BTC trade ideas
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spring test for shake out or run to resistancethis looked like the shake out (Orange n Red lines) until the sudden smaller time frame trend reversal. (YELLOW line) YFI SUSHI 1INCH ZKS n other ALTs with Utility like AAVE etc all look great n seem to be dragging BTC up... Kinda
see earlier wyckoffian theory post
srry for not posting as much family sudden coma near death stuffs that put life at a stand still but more soon
BTC Marketcap overexuberanceTaking a different perspective - we could consider we have been in a horizontal channel if we exclude the 'MUSK pump and rewind' which began on the 8th Feb 21 until his 'confusing' u-turn on May 21.
According to mining dynamics, we still have between approx 1051-1500 days to go until the next halving which suggests we're just only just past halfway on this cycle.
There could be very interesting times ahead!
BTCWe got a head and shoulders, after an impulsive on the 2nd shoulder, we got a range/consolidation pattern and inside the range we got a descending pattern. So price will be bullish.
IF BTC HOLD THIS LEVEL, WE'RE GOING BACK UP. IF NOT 15K This weekly chart shows we are on a breaking point for more bullish uptrends, ore more bearish if it brakes under. If it brakes under, it will be 15k, if not we will continue to 70k atleast in a short time.
BTC Green or Red?Because the bullish option looks less likely, I favour it. What do you think?
There will likely be a positive correlation between BTC and the DXY by end of June. Which will allow it to be superior to other hedges.
BTC lets get good lets see a run here
LIKE UNIswap 1INCH n maybe some sushi if she chills out.
AAVE looks like she is back on a cliff . (depending on what BTC does i may look to take a position but all in all i think DOT AAVE etc will get shook out for a bit longer _still if these r one of ur top picks might want to consider taking a position a small one n wait n see from there.)
BTC looks like she is thinking about a push while ETH stays flat (eth dominance is sharply falling while BTC dominance is on the rise)
n CONGRATS to all ya all ZKS HODLrs. 2.20 ish n 1.60ish plus seem like lower support/resistance levels of note for now
OCC or OCCAM fi is an ADA_Cardano launch pad n much more I would also look for deep market cap alt projects in the DOT ecosystem like DMST
overall i still think BTC wants to push for low 40ks n alts then after with key ones pumping first like sushi 1inch uniswap etc with profits into eth as btc cools off after 43 ish k A LOT of what ifs but that is the loose plan for now.
REMEMBER to watch ur BTC n ETH pairs compared to USD for any alt u r watching. like if BTC n eth r -.07 n .-.09 but fiat is -.2.6 a push from eth or btc n the fiat pairs will pump it from there if market turns up trend. watch which projects stand up to market downtrend these will pump the hardest when market turns. also try n think logical like what is needed. 1inch is the only way to split up big orders n not get killed on slippage. sushi for cross chain n uniswap is where the liquidity is for AMM etc etc etc
BTC market cap chart ://this is why we do thisLIKE UNIswap 1INCH n maybe some sushi if she chills out.
AAVE looks like she is back on a cliff. (depending on what BTC does i may look to take a position but all in all i think DOT AAVE etc will get shook out for a bit longer _still if these r one of ur top picks might want to consider taking a position a small one n wait n see from there.)
BTC looks like she is thinking about a push while ETH stays flat (eth dominance is sharply falling while BTC dominance is on the rise)
n CONGRATS to all ya all ZKS HODLrs. 2.20 ish n 1.60ish plus seem like lower support/resistance levels of note for now
OCC or OCCAM fi is an ADA_Cardano launch pad n much more I would also look for deep market cap alt projects in the DOT ecosystem like DMST
overall i still think BTC wants to push for low 40ks n alts then after with key ones pumping first like sushi 1inch uniswap etc with profits into eth as btc cools off after 43 ish k A LOT of what ifs but that is the loose plan for now.
