CounterTrending in B wave for BitcoinMarch saw a massive bitcoin trough with a surge in volume, just like C wave's frantic markets enjoy them. That's 'dong'ed the end of past year's bearish market. So let's try anticipate what this new upmove is all about.
Casting our thoughts one degree up, the two scenarii are:
- One B wave up, subdividing into a corrective a-b-c, as drawn here cause that's our favourite scenario;-)
- Resumption of a much larger degree uptrend, one which would be as large as Bitcoin's inception till June 2019. Also one which could save McAfee's balls haha!
Unfortunately we don't have much to feed on for now. Yet we have had a bullish five-waves' up pattern which ended last week. From its retracement we could risk a guess at future price moves' personality.
So here it is bluntly:
- Shallow retracement (24% or 38%, in the range 5400€-5900€) and we would bet on a zigzag up to 10500€-11500€
- Deep retracement (50% or 62%, in the range 4600€-5000€) and we would favour a larger impulse, with very little to no overlapping in the uptrend, but with so many subdivisions that bitcoin could feel stagnant for a looooong while, and confusing yet still progressing upward, until volume shoots up with the price.
Footnote: volume is thick, it's been so for a month now. At the very least, we're at a trend shift. If bigger, these volumes are early buyers, and investors should follow suit with the price moves that come with these guys.
BTCEUR trade ideas
BTC TARGETS - CONFLUENCE SIGNALS A 6150 LEVELHello guys, happy Easter!
Today I am using the BTC EUR chart for two reasons:
1- it shows less drawings that the USD one so it is easier for you to understand. Also, we will not focus so much on absolute values, just the final target that can easily be converted in USD.
2- it highlights a little difference compared to the USD one (explained at the end).
The long/short ratio is at 0.5, meaning that for every position long there are two opened short. Everybody is expecting a retracement. This is absolutely normal and as I said, it does not mean it is a bad sign. On the contrary, the movement from 6800 to 7300 usd was good for BTC as it reduced the probabilities of a stagnation in the following months.
Said that, a retracement is very needed, as btc was growing too fast. Look at the two blue trendlines, how steep they are: that uptrend was unsustainable and as soon as they were broken, the price went down in a controlled way (always within the fibo retracement area). I think that the lower line of the two channels can be a good alternative and sustainable trendline for btc in the near future. Now we are a little slow in going down cause 6.1-6.2 (in eur, 6.8-6.9 in usd) was a very strong resistance to break in the past two weeks, and so is now as a support. We are also located at the edge of the fibo retracement for the last leg, and in a confluence of lines: the upper boundary of a longer term descending channel and the two halfway lines of the two medium term channels. And last but not least, this is a long weekend so activity is smooth.
Also, even if not visible here, from the 4th of April a H&S is formed, that exactly has its target (I drawed it for you, it is the vertical blue line)at the confluence of the two channels' lower line, and it is also within the fibo retracement area.
target is 5.5k-5.6k in eur, 6.1k-6.2k in usd.
RSI has much roomto go down still, and MACD is turning red.
Which other confirmation do you need? This is a great opportunity to short with distant target and tight SL, RR is big.
A very interesting thing to note is that, contrarily to the USD chart were many were expecting a firther increase, the one in EUR shows that BTC already reached the level before the big crash in March, and used it as a resistance now.
Let me know what you think or if you see something different from the graph!
Is this a good buy-in oppertunity?Hello there beautiful person!
Hope you all are ready for a great Easter holiday, maybe a good time to enjoy life and try to forget a little bit of what happening around us; but still remaining safe.
This post will be a lot shorter than previous.
Changes from previous post:
Added new symbols to make the chart easier to read
Added support line at 6460
Added resistant line at 6826
Overall Market Reaction
So there seem to be quite a jump or pump in the market, a S&P 500 alone had 10% increase from 03. April to 07.April. Other stocks like: Tesla, Google, Amazon, Beyond Meat, Facebook, Vedenta, Apple, Disney and 3M are all up, and a fair amount of up as well. Gold have had an increase as well but slowed down.
It seems that this is the effect of all the printing of money and stimulus into market and companies, and I am afraid it is purely synthetic pump and it will not hold for long term.
In my previous post I mentioned a second wave, and I still believe that is in the horizon. However, we are seeing a temporary pump now up to that second wave, so be cautious.
Momentum of BTC
I have looked at the chart with daily and 4 hourly mainly and switched between: Heikin Ashi, Candles and Renko. I have switched between these three to see if the indicators show the same or a different story.
Most of my indicators are showing that this momentum is good, with exception of DMI that is not yet above the 20 threshold.
The 100 MA daily crossed the 200 MA daily on the upside, which is a good sign.
The triangle I drew a long time ago still holds and it is good to see that the price is moving again within this triangle.
Conclusion
I believe that what we are seeing now is the result of money flow into market and it is synthetic and will not hold in longer term. However, it is a good trading window for those of us that want to do active trading.
For this momentum to continue or hold, it is important that the resistant line 6826 is broken and becomes new support line, or that the 6460 support line holds with trading between those two resistant and support line mentioned.
Personally I am not betting that the price will hold and increase in short term (at least a month), and in best case scenario will re-test the upper triangle resistant line which now lies around 8700.
So I am buying now some BTC and Ether, and will be placing my sell orders at around 8000. My stop-limit will be 6000.
Whatever happens, take deep breaths and dont do anything rash and stick to your strategy.
Stay safe and have a great holiday!
