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Bitcoin soon again 100K$(any breakout there can cause huge pump)As we can see technically we have last and major resistance zone ahead which is 100K$ resistance zone and also red trendline sell pressure is exactly there But we can also expect breakout to the upside and more pump in next weeks and even new possible ATH at least near 120K$. Notice: 100K$ is now major resistance and we may have short-term fall or range near this resistances zone but soon or late the breakout with pump is coming. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
18
Bitcoin Intra-day Long Setup We’re seeing a potential long setup form on the lower time frame. Price action recently faced a clean rejection at the channel resistance and is now making its way down toward a critical support zone. Price is approaching the value area low, which lines up perfectly with the point of control (POC) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement — a strong confluence zone. If this area holds and shows a bullish reaction, we could see a reversal play out, potentially pushing price back toward the range highs and filling the recent liquidity gap. However, if the POC is lost, it increases the chances of a full rotation down toward the value area low of the range, so risk management is essential.
Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
#BTCUSDT: Will Bitcoin Make Any Correction To $90,000?Hey Everyone, Happy Sunday Currently, Bitcoin’s price is consolidating within a shorter timeframe, which has heightened the likelihood of it reaching the $90,000 ‘FVG’ region. However, this could be attributed to the hectic week we experienced, with numerous significant market announcements that have heightened uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. At present, there are two opportunities for Bitcoin: one is riskier, while the other is considerably safer. You can utilise this analysis as a secondary bias. We extend our best wishes and good luck in your trading endeavours. Your unwavering support is greatly appreciated. If you wish to contribute, here are several ways you can assist us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
Long
by Setupsfx_
2
Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary CodeIn-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four Halvings Authors: SanTi Li, Nahida, Legolas Abstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold." 1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation Rate Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply. This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold. Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate Chart As shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply. As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years. In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%. Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025) In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests. At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation. ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin Halvings Since Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge. Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving Cycles The chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases. Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588) 1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events, Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example: ●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior ●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months prior This phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal. 2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving, Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin: ●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year ●2016: 286.29% increase ●2020: 475.64% increase ●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k) Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026. 3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary Reference After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving. 4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After Halving Based on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving: ●2012: 9,237.15% increase ●2016: 2,825.84% increase ●2020: 700.28% increase In the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving. Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency. The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential. Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart III. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value The value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design. 1. Scarcity As previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective. Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold". 2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus Mechanism Bitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack. 3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency Devaluation As shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money. 4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network Design Bitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies: ●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures. ●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability. ●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block. ●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries. These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching. 5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar Transition The world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities. 6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea) Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization. Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation ●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization) ●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles ●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent. 4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value Trends Through the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn: Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital. Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”. Disclaimer on Perspectives: Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability. Risk Warning: This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
by OuChiBoy
Skeptic | BTC Breaks $100K: Is the Uptrend Just Getting Started?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Bitcoin’s finally back above $ 100K , but will this rally keep charging forward? 😊 In this idea, we’re diving into Bitcoin across multiple timeframes , hunting for spot and futures triggers, and wrapping up with a look at BTC dominance. Let’s kick things off with the Weekly Timeframe. 📊 Weekly Timeframe: The Big Picture As I’ve mentioned in previous episodes, the major trend is still a solid uptrend. Why? Per Dow Theory, we’re consistently making higher highs and higher lows. Plus, volume backs this up—rallies come with heavy volume, while corrections see lighter volume. Corrections haven’t even touched the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, which all points to the uptrend staying strong. Honestly, I’m not selling my spot holdings right now—this trend’s too good! Let’s zoom into the Daily Timeframe for spot triggers. Daily Timeframe: Spot Triggers Our previous spot trigger was a buy above $ 88,500 , and since it activated, it’s delivered about 18% profit so far—nice! A quick note: if your capital or risk management is too aggressive, please scale back to stay in profit. If you hit a stop loss, risk no more than 2-3% of your total capital—no more. Now, let’s analyze the chart. Over the past four weeks, we’ve kicked off a solid uptrend, and the corrections feel healthy. Volume’s increasing, showing the trend’s got power. After hitting resistance at $ 105,000 , it looks like we’re gearing up for a correction after a three-wave uptrend. Keep this in mind: $ 107,000 is a major resistance and could be a great spot trigger. If we break $ 107,000 , go long with a stop loss below $88,000, risking max 3%. That’s a solid setup. Let’s move to the 4-Hour Timeframe. 