REMEMBER to watch ur BTC n ETH pairs compared to USD for any alt u r watching. like if BTC n eth r -.07 n .-.09 but fiat is -.2.6 a push from eth or btc n the fiat pairs will pump it from there if market turns up trend. watch which projects stand up to market downtrend these will pump the hardest when market turns. also try n think logical like what is needed. 1inch is the only way to split up big orders n not get killed on slippage. sushi for cross chain n uniswap is where the liquidity is for AMM etc etc etc
LONG term short - comparing BTC previous cycle in 2017I was just looking at the cycle in 2017 and comparing it to this one.
It look like they both follow the same path, in exact the same day.
This forecast is already playing out and it looks like, we officially entering the bear market for the LONG term.
If you disagree please let me know your insights!
NO FINANCIAL ADVISE
BTC/USDBTC still inside descending channel
It was really boring phase inside this range
What next ? Can Breakout this time or dump again ?
According to chart BTC has this time a higher chance to Breakout because this is the 5th time to test resistance and potential inverse head and shoulders
Important Resistances :
1st : between 38k-39k
2nd : between 41k-42.5k (daily close above this bulls will have the upper hand)
What can we advice : extended patience .. opportunities are endless but your money not
Good luck every one and have nice weekend
REASONING ON BTC DOMINANCE - WHY THE DROP MAY BE OVERThis particular Dominance maeasure, adjusted by stablecoins, show that the down trend may have reverted.
1- we are bouncing on the 50MA
2- the fibo extension target of the last upmove is within the fibo retracement area of the last big downmove. Both are at the 200MA level
But what does this mean? Technically, dominance increases when BTC drops right? So, if the conclusion is correct, we should see some drop in BTC?
Not always. Depends on the moment.
Indeed, BTC can increase also in case of a big run of BTC, leaving all other alts behind. This was very unlikely at 60k as a big run had already been made, but it is much more feasible now at 35k.
Chart have to be read and interpreted, conclusion do not have to be taken blindly. Indeed, paradoxically, the dominance DECREASED today with BTC at -4% currently. It is due by ETH +7% vs BTC performance. ETH, with its 20% market share, has a key role in the Dominance chart.
Also, to be fair, if we just look at the original BTC.D chart (not this adjusted version), the last red candle signals a false breakout of the 50MA AT THE MOMENT. Let's keep this monitored.
BTC Recovering. Another move up soon?Looks like a possible inverse head & shoulders is forming on the BTC index chart. A possible LONG opportunity. I would watch how the right shoulder forms, should come down to the bottom of the left shoulder and also should be approximately similar width. Also wait for confirmation by letting the price touch the trendline up top because it could easily not touch and act against you as a reversal pattern.
BTC ://Notes on Annual HEDGE FUND CRYPTO report/surveyTHESE R NOTES FROM THE (side note/ need to finish an update Wyckoffian theory... looking good besides lower rejection then planned (rejected off 40k not low 40ks))
_3rd ANNUAL GLOBAL CRYPTO HEDGE FUND REPORT 2021 (WE will have further analysis as well as breakdowns and thoughts regarding this report and the current market "n were we goin... all input at these early stages is incredibly valuable for us and the community as a whole, _these r the facts we need to be discussing, not what Elon did this weekend or what rapper or celeb is putting out an NFT collection (4 da record not hating here _main stream adoption brings everyone to the party _ even the, at least for m3 n min3, the annoying stuff_ u all welcome _shoot it _crypto does not discriminate _ $ is $ ... enjoy n please comment)
The estimate of total assets under management (AuM) of crypto hedge funds globally increased
_ US$3.8 billion in 2020 from US$2 billion the previous year.
The percentage of crypto hedge funds with AuM over US$20 million increased in 2020
_from 35% to 46%.
The average AuM for this year increased
_from US$12.8 million to US$42.8 million, _the median AuM increased from US$3.8 m to US$15.0 m
(The median AuM at fund launch is US$1 million, indicating that funds have generally seen an impressive 15X increase in AuM._keep in mind these overall` total amounts are nothing to 100s of billions on the sideline)
The median crypto hedge fund returned
_+128% in 2020 (vs +30% in 2019).
