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BTCUSD.P trade ideas

BTC/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown Ahead?Bitcoin shows signs of a potential bearish reversal as price forms a rising wedge beneath a key supply zone. After a recent drop, price is retesting the 106k area (green zone), possibly setting up for continuation to the downside. 🔹 Rising wedge pattern near resistance 🔹 Bearish retest at previous support turned resistance 🔹 Potential drop targets: 102,575 and 102,268 🔹 Break below wedge support could accelerate the fall
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ttrade-With-Logic
BTC Weekly Outlook - paving the wayBTC Weekly Outlook In this week's forecast, we're observing a structured plan grounded in historical monthly Bitcoin data and liquidity dynamics. With MH (Monthly High) and ML (Monthly Low) clearly marked, this scenario outlines a potential roadmap for price action through short-term liquidity movements and higher timeframe rebalancing. Phase 1: Retrace to 4H BPR and Weekend Liquidity (Green Path) The first part of the projection anticipates a minor upward move early in the week, ideally on Monday or Tuesday. This rally would target the 4H Bearish Price Range (BPR) and weekend liquidity, which are areas where price often moves to fill orders left unfilled during lower volume periods. The blue box around the BPR highlights a key short-term zone of interest. Inside it lies the OTE level and the midpoint of the prior range, both typically offering reactions as market participants attempt to position themselves at favorable prices before larger moves unfold. A move into this area would likely be followed by a rejection, setting up for a deeper move lower. Phase 2: Distribution and Breakdown Toward Monthly Statistical Targets (Orange to Green) After reacting to the 4H BPR area, the expectation is for a broader move down through the rest of the week. This would take price below ML (Monthly Low) and into deeper liquidity zones where historical data suggests higher probabilities of price interaction. Two key levels are marked based on monthly performance statistics: TP1 at the first 90 percent confidence level, where price could pause or consolidate. FULL TP deeper down, near a liquidity-rich area that aligns with a Weekly Imbalance (W IMB). This would be a logical place for larger participants to begin building longer-term positions. Phase 3: High Timeframe Discount and Reversal Once price reaches the imbalance, the projection expects a shift in momentum. This region represents a higher timeframe discount, where order books are more likely to begin filling for longer-term positions. From here, the green path resumes, suggesting a reversal and a sustained move upward. If this plays out, BTC would: -Complete a full liquidity sweep below ML -Accumulate at lower prices where there is room to fill larger buy orders -Begin a strong push upward, potentially leading toward new all-time highs This sequence is not only logical from a liquidity perspective but is also statistically supported by how BTC typically behaves around monthly lows and key imbalances. The forecast reflects a market that needs time and space to build positions before initiating the next major leg up.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by tristanmartinusdijkmanderojas1
2
BTC: neutral case analysisBITFINEX:BTCUSD Hello Based on last 3 bull cycles and bear cycles, I did some calculations and this pattern is the result of it. Take it with a pinch of salt, this might not even be close, but just past data gives me this fractal. Here are the peak Bitcoin (BTC) prices for the years you mentioned: 2013: $1,156 2017: $19,497 2021: $67,566 We can now treat these as the values of the quadratic function: a=1156 (for year 2013) b=19497 (for year 2017) c=67566 (for year 2021) However, to apply the formula: Price(x) = a⋅x2 + b⋅x + c Using a quadratic fit to the BTC peak prices in 2013, 2017, and 2021, we get the following estimated prices: 2017: $19,497 (matches actual) 2021: $67,566 (matches actual) 2025: $145,363 Above is the AI calculation, I think it is about right. Happy trading Cheers
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarathonToMoon
Bitcoin - We have to see new highs now!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - is now at the previous highs: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) It could really not be more exciting on Bitcoin at the moment. With the current "all or nothing" potential breakout or double top creation, we will either see a bullrun or a bear market. So far, bulls are still strong, so the chances of a breakout luckily remain higher. Levels to watch: $100.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
15
