BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas
BTC (Y25.P2.E1) Have 2 scenariosHi Traders,
I won't use words as the charts do the job if you can read charts.
Scenario #1, price moves up from here
Scenario #2, price sweeps the lows for liquidity. A fractal is aligned with it.
I'm looking to enter the trade big at the lows with Avwap, EMAs and liquidity making a strong case.
Here are short term levels based on our approach.
All the best,
Regards,
S.SAri
BTC Forming Bullish Structure — But Wait for the Higher LowAfter months of lower lows and lower highs, Bitcoin has finally broken structure by pushing above the previous lower high, officially forming a new higher high (HH). This is an early sign of a potential trend reversal back into bullish territory.
However, before momentum continues upward, a healthy retracement could occur. The key level to watch is the support zone around $91,200. If price pulls back and forms a higher low (HL) here or slightly lower around the $88,700–$87,500 zone, it would confirm the bullish structure and potentially kickstart the next leg up.
Patience is key here — let the higher low form before looking for long setups.
Market overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, for bitcoin, we got an exit from the sideways trend in the upward direction, but the growth wasn’t significantly confirmed by volumes. The price reached the key resistance zone of $97,500–$98,400 (pushing volumes), from which we received a reaction.
Currently, BTC has adjusted to the buy zone of $95,000–$93,400 (accumulated volumes), the buyer's reaction is present.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
There is a high probability of a test of lower levels this week. This scenario is confirmed by the following factors:
• a steady delta advantage in the direction of sales, which prevents the development of a full-fledged upward movement;
• rather weak trading volumes;
• the wave structure, which has already called into question the current exit from the sideways trend, the price has returned to its framework.
We consider the development of the correction through one of the marked scenarios on the chart.
Sell Zones:
$96,100–$96,600 (local volume area)
Level $98,000
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies)
Buy Zones:
$95,000–$93,400 (accumulated volumes)
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling)
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volumes)
$82,700–$81,400 (volume area)
Level $74,800
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volumes)
IMPORTANT DATES
On macroeconomic developments this week:
• Monday, May 5, 13:45 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the US services sector for April;
• Monday, May 5, 14:00 (UTC) — ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States for April;
• Wednesday, May 7, 18:00 (UTC) — publication of the FOMC statement and the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
• Wednesday, May 7, 18:30 (UTC) — FOMC press conference;
• Thursday, May 8, 11:00 (UTC) - announcement of the interest rate decision The Bank of England in May;
• Thursday, May 8, 12:00 (UTC) — publication of the inflation letter from the Bank of England;
• Thursday, May 8, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis – Will the Rally Continue or Is a CorrectBitcoin is currently trading at $94,500 💰, but statistical studies and mathematical models indicate a potential downward movement 📉 that could push the price toward $93,800, with a strong likelihood of testing the $89,900 zone.
🛡️ Critical Support at $89,000
To maintain the long-term bullish trend, it is crucial that Bitcoin holds above the $89,000 support level. If the price closes below this level for an entire week, it would be a clear negative signal ❌ and could suggest a trend reversal to the downside for a longer period before any renewed upward movement.
✅ When Does the Correction End?
According to statistical studies and mathematical models, the clearest signal that the current correction has ended would be a break above $97,650 followed by three consecutive daily closes above this level 📈.
If this scenario plays out, we could see a strong and rapid surge toward the following targets:
🎯 Target 1: $104,900
🎯 Target 2: $112,900
💡 Investor Advice
If the breakout occurs, it is advisable to take profits 💸 at the mentioned targets and avoid entering new positions until further notice. The market could experience dramatic and swift movements ⚡, so caution is essential.
📢 The analysis will be updated upon reaching these levels to provide a clearer outlook based on price behavior at that time.
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BTC (Post Weekly Close Update)BTC has seen a weekly close above the 93700 support, suggesting bullish strength and likely continuation if this level holds on the weekly. We remain bullish as long as 93700 is maintained; a drop below it would be the first SOW on the HTF, potentially targeting 89K–90K, and possibly 1D OB at 83K–85K. Technically, this remains a LH until the 99500 SH is convincingly reclaimed, ideally on a weekly close.