The median best performance strategy in 2020 was
_discretionary long only (+294%)
_followed by discretionary long-short (+129%), multi-strategy (+114%)
_and quant (+72%).
The vast majority of investors in crypto hedge funds are either high-net worth individuals (54%) or family offices (30%).
Amount of “Funds” under management
_median US$0.4 million, _ average is US$1.1 million. (Over half of crypto hedge funds have average ticket sizes of US$0.5 million and below.)
Crypto hedge funds have a median of 23 separate investors. 3 Investor types (this is relatively small and indicates huge oceans of capital waiting to enter this space in some form)
The most common crypto hedge fund strategy
_is quantitative (37% of funds)
_Then discretionary long/short (28%),
_discretionary long-only (20%),
_and multi-strategy (11%).
(the launch of actively managed crypto funds is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin (BTC). The price spike in 2018 appears to have been a catalyst for further crypto funds to launch, while the decrease in 2018 led to fewer funds being launched in 2019. 18% of the survey respondents were launched in 2020).
classified crypto hedge funds according to four broad fund strategies:
• Discretionary Long Only: Funds which are long only and whose investors have a longer investment horizon. These funds tend to invest in early stage token/coin projects, and they also buy and hold more liquid cryptocurrencies. These funds tend to have the longest lock-up periods for investors.
• Discretionary Long/Short: Funds which cover a broad range of strategies including: long/short, relative value, event driven, technical analysis and some strategies which are crypto specific, such as mining. Discretionary funds often have hybrid strategies which can include investing in early stage projects. They tend to have a similar lock-up period to the Discretionary long only group. Strategy insights 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3rd Annual Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report 2021 9
• Quantitative: Funds taking a quantitative approach to the market in either a directional or a market neutral manner. Indicative strategies include: marketmaking, arbitrage and low latency trading. Liquidity is key for these strategies and restricts these funds to only trading more liquid cryptocurrencies. As a result, these funds typically have the shortest lock-up periods for investors.
• Multi-strategy: Funds adopting a combination of the above strategies. For instance, within the limitations set in the prospectus of a particular fund, traders may manage discretionary long/short and quantitative sub-accounts.
Most crypto hedge funds trade Bitcoin
_‘BTC’ (92%)
_Ethereum ‘ETH’ (67%),
_Litecoin ‘LTC’ (34%),
_Chainlink ‘LINK’ (30%),
_Polkadot ‘DOT’ (28%)
_and Aave ‘AAVE’ (27%).
About half of crypto hedge funds trade derivatives
_at (56%), (but short-selling has drastically reduced, from 48% to 28% in 2020).
Crypto hedge funds are also involved in cryptocurrency staking
_(42%),
_lending (33%)
_and borrowing (24%). 4 Fund strategies, activities and trading The percentage of crypto hedge funds using an independent custodian decreased in 2020 from 81% to 76%. The percentage with at least one independent director on their board decreased from 43% to 38% in 2020. The percentage of crypto hedge funds using third party research increased from 38% to 47% in 2020. 88% were using an independent fund administrator in 2020, up from 86% in 2019. 5
Governance Funds tend to be domiciled in the same jurisdictions as traditional hedge funds, with the top three being the
_Cayman Islands (34%),
_the United States (33%)
_and Gibraltar (9%).
The most common location for crypto hedge fund managers is the United States
_(43%), followed by the United Kingdom
_(19%)
_and Hong Kong (11%).
Around a fifth of hedge funds are investing in digital assets
_(21%); the average percentage of their total hedge fund AuM invested in digital assets is 3%. AND More than 85% of those hedge funds intend to deploy more capital into the asset class by the end of 2021. (Around a quarter of hedge fund managers who are not yet investing in digital assets confirmed that they are in late-stage planning to invest or looking to invest _(26%).
the main obstacles to investing,
_regulatory uncertainty is by far the greatest barrier at (82%). (Even those who do invest in digital assets cite it as a major challenge (50%).)
