BRLUSD trade ideas
#BRICS currencies movement for the Week - 22Feb19Fairly stable week for most BRICS #currencies, thanks to some USD weakness. #SouthAfrica recovering some of last weeks losses. #BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -1.3%
Russia +1.4%
India +0.4%
China +0.9%
South Africa +0.5%
Euro/USD +0.4%
I must admit that the one currency that is looking mighty interesting technically this week, is the Brazilian Real. At 0.2664/USD it is not only finding itself close to the 50-day moving average at 0.2652/USD, but also at a nice little trend resistance line. A bounce off these levels could see us test the short-term highs made in both January this year and October 2018 – target 0.2744/USD . Should the current resistance break, traders should watch the 200-day moving average at 0.2608/USD as first target/stop.
USDBRL - Downtrend line resistanceIn the graph we can see the primary line (yellow 55 days) and secondary line (green 21 days) are still point down. The downs and ups of peaks and troughs are getting lower peaks and lower troughs. We can draw a downtrend line connecting the peaks, is a resistance line.
For tomorrow we can expect the downtrend line act as a resistance around 3.73 and if the price goes down we can see the next support 3.68, 3.64, 3.60.
More USD Dollar for your money!Time to take profit. If the pattern H&S works, targets are in the chart.
Avoid if cross $4.00 with strong bulls.
Queda no Preço do USD ao BRLO preço do Dolar Americano no câmbio USD BRL continuará a cair amanhã conforme minha previsão, baseada em análises técnica e fundamentalista. Vista, aquela, no gráfico de 15 minutos.
E deve continiar a cair no mês de fevereiro de 2019, até a faixa entre os preços de R$3,3480 e R$3,1149, mas pode descer até R$3,0415, conforme o gráfico semanal.
Great Opportunity - ShortUSD / BRL is testing important support and can break down with an H & S. If the break down is confirmed, it will search for the following targets. The first target is easy, very likely. The latter is a difficult target, indicating the maximum range of H & S.
USDBRL shorter term targets Small bull div could take us to 3.7-3.8 but my targets of 3.58 and 3.43 stand. Februrary-April.
Let's get that 0.4 lost level shall weBullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Lost 0.4 level wasnt retested. What's more to say?
Será que vem queda por ai ?Grafico semanal do Dólar, bateu no topo anterior e está configurando um OCO perfeito, abaixando da neckline tem alvos na faixa de 3,30
A drop is coming!The risk reward is far too for me not to post it! The bottom is near. Interesting how this correlates with my DXY long-term view!
BRLUSD Inverse H&SThis relates to the recent market crash being seen in the S&P 500 Index.
Long order should only be triggered at the breakout of the neckline.
Brasil In Trouble In My View... This chart is so bullish. Cup and handle..
In two years this can crash..
Dollar is losing strength!With that bounce, i must assume that we've officially have put our "b" (these b waves can be tricky to catch them), and now we're going for deep correction. If we do make a new high from here, this count will be completely invalidated.
Dollar is losing strength! With that bounce, i must assume that we've officially have put our "b" (these b waves can be tricky to catch them), and now we're going for deep correction. If we do make a new high from here, this count will be completely invalidated.
head and shoulders (?)Hi, Im hoping for an head and shoulders formation here. Waitng for the candles to test daily support level. If it bounces back it can probably come down hard, if it breaks through it can go up and test the monthly level.
For now Im just waiting for confirmation at daily zones.
Some relief for the brazilians!Seems like we've have put our "B"! Looking for continuation of the downtrend now, to complete our C. Will do further anaylsis as soon as my target gets hit! I consider this a low risk trade.
USD BRL - Cup And HandleHandle for 2018 and 2019 between 3.50 / 3.90
Then, by the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2019 starts new trend, following to the target of the cup and handle, or breaking the support.
My outlook for the USD/BRLCaptain Bolsonaro was elected, my outlook for the dollar, if all goes as expected, riding an economy team with talking heads, and propagating free trade, tax cuts, partnership with the US, privatization, reforms in legislation and social security, things for the year 2019, the dollar according to my studies, will have the following movement:
The dollar is currently priced at R $ 3.69, coming from a high of R $ 4.20. For the first half of November, the dollar could reach R $ 3.50 with a recovery to R $ 3.66, where it could break down to R $ 3.20 at the turn of the year from 2018 to 2019.
With the inauguration of Bolsonaro in January 2019 and then the other parliamentarians in February, the dollar could reach anything between R $ 3,20 and R $ 3,10.
With the beginning of the de facto government and progress of the reform projects, the dollar could reach R $ 2.85 by the end of May 2019.
A "quick" fall, but that can be guaranteed with the improvement in Brazil's risk rating.
This is only for the beginning. Further forecasting is necessary to verify the progress of the approval of the necessary bills to give breath to the creation of jobs, through the so-called "Green and Yellow Wallet" where it would be an employment system in the American way, that is, free of moorings bureaucratic, as well as passing bills to reduce taxes and the long-awaited privatization.
However, I venture to say, in an optimistic perspective, that by the middle of the year 2020, the dollar will be between R $ 2.50 and R $ 2.40; in the middle of the year 2021, something around R $ 2.30 and R $ 2.25; and in the middle of the year 2022, something between $ 2.00 and $ 1.80.
Bolsonaro having succeeded in the government, and consequently re-elected, the dollar could reach R $ 1.30, at the end of the year 2022, making Brazil part of well-developed economically countries like Canada, Australia and England!
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Capitão Bolsonaro foi eleito, minha perspectiva para o dólar, se tudo sair conforme o esperado, montando uma equipe de economia com cabeças pensantes, e propagando o livre comércio, redução de impostos, parceria com os EUA, privatizações, reformas na legislação e previdência, coisas para o ano de 2019, o dólar de acordo com meus estudos, terá o seguinte movimento:
O dólar está no momento cotado a R$ 3,69, vindo de uma alta de R$ 4,20. Para até a metade de novembro o dólar pode chegar a R$ 3,50 com uma recuperação para R$ 3,66, onde poderá partir abaixo para R$ 3,20 na virada de ano de 2018 para 2019.
Com a posse de Bolsonaro em janeiro de 2019 e em seguida dos demais parlamentares em fevereiro, o dólar pode chegar a algo entre R$ 3,20 e R$ 3,10.
Com o início do governo de fato e andamento dos projetos de reformas, o dólar pode chegar a R$ 2,85 até o fim de maio de 2019.
Uma queda "rápida", mas que pode ser garantida com o aumento não só da melhora no "rating", ou classificação de risco do Brasil.
Isso é apenas para o início. Previsão mais à frente é necessário verificar o andamento da aprovação dos projetos de lei necessário para dar fôlego à criação de empregos, por meio da chamada "Carteira Verde e Amarelo" onde seria um sistema empregatício aos moldes do americano, ou seja, livre de amarras burocráticas, além de aprovação de projetos de lei para redução de impostos e as tão esperadas privatizações.
No entanto, me arrisco a dizer, numa perspectiva otimista, que por volta do meio do ano de 2020, o dólar esteja entre R$ 2,50 e R$ 2,40; no meio do ano de 2021, algo em torno de R$ 2,30 e R$ 2,25; e no meio do ano de 2022, algo entre R$ 2,00 e R$ 1,80.
Bolsonaro tendo sucesso no governo e, consequentemente se reelegendo, o dólar poderá ir a R$ 1,30, ao final do ano de 2022, fazendo então o Brasil parte de países bem desenvolvidos economicamente como Canadá, Austrália e Inglaterra!
