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BRENT trade ideas

Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads" Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports. Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector. There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels. The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through. Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel) Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive. So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe. Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year. If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ). This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil. The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87. If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now. The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff. There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line. This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend. I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark. As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by RomanoRnr
1
bcoiloil is bearish. Motorists who are unsure which top-up oil to use in their car can now use a special text service to find out – while they wait. Recent research commissioned by Chevron Global Lubricants, part of Chevron Limited, which owns the Havoline brand, has shown the introduction of extended warranties and differing service intervals has left motorists confused about which top-up oil to use. Many are even delaying topping-up and risking unnecessary damage to their vehicle as a result.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by Mehrdad_at
1
The Price of Brent Oil Approaching the Highs of the YearThe price is driven up by: → the policy of limiting oil production by OPEC+ countries. For example, Saudi Arabia last week announced a cut in production by 1 million barrels per day until the end of September, adding that the decision could be extended. Russia is also reducing production volumes. We wrote about the scenario of increasing growth in the price of Brent oil due to production cuts in a post dated July 7; → hopes/rumors that the Chinese authorities will stimulate the economy, which is not recovering enough after the lifting of COVID-related restrictions. Selling pressure is driven by: → raising rates by Western central banks to fight high inflation. Under the influence of these and other factors, the price of Brent oil rose close to the highs of the year around USD 87 per barrel, forming an upward channel. At the same time, in August, the price bounced strongly from its lower border twice, indicating the strength of demand. On the other hand, the progress of the bulls in the formation of the August high is very small, if you compare this peak with the previous one, set on the 2nd of August — a sign of the exhaustion of the bullish momentum. It is reasonable to assume that the market can find a balance at current levels, and the price will enter the consolidation range, as holders of long positions can take profits after the increase in the price of Brent oil by more than 14% since July 1. At the same time, false breakdowns of the high of the year are not ruled out. Important levels: → USD 87.15 – resistance of the high of the year; → USD 86.45 – resistance from August high; → borders of the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
How long can the oil price rise? How long can the oil price rise? It’d be quite possible to see an extended uptrend with Brent retesting $97 later this year if sentiment in markets remains generally positive and fears of recession don’t clearly return. Oil can often trend for quite a long time compared to other popular CFDs, so if this is indeed a new main uptrend it might continue into the fourth quarter. However, sentiment will almost certainly change to some degree when significant activity returns to markets in September. Negatives for crude fundamentally include weaker economic data from China in recent months combined with Russia’s avoidance of sanctions by exporting through Saudi Arabia, though the latter specifically and OPEC+ generally seem to be determined to keep prices high. Equally, January’s high around $88.40 might be an important resistance which could resist testing. The main goal as a trader of oil during seasonally low volume is usually to avoid entries at extremes while trying to use support, moving averages and others to determine when a retracement becomes short-term downtrend.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Exness_Official
ukoil 8hours sell side 15% swing trade setup🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for brent oil . Noteworthy bounce in progress after accumulation near lows, however currently getting overbought. 🔸OPEC production cuts finally kicked it, therefore we got a decent pump in the oil market. Strong resistances overhead near 87.20 and 89.20, expecting bull trap setup after we break above the stop loss clusters. 🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: look out for bull trap setup near 90.60 and get ready to short sell from overhead. limited upside beyond 90.60 usd, bears will target re-test of mirror s/r level at 77.80 and 75.20 usd. this is a 15% swing trade setup on sell side, good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
28