#Btc Breakdown Begins: Double Top + Iran-Israel Tensions = CrBitcoin has clearly formed a double top pattern and is currently hanging near the critical 100K support. If this level breaks, we may first see a fall to 90K, followed by a deeper decline toward 73.5K. If that too fails to hold, the market could slide drastically to 64K–45K zones. The pattern indicates Bitcoin is exiting the distribution phase, with profit booking at aggressive levels.
The Iran-Israel conflict, intensified by U.S. involvement, has triggered panic and short positions across the market. This is a high-risk environment, and long entries could be dangerous right now. Caution is advised — we are entering a potentially sharp correction phase.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Full bear mode. Bulls still trying to make bears doubt it and we are not moving fast enough but we are also not making higher highs. We are close to my validation level for the bears, which is a daily close below 100k. I do think any print above 104k would invalidate my thesis. Targets for bears today/tomorrow are 98k and if we have enough momentum we see 90k.
We are still seeing bigger tails above daily bars which means bulls are trying but since are printing lower lows for two weeks, they are failing. Bears now need to move strongly below 100k and then we can start the acceleration down.
current market cycle: trading range until follow-through below 100k
key levels: 100k - 111k
bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest.
Invalidation is a daily close below 100k - next support below 100k is 98k and then comes 93k
bear case: Bears need to print below 100k and close below. That’s the whole story. Next targets below are then 98k and 93k, breakout-re-test prices. Until they achieve that, it’s slightly higher probability that we move sideways but this market won’t be able to hold above 100k if big indexes sell-off.
Invalidation is above 107k
short term: Bearish but could wait for confirmation below 100k. I doubt we get above 107k again and continue inside the range
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Daily close below 100k is confirmation. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
Bull Run Over, See you in 3 years Bitcoin Just took our previous resistance, and it's failing to displace or close above it; instead, it's rejecting and closing below it.
This to me signals a move to SSL and even lower prices for Bitcoin; I will be interested in Bitcoin around the year 2028.
Good bye crypto for now; I'm looking to stack up some funds until 2028 to buy cheap bitcoin around sub-40K levels.
BTCUSD Analysis | is 100k the Next Target?🔍 Chart Breakdown:
Price previously formed a range under key resistance at $108,800.
A Triangle Pattern emerged after a sharp rejection from the resistance zone.
The recent breakdown from this pattern signals bearish momentum.
Support Level: $100,513 — Key level to watch for a potential bounce or further breakdown.
📊 Scenarios to Watch:
🔴 Bearish Case (Preferred):
Breakdown continuation below $104,000 could trigger a move toward the $100,500 support.
Clean rejection from triangle breakdown area confirms the bearish structure.
🟢 Bullish Case (Less Likely):
If BTC holds above $104,000 and breaks above the mid-range zone (~$106,500), a retest of $108,800 is possible.
Watch for fakeouts at the top of the range.
💡Trade Ideas:
Short opportunities on breakdown retest or rejection from $106,000–106,500.
Potential long only if $108,800 is broken with strong volume confirmation.
🛑 Risk Management:
Always use stop-loss. Monitor BTC dominance and macro sentiment for confluence.
💬 What do you think? Bearish breakdown or fakeout trap? Let’s discuss below!
BTC Inverse H&S Still on TrackWe have tracked this Inverse head and shoulders since first testing the all times highs. We expected another test of ATH to start the next correction leg down. We are not tracking a trip back to $92,000-$89,000 to set up a major H&S pattern that should initiate our next impulse to $150,000-$180,000 to mark the end of the bull market. Lets see how June 2025 monthly candle closes.
BTC USDT PLAN I favor a short-term pullback unless BTC can reclaim and close above the $111K–112K zone with strong volume.
If price breaks below $106K and confirms it as resistance, it could accelerate a move toward $100K and below.
Caution is warranted for bulls — this looks more like a distribution phase near the highs than a breakout.