Bitcoin Targets $105K as Portfolio Share Soars But... The year 2025 is proving to be a watershed moment for Bitcoin. The world's premier cryptocurrency has solidified its position as the bedrock of digital asset portfolios, now accounting for nearly one-third of all holdings, a testament to its growing acceptance as a legitimate macro-asset. Yet, this rising dominance belies a fractured and complex market landscape. While institutional giants and sovereign wealth funds systematically increase their Bitcoin allocations, a counter-current is flowing through the retail sector, where investors are rotating into high-potential altcoins, spurred on by the promise of new investment vehicles. This bifurcation is unfolding against a backdrop of dramatic price swings, conflicting technical forecasts, and a potent mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts, painting a picture of a market at a pivotal crossroads. The headline statistic is striking: as of mid-2025, Bitcoin's share in investor crypto portfolios has climbed to nearly 31%, a significant increase from the previous year. This growth has persisted through months of volatility, including harrowing dips below the psychological $100,000 mark and powerful rallies reclaiming levels above $105,000. The market is being pulled in opposing directions. On one hand, bullish tailwinds are gathering force. A ceasefire in the Middle East has calmed geopolitical jitters, restoring appetite for risk assets. Simultaneously, hints from the U.S. Federal Reserve of a potential July interest rate cut have investors anticipating a surge of liquidity into the market. However, a sense of unease permeates the technical charts. Some analysts warn of a "final crash" still to come, drawing parallels to the market structure of 2021. On-chain analysis has identified the $97,000 to $98,000 range as a critical market pivot, a line in the sand that could determine the next major trend. Meanwhile, other models, like the Elliott Wave count, predict a corrective crash to as low as $94,000 before any new highs can be sustainably achieved. This is the story of Bitcoin in 2025: a maturing asset cementing its institutional role while navigating the turbulent waters of retail speculation, macroeconomic shifts, and its own volatile price cycles. The journey toward becoming a third of all crypto holdings has not been a straight line, but a dramatic tug-of-war that will define the future of the digital asset class. Part 1: The 31% Benchmark - Bitcoin's Ascendant Portfolio Dominance The steady climb of Bitcoin to nearly 31% of investor portfolios is the defining trend of 2025. This figure, a cornerstone of market analysis this year, underscores a profound shift in investor conviction. Through a period marked by six-figure price tags and gut-wrenching volatility, the average investor has not been scared away but has instead deepened their commitment to the original cryptocurrency. This suggests a maturing "buy the dip" mentality, where price corrections are increasingly viewed not as a crisis, but as an opportunity to accumulate a long-term store of value. The primary engine behind this trend is unmistakable: institutional adoption. The floodgates, first opened by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, have become a torrent of institutional capital in 2025. Sovereign wealth funds, major financial institutions, and public companies are now systematically accumulating Bitcoin, treating it as a core component of their treasury and investment strategies. Observations of institutional trading desks indicate this buying pressure from large-scale investors intensified in the first half of the year, even as retail activity showed signs of slowing. This institutional stamp of approval is reflected in the growing number of Bitcoins held in various corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds. This institutional embrace of Bitcoin has been fueled by several factors. First, an increasingly innovation-friendly regulatory environment in the United States has provided the clarity that large, compliance-focused firms require. Second, Bitcoin’s performance has been undeniable. Following recent shifts in the political landscape, Bitcoin has outperformed many major global assets, including stocks, treasuries, and precious metals, solidifying its reputation as a powerful portfolio diversifier. This "flight to quality" within the crypto space has also created a distinct rotation story. As institutions fortify their Bitcoin positions, they appear to be de-risking by moving away from more speculative assets that were darlings of the previous cycle. The most notable casualty of this shift has been Solana. Once a high-flyer, Solana's narrative has "cooled" in 2025. Its portfolio weight among investors has seen a sharp decline since late 2024, as institutional capital pivots toward assets with perceived staying power and clearer narratives. While some analysts see this cooling phase as a potential accumulation opportunity before a new leg up, the dominant trend has been a rotation out of Solana and into the perceived safety of Bitcoin. Part 2: The Great Divide - A Tale of Two Investors The crypto market of 2025 is characterized by a stark divergence in strategy between its two main cohorts: institutional players and retail investors. While their actions collectively push Bitcoin's portfolio share higher, their underlying motivations and asset choices paint a picture of two different worlds. The Institutional Playbook: Slow, Steady, and Strategic For institutions, Bitcoin has become the undisputed king. Their approach is methodical and long-term, driven by a desire for a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset that acts as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. The attributes of scarcity, immutability, and portability are paramount in their decision-making. The advent of regulated products like spot ETFs has been a game-changer, providing a familiar