BTC/USDT – Update & New Plan (15m, Ichimoku)Previous idea recap:
Bulls proved stronger than expected — we didn’t get the move down to 104,000 as anticipated. Instead, price rallied directly to the 106,300 block, as outlined earlier, and saw only a brief pullback.
Current outlook:
Buyers remain in control here. My new base case is a move towards 106,900 (yellow liquidity block). Ideally, I’d like to see a quick dip to the 105,550 area first, which would set up a strong launch for the next leg higher into the key liquidity zone.
Watching how price reacts on minor pullbacks — still expecting buyers to step in and push us to 106,900 where significant liquidity is stacked.
Key levels:
Minor support: 105,550
Main target: 106,900 (yellow block)
Bulls remain in control above 105,550
Will update if conditions change.
BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas
BTC 26.06.25This could be the range i was waiting for to create the 3rd tap of the accumulation model later. Yesterday we had a mini model 1 at NY open which could have had the intention to be the starting point of the new range. I am now watching for new deviations which then would form a bigger range. There is nothing but liquidity until 104.536$ which would be a perfect target for a range low, but until there are no confirmations this only is an expectation. If the accumulation model is already complete, like i mentioned in my last post, then the target becomes the range high (110.652$).
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you Four Bullish Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Rally
(1) Institutional Capital Rampage: From Whale Holdings to Market Scarcity
- **BlackRock et al. as anchor investors**: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has ballooned to $71.9 billion, holding 660,000 BTC—equivalent to 3.1% of total circulating supply. Such "whale-level" positions not only provide liquidity support but also shatter traditional financial institutions' attitude toward crypto.
- **Accelerating OTC concentration**: OTC platform data shows Bitcoin inventory plunged from 166,500 coins at the start of the year to 137,400 coins, a 17.5% drop. This signals massive coins are shifting from exchanges to institutional custody, creating a "scarcity effect" analogous to apple prices surging due to supply shortages.
(2) Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Hot Money Inflows
- **Policy pivot-driven capital reallocation**: After Fed Governor Bowman signaled a possible July rate cut, CME futures now price in two 2025 rate cuts (up from one). Historical parallels: Bitcoin surged 42% in 6 months post-Fed's first 2019 rate cut (S&P 500 +12%), as low rates enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset".
- **Diminishing opportunity costs**: A potential Fed rate cut would lower real yields (nominal rate - inflation). If 10-year Treasury real yields fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, the opportunity cost of holding gold/Bitcoin declines, pushing funds from bonds into risk assets.
(3) Regulatory Gate Opening: Chinese Brokerage Breaks New Ground
- **Guotai Junan International's milestone**: On June 24, Hong Kong's SFC approved its virtual asset trading services, making it the first Chinese-funded brokerage to gain such. This opens a "compliant channel" for mainland capital—post-announcement, its HK shares surged 101%, while OTC Bitcoin inventory dropped by 3,000 coins, indicating institutions are front-running liquidity inflows.
- **Financial infrastructure upgrade**: The service allows clients to trade BTC via traditional securities accounts, lowering entry barriers. Analogous to Chinese brokerages accessing gold ETFs in 2013, such channels typically trigger explosive incremental flows, expected to attract $1-2 billion from family offices initially.
(4) Technical "Golden Cross" Confirms Long-Term Trend
- **Key moving average resonance**: BTC recently completed a 50-day MA (102,300 USD) cross above 200-day MA (94,700 USD), forming a "golden cross". Backtesting 2019 and 2020 instances, this pattern preceded 58% average 6-month gains, though short-term pullbacks (10-15%) are common (e.g., June 2023 post-cross correction).
- **Strong support forming a safety net**: The 200-day MA now acts as dynamic support—pullbacks to ~95,000 USD would represent a "secondary buying opportunity at institutional cost bases", similar to housing prices finding support when breaking below moving averages.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@106000~107000
SL:105000
TP:108000~109000
Big move for BTC - liquidity sweep + order block retest scenarioPrice could sweep the highs (BSL 110670), then reject around 104700. If that happens, I’ll look for a retest of the OB at 995700 for a possible long.
If we break lower, deeper liquidity sits around 93350, with a strong OB between 92900–91700, that’s my last line for a high-probability reversal.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youBitcoin is currently fluctuating around $105,500, rebounding 4.5% from yesterday's low of $101,000 and successfully breaking through the key psychological threshold of $105,000. Looking at recent trends, the price touched $105,000 in early June before pulling back, and now standing above this level again indicates that bullish forces are attempting further breakthroughs. Notably, this rally has been accompanied by continuous inflows of institutional capital—BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has reached a scale of $71.9 billion, holding 660,000 BTC, making it the largest institutional holder in the market. Such "whale"-level position changes provide solid support for prices.
The market is currently in a phase where an "institutional bull market" intersects with an "emotional market". $105,500 is both a breakthrough point and a divergence point between bulls and bears. Investors need to maintain rationality amid greedy sentiment: in the short term, take advantage of volatility for high-throw and low-suction trading, while in the long term, adhere to the overarching logic of increasing institutional holdings and loose liquidity to seize opportunities amid fluctuations.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@104500~105500
SL:102500
TP:106500~107500
BTC & USDT.D => Bullish Correction Incoming?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Both BTC and USDT.D are sitting around key rejection zones.
💰 BTC is hovering near the $100,000 level — a major previous low and a psychological round number.
📊 Meanwhile, USDT.D is testing the 5% resistance — a supply zone and another critical round number.
