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Bitcoin Surges and Gold Falls: Risk Appetite RisesBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst Friday’s session sends a clear message to financial markets: risk appetite is roaring back, and investors are shifting their positions accordingly. While Bitcoin heads for its best week since March—fueled by geopolitical expectations and signs of a softer U.S. trade policy—the gold market, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, is undergoing a mild pullback from its record highs. Bitcoin Tops $93,000 and Eyes Weekly Gains The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), climbed to $93,300, marking a near 10% gain for the week after briefly touching $94,000 on Wednesday. This rebound represents a sharp reversal from the caution seen in recent weeks and largely reflects a shift in tone from Washington. President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move interpreted as an institutional stability signal. He also hinted at potentially lowering tariffs on China, easing market tensions and benefiting higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies. Although Beijing officially denied any trade talks, Bloomberg reports suggest China is considering exempting certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, stoking hopes for a de-escalation. In this context, Bitcoin, which has historically reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and market sentiment, has drawn investor interest as a speculative asset with upside potential amid greater liquidity and less trade friction. BTC/USD Technical Analysis A long-term Bitcoin chart reveals that the Fibonacci retracement has returned near the 61.0% level, currently sitting just below it. The Point of Control (POC) is around $84,568, significantly below today’s price of $93,617. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 55.84, shows no signs of extreme overbought conditions. Should the current resistance level be decisively broken, Bitcoin could surge toward $98,000, reclaiming territory lost in late February. Conversely, if momentum falters, a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—around $90,822, the previous resistance—becomes more likely. Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs On the flip side, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,318.28 per ounce, while June futures slipped 0.6% to $3,328.67. These modest declines come after gold reached a historic peak of $3,500 earlier this week. The primary catalyst for the pullback has been renewed risk-on sentiment, driven by strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet (+2.5%), Amazon (+3.3%), and Nvidia (+3.6%)—all benefiting from the AI boom and boosting confidence in growth assets. Additionally, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which had hit three-year lows, pressured precious metals. Yet gold remains elevated, underpinned by structural factors like persistent inflation, Middle East conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions. A New Balance Between Safe Havens and Speculation This week’s action underscores a temporary shift in investor priorities. With signs of trade détente and no surprises from central banks, capital is moving from defensive assets into higher-return, speculative vehicles such as cryptocurrencies. Other altcoins have also performed well: Polygon is up 11%, Cardano +4.4%, Solana +2.7%, while Ethereum holds steady near $1,770. Although the backdrop remains fragile—trade talks remain uncertain and global risks linger—the market’s narrative has turned cautiously optimistic. This shift positions Bitcoin as a hybrid asset, straddling the line between a digital haven and a high-risk investment. Conclusion The divergent performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the market’s current duality: optimism with reservations. If trade-tension relief takes hold, digital assets could see further gains. Conversely, renewed conflict would likely propel gold back into the spotlight as the premier store of value. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by ActivTrades
Bitcoin (BTC) $95K Target? ETF Inflows & Supply Shock Key Signal Bitcoin Flashes Bullish Signals: Record ETF Flows and Supply Shock Fuel $95K Target Hopes Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, is demonstrating renewed vigor, capturing investor attention with a confluence of bullish indicators. After a period of consolidation and sideways movement following its all-time high earlier this year, recent data suggests underlying strength is building. Significant inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a tightening supply on exchanges, strong relative performance against traditional markets, and key technical levels being tested are painting a picture that has analysts eyeing the next major psychological and technical hurdle: $95,000. ETF Demand Roars Back: A Sign of Renewed Institutional Appetite One of the most significant developments fueling recent optimism is the resurgence of demand for U.S.