XLY/XLPBearish RSI divergence & closing below pre-c0vid highs. Is the party over for growth stocks or is it still just consolidation?
XLY trade ideas
XLY XLP factors for 2022 and beyondQuick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart...
covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich
energy price increases and inflation has knobbled that spike and brought it way back down to earth with a lengthy recession in sight its good to review markets on these levels
have a great summer, stay sane with all the relentless BS spouted from the MSM everyday! if u feel under the weather, throw out your Te'lie'vision
Consumer DiscretionaryHello friends. The Consumer Discretionary ETF has suffered severe losses this year due to the fact that consumers are being drained of disposable income to be spent on things that are not "essential". If you can choose between watching Netflix and eating food, any sane human would choose to eat food. And the ones that would not, would shortly die off.
However we are starting to see signs that the XLY sector could be ready for a brief relief rally.
Inflation is starting to crash rapidly, and I have a strong conviction that July's numbers won't be nearly as high as people seem to think they will. In fact, I am expecting that we could see a negative CPI print. We will know on July 13th whether this is the case. If that happens, it will ease off some of the pressure on consumers wallets, which in turn will help this ETF.
The seasonality is positive for the next two weeks.
Insiders are starting to load up on XLY, which lead to gains within a 1 month time period 100% of the time (sample size of only n=3)
The increasingly high component correlation is also interesting, since it means that investors are going full Monkey Brain Scared Mode, and mashing the big red SELL button based on nothing but fear on every asset that is falling. From a backtest of every other time it has crossed above 0.7 (70%) correlation (n=6), we saw prices increase over the course of the next month 83% of the time.
The idea here is to simply buy XLY, and then sell it around 1 month later. So we can go ahead and buy it right now, and then sell it right at the end of July. The stop loss is optional.
Thanks for playing.
XLY swing long ideaHey all, I think XLY is setting up quite nicely for a rally towards the end of July. I think it is actually setting up quite similarly to how it did in March, and I went ahead and boxed where exactly I think we are in March. Regardless of if it is copying March or not, I think it has based quite nicely, and is definitely positioned to rally higher, though it is still in a macro downtrend.
Will you buy XLY soon ?Think of your daily Starbucks, burgers and fries from MacDonald, casual Nike shoes - I expect these stocks to continue to do well. Of course, there will always be a group of people who because of inflationary costs begin to cut down on these stuff but the MAJORITY will continue to be consumers !
WHY? Blame it on consumers behaviours - what you do daily consciously will become a subconscious habits. Imagine passing by your Starbucks store to get your share of caffeine kick daily and grabbing your burger for lunch. Will you start to whip out your calculator and start comparing if you should try other stores to save a dollar or more ?
Like I said, there will be some people who will do that but many of us won't! And it is for these sticky habits that drives the business of these Consumer Discretionary stocks to continue to rally.
Please DYODD.
XLY, SHORTForgot to post this with the other shorts last night ,
Position was de-risked at 1R this am and next target will be 2R , then ill run the balance , if the trade works .
new stop 153.5 ( half risk )
next target ( 2R ) 139.79
XLY/XLPFor me, risk on/risk off comes down to whether this ratio can hold this 0.618 retracement. Most markets I'm watching are essentially at inflection points. Feels like everything is waiting on the Fed tomorrow.
XLY SHORT ( 4th Attempt ) This is one trade that I honestly lost interest in because it kicked my butt, so far ;) , and then I missed the wedge drop on Friday busy at work. But in hindsight, that's just emotions and my regency bias making excuses. Simply put , I should have entered Friday on the wedge drop plain and simple at work or not ....
So, that being said, I decided that if I was still able to get a entry near Friday's close today, I would give this one another shot , because wedge drop is a wedge drop and market trend is down ...
The weekly chart actually has a wedge drop along with the daily and I especially like the rejection in the wicks we can see here on the weekly which is less apparent on the daily . Tesla and Amazon make up just over 21% weighting each ( just under 43% combined ) of this fund and both are arguably in stage 3 tops and have not broken down yet . So I think that will have a big influence on how this trade goes .
