BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTCUSD BEARISHBTCUSD is currently bearish and look like it will continue dropping. the 72,000 area does seem like a feasible target.
This descending wedge on the weekly will resolve in AprilAnd it's a bullish signal usually. If BTC does fall down out of this wedge that will be very bearish indeed. If it breaks up the target will be a new ATH.
Good luck this week!
$BTC Death Cross Forming Inverse H & SAs expected, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rolling over, hopefully to form that right shoulder for the inverse h & s patter to confirm the next leg up.
This dumped is fueled by the impending death cross, which historically marks big reversals, since the cross is already priced in.
CME GAP filledTime to look for longs on bitcoin after filling the CME GAP now we are free to go higher witout a need to comeback i expect a huge push during US Session today.
This might help youLabeled are price ranges.
We never know where can go.
But notable have been marked on map.
Remember, markets are waves and frequencies.
BTCUSD next demand zone. BTC can do this.BTCUSD Forecast and technical analysis H1 Time Frame next move possible. BTC demand zone marks.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rising Wedge BreakdownMarket Structure & Analysis:
Rising Wedge Formation: Price has been moving within a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Bearish Breakdown Expected: BTC is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating a potential breakdown.
Resistance Zone:
$89,649 – Key resistance level preventing further upside.
$88,336 – Local resistance that price failed to sustain above.
Support Levels:
$86,852 - $85,335 – Intermediate support range.
$80,402 – Main target for a bearish move.
$76,725 – Secondary support in case of further decline.
Trading Plan:
Sell Setup:
Wait for confirmation of a breakdown below the wedge.
Enter short if price closes below $86,852 with volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $88,336 to avoid false breakouts.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $84,474 (first support level).
TP2: $80,402 (main target).
TP3: $76,725 (extended bearish target).
Risk Factors:
If BTC finds strong support at $86,852, a bounce could invalidate the bearish setup.
Macro events (ETF approvals, institutional buy-ins, Fed rate decisions) may impact price action.
BITCOIN Wait For Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is trading below
The horizontal resistance
Of 92,000$ and has formed
A bearish wedge pattern so
We are bearish biased and
IF we see a bearish breakout
From the wedge we can
Be expecting a further move down
Sell!
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Bitcoin in Ascending Wedge?Looks like a rising wedge guys - I'm not a charting TA expert but would love to here your thoughts. Many bears keep posting a drop to $70K level.. I guess that drop is written in some prophecy somewhere, and they believe (or hope) it MUST happen, before we go for new ATH. Maybe so... however can anyone explain WHY that must play out like that? A couple of weeks back i was in that camp but after I see the slow and steady Bitcoin recovery, I have changed my mind.
BTC/USD Rising Wedge – Bearish Breakdown Ahead?Introduction: Understanding the Market Structure
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour chart presents a technical setup with a mix of bullish and bearish formations. The analysis focuses on key support and resistance zones, trendlines, and chart patterns to determine the next possible move.
🔍 The key takeaway? BTC has formed a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern, signaling potential downside unless a breakout invalidates the setup.
1. Market Structure & Current Trend Analysis
📌 Market in Curve Formation – The Accumulation Phase
Before the recent rally, Bitcoin was in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs, suggesting a period of price weakness.
However, price found strong support at around $77,600 - $80,000, forming a curved bottom structure—an early signal of an accumulation phase.
This bottoming pattern transitioned into a bullish uptrend, leading to the formation of a rising wedge.
🔹 Key Observations:
✔ Accumulation near $77,600 created a base for buyers.
✔ The gradual recovery curve suggests a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
✔ Bitcoin later formed higher lows, confirming a temporary uptrend.
⚠ Shift in Momentum – The Rising Wedge Appears
The price rallied from the support zone but started forming a Rising Wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
A rising wedge indicates that although buyers are pushing prices up, they are losing momentum.
The narrowing price range suggests that sellers are entering at higher levels, weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Technical Levels to Watch
🔵 Resistance Zone ($92,000 - $94,957)
The shaded area near $92,000 - $94,957 is a major resistance level, where BTC previously failed to sustain a breakout.
This supply zone has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its strength.
The Stop Loss for short positions is placed above $94,957—any breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🟠 Support Zone ($77,600 - $80,000)
The strong demand zone between $77,600 - $80,000 aligns with previous support levels.
If the rising wedge breaks down, this is the first major price target where BTC could find support.
A strong breakdown below $77,600 could lead to further declines toward $75,000 or lower.
3. The Rising Wedge Pattern – Bearish Warning!
🔍 What is a Rising Wedge?