BTCEUR: ThoughtsI just want to share my thoughts.
Bitcoin is still in a quite dangerous position (especially now), but as soon as there is proof, that it's seen as an investment comparable to Gold or any other asset which spreads a thought of value, there can't be any limits for it's price, nor any for Cryptocurrency at all.
This entire spectrum of new technology and the Blockchain itself provides immeasurable value, since it simplifies and quickens processes in all kinds of fields.
I believe in Cryptocurrency and its community, as well as in its potency to overcome any obstruction.
Enjoy the journey.
Bitcoin Bull flag breakout in FebYou can see a Bitcoin Bull Flag formation from February 2020. Here at the start of February there was a consolidation creating the flag pattern. On the 5th of Feb there was a breakout of the pattern.
Chart created using the 4hr chart for BTC/EUR.
CRYPTO CRASH COMING SOONHow many of you know recently there has been a 50% attack on ETC and attackers take back transactions after made. And technically it is very possible for every other crypto.
For example what will happen once bitcoin mining is not profitable anymore? Will those guys just shut down miners and go away ? Once the hashrate drops enough there will big players which can produce blocks faster and reverse a transaction after it is made.
There may be cyrptos which are not vulnerable for those type of attacks but majority of current crypto currencies are not and once few of them ( ETC alread experienced) experience those attacks and people won't rush to buy shitcoins anymore.
Though you can HODL forever maybe one day bitcoin will be one million dollar ( If Dollar crashes enough :D)
Though i am not saying short any coin. Since few player holds most coins. They can pump it easly. Just be aware cyrpto crash is soon.
Second wave hitting soon?Hi there beautiful person!
It has been an interesting week with some incredible money printing and movement in the markets, along with slow movement in BTC.
There is a lot of speculation around now, and I thought I could throw my 2-cent speculation into the bucket as well.
If you have the time and interest, I would appreciate if you read the whole article and pressed a like if you agree.
If not, then have a go at the summary and have a great week ahead of you and be safe!
Short summary:
Market in Post 2008 crash has not been recuperated and we still have a broken system. This combined that covid-19 is hitting/affecting all markets globally, dictate that this is nowhere near the 2008 scenario and incentives and strategies in that period will not be as effective in 2020 and 2021.
List of content:
This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy
Second wave is coming
BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area
BTC price will increase.
First is small changes to the chart:
Moved the resistant and support lines to better positions
Changed the view to weekly to see the overall trend better
Added the triangle from previous post.
This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy
Many people out there are comparing this situation to the one we experienced in 2008, and are creating their strategies accordingly.
That might be a mistake that will cost them dearly and possibly miss out on some great return.
In 2008 it was "mainly" the banks that were hit, cause of bad house mortgage and liquidity. This scenario was rather local and did not hit the world on a global scale, an especially did not span on a lot of other market levels.
Although it did affect globally to some extent, it was more or less due to connection with US market and dollar that was the reason and not the reason itself.
the solution back then in 2008 was to print a lot of money and put them into banks, which worked to most extend; but did not fix it.
Post 2008, aka in 2020, we are still left with a "broken" system and a market that did not fully recuperate from previous crash; whilst the value in stock market is inflated, just waiting for a needle.
This time around, the catalyst/needle covid-19, has hit globally and equally across multiple market areas. This effect is therefore many magnitude greater because of snowball effects.
List of a few: Unemployment is up, number of companies is falling, uncertainty and fear is increasing in people, world wide Currencies will be devalued due to overprinting, consumer market is crashing, gold and copper value is short term lowered and miners cant afford to keep business running, etc
This time period we are in now will have different waves/effects, and value of different assets will react in those different waves.
Second wave is coming
First wave hit China first with total shut down of many important factories and airports, which did it tolls on the financial market and homes in China.
First Wave continued internationally and went towards Europe, and continued to US.
Second wave is now in beginning in China, where we will see the after-effect of first wave. This will further decrease the overall stock market and other assets (than in first wave) will start to gain momentum.
BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area
It is because of this second wave that I believe that BTC will see a further decrease and possibly retest the 3000 Euro. One reason is that investors will need to sell off more to cover their losses in other assets.
BTC price will increase.
The retesting of 3500 EURO will not be a long lived level, because investors will want to buy into more BTC to diversify when the "real" after effect of helicopter money takes into effect.
BTC will probably stay within the triangle for some time, when it starts to increase in price; so watch for that 9000 resistant.
When? Somewhere around end of second wave, and that might be around end of summer or early fall.
Shortly after BTC is increasing it will kick off a new Alt-coin race.
Thank you very much for reading through all of this wall of text. Really hope you found it interesting and useful.
Please, stay safe and have a great week ahead of you.
BTCEUR SELL: A solid bearish continuationIm taking a short-sell position on BTCEUR as I explained in yesterdays educational post (I believe Crypto is due for more losses based on my technical analysis)
What we have here is a wedge (or contraction in my books) leading to the 38.2% of the recent high to low of the swing of price.
Im targetting 123.6% of that move but will be happy to get out even at 100%... since I am a proactive trader I will monitor price action for any signs of an upmove reversal to collect profits and then if the bearish signs remain I will sell again.
BTCEUR - FIBS - VWAP & STOCH RSIBITPANDAPRO:BTCEUR
waiting for STOCH RSI Cross + Weekly Close above 6.2K
T1 = VWAP (DECADE) @ 7130
T2 = FIB 0.5 @ 9854
T3= FIB 1 @ 14831
happy trading