-based spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Launched in January 2024, these products marked a watershed moment, providing traditional investors with regulated and accessible exposure to Bitcoin. After an initial explosive launch, inflows moderated. However, recent weeks have seen a dramatic turnaround. Reports indicate that these ETFs recently experienced their largest single-day net inflows since their early days in January, signaling a powerful return of institutional and potentially broader retail interest. This influx of capital into regulated vehicles is crucial. It represents sticky, long-term demand rather than just short-term speculative trading. Each dollar flowing into these ETFs effectively removes Bitcoin from the readily available market supply, contributing to a potential supply squeeze. This sustained demand has also propelled Bitcoin's overall market capitalization significantly. While direct comparisons fluctuate daily and depend on methodology (e.g., including gold, different equity classes), Bitcoin's market cap has grown to rival that of major global corporations and even some traditional asset classes. Its ascent up the ranks of the world's largest assets underscores its growing acceptance and integration into the broader financial landscape. While claiming a specific rank like "5th largest" can be debated based on what's included, there's no denying Bitcoin is now a multi-trillion dollar asset class demanding attention. The Supply Squeeze: Coins Vanish from Exchanges Complementing the demand surge is a notable trend on the supply side: Bitcoin reserves held on cryptocurrency exchanges are dwindling rapidly. Data reveals that the amount of BTC available for immediate sale on major trading platforms has plummeted to levels not seen since November 2018. This marks a multi-year low, indicating a strong preference among holders to move their coins into self-custody or long-term storage solutions, rather than keeping them poised for sale. What's driving this exodus from exchanges? Analysts point to several factors, including the aforementioned ETF accumulation, where authorized participants acquire Bitcoin on the open market to meet ETF share creation demand. Furthermore, there's growing anecdotal and on-chain evidence suggesting accumulation by long-term holders ("HODLers") and potentially public companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. While large-scale corporate buying sprees like MicroStrategy's haven't been widely replicated across the board, the cumulative effect of sustained institutional buying (via ETFs) and dedicated HODLers consistently pulling supply off exchanges creates a powerful dynamic. Lower exchange reserves typically correlate with reduced selling pressure. When less Bitcoin is readily available to be sold, even moderate increases in demand can have an outsized impact on price. This scarcity factor is a core tenet of Bitcoin's value proposition, underpinned by its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, and the current trend highlights this dynamic in action. Relative Strength: The "Cleanest Shirt in the Dirty Laundry" Bitcoin's recent performance also stands out when compared to traditional financial markets. Over the past 30 days (as per the provided context), Bitcoin has posted significant gains (e.g., +7.68%), while major equity indices like the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have experienced notable pullbacks (e.g., -6.79% and -8.14%, respectively). This divergence has led some commentators to describe Bitcoin as the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry pile." In times of macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tension, or wavering confidence in traditional financial systems, Bitcoin can attract capital seeking alternatives or hedges. While its correlation with risk assets like tech stocks has often been high, periods of decoupling, like the one observed recently, suggest investors may increasingly view Bitcoin through a different lens – perhaps as a non-sovereign store of value or a bet on future technological disruption, rather than just another high-beta risk asset. This relative outperformance can attract momentum traders and further bolster positive sentiment. Technical Hurdles: The Road to $95K From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's price action is generating significant discussion. One key metric analysts watch is the "realized price," particularly for short-term holders (investors who acquired BTC relatively recently). When the market price surpasses the average acquisition cost of these recent buyers, it can signal a shift in market psychology. Those who bought recently are now in profit, potentially reducing sell pressure and encouraging further buying. Bitcoin recently surpassed this level, leading to speculation about whether this marks the beginning of a sustained rally or potentially sets up a "double top" scenario – a bearish pattern where an asset fails twice to break above a certain resistance level. Analysts are closely watching specific price levels. There appears to be a consensus around a key resistance zone that, if decisively reclaimed and held, could signal that "all bets are off" for the bears, potentially opening the door for a significant upward move. Conversely, failure to break through these levels, or a strong rejection from them, could lead to a pullback, validating the warnings from more cautious analysts. The $95,000 mark looms large as the next major psychological and potential technical resistance area should the current momentum continue and key lower resistance levels be overcome. Reaching this target would likely require a confluence of the factors already discussed: continued strong ETF inflows, further depletion of exchange supply, supportive macroeconomic conditions (or continued relative strength despite macro headwinds), and a decisive break through established technical resistance zones. What Triggers the Breakout? Achieving a breakout towards $95,000 isn't guaranteed and likely requires several catalysts: 1. Sustained ETF Demand: Continued, consistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are paramount to absorb supply and signal ongoing institutional conviction. 