and secure access ramp for deploying significant capital. These large players are not chasing the explosive 100x gains that define crypto lore. Instead, they seek sustained, risk-adjusted returns from an asset that is increasingly uncorrelated with traditional markets during times of stress. Their strategy is one of accumulation, and their exit from more volatile altcoins like Solana is a clear signal of a de-risking mandate. They are building foundational positions in the asset they view as "digital gold," positioning themselves for a future where Bitcoin is a standard component of diversified global portfolios. The Retail Rebellion: Chasing the Next Big Narrative In stark contrast, retail investors appear to be reducing their direct Bitcoin holdings. This is not necessarily a rejection of Bitcoin's value, but rather a strategic reallocation of capital toward what they perceive as the next frontier of high growth. Having witnessed Bitcoin's journey to a multi-trillion-dollar asset, many retail participants are now hunting for "the next Bitcoin"—assets with a lower market capitalization but a powerful, near-term catalyst that could trigger exponential gains. Part 3: The Analyst's Crystal Ball - Price Targets and Technical Tremors Navigating the Bitcoin market in 2025 requires a steady hand and a tolerance for conflicting signals. While macro-environmental factors are painting a bullish picture, technical and on-chain analyses are flashing cautionary signs, creating a tense equilibrium between hope and fear. The Bullish Case: A Confluence of Catalysts The bulls have strong reasons for optimism. A key level on every trader's chart is $105,000. This price is seen as a critical "trend switch"; a decisive break and hold above this zone would signal the end of the recent consolidation and the beginning of a new, powerful phase of the bull market. This optimism is underpinned by powerful external forces. First, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been signaling a potential interest rate cut as early as July. Historically, lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional yielding assets like bonds, pushing investors toward riskier, high-growth assets. This injection of liquidity into the financial system has often preceded significant rallies in Bitcoin, and the market is pricing in this possibility. Second, a significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions has bolstered market confidence. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran caused an immediate and positive reaction in risk assets. Bitcoin surged past $105,000 on the news, demonstrating its sensitivity to global stability. During times of acute conflict, markets often experience a flight to safety, but when tensions ease, that capital flows back into assets like Bitcoin, which thrive on renewed risk appetite. The Bearish Counterpoint: Echoes of the Past and On-Chain Warnings Despite the bullish macro-outlook, clouds remain on the horizon. Some market commentators are warning that the current market is mirroring the patterns of 2021, suggesting that one "final crash" may be necessary to flush out leverage and establish a firm bottom before a sustainable move to new all-time highs. This thesis is supported by specific technical models. Proponents of Elliott Wave Theory, a method of analysis that posits markets move in predictable, repetitive wave patterns, suggest a significant correction is due. Some Elliott Wave counts predict a corrective move down to the $94,000 level, which would represent a substantial pullback from current prices. Such a move would be seen as a healthy, albeit painful, corrective wave before a final, explosive impulse higher. Adding weight to this cautious outlook is deep on-chain analysis. A close look at blockchain data pinpoints the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as the market's next true "pivot." This range represents a massive concentration of supply where a large volume of Bitcoin was previously acquired. This means a large cohort of investors has a cost basis in this zone. As the price approaches this level from below, it will likely meet significant selling pressure from investors looking to break even. A failure to decisively break through this wall of supply could trigger a sharp rejection and validate the bearish corrective scenarios. The Derivatives Dilemma: A Market in Flux Further complicating the picture is the state of the Bitcoin derivatives market. Reports indicate that futures buying activity has declined sharply, suggesting that the speculative fervor that often fuels rallies may be waning. This can be interpreted in two ways. The bearish view is that speculators are losing confidence, and the market lacks the momentum for a continued push higher. However, a more bullish interpretation is that the market is purging excessive leverage, creating a more stable foundation for a rally built on spot buying—the very kind of buying being done by institutions. This faltering derivatives activity, contrasted with strong institutional spot accumulation, could mean the current rally is in "stronger hands" than previous, more speculative-driven cycles. Part 4: The Broader Ecosystem - A Story of Diverging Fates The cross-currents shaping Bitcoin's trajectory are creating ripple effects across the entire crypto ecosystem, with the diverging