On the daily, however, we’ve observed the first SOW, closing below the SH at 95K after a rejection from the 1D supply zone, refined into MTF HOBs, where whales initially sold off aggressively. This isn’t alarming, but it warrants attention. With the SPX at resistance, the DXY at support, USDT.D closing the weekly well above the SL at 5.03, and TOTAL at resistance, these are signs of caution, in my view, despite the series of bullish news we’ve seen. That said, with the HTF remaining bullish, we’ll focus on exploiting LTF and MTF moves. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday could certainly bring volatility in the markets, particularly as BVOL24H and BVOL7D, as mentioned in the last update, are at support.👀
To further examine the weakness, note the contrast between the two horizontal ranges (grey boxes). The first range saw a BO followed by impulsive PA, smashing through the 90K key level. In contrast, the second range produced a BO but encountered an HTF supply, resulting in a notably weaker bounce compared to the first BO from the lower range. This could potentially manifest as a deviation if the price closes below the RL, making the 8D HOB at 89K–90K our next target.
On the LTF/ MTF, we’ve also seen a break below the TL, with the other resistance TL being respected, indicating further weakness. Although we haven’t yet seen HTF weakness, I believe a scalp-sized short from the 11H OB, refined into a 2H HOB at 95500 SH, makes sense with a tight invalidation, or from the MTF level around 97500, if provided. If the daily closes above 95500 again, I might consider a scalp long into the 1D supply for a potential DT or even the 100K psychological level.
BITCOIN BULLISH BTC/USDT Analysis – GigaAlgo SMC | May 5, 2025
Price has recently tapped into a premium OB zone with strong volume rejection. Although JASMINN ML flags bearish sentiment, the structure still supports bullish momentum up to 96K unless the 93K support fails. If that breakdown occurs, the next significant support lies around 83K, aligning with previous volume zones and the STATION marker.
The GigaAlgo Oscillator shows a deep red bar print, hinting at increasing bearish pressure short-term, while multi-timeframe sentiment shows a mix of red and green — signaling indecision and potential range-bound action.
BTC/USDT Quick Update – May 5 (BTC/USDT – Multi-Timeframe Breakd4H Chart – Short-Term Bearish
Price has clearly broken down from a rising wedge pattern with volume confirmation. RSI is trending downward (~36) and Parabolic SAR has flipped bearish. Expect potential continuation to the $91K–92K support zone. If momentum accelerates, gap-fill toward 88K remains in play.
1D Chart – Neutral to Weak Bullish
Daily structure still intact, but momentum is fading. Price is hovering near dynamic support (200 EMA / cloud base), but the lack of bullish volume suggests caution. RSI is flat (~60), and ADX shows weakening trend strength. A decisive breakdown could lead to retest of 88K–90K area.
1W Chart – Macro Bullish but at Resistance
Weekly chart remains structurally bullish, with higher highs/lows and price well above Ichimoku cloud. However, BTC is approaching a major resistance zone between 98K–$104K, where rejection has occurred previously. RSI (~58) shows mild cooling; bulls must step in soon for a clean breakout.
Final Take:
Short-term trend is clearly bearish, and mid-term momentum is weakening. However, long-term structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 88K zone. Monitor volume closely at support levels—buyers must defend $91K to avoid deeper retracement.
Trade safe. Plan your entries wisely.
Follow for real-time updates and further ideas.
BITCOIN WEEKLY CHARTBitcoin Break of Supply Roof: Implications for Price Action
Bitcoin’s recent breach of a critical supply roof (resistance zone between $95,000–$98,300) has significant implications for its near-term price trajectory.
this range may represent a "supply roof" where holders accumulated Bitcoin. A breakout suggests these holders are either holding for higher prices or have already distributed, reducing immediate selling pressure.
On-Chain and Fundamental Support
Institutional Demand: Corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy) and ETFs continue accumulating Bitcoin, reducing available supply.