Long term parabola setting up on weeklyJust a reminder to zoom out and observe the weekly trend. Even though on a daily basis it may seem we are grinding sideways, if we look at the weekly the trend is getting steeper and steeper, if this holds up we're not far away from starting a huge parabolic move.
BITCOIN Getting Ready For The 1hr Bounce.Alright ladies and gentlemen, bears 1hr tf party almost completed.
Vertical blue line is where it ends and Bulls take over again, so whatever price drops when it reaches that vertical blue line (if not sooner) that will be it and will start bouncing.
Now, if the bounce starts from a point too low (near $100k ) and doesn't breaks above $107k again then brace for a hard landing next week cause bulls are getting weaker and weaker on every drop and if this pattern continues then we will see numbers below $100k by next week.
It is very important for price to end this week candle above $109k .
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, we are heading for a rough end of week.
Best areas to enter for next bounce are below $102500 with liquidation point below $100k with low lev recommended. Use lev wisely.
Know the rules of the game....play it right. Have a nice trading day.
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical BreakdownBitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical Breakdown
This chart examines Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle behaviour, focusing on the repeating market structure observed across the last three cycles: Bull Market → Bear Market → Accumulation/Recovery → Halving → Expansion.
Key Observations:
🔹 Cycle Timing Consistency
Each of the past three cycles has shown a consistent duration between the halving and the final bull market peak—typically between 500–550 days. Based on that timing, the current cycle suggests we are still ~100 days away from a potential macro top.
🔹 Post-Halving Correction is Expected
Corrections shortly after the halving have historically marked mid-cycle retracements, not macro tops. The current pullback is structurally aligned with the 2017 and 2021 expansions, where Bitcoin consolidated before pushing to final highs.
🔹 Altcoin Market Segments Lagging
TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC)
TOTAL3 (Excluding BTC & ETH)
OTHERS (Altcoins excluding top 10 by market cap)
All remain below their prior cycle all-time highs, which historically occurs before the full market cycle concludes. These segments often accelerate after BTC has established dominance, typically in the later stages of the bull market.
🔹 USDT Dominance Suggests More Upside
USDT.D is still trending down, which historically reflects increasing risk appetite and capital rotation into crypto assets. Prior cycle tops have aligned with much lower dominance levels, indicating further downside risk for USDT.D, and potential upside for crypto markets.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term volatility, the technical structure across Bitcoin and broader market indicators suggests the cycle remains in its expansion phase. Timing models, altcoin lag, and dominance signals all point to further upside potential before a full cycle peak is in.
1W:
1M:
Bitcoin Bullish Pennant(D)Bitcoin is forming a bullish pennant on the daily timeframe. A classic continuation pattern following strong upward momentum. A breakout above the resistance trendline could signal the next leg up. Watching closely for volume confirmation and a potential retest before continuation. Bullish bias remains intact as long as support holds.
Cycle Last LegThis present cycle is near its end. Pico top will arrive soon, probably by the end of November. BTC is currently ranging (103-109) forming a new base at 106, which is the current point of control. The start of the next and final up leg should start early July, so we have less than 2 weeks to remain patient.
Stand fast. Keep faith. Remain vigilant.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 2-Hour Candlestick Chart2-hour candlestick chart displays the recent price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD), showing a current price of $103,904.89 with a gain of $595.12 (+0.58%) as of 01:22:41. The chart highlights a volatile period with significant price fluctuations, including a sharp drop followed by a recovery, and includes key price levels such as $106,099.25 and $102,803.95. The chart also features a highlighted support zone in pink and a resistance zone in light blue
Market next target 🔄 Disruption Analysis:
1. Weak Support Confirmation
The chart marks a "Support area," but there is no strong confirmation (e.g., a hammer or engulfing bullish candle with high volume).
Support zones are more reliable with multiple prior bounces; here, it seems newly identified and not yet validated.
2. Bearish Volume Signature
During the recent decline (before the support), the red volume bars are significantly larger, indicating strong selling pressure.
The recovery candles near support have low volume, which may signal lack of conviction from bulls.