2. Supply Shock Intensification: If exchange reserves continue to fall sharply, the scarcity narrative strengthens, potentially triggering FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying. 3. Macroeconomic Shifts: A dovish pivot from central banks, renewed inflation fears driving demand for hard assets, or further instability in traditional markets could push more capital towards Bitcoin. 4. Technical Confirmation: A convincing break and hold above currently watched resistance levels would give technical traders confidence and potentially trigger algorithmic buying. 5. Positive Regulatory Developments: While the ETFs were a major step, further regulatory clarity or positive developments globally could reduce perceived risk. Conclusion: Optimism Tempered with Caution The current Bitcoin landscape presents a compelling bullish case. Resurgent ETF demand, dwindling exchange supply creating a scarcity effect, and strong relative performance against traditional assets paint an optimistic picture. Technical indicators, such as surpassing the realized price of recent buyers, add fuel to the fire, bringing targets like $95,000 into the conversation. However, caution remains warranted. Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and technical resistance levels often prove formidable. The risk of a "double top" or rejection at key levels is real, and regulatory headwinds or negative macroeconomic shifts could quickly alter sentiment. While the confluence of positive factors is undeniable and the path towards $95,000 seems plausible given the current dynamics, investors will be keenly watching whether ETF flows remain strong, supply continues to tighten, and crucial technical levels can be decisively overcome. The interplay between institutional adoption, HODLer conviction, and market technicals will ultimately determine if Bitcoin can conquer its next major milestone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTCUSD Eyes Liquidity Sweep as Bulls Push Into Supply ZonesBTCUSD DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 📊 OVERALL TREND 📈 UPTREND — Momentum has surged, with multiple bullish candles breaking out above prior consolidation. Structure suggests a bullish continuation unless rejected at key resistance. 📉RESISTANCE ZONES 🔴 109,618.40 — PIVOT HIGH | Resistance Level 🔴 107,877.89 — SELL ORDER II 🔴 104,355.29 — SELL ORDER I 📈SUPPORT ZONES 🟢 102,576.04 — EXIT BUY | TP 4 🟢 96,169.15 — BUY ORDER | TP 3 🟢 92,012.50 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot 🟢 86,027.66 — BUY ORDER | TP 1 🟢 79,908.44 — BUY ORDER II 🟢 76,167.19 — BUY ORDER I 🟢 74,406.60 — PIVOT LOW| Support Level 📊OSCILLATOR SIGNALS RSI: 67.98 — Neutral, approaching overbought MACD: 1,629.47 — 📈 Bullish crossover Momentum: 10,006.19 — 📈 Strong upward push Stoch RSI: 100.00 — 🔄 Extremely overbought, caution warranted Williams %R: −5.30 — 🔻 Sell signal (overbought territory) 📈MOVING AVERAGES ALIGNMENT All major EMAs & SMAs (10 through 200) are flashing BUY HMA (9): 92,191.54 — supports current bullish thrust Ichimoku Base: 84,535.45 — below price, further confirms bullish bias 🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES BTCUSD has cleared a long-term pivot range with conviction — first time in over 2 months Price now testing supply zone between 102K and 104K Break above 104K could trigger acceleration toward 107.8K and possibly 109.6K Pullback scenarios would likely retest 96.1K or 92K (TP zones 2 & 3) TRADE OUTLOOK 🔍 📈 Long bias remains strong above 92,012 with targets toward 107.8K and 109.6K 📉 Short-term profit-taking or rejections possible in 102.5K–104.3K zone 👀 Watch for confirmation of breakout or rejection from dynamic resistance at 109.6K 🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION CONSERVATIVE BULLISH PLAY: — Entry: 92,012.50 — TP Targets: 96,169 / 102,576 / 104,355 — SL: Below 86,027 AGGRESSIVE SWING SCALP: — Sell Orders @ 104,355 or 107,877 — TP: 96,169 / 92,012 — SL: Above 109,618 “Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by ProfessorCEWard
