sme ipo make or break position ,be cautious
⸻
🔍 Chart Setup Overview
• Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle (consolidation zone — make-or-break pattern).
• Current Price: ₹109,635 (right at Fibonacci 0.618 level).
• Moving Averages: Clustered, indicating indecision.
• Key Levels (Fibonacci & Triangle) clearly suggest a breakout/breakdown zone.
⸻
📉 Downside Possibility (~60%)
📉 Upside Possibility (~40%)
Based on chart structure and current position near triangle resistance, downside has a higher probability unless a breakout happens soon.
✅ Targets:
1. 1st Downside Target: ₹91,388
• Corresponds to 0.236 Fibonacci level of the entire upmove.
• Drop of ~16.6% → ✔️ Your level is accurate.
2. 2nd Downside Target: ₹85,703
• 0.618 Retracement from the broader previous upmove.
• Drop of ~21.8% → ✔️ Your second target is also valid.
📌 Break below the triangle support would likely trigger both targets.
⸻
📈 Upside Possibility
If it breaks above the triangle resistance, the structure has good momentum potential:
✅ Upside Target:
• ₹127,873 (1.0 Fibonacci extension of previous top)
• Gain of ~16.7% → ✔️ Your upside target is correct.
🚩 But breakout must be confirmed with volume, else it’s a false breakout risk.
⸻
🔺 Conclusion: You are right.
• The risk-reward ratio slightly favors the downside unless there’s a convincing breakout.
• The 60% downside probability estimate is reasonable based on chart pattern, resistance levels, and trend weakening.