Negative Funding Rates: Despite price gains, futures markets show neutral-to-negative funding rates, indicating room for leveraged longs to enter.
Post-Halving Scarcity: The April 2024 halving has tightened new supply, with only ~19.86 million BTC in circulation (94% of total supply mined).
Conclusion
A decisive breakout above $98,000 would signal a bullish regime shift, targeting $100,000–$109,000 in May/June. However, traders should watch for volume confirmation and macroeconomic cues to validate the move. Failure to hold gains could see Bitcoin retest lower support, but the broader 2025 outlook remains bullish, with institutional adoption and scarcity dynamics underpinning long-term upside.
Critical events this week: US CPI data (May 30) and ETF flow trends will be pivotal for sustaining momentum.
BTCUSDTHello traders! A potential short signal is forming on BTCUSDT. However, it's not ideal to open the sell position right now — we need to wait for the price to reach a specific level. Once it does, we can execute the trade.
So, what are the entry, TP, and SL levels for this setup?
If you’ve just started following me, let’s get started!
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 95828.00
✔️ Take Profit: 95507.18
✔️ Stop Loss: 95988.00
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
BTC Bias bullish imbalance that ultimately failed to provide expected support. Subsequently, the market executed liquidity sweeps, indicative of stop-loss inducement. Following this, price retraced to a discernible Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) level, which is currently exhibiting respect as a potential pivot point.
The failure of the anticipated bullish reaction at the imbalance suggested underlying bearish strength. The ensuing liquidity sweeps provided the necessary momentum for a directional move. The subsequent adherence to the OTE level now presents a technical confluence warranting attention for potential trading opportunities aligned with the observed market flow.
BTC/USDT Quick Update – May 4Bitcoin to $102K? Bullish Momentum Still in Play (4H Chart)
Bitcoin is holding strong within an upward channel, showing clear bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. After breaking out of a long consolidation phase, it’s now finding support around $94.5K and riding along the midline of the ascending trend.
Momentum looks solid, with price above key EMAs and holding structure.
Next major resistance: Sitting at $102,000, which lines up with the top of the channel and a previous supply zone.
Indicators:
RSI is slightly cooling off, suggesting potential short-term consolidation.
ADX still supports a strong trend.
Volume’s dipped a bit, so we may need fresh buying pressure for the next leg up.
If BTC can hold above $94.5K, the bullish structure remains intact. A push to $102K looks likely in the short to mid-term.
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BTCUSDTWishing everyone a great weekend! I opened a BTCUSDT trade this morning and hit TP — price has now returned to the same level (I didn’t share that signal with you). I'm considering taking another trade. Although BTC tends to act “blind” during weekends, I still want to seize the opportunity. For that reason, it's better to enter with a smaller lot size. I may close this trade manually — so turn on notifications to stay updated 🙂
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 96428.33
✔️ Take Profit: 95978.61
✔️ Stop Loss: 96728.22
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
BTC - Liquidity Mapping to Predict MovementAs a part II to my previous post on “Bull Market OR Bearish Retest?” - Here is a 2 day liquidity map on BTC’s chart.
I’m anticipating a sharp drop to 7,000 - why is this number significant?
There is a mass amount of liquidity in the chart down towards 7,000-10,000.
This liquidity is in the form of long stop loss orders.
In layman’s terms - the sell orders required to take price to this extreme low are already within the chart. It is a pre-set consequence to traders decisions in a market dominated by leveraged buys and sells.
If we consider what the “floor” price of BTC is (IE all long term secured holders) - we first have to seperate out the leveraging liquidity used in the futures market.
How much of the BTC market cap is injected liquidity from futures / derivatives? In my view, anything above 7,000.
This liquidity can flow in and out, and the business and function behind it isn’t affected. This liquidity is extremely fluid. It can drop 90,000 and rise 90,000 shortly after without any affect on the fundamental value of Bitcoin.
Sure there is a psychological consequence with perceived value and market stability - but the fact is, leveraged liquidity can enter the market and leave the market with no impact at all on the wallets of market makers.
Food for thought - happy trading.