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms during an uptrend when price moves within two converging trendlines.
It indicates that buyers are losing strength, and sellers are preparing to take control.
Once the lower trendline breaks, it confirms bearish momentum, leading to a price drop.
📝 Current BTC/USD Rising Wedge Analysis:
BTC has formed higher highs and higher lows, but the price range is narrowing.
The lower trendline is critical—a breakdown below this level could trigger a sharp decline.
The bearish target aligns with the support zone near $77,600.
4. Trading Plan – Possible Scenarios
📉 Bearish Breakdown Scenario (High Probability)
✅ Entry: Short BTC if the price breaks below the rising wedge (~$86,000 - $85,500).
✅ Stop Loss: Above $94,957 to protect against invalidation.
✅ Take Profit Target: $77,600 - $80,000 (first support level).
✅ Extended Target: If BTC drops below $77,600, watch for $75,000 - $72,000.
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Ideally 1:3 or higher for optimal trade management.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario (Low Probability but Possible!)
If BTC breaks and closes above $94,957, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
A confirmed breakout above resistance could push BTC towards $98,000 - $100,000.
Traders should wait for volume confirmation before entering long positions.
5. Risk Management & Final Thoughts
⚠ Risk Factors to Consider:
If BTC breaks the wedge with low volume, the move might be a false breakdown.
Macroeconomic events, such as interest rate decisions, can influence price behavior.
Watch for bullish divergences in indicators like RSI or MACD before shorting aggressively.
🔎 Conclusion:
The Rising Wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal—a breakdown could send BTC toward $77,600.
Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades.
If BTC breaks above $94,957, a bullish continuation could push it toward $100,000.
🔥 Bearish Bias Until Breakdown Confirmation!
Would you like an indicator-based analysis (e.g., RSI, MACD, or Moving Averages)? 🚀
Bitcoin Intraday Analysis – Triangle Formation Developing?In today’s analysis, we are focusing on Bitcoin’s intraday price action, where a potential triangle formation appears to be taking shape. However, more data is needed to confirm this pattern. From a non-biased perspective, price action is still projecting lower highs, and for a bullish shift to occur, we need to see a transition into higher lows.
Currently, Bitcoin is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which aligns with dynamic support/resistance (SR) resistance. If a rejection is confirmed, it could lead to a liquidity sweep at lower levels, ultimately testing dynamic SR support. This would further validate the triangle formation, providing an equilibrium zone for price to break out of.
Key Takeaways:
• Bitcoin remains in a lower high structure, needing a shift to higher lows for a bullish transition.
• Price action is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, which aligns with dynamic SR resistance.
• A confirmed rejection could lead to lower levels, testing dynamic SR support and reinforcing the triangle formation.
• Volume remains low, and a breakout will need increasing volume to be considered valid.
At this stage, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound in equilibrium unless a breakout occurs in the next few hours. If no breakout materializes, price action will likely continue to trend towards dynamic SR support. Traders should monitor volume levels closely, as an increase in volume will indicate a true breakout direction.
Stablecoin liquidity = Bitcoin bullish thesis --> $109k?Can BTC soon climb to the $109,000 level thanks to stablecoin liquidity? Maybe yes!
An increase in stablecoin market cap often signals more money entering the crypto space, indicating bullish sentiment as investors prepare to deploy capital. This increased liquidity can lead to smoother trading and attract more participants, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price.
The chart clearly illustrates this relationship:
Purple line ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT + CRYPTOCAP:USDC + CRYPTOCAP:DAI + CRYPTOCAP:USDEE market cap) shows steady growth
Bitcoin candle chart ( COINBASE:BTCUSD price) follows with more volatile increases
Blue line at the bottom: BTC and stablecoin correlation coefficient of 0.9 😊
This correlation can serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin price movements. During downturns, investors might sell Bitcoin for stablecoins, but as sentiment shifts, this "dry powder" can quickly flow back, driving Bitcoin's price up.
Adding to that, the long-term correlation coefficient between stablecoin liquidity market cap (USDT+USDC+DAI+USDE) and Bitcoin is 90%. So, yes, there's a strong long term correlation and usually BTC and stablecoin liquidity converge.
According to my views on the stablecoin liquidity, the Bitcoin price should target the $109k level.
Last time I made this analysis, Bitcoin jumped from $58k to my price target of FWB:73K in the span of 2 months.
Let me know your thoughts.