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups Our previous long trigger at $85,850 was a banger—if you watched the video and went long with 10x leverage, you’re up about 200% . Congrats if you caught it! 🙌 Moving forward, I’ll share some new long and short triggers that could be useful. For a long setup, we need to see a reaction at $ 105,000 again, then break that resistance to open a long. But keep your risk low because we’ve got a major resistance at $ 107,000 looming, and the odds of getting stopped out are higher. I’m saying this now so you don’t complain later! In these conditions, don’t obsess over confirmations from indicators like RSI. Movements are sharp, and by the time you wait for a confirmation, the price has already moved. Stick to your main triggers to open positions. For short setups, I’ve got nothing right now. We’re in a strong bullish trend without even a hint of weakness, so I see no reason to go short. Let any sharp pullback pass first, then we can open shorts with confidence if bearish momentum kicks in. Don’t open shorts against the trend just for a 1% chance of a crash. Patience, patience, patience—that’s the key to success in financial markets. The market’s always been here and always will be, so don’t FOMO or trade against your strategy. Let’s talk BTC.D next, but first, if this has been helpful, I’d appreciate a like and a subscribe—it means a lot! 😊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) Let’s get a big-picture view of BTC.D—Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. If this ratio is in an uptrend, liquidity is flowing from altcoins into Bitcoin. If it’s downtrending, it’s moving from Bitcoin to altcoins. Right now, we’re above an uptrend line, so it’s better to go long on BTC since it’s growing faster than most alts. But if the trendline breaks and we drop below 60.27, we can assume an altseason is starting, and that’s when we pivot to buying altcoins. On the daily, BTC.D has been rising nicely, and while some altcoins are starting to wake up, there’s no trend reversal yet. If you check BTC pairs, you’ll notice altcoins are still performing weakly compared to BTC. So, if you’re holding altcoins, it’s better to wait for a clear trend change in BTC.D before buying—that’s the logical move. If you have questions about the analysis or want me to analyze a specific altcoin or symbol, drop it in the comments. BTW, I’m Skeptic! 😄 💬 Let’s Talk! If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
by SkepticWise
1
Bitcoin Btc usdt Daily analysis Time frame daily As you can see byc is moving up and down in the green tunnel My last target (yellow rectangle) is touched and byc couldn't break the upper side of tunnel Now, my target is 120.000 $ ( red rectangle) If this time , btc can break the green uptrend line as resistance line , my next target is 145.000$, 👉👉Important notice 👈👈 Here is not suitable Time for entry the long or short position because btc is in the middle of the tunnel
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
BTC - resistance resisted.. for now!We got our three drive into the supply zone. A bit more grinding price action than suspected, but the short blow-out on news provided decent ltf setups to get into a short or at least take some risk off longs. We just lost H4 trend for the first time since 95k. A few scenarios: - quick reclaim of trend and the little range we were forming up here - deeper pullback into the demand zone around 96-97k. This lines up with the weekly range poc as well. Since we reclaimed that VA, we traded it very cleanly (reclaim to poc, VAL tap, VAH) - keep an eye on the H4 fvg we created at the higher levels of the H4 trend zone. This could provide a decent short setup again. - If 96k doesn't hold, look to wherever H4 ema 100 and 200 are trading at that time. After longer trends, they tend to give a good first reaction at least.
by Tealstreet
Some Analysis For Distraction.Bitcoin is currently testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel. The key resistance level lies around 104,463, and a breakout above this level could signal further bullish continuation toward the channel top (green path). However, if the price fails to break and hold above this resistance, a pullback scenario becomes likely (red path), potentially targeting the midline of the channel or even the lower trendline (WP area). Let’s see how price reacts at this critical level.
by Setmax
BTCUSDTHere is your translated and polished English version with a professional and data-driven tone: Hello traders. Today's first trade comes from BTC. Currently, BTC’s delta value is very close to turning negative (currently at +0.72%). In addition to that, we’re seeing the Activity and Volume Order Flow Profile positioned at a highly critical level. For these reasons, I’ve opened a sell position on BTC. You can find the full trade details below: 🔍 Criteria: ✔️ Timeframe: 15M ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 103,796.33 ✔️ Take Profit: 103,428.49 ✔️ Stop Loss: 103,979.65 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It’s a trade I’m personally taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies: 💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Short
by Nurlan_PT
BTCUSDTHello everyone. Wishing you all a great weekend! Just because the FX market is closed today doesn't mean we should stay away from trading in the crypto markets. That’s why I’ve activated a Buy trade on BTCUSDT and wanted to share it with you as well: 🔍 Criteria: ✔️ Timeframe: 15M ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 103974.98 ✔️ Take Profit: 104442.64 ✔️ Stop Loss: 103662.77 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies: 💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Long
by Nurlan_PT
BTC Battlezone: Gap Fill or Full Reversion?GM. BTC is still KING. Tagged just under 106K, now compressing post-impulse. Price left behind a clean gap: Upper: $100,688 Lower: $97,700 That imbalance is the immediate battleground. If we lose the $100,688 upper bound, we likely fill the gap—but that’s not inherently bearish. If price reclaims stability within that zone and builds—that suggests a tighter HTF range forming, anchored around prior demand. However—if that zone fails outright, and we lose $97,700 with authority, it implies a broader reversion toward the prior consolidation block between: $94,118 – $93,538 Backstopped by $91,631.5 at the base of the last valid demand. That reversion would signal a full retrace of the prior breakout, resetting the trend to neutral and putting buyers on the defensive. BTC.D still soft but undecided. ALTS aren’t leading—they’re watching. Total3 hasn’t reclaimed its breakout line. For now, this is pure structure: Hold inside the gap → bulls control tighter range. Lose the gap → we revisit the base. Price decides. We react. No guessing—just tape and structure.
by Kyle_Booth
BTC - long squeezeI'll be truthful I don't think the expression "long squeeze" is a real thing - but it should be! Daily TF Next level down i think is 98K should the local support @ 102K break. 0.5 fib puts us at 89K / a touch on a macro uptrend / touching a key price point where BTC has oscillated for several months. This move would accomplish a liquidity grab and fill a fair-value-gap. If this happens it could be a fantastic long opportunity. If prices sees continuation to the downside the 618 would be the next natural retracement level but would result in a break below said macro uptrend and thus could create a macro bearish move - 67K would be my guess.
by Strength_in_numbers