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BRAZILIAN REAL / U.S. DOLLAR

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BRLUSD trade ideas

Dollar / Real (Brazil) possible targetting higher levelsTarget one is reached. Usually after a beautiful cup and handle like this one, we see further upward price actions. Fundamentally, I don't think Real will sustain this trend of being valued, since the current president is a former prisioner charged for corruption and recently has been seen in Dubai with his 30y younger spouse in a hotel costing 60,000 reais per person by night, using public money to afford the expenses. Taxation is going nuts all over the country again, the previous president had cut them all, and now they are all being reinstalled. Inflation will hit and it's interesting to watch the DXY chart. I am keeping my earning in dollars as long as I follow the continuation here.
Long
by RaposaRacer
Save the banks!!!FED is saving the banks and the pivot is closer than ever. The dollar will have a very bad 2023/24 and once the rates start to decline, everything will have already landed on the moon. The pivot is just the "icing on the cake" as once it happens the markets will already have exploded (e.g; Bitcoin). The Dollar against the Real could possibly enter an accumulation phase at around HKEX:4 which is approximately the price of the previous top (double top) and re-accumulation area for Wave III. A massive bear market is waiting for the DJI, SPX, NQ1, Real, Bitcoin and all markets, but first, the 5th wave... Bring on the BULLS!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn14518531
2
Gold, China, BRICS vs. US Dollar HegemonyIn the contemporary global landscape, compelling arguments exist for a pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case and a pro-US, pro-USD case. This extensive analysis will explore both perspectives, starting with the pro-Gold, pro-China, and pro-BRICS cases. The global commodity supply and demand pricing dynamics reveal a shift in gold businesses from the US to China. Since 2013, gold demand in Asia has led to the migration of vaults, physical and financial trading operations, and even exchanges to the East. This shift signifies an increasing connection between oil, gold, and the Chinese Yuan, as evidenced by the gold-for-oil trade between Russia and China in 2017. Rumors of Saudi Arabia using renminbi from oil sales to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange also indicate a growing connection between these commodities and the Chinese currency. The BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has formed to counter G7 control and assert their interests in the global landscape. The US freezing Russia's foreign currency reserves and cutting them off from the SWIFT system has catalyzed the emergence of Bretton Woods III, a new era of commodity-based neutral reserve currencies. As the US hegemony declines, a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade is emerging. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case argues that despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. China's economy faces growing debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance. In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, the US dollar remains the world standard. The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons, including the US dollar's dominance in global markets, the yuan's limitations as a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar, OPEC members continuing to price their oil in US dollars, and the obstacles faced by BRICS nations in creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature to predict the decline of the US dollar's dominance in international markets. The pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case highlights the increasing role of gold and the emergence of a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case emphasizes the resilience and stability of the US dollar and the challenges faced by alternative reserve currencies, such as the yuan, in replacing the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
by BitcoinMacro
Let the printing begin!!! LULAThe charts never lie. The Law of Large Numbers, by Jacob Bernoulli, defends that we can accurately predict an event when we utilise large numbers. This chart has a precise bull flag formation that has been forming way before the election results. Now we have the Brazilian people's decision, LULA has "won" and the left is back in power. From my point of view, it is a disastrous moment for the country, LULA has numerous cases of very, I mean, extensive systemic corruption in his back. Now he will have to deal with the current worldwide recession. The printing will be massive. This is the confirmation for the bull flag breakout.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn14518531
20
As clear as mudA somewhat confused picture has emerged over the past few days on the USD/BRL chart. I have what looks like a triple top on the monthly and weekly charts, which any chartist will tell you is BEARISH. But…. Over the past couple of days on the daily chart we have what looks like a double bottom which has just completed, which is bullish short-term pattern – so what does this mean and more importantly how do I trade it?? This is always a bit tricky to deal with, but one thing is clear, when a bearish triple top has been formed you would expect the market to start dropping like a stone and if the price action is NOT doing what we would expect it to do that is a major cause for concern. However, it is possible that this is merely a return to point of break out – isn’t it?? Mm, well it could be BUT the market has started to nibble through the neckline at 4.8947. We have yet to see a close above this point but it looks like we might do so today as the moves higher near term look directional. So, what to do? Firstly, I would consider just plain exiting the position or at the very least tightening the stops. It also helps to have some basic rules in place and one of my rules is that the trend prevails. I tend to look at the monthly chart to get a grasp on the long-term trend. First thing to note on this market is that the long-term bull trend remains intact and the second thing to note is that the market appears to have reversed short term just ahead of the 55-week ma at 4.5235. OK, this would suggest that maybe this near-term bounce higher might have some legs. My second rule is that to completely negate the triple top we have to retrace more than 50% and in this case that would be around the 5.1678 mark. So extreme caution is warranted, there is enough to suggest that I would be uncomfortable still hanging on to shorts and given the direction moves over the past couple of days I suspect that we are actually going to see some further moves higher near term. Each time you have what appears to be conflicting signals you need to start watching it more closely, it helps to have some rules in place and to pay attention to the long-term trends. If we are going to see a short-term reversal, we should see dips lower ideally hold over the 20-day ma at 4.7073 now. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
by The_STA
BRL REAL vs USD - Atualização & Previsao - Apr 18 2022 For my English speakers: I am saying that the price broke major support which happened to align with the 38% fib. With broken support on the higher time frames and structure-forming, suggesting resistance on the lower timeframes make the possibility of a continued fall imminent. I am waiting for further confirmation n the daily with proper 4H context for optimal entry. Otherwise, a patient wait to the $4.00 will be a great way to load an optimal entry. NOT ADVICE. USE YOUR OWN RISK MANEGMENT.