#BTC Update (1H Chart)Trade Bias Verification: Long (with caution for short-term bearish momentum) Confidence Score: 6.5 out of 10 (slightly reduced due to bearish MACD crossover and RSI divergence) Hypothesis Refinement: The bullish continuation hypothesis still holds, but the MACD bearish crossover and RSI divergence on the 1-hour chart signal a stronger short-term pullback or consolidation phase. The price is likely to test the demand zone near 92,000 - 92,934 before resuming the uptrend. Traders should wait for signs of momentum recovery (MACD crossover back up, RSI turning up from support) before entering. Key Levels: Entry: Near demand zone 92,000 - 92,934, ideally after MACD bullish crossover and RSI support confirmation. Stop-Loss: Below demand zone and Ichimoku cloud, around 91,000. Take-Profit: Near recent highs (94,000) and daily resistance (95,000 to 100,000). Actionable Insight: Avoid chasing the current pullback; wait for momentum indicators to confirm a reversal near the demand zone. Use a momentum-based entry strategy on the 1-hour timeframe, entering once MACD crosses back above the signal line and RSI shows upward momentum. Set alerts for price approaching the demand zone and for MACD/RSI bullish signals. Maintain stop-loss discipline below the demand zone to protect against deeper corrections. Monitor volume for increasing buying interest on the bounce to confirm strength.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by learningedge
Forget Tariffs: Why Bitcoin Cares More About ETFs Than EarningsBitcoin's Great Decoupling: Why It Ignores Tariffs and Earnings, Fueled by Fundamentals and ETF Billions In the complex tapestry of global finance, assets typically dance to the tune of macroeconomic news, central bank policies, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical tensions like trade tariffs. Stocks rise on strong profits, bonds react to interest rate shifts, and currencies fluctuate with trade balances. Bitcoin, however, increasingly appears to be charting its own course, seemingly indifferent to the traditional market drivers that dictate the movements of legacy assets. This phenomenon, often termed "decoupling," isn't just a statistical anomaly; it's rooted in Bitcoin's fundamental nature and is gaining significant validation through the burgeoning success of US-listed Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The core argument, as highlighted in recent market commentary, is compelling: Bitcoin's value proposition isn't tied to quarterly earnings calls, CEO performance, or the potential impact of import tariffs. It has no central bank adjusting its supply or setting its interest rate. Instead, its perceived value stems from a unique set of characteristics: verifiable digital scarcity capped at 21 million coins, a decentralized network resistant to single points of failure or control, and an emerging role as a neutral, global reserve asset in an increasingly politicized and fragmented world. Fundamentals Over Fleeting News Cycles Traditional assets are intrinsically linked to the health of economies and corporations. A weak earnings report can send a stock tumbling, while fears of a trade war can ripple through entire sectors. Bitcoin exists outside this framework. Its "earnings" are the security and finality provided by its blockchain; its "management" is the distributed network of miners and nodes enforcing consensus rules; its "monetary policy" is embedded in its immutable code. This inherent separation means that while traditional markets might gyrate based on the latest Federal Reserve announcement or geopolitical flare-up, Bitcoin's trajectory is often more influenced by factors specific to its own ecosystem: adoption rates, network upgrades, regulatory clarity (or lack thereof), halving events that reduce new supply issuance, and, crucially, capital flows into vehicles that provide access to it. The narrative suggests Bitcoin is maturing into something akin to a digital version of gold – an asset valued for its scarcity and neutrality, acting as a potential hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and systemic risks within the traditional financial system. In a world grappling with high debt levels, persistent inflation, and geopolitical instability (like the mentioned US trade war volatility), the appeal of a non-sovereign, mathematically scarce asset grows. ETF Inflows: A Roaring Stamp of Approval The most potent evidence supporting this decoupling narrative and Bitcoin's growing acceptance comes from the recent performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Launched earlier in the year, these products represented a watershed moment, providing regulated, accessible exposure for institutional and retail investors alike through traditional brokerage accounts. Recent data underscores their impact. On April 21st, these ETFs collectively witnessed their largest single-day net inflows since the initial launch frenzy in January, pulling in a remarkable $381.3 million. This surge in demand, with notable contributions like the $116.1 million flowing into the RK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), coincided directly with significant positive price action. Bitcoin decisively broke through previous resistance levels, reclaiming the $91,000 mark after a seven-week consolidation period. These inflows are more than just numbers; they represent a tangible shift in capital allocation. They signal growing institutional comfort and strategic positioning in Bitcoin. Unlike speculative futures-driven rallies, inflows into spot ETFs reflect direct demand for the underlying asset, potentially building a more stable foundation for price appreciation. This influx suggests investors aren't just chasing momentum but are making longer-term allocations, viewing Bitcoin as a legitimate component of a diversified