_Client reaction/reputational risk is high at (77%) (as well as digital assets being outside the scope of current investment mandates (68%).)
_Over half of the respondents said that they don’t have enough knowledge of digital assets (64%). 64% of respondents said that if the main barriers were to be removed, they would definitely start/accelerate their involvement/investment or potentially change their approach and become more involved.
2020 year-end crypto hedge fund performance by strategies
Quantitative Long / Short +87% +72%
Discretionary Long / Short +202% +129%
Discretionary Long Only +231% +294%
Multi-strategy +108% +114%
2020 vs 2019 crypto hedge fund median performance comparison
Quantitative Long / Short +72% +17%
Discretionary Long / Short +129% +23%
Discretionary Long Only +294% +10%
Multi-strategy +114% +12%
_It is interesting to note that overall, the crypto hedge funds in this sample had a median performance of 184% last year, vastly higher than 2019 (17%) and, while different strategies have yielded different levels of performance, neither was able to outperform BTC itself, which went up 305% during 2020. A similar picture can be drawn from 2019 data, when our sample had a median performance of 17%, against the BTC rally of 95% in that year./ keep in mind these funds need to answer to hi net worth types who don’t play so carving out short term returns is probably a priority/
_these funds need to answer to investors, if not monthly then quarterly. They need to show, at least short term-profits at or above BTC etc or why would these rich people need these funds.
“This data also suggests that, while discretionary long-only funds were not able to capitalize on the 2019 cryptocurrency market recovery, lagging behind other strategies, they performed exceptionally well in the 2020 bull market. On the other hand, long-short underperformed, which is to be somewhat expected in a bull market, even if in some cases the idea was to mix in shorts as a defense to aggressive farming etc moves.
_we are not able to tell whether they were able to offer higher or lower volatility in relation to cryptocurrencies, which could make crypto hedge funds more attractive investment propositions, despite the lower returns. “
Among the top 15 traded altcoins, some of them are considerably more popular than their market capitalisation would suggest. Litecoin and Chainlink are the second and third most traded altcoins, but their market capitalisations are far lower than Polkadot and Cardano, which fare lower in the trading ranks. Aave, the fifth most traded altcoin by hedge funds, has a market capitalisation of US$5 billion, compared to Cardano’s US$48 billion, which ranks one position below it
Looking at daily trading activity attributed to BTC, 56% of the funds in our survey reported that at least half of their daily cryptocurrency trading volume is BTC, while 15% of funds are pure Bitcoin funds and trade only BTC. We also asked funds to name their top traded altcoins by daily volume (stablecoins were excluded). We found that the top five were: Ethereum (ETH, 67%), Litecoin (LTC, 34%), Chainlink (LINK, 30%), Polkadot (DOT, 28%) and Aave (AAVE, 27%).
¬_Derivatives can either be used as hedging or alpha-enhancing instruments. 2020 was a very busy year in this space. Bitcoin futures open interest saw a substantial rise, indicating increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. As a result, existing derivatives exchanges sought to enrich their offerings, while a number of new players entered this space, leading to a decrease in the concentration of trading volume distribution between exchanges. Towards the end of the year, Bitcoin futures notional trading volumes exploded and trading currently includes billions of US dollars per day, up from hundreds of millions a year ago. The increased number of players and liquidity is rapidly transforming the cryptocurrency derivatives market, enabling widespread institutional adoption, which will, in turn, allow exchanges to offer more sophisticated products, further allowing crypto hedge funds to take advantage of mispricing and arbitrage opportunities.
_Derivatives and leverage Crypto hedge funds and derivatives Prospectus/PPM permits the fund to take short positions
2020 data shows that more than half of the surveyed funds use derivatives, with options being the most commonly used tool _(31%).
However, funds are taking less short positions, with only _28% stating they actively short cryptocurrencies. (This is consistent with the extremely bullish views in this market, especially from Q4 2020 and into Q1 2021, when the survey was conducted.)