Short
by PlutusX
3
The economics of the FIFA World CupIn a few months from now, billions of people will be glued to their TVs for the 2022 FIFA World Cup that is set to take place in Qatar. Every four years, soccer’s global governing body gathers teams from over 30 countries for the world’s biggest sporting event that brings in billions of dollars in revenues and other economic benefits (jobs and tourism) for host nations and for FIFA itself. Economic benefits for host countries For every World Cup, countries put in their bids to host the event as it is widely seen as beneficial for tourism in the long run. Preparing for the event boosts infrastructure and employment in the run up to the World Cup and attracts tourists during and after the event. Countries spend heavily in building stadiums as FIFA has had strict stadium requirements since at least 2001. Stadiums for hosting the opening ceremony should have a capacity of at least 80,000 people, while venues slated for quarter-finals should be able to seat 60,000 attendees. While hosting the World Cup has dubious positive long-term effects on host nations’ tourism and retailing, the impact on employment is undoubtedly transitory as the bulk of job creation is during the construction of stadiums and related infrastructure. Once construction is finished and the World Cup caps off, situations will normalize at host countries and economies will have to wait a couple of years to fully recover the size of their investments in hosting the event. South Africa, which hosted the 2010 World Cup, spent about £3 billion ($4 billion) on venues and infrastructure costs, but only raked in £323 million in revenue due to lower-than-expected tourist arrivals. South Africa and Brazil, which spent about $15 billion on the 2002 World Cup, are among the host nations that were unable to benefit from their investments. The South Africa World Cup is regarded by many as a disaster as it triggered protests by workers and by activists that were against the government’s overspending on the project. Fast forward to 2022, the Qatar World Cup is being met with backlash over how the Gulf state treats its migrant workers. Qatar, albeit small, is one of the world’s richest countries based on its GDP per capita. The oil-exporting country has spent billions on hosting the World Cup that is set to be the first in the Arab world and the second to be entirely set in Asia after the 2002 event in South Korea and Japan. However, Qatar is facing protests following reports that thousands of migrant workers have died since the country started constructing infrastructures for the event about a decade ago. The 2022 World Cup has also been marred with corruption scandals. Qatar and Russia have been accused by the US Department of Justice two years ago of bribing FIFA officials to award hosting rights to their countries for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Impact on the currency of the World Cup champions For champions, economic benefits from winning the World Cup are also short-lived. In a report in 2014, Goldman Sachs said the victor outperforms the global market by 3.5% only in the first month after winning. The momentum fades after three months, the bank’s economists said, stressing that the pattern of outperformance is "fairly consistent over time.” In assessing the World Cup winners between 2002 and 2018, only France registered a slowdown in GDP growth. After winning the 2002 World Cup, Brazil’s GDP jumped 3.1%, faster than the 1.4% expansion in 2001. Italy and Germany also recorded an acceleration in their GDP after their wins in 2006 and 2014, respectively, while Spain’s economy inched up 0.2% in 2010 after contracting 3.8% the previous year. In terms of the victors’ currencies, the Euro — the currency of most European countries —fared better than the US dollar in 2010 when Spain won the World Cup, but lagged against the USD in 2006, 2014 and 2018 when Italy, Germany and France emerged as champions of the World Cup. The favorite to win the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup is Brazil and could lead to a strengthening in the Brazilian real, which has already had an impressive year. The USD started 2022 at approximately 5.6 reals per US dollar and has since strengthened by 20% to 4.7 reals per US dollar. France (the euro) and England (the pound) are considered the next two favorites with football fans. Who is the real winner in World Cup events? If both host nations and champions only receive little to no economic benefits from the World Cup, the clear winner of the international sporting event is undoubtedly the organizer, FIFA, itself. FIFA generates income from the sale of TV, marketing, and licensing rights for football events like the World Cup, while the costs for World Cup events always falls on the host countries. FIFA is expected to rake in $7 billion in revenue from the 2022 World Cup, up from $5.36 billion from the 2018 World Cup and $4.8 billion from the 2014 event.
by BlackBull_Markets