portfolio, independent of its correlation (or lack thereof) to other asset classes. Price Action, Leverage, and the Path Ahead The technical picture for Bitcoin has brightened considerably alongside these fundamental drivers. The recent surge saw Bitcoin break key bearish structures, establishing a higher low that many traders see as a potential launchpad for challenging previous all-time highs. The reclaiming of the $91,000 level was a significant psychological victory for bulls, reinforcing the positive sentiment fueled by the ETF flows. Market participants are now eyeing levels like the yearly open around $93,000 as the next major hurdle. However, caution remains warranted. Analysts note that recent price surges have often been accompanied by significant leverage in the derivatives market. While leverage can amplify gains and accelerate upward moves, it also increases volatility and the risk of sharp liquidations if the market turns. The critical question is whether the consistent spot buying, particularly through ETFs, can absorb selling pressure and provide the underlying support needed to sustain these higher price levels. A rally built predominantly on leverage without corresponding spot demand is often viewed as less stable. The comparison to gold's comeback potential amidst trade tensions is intriguing, but Bitcoin still needs to prove its resilience. While it has demonstrated periods of acting as a safe-haven asset, its correlation to risk assets like tech stocks can reappear, especially during broad market liquidity crises. The "decoupling" is not absolute, but rather a dominant trend driven by its unique value proposition gaining traction. Conclusion: A Maturing Asset Forging Its Own Path Bitcoin's recent performance, marked by significant ETF inflows and a price surge seemingly disconnected from traditional market anxieties like tariffs and earnings reports, lends strong support to the decoupling narrative. Its fundamental characteristics – scarcity, decentralization, and neutrality – are increasingly resonating in a complex global environment. The success of spot Bitcoin ETFs provides a regulated gateway for broader adoption and serves as tangible proof of growing institutional and retail demand, validating Bitcoin's role as an emerging reserve asset. While challenges remain, including inherent volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and the need for spot demand to underpin leverage-driven moves, the trend is undeniable. Bitcoin is increasingly trading based on its own unique supply/demand dynamics and its perceived role in the future financial landscape, rather than simply mirroring the movements of traditional markets. It doesn't care about Q3 earnings or new import duties because its value proposition exists on a different plane. As capital continues to flow in via accessible vehicles like ETFs, recognizing its distinct properties, Bitcoin's journey towards becoming a truly independent, globally significant asset class continues, one block at a time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
BTCUSD- Trend line break Out(Target $100000)BTC/USD currently trades above both short-term (34-EMA and 55-EMA) and below long-term (200-EMA) moving averages on the daily chart. Minor support is around $75800; breaking below this would drag the pair down to $72000/$65000. Immediate resistance is around $88000 any breach above confirms intraday bullishness, a jump to $90000/ $95000/$100000. A secondary barrier at $110,000 indicates that closing above this level could lead to targets at $111,292, $115,000, or even $135,000. Investment Strategy: Opportunities for Traders Indicators (4-hour chart). CCI(500- Bullish Directional movement index - Bullish It is good to buy on dips around $85000, with a stop-loss set at $78000 for a TP of $10000/$110000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FxWirePro
Technical Analysis for FX,Indices and many More!(Week 17,21Apr)Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Which pairs or instruments should we keep a look out for? For me I am looking at : EURUSD GBPUSD potential break up EurAud EurNzd could hold, favor EurAud to long USDJPY triangle to break lower EURCAD or NZDCAD to long/ EURGBP (h&s) BTC range play This coming week is packed with interest rate decision, how?What to do? Do check out my recorded video for more insights! Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
ICMARKETS:BTCUSD
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
BTC Price Alert: Rejection from Major Supply Zone! Bitcoin just rejected the $85,554 supply zone for the third time, showing clear resistance on the 1H chart. With low momentum and repeated wicks at the top, a breakdown might be brewing. Key Levels to Watch: Supply Zone: $85,100–$86,000 (heavy resistance) Support Zone: $83,383–$83,000 (demand cluster) Bias: Bearish unless $85,554 is broken cleanly What I’m Watching For: If price closes below the mid-range (~$84,500), expect a quick move toward demand. Break below $83,383 could open the door to $82,000. Bullish invalidation only if we get strong volume above $86K. Let me know in the comments: are you buying the dip or waiting for FWB:83K ? #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #BTCUSD #TechnicalAnalysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FrankFx14