Whatever the case XLY itself is in a stage 4 decline , SPY is in a stage 4 decline and QQQ is in a stage 4 decline .
Entry 175.57
Stop 180.49
Target 165.75 ( de risk area )
Leapfrog the wonderful market possibilities!!!Boing, boing, boing!!! Should be a wonderful bouncing decade!!!!! All that free food gotta go somewhere, right???
XLY/XLPLower low here. Still looking for target at the 0.618 retracement. Might be a good spot to look for longs in growth stocks.
Cyclicals can't make itThe pressure is immense. Consumer getting less confident, supply chain disruptions still on, producers prices pressing the margins. No happy ending here
XLY , SHORT ( 3rd attempt short ) Well title says it all lol , another close under the 50 and significant moving averages but hidden support . Hourly range around the 50 sma here ....
Need to take out the wizard down at 176 area , he seems to be running low on mana though one side will win eventually ...
Put my stop a tiny bit higher this time around ...
Entry 178.52
Stop 182.76
PT 170.5
XLY, SHORT ( 2nd Attempt ) Trying this again .
Stage 4 decline
Recent Death cross
series of LL
and market is in RTM ( red trading mode ) both spy and qqq below 21 ema's on daily .
After being stopped out today in the am , price was not able to close strong, closed near the low of the daily range .
Below the 10/21 ema's , 200 ema and 50 sma.
Entry 176.3
Stop- 180.81
PT - 165.9 ( de risk )
XLY , SHORTMarket is in red trading mode , SPY and QQQ now both below their 21 emas.
XLY , Slightly stronger than XLY but we still were not able to follow through on out HH , so far at least .
We also have LL's though too . Stage 4 downtrend looks plausible at this point , might be forming a range ?
Entry 176.09
Stop 179.68
PT 168.92, sell half and go BE on stop
XLY Ready for the next leg down?XLY has rallied to and thru previous support on decreasing volume. It is currently oversold and retesting the previous swing high.
The main holdings in XLY are:
- Amazon
-Tesla
(these two make up over 35%)
-Home Depot
-Nike
-McDonald's
-Lowes
-Starbucks
-Target
-Booking
-TJX
Consumer disposable income is hovering around the Jan 2020 lows (fred.stlouisfed.org )
Inflation expectations continue to rise (www.clevelandfed.org)
As always, this is just food for thought!
XLY/XLPFailing 1.272 extension. I ultimately expect to see this ratio back at the 0.618 retracement (sub 2.00). As long as this ratio is under pressure, staples > discretionary stocks. If you're wondering how to play this, look up the holding in each etf. Look for shorts in stocks in XLY and longs in stocks in XLP.
Cyclicals to benefit from retail and housingA rebound is due - strong retail sales and housing stats will support the sector despite the growing inflation concerns.
Closed: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 2.24 debit.
Comments: Taking profit here ... . Filled for a 4.02 credit (See Post Below). Closing it out today for 2.24 results in a 1.78 ($178) profit.
Weak consumer discretionaryCooling off consumer confidence affects the sector despite raise in wages. Inflation puts even more pressure on demand
Opening: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 4.02 credit.
Comments: At the top of my exchange-traded fund list for implied volatility rank at 92 with a 39-day of 39.8%. Selling the 17's on both sides. 4.02 credit on buying power effect of 17.73; 22.7% ROC at max; 11.3% at 50% max.
XLY/XLPNearing a support zone after a false breakout of the 1.618 extension. Could see a bounce in growth stocks end of month into Feb if it holds. Given the false breakout, I anticipate this support zone to ultimately fail in the coming weeks/months.
XLY/XLPQuite the move today in the XLY/XLP ratio. Well below the 1.618 extension now. Longer it stays below, the harder it'll be for growth stocks to move up imo.