As long as $100,000 holds as support on BTC and 5.1% holds as resistance on USDT.D, we could expect a bullish correction across the crypto market.
What do you think? Will these levels hold or break? 🤔
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
UNEXPECTED RISK CRASH FREE FALL AFTER TREND DATA FOR TH NEXT 48HDepending on our study, BTC has a high chance of a new crash below 100K.
The next 48 hours are important for the trend change of BTC, which can allow the trend to free-fall below 100K
BTC is at a top, and it did recovery always recovered on the M volume top., We are now again on the same trend.
BTC can return below 100K as this update shows, with the possibility of targeting the main target 85K - This is the trend zone for new interest.
The reason for this crash is that BTC has not confirmed the cycle, which means the end of the cycle. There is always possibility that the market can act green, but we expect it can show an unexpected breakdown.
A Disciplined Approach to BTC/USDT - Wait for the Right Set Up!Right now, I’m closely monitoring BTC/USDT — and what immediately jumps out is how aggressively this rally has pushed upward 🚀. We’ve seen price climb into a key external range high, taking out liquidity that was likely sitting just above those prior highs 💧.
This kind of move is often where institutional players step in to offload positions, as the liquidity makes it easier to find counterparts for previous accumulation phases 🏦. The way this price action is unfolding, I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction or retracement soon.
With the market this stretched, I’m not looking to get long here — especially not while BTC is trading at such a clear premium 🎯. No edge in chasing the highs.
Instead, I’ll be sitting back, waiting for a healthy pullback and a confirmed bullish structure shift before considering any entries 🔄📊. There’s no need to force trades in these conditions. Patience protects capital 🛡️.
⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — just my current market perspective.
Bitcoin - overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
📍 Context
On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sideways range.
The boundaries are marked with black lines.
Buyer initiative is currently active.
Targets: 108,952; 110,530; 111,980.
📊 Key Actions
The seller attempted twice, on increased volume, to break down below the range, but both times the buyer brought the price back inside. Only seller wicks remained below the lower boundary.
🎯 Trade Idea
🔹 Look for long setups from 105 500 -104,622 or the 103,400–100,718 zone.
There is no context for short trades at the moment.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Can #BTC continue to rise?📊Can #BTC continue to rise?
🧠From a structural perspective, we started to rebound after being very close to the ideal target area of the bearish cup-handle structure, and broke through the downward trend line, which means that the correction phase is over.
➡️So next we need to pay attention to the long trading opportunities after the pullback. At present, this position belongs to the contradictory range. It can continue to rise, but it will be very uncomfortable if we chase the rise. So wait patiently for trading opportunities after the pullback. We can pay attention to the neckline support area (102000-103000).
➡️If there is no pullback, but it continues to rise, then the resistance near 106500 is also worth our attention. This is the support-resistance conversion area that has been tested many times.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
BTCUSDT 30min Breakout Watch | Micro to Macro AlignmentSummary
Bitcoin is showing a classic multi-timeframe confluence setup. On the weekly chart, BTC is holding above key EMAs with bullish continuation patterns. The daily chart shows a breakout from a descending triangle, while 4H and 30-min charts confirm a narrowing price wedge inside a larger compression zone. Momentum is rising, but volume remains subdued. A confirmed breakout above $108K may trigger a measured move toward $114K–$118K, while a breakdown below $105K could lead to deeper retracements.
BTC 30m chart forming a tight triangle with bull flag structure inside.
Price hugging EMAs, RSI ~52, Kalman flipped green, ADX ~23 = prepping for move. Breakout above $107.6K can push fast to $108.3K+. Breakdown below $106.6K weakens structure.
Scaling out
4H: Descending wedge with bullish RSI divergence, ADX rising, support at $104.5K.
1D: Breakout from falling wedge, reclaiming EMAs, but needs volume.
1W: Bullish flag breakout setup; EMAs aligned; RSI > 57, room to run toward $114K if $108K clears.
Watch volume confirmation across timeframes for trend validation.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youBitcoin is fluctuating around $101,000, like driving to a crossroads. Looking down, the average price over the past month is supported at around $100,000. Looking up, $105,000 seems like a hurdle. In the United States, although the possibility of a rate cut in July is low (only 10%), some Fed officials have said they support rate cuts if inflation is under control, which has made the market expect easing in the second half of the year. More importantly, the United States and Hong Kong, China, are issuing "legal IDs" for stablecoins. Large companies like JD.com are applying for licenses, which may make Bitcoin transactions more convenient in the future, equivalent to adding fuel to the market. Large companies are also voting with their actions. For example, MicroStrategy continues to buy Bitcoin, indicating that long-term optimists have not wavered.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@100000~101000
SL:98000
TP:102000~103000
BTCUSDT 1D📈 #BTC Plan for July – Bullish Setup in Play
Bitcoin is forming a bull flag pattern on the daily chart — a classic setup that often leads to strong upward continuation when confirmed.
🔹 Key Indicators
• MACD is building positive momentum
• RSI is holding above 50
• Price is trading above the MA50 and the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong underlying support
📍 Strategy
We're buying here and will consider adding more near the key support zone:
$98,200 – $99,613
📈 Potential breakout targets (on confirmation):
🎯 $112,471
🎯 $116,880
🎯 $121,288
⚠️ Reminder
Always use a tight stop-loss and apply proper risk management.
Breakout confirmation with volume is crucial.
#BTC/UST#BTC
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it.
We are seeing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 106,000.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend.
We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average.
Entry price: 106,600
First target: 106,750
Second target: 107,000
Third target: 107,291