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BRAZILIAN REAL / U.S. DOLLAR

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BRLUSD trade ideas

Brazilian BRL big pumpTrump took office and pleased just over half of the country** with his promise to *"Make America Great Again,"* likely harkening back to his glory days in the 30 years, when he used deals and bravado to get what he wanted. Unfortunately, times have changed. Brazil, a major agricultural powerhouse – which Trump once claimed not to depend on "at all" – has solid plans to strengthen BRICS, with China and Russia as key partners. This has given the Brazilian Real significant strength against the usd and the Euro, because in a world of 8 billion people, only those who refuse to see are blind: **food is the new gold**.
Short
by gotchgo
The Truth About Brazil’s Economy: Is the Real Near R$6.63?It’s becoming clear that the market is no longer buying into the government’s optimistic narrative. The promise to eliminate the fiscal deficit, for example, has already lost momentum. What the market sees, in practice, is a series of populist measures and little fiscal responsibility. The exchange rate reflects this reality. The real, already weakened, remains highly vulnerable to any internal shocks — whether it's political noise or disappointing economic data. 📉 Why do I believe the dollar could reach R$ 6.63? 1️⃣ Fiscal Situation Weighs Heavily Brazil is spending more than it collects, and public accounts remain under pressure. The market no longer believes that the government will achieve balance without significant spending cuts. Promises alone don’t pay the bills — and anyone involved in currency trading knows that. 2️⃣ The Dollar Remains Strong Abroad In the U.S., the Federal Reserve continues its firm stance on fighting inflation. This strengthens the dollar globally, which in turn puts additional pressure on emerging market currencies — and the real is no exception. 3️⃣ Weak Economic Growth Without a Solid Foundation Even with the growth Brazil has seen, it becomes irrelevant when viewed in the context of irresponsible fiscal management. Instead of being celebrated, this growth raises questions about its sustainability. The market knows that growth without structural adjustments is unsustainable — and Brazil hasn’t shown any commitment to addressing its weaknesses. The increase in GDP ends up overshadowed by populist measures and a lack of spending cuts. Without fiscal balance, growth turns into a house of cards that collapses at the first sign of instability. For investors, the risk of holding positions in the real remains high, especially as necessary reforms continue to be postponed. The Result? The market remains cautious, pricing in uncertainty and distrust. 📢 Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here are for informational purposes only and reflect personal market analyses. They do not constitute investment advice. The currency market is volatile and carries significant risks. Always consider your investor profile and seek professional guidance before making any financial decisions.
Long
by Igor-Silva
1
Can the Brazilian Real Survive its Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate world of global finance, few narratives are as compelling as Brazil's current economic crucible. The Brazilian real stands at a precipice, buffeted by a confluence of domestic policy missteps and international economic pressures that challenge the very foundations of its monetary stability. President Lula's administration finds itself wrestling with a complex challenge: balancing ambitious social spending with the cold, hard realities of fiscal discipline. The currency's dramatic decline—losing nearly 20% of its value in recent months—represents more than a mere statistical fluctuation. It is a profound referendum on investor confidence, reflecting deep-seated concerns about Brazil's economic management. The potential depreciation to 7 reals per dollar looms like a specter, threatening to unleash inflationary pressures that could destabilize the entire economic ecosystem, from local markets to international trade relationships. What emerges is a high-stakes economic drama with global implications. The Brazilian real's struggle is not just a national issue, but a microcosm of the broader challenges facing emerging economies in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape. As central bank governors, international investors, and policymakers watch with bated breath, Brazil stands at a critical juncture—its choices will not only determine its economic trajectory but potentially reshape perceptions of emerging market resilience in the face of unprecedented economic volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDBRL might be building its 3rd impulsive wave.Not a financial advice. To support Biden's plan "Invest in America", FED will need to keep raising interest rates to contain #inflation, and make it attractive for international investors. Meanwhile, Brazilian economy is shrinking, with President looking to lower interest rates which it is what was done in 2003. but this time is indeed different, since the USA isn't willing to see its money plowing into emerging markets. TVC:DXY is also building a nice comeback. this is momentarily about to change in my POV.
Long
by thepixel
7
USDBRL_1W_Buyhello Analysis of the Brazilian real in the medium and long term Elliott wave analysis style The market is in an upward trend and in the medium term we are in wave 3, which wave 3 includes 5 waves. The target of wave 3 is 6.5500 and again we can have a correction as wave 4 to 5.8800 and continue to climb for the big wave 5 towards 7.4400 Sincerely, I am a dear Brazilian and the country is extremely beautiful and the entire continent of America ends in the great country of Brazil. I traveled around the continent of America in 2024 and I have not seen a country like Brazil, especially Sao Paulo. I wish all the best for Brazil
Long
by Elliottwaveofficial
4
U.S DOLLAR vs BRAZILIAN REALHowdy fellas, I am Brazilian by origin so this matters to me. It's a chart that I always check, as I every now and then exchange these currencies (as well as the euro related to Brazilian real). Now we all know at some point the dollar index needs to take a step back and retrace. It could continue to push higher against other world currencies, but that wouldn't be very good. So unless we're headed for a new world depression, I believe the Gods will allow it do drop. With that being said, a very decent retrace is the 30% mark that brings it down to the $4 bucks. But if it repeats the 60% retrace as it did back in 2008 we're looking a much lower numbers. Take a look at the chart my friends and let me know what you think. Trade thirsty!
by mr_willmedina
2
Send this down to 1 and its over for USDBRICS composite basket index vs USD BRICS currently accounts for 40%+ of the global population and 25%+ of global trade. Lessening reliance on USD will benefit their economies greatly regards cross border trade amongst members. Current additional applications to join the bloc have been received from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria, Venezuela, Kazakhstan (all major energy markets) amongst others. All empires rise and fall, both economic and geographic... some more destructive than others. One to keep an eye on over next century.
Short
by LordEido
2