on in my portfolio and that have sufficiently high IVR so that a premium selling play is attractive.
Looking at the Dough Grid with the drop-down menu set to "TastyTrade", XLV is a possible candidate, with an IVR currently at 62 ... .
POSSIBLE TRADE:
Nov 20th 59/61/72/74 Iron Condor
POP % -- 61%
Max Profit: .61 credit/contract
Buying Power Effect: 1.39/contract
Break-Evens: 60.39/72.61
Delta: -2.36/contract
Notes: The short put side of the setup is placed around the 1 SD; the long side, at the edge of the expected move to the topside for that expiration. Due to the price of the underlying, the spread of the wings is reduced to 2 strikes, although you can certainly expand the width to 3 strikes in order to harvest more credit from the trade. I wouldn't go wider than 3, however. Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max duration.
In all likelihood, the strikes may require a bit of adjustment at NY York open to accommodate overnight, broader index price movement.