¬_In March 2020, Bitcoin crashed to US$4,904, 53% below its intra-year peak of US$10,344 in February. The drop was particularly abrupt on the week of 9th of March, when prices collapsed by 27% in a single day. In light of this event, we asked the crypto hedge funds whether they put new risk management policies in place. Most funds (61%) stated that no changes had been made, with some funds mentioning that they already had risk management systems in place. Among the funds that did implement new policies, the most common was establishing counterparty or exchange due diligence so as to not be exposed to events such as the one described above. Others implemented a formal counterparty risk management policy and changes in management techniques.
_HGM T3Am
400B & 250B realistic pullback target? 400B & 250B realistic pullback/goldenbuy target before further action?
No wonder tether dominance is skyrocking.
#BTC ://Distribution n Accumulation phase theory... ehh lets s33srry all dealing with family emergency stuff so this is messy ruff draft and vague to boot but wanted this out there b4 she either dumps or continues and validates this idea _40 to 42K support / resistance levels_ curios what everyone thinks (cleaned up and fully explained later/but if want to know more look into the _now some what played out but interesting _ WYCKOFFIAN IN DISTRIBUTION N LEAD INTO WHAT NOW COULD BE A ACCUMALATION PHASE)
i didn't really give this accumulation and distribution phase thing much thought until recently . yes some of that i do agree with and not just as a narrative to fight back against fudd
i thought _at least my version of this theory was shot when it looked like we broke into an overall large time frame down trend, again... BUUUuuut we pulled out of it, rite on the bottom trend/channel line.
>KEEP in mind she will need to continue an overall up trend up to at least 40 to 42 k range for this to be valid. there can be pull backs but over all there must be some kind of uptrend until a major and most importantly _know resistance block _ then zig zag over all trend down to the support of 32 ish (hope fully if true this time we stick to more 34k) (ALSO MANY Thought that if beginning this "accumulation phase then we quickly over a 3 maybe 4day period on the one day chart we hit the SELLING CLIMAX SC then the AUTOMATIC RALLY AR the next day leading into the secondary test ST.
anyways this charts a mess but wanted to get this out there so i can get some kind of feed back begin to try and take this theory seriously which i couldnt do if i waited to post this b4 after she runs up further_for this to be valid
_HGM
Again i do want to note it is nice seeing people collectively pushback against the, "they control our market"_ narrative)
BTC up to 40s or back down to 32-34 rangethis is where btc continues overall larger time frame up trend or we re set_again_n alts with it. market still to shook up not to see major blood in alts with btc 32 lets go bulls we in a up trend on 1 hr n kinda still 4hr_1day lets not forget that n keep this 342 bounce mov'n.
if u do beine to take alt positions just save some powder to cost average in if she drags further down
BTC on fence ://sideways uptrend continues???btc looks like she wants to make a stand to continue the overall sideways-uptrend as alts re set. Chart wise esp in shorter time frames UNI OKB look super strong (So does CRO for all ya CRYPTO,com kats) keep in mind btc may dip a bit n hurt them alts a bit more so save something to cost average just in case btc gets dragged down to low 30s _im taking a small alt position now mostly because i dont have time to full time chart watch next 2 days but keep this in mind as u navigate crypto this next few days. _regardless btc should stay in that low to hi 30s box so trade accordingly
On the ZKSwap account went into heavy uni with some okb n sushi
Hodling main account BTC n ETH CEL ADA OCC n need to look to start scalping algo with the new tokenomics that will keep ALGO price down unless something changes. (like algo being picked for a USA etc stable coin)_more to come there later. Forced HODL after dip on SWAP ECO DMST n still holfding staked CRV 1INCH etc _also think any mainstream trustworthy bigger staking_esp layer two staking projects like LIDO even maybe NEXO AAVE whatever wont be going anywhere soon same with any fiat on n off ramp like CRO CHSB n other centralized exchanges that offer debit cards or whatever that helps people unbank n move crypto in n out of fiat.
big paypal news incoming stay HODL strong ya all n buy dem dips but take dem profits _esp in alts