fortunes of XRP and Solana serving as perfect case studies for the market's 2025 themes. Beyond the Majors: The Speculative Fringe As always, the crypto market maintains a speculative fringe. The emergence of assets like "BTC Bull Tokens" represents the high-leverage, high-risk plays that appear during bull markets. These instruments are designed to offer amplified returns on Bitcoin's price movements and attract the most risk-tolerant traders. Their existence underscores the full spectrum of the market—from sovereign wealth funds methodically buying Bitcoin for their treasuries to degens betting on leveraged tokens, the digital asset ecosystem remains a place of immense diversity and opportunity. Conclusion: Bitcoin's Maturation in a Fractured Market The year 2025 will be remembered as the year Bitcoin truly came of age as an institutional asset, firmly planting its flag and claiming one-third of the crypto investment landscape. This growing dominance, driven by the steady, strategic accumulation of the world's largest financial players, has provided a powerful anchor in a volatile market. Yet, this newfound maturity has not tamed the market's wild spirit. It has instead created a great divide. While institutions build their Bitcoin fortress, retail investors are on the hunt for the next narrative-driven explosion, pouring capital into assets like XRP with the hope of front-running a transformative ETF approval. The market is consequently balanced on a knife's edge. Bullish macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds are pushing for a breakout to new all-time highs beyond the pivotal $105,000 level. At the same time, technical and on-chain analyses warn of a potential final washout, a corrective crash to the mid-$90,000s that may be necessary to reset the market for a sustainable ascent. Bitcoin's path forward will be carved by the resolution of these opposing forces. Can the quiet, persistent demand from institutions absorb the selling pressure from short-term traders and navigate the technical resistance zones? Or will the speculative fervor and corrective patterns that have defined its past cycles pull it down once more before it can climb higher? Whatever the outcome, 2025 has made one thing clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative digital curiosity. It is a global macro asset at the heart of a complex and evolving financial ecosystem, and its journey is far from over.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTC wait for Long Bitcoin continues to struggle with its long-term weekly resistance. In the short term, it’s likely that BTC will consolidate within the $100,000–$112,000 range. Positioning heavily into altcoins during this phase may not be ideal. It’s more prudent to wait for either a confirmed breakout above weekly resistance or a pullback toward the $94,000–$92,000 support zone. For now, the focus remains on short-term trading opportunities within this range. A potential long setup is outlined in the chart. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by evasivesteering
4
Super high risk setup BTC with 60 R:RIt looks like BTC is about to close the weekly candle above 106K. If the bulls are still in control, they need to act very soon. The 100K support level has been successfully retested, and now could be the time for a move upward. 📈 Trade Setup (Educational Purpose Only): Entry: 106,040 Stop Loss: 105,431 Target: 144,000 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:60 This is a super high-risk setup, but the potential reward is significant. Proceed with caution and always do your own research.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CaptainMilo
1
Bitcoin to under 1000 by mid 2026Three drives of bearish divergence, proof of diminishing returns cycle once again, proving that next cycles diminished returns will not even break new highs after the bear marker...if there even is a next cycle... which I doubt will occur since the only appeal of bitcoin is to get rich quick and once it loses that then its over. Anyway, i would call for zero but i doubt that occurs right away, probably get some diehard delusional cultists buying down there stopping it from going right away, maybe bounces around a bit afterward but the destination ultimately is zero.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MikeMM
1
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap📉 Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth. 🧐 Here’s how the cycle works: 1️⃣ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers. 2️⃣ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave." 3️⃣ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders. 4️⃣ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion. 5️⃣ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle. 📊 Historical Evidence: - 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery. - 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH. - 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak. 🔎 If you’re buying now, be ready to: ⛔ Lose access to your money ⛔ Keep covering margins ⛔ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens … They play the same trick, every time. If you don’t recognize it, you’re just another part of the cycle. 🚀🔥 INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
SWISSQUOTE:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
53