BTC READY TO EXPLODE? POTENTIAL 1H ENTRY!Hi traders! , Analyzing Bitcoin on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential entry :
🔹 Entry: 87,509 USD
🔹 TP: 92,003 USD
🔹 SL: 81,206 USD
BTC is respecting the trendline and maintaining its bullish momentum. If this support holds, we could see a continuation toward 92K. RSI is overbought, but price action remains strong.
⚠️DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
BTC Looking BullishBitcoin is starting to look pretty solid here. We’ve got a clear series of higher lows and higher highs off the bottom — exactly what you want to see for a bullish trend reversal. The 200 MA, which had been acting as resistance, has now flipped to support. That’s a big win for the bulls.
Price has also broken convincingly above the $85,000 level, which adds to the bullish case. This kind of structure — higher highs and higher lows — usually signals a shift in momentum. It’s still possible that this could be a bear flag, but the retrace has been deep enough that it’s looking more like a legitimate trend change.
The next major test is around $91,000. A push through that level would really solidify the bullish case, but for now, the market structure is looking encouraging.
The 50 MA is still overhead, which could act as resistance in the short term — so that’s something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, the RSI has now broken above the 50 level, confirming improved bullish momentum. If price holds here and RSI continues to climb, things could heat up quickly.
Butterfly Inflection Point Likely Decisive for Trend We currently have a pending bullish butterfly in the current general area.
This can be a really good continuation pattern, when we have the basic trend conditions of there being a couple corrective legs, typically being around the same size and the final drop being the fastest (Scary false breakout).
In the successful version of this as a continuation pattern it will extend to the 2.20 of the full butterfly range. Doing the numbers in my head I'd guess that somewhere in the 135K sort of range.
...However, failure of the butterfly is a major warning of a reversal.
A reversal has a few main warnings. Decreasingly subtle.
1 - The breakout tends to fail at some technical level/pattern (happened).
2 - The local uptrend pattern breaks (happened).
3 - A larger two leg corrective pattern fails (testing).
The first couple are fine to miss. The market moves against you a bit but nothing disastrous.
Another benefit of being wrong during this bit is markets will range close to reversal levels for a long time (giving people time to make mistakes) there's some scope to work out you're wrong and correct your position during this time.
Upon the failure of the butterfly, if it comes, there's a notable change in the style of trend.
We call it "Crashing" when it happens to the downside (We call it "Organic growth" when it happens to the upside ... people are funny).
Bitcoin's dome is getting tested once again.Bitcoin's dome is getting tested once again.
Low risk entries are not found here.
Again, more work to be done as price is still:
1) below a declining 36 day moving average.
2) below red Ichimoku Cloud defined resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC): Going For Another Re-Test / Still Needs Drop MoreBitcoin seems to go for the retest of the neckline after we had a good breakdown from it previously.
We are not going to go all in on shorts now but rather accumulate the position and wait for perfect confirmation in the form of a market structure break on smaller timeframes, which would then give us more confidence in downward movement!
Swallow Team
BITCOIN just broke above 4H MA200 for the 1st time in 1.5 month!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1.5 month (since February 04). This is on its own a major bullish signal but fortunately for buyers, it is not the only one.
Just yesterday, the price also broke above the February 21 Lower Highs trend-line, the first medium-term Resistance of the market that basically started the brutal sell-off of late February and breaking above it technically restores the bullish sentiment back to the market and at the same time formed a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross for the first time in more than 2 months (January 18).
Obviously the complete confirmation will come if BTC breaks above its Channel Down but given the fact that 2 Resistance levels already broke and that the bottom looks like a W-shaped recovery pattern, we can already set a Target on the 99500 Resistance, which just so happens to be marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
But what do you think? Is this 4H MA200 break-out the bullish signal the market needed after such a long time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Watching for the same 90K area Part IIMorning folks,
Here is just minor update to our last idea. BTC mostly was flat in recent two sessions, so action is started only today.
So, the plan that we've prepared remains valid. Since an area around 90K is a strong resistance, we think that short entry attempt there is relatively safe, and at least should give us the chance to turn it to breakeven trade.
Now, on 1H chart we have two patterns that point on the same area.
BITCOIN (#BTCUSD): Bullish Signal Again! Next Goal is: 90kBitcoin has formed an ascending triangle pattern on a 4-hour chart.
The neckline has been broken, followed by a positive bullish reaction after a deep retest of the pattern.
This indicates a strong signal for a bullish reversal, with a potential move towards 90,000.
BTCUSD SHORTHi traders, watch as I indulge in the price & structure of BTC.
-Bullish long term
-Bullish to bearish (internal waves)
-95500 reaction area
-4th wave correction
-5th wave impulse
-75000 critical area of LIQ
Kindly drop a like and share your thoughts!