3. Lower Highs Formation
Prior to the drop, we see a series of lower highs, hinting at weakening bullish momentum.
This could suggest a potential bearish continuation, especially if price fails to break above the last local high (~106,000).
4. Possible Bearish Retest
Instead of a bullish breakout, the current price might just be retesting the broken support-turned-resistance.
This is a common bull trap scenario where prices bounce slightly before resuming downward.
BTC Consolidates 104000-105000: Bearish Breakdown Looming?BTC Technical Update: Bitcoin has been consolidating within the 104000-105000 range for an extended period, with the overall trend showing a downward bias. With the overall trend tilting bearish, traders should watch for a break below 103500 to confirm the next leg down. 📉
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500
🚀 TP 102500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
My btcusd analysis based on demand & supply , and central areaFirst of all btcusd in down trend , then i follow demand supply rule, from my observation.
Second point look the pressure in the hammers , it tells where the price heading, and for more confirmation wait for hammer failure and retest in the price, then you see the momentum in the price.
Warning: BTC Just Got Rejected HARD — Next Stop $101KBTCUSDT 4H Technical Analysis – Bearish Setup in Motion
The current 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT on Binance paints a clearly bearish picture, driven by strong confluence between the Ichimoku Cloud system, price structure, and descending trend channel. Market sentiment has shifted from indecision to downside control, and unless bulls reclaim critical zones soon, a drop toward $101,900 appears highly likely.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish Confirmation on Multiple Levels
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator in this setup plays a dominant role in forming the bearish bias. First, the price action has broken below the Kumo (cloud) and is currently rejecting it from the underside. This behavior alone signals a shift in sentiment, as the cloud now acts as dynamic resistance.
The Tenkan-sen (conversion line), shown in blue, has crossed below the Kijun-sen (baseline) in red—this is a strong bearish crossover. Notably, this crossover occurred below the cloud, which within Ichimoku principles is considered one of the most powerful bearish signals available. It reflects a synchronized decline in both short-term and medium-term momentum.
Furthermore, the future cloud (Senkou Span A and B projection) is flat and shaded in red, signaling weak bullish momentum ahead and strengthening the case for a downward continuation. Flat Kumo tops also indicate a magnet for price, often pulling it back for a re-test before continuation—precisely what is unfolding here.
The Chikou Span (lagging line), which plots the current price 26 periods back, is well below both the price and the Kumo. This further confirms that market sentiment, momentum, and trend direction are all biased to the downside.
Price Structure and Trend Channel
Overlaying the chart is a clearly defined descending parallel channel, capturing the recent series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has respected this channel on multiple occasions, rebounding near its bounds and reacting to its midline as dynamic support and resistance.
Currently, BTCUSDT is moving lower after retesting the mid-range of this descending channel, which aligns with the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. This overlap creates a powerful resistance confluence between $104,600 and $105,800—exactly where price was rejected in the most recent candle clusters.
The repeated failure to break back into the cloud shows that supply pressure is overwhelming, and bulls are losing grip of any short-term recovery.
Liquidity Zones and Risk-Reward Mapping
A red shaded area marks the resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the cloud and the mid-channel structure. This region, between $104,600 and $105,900, has repeatedly acted as a rejection area and represents where sellers are currently stepping in with confidence.
Meanwhile, the projected target is highlighted through the green shaded rectangle, roughly between $101,900 and $102,200, representing the next strong demand zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
The downward arrow on the chart visually reinforces this bearish idea, indicating a continuation of the current momentum toward those support levels.
Trade Setup Based on Chart
This current structure provides a clean, high-probability trade opportunity for bearish traders looking to capitalize on further downside in BTC:
• Entry Zone: $104,500 – $105,000
• Stop Loss: Above $106,200 (just above cloud resistance and recent rejection wicks)
• Target: $101,900
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.3 (depending on entry)
Final Thoughts
The technical case for shorting BTCUSDT here is robust. The Ichimoku system aligns on all fronts—price below the cloud, bearish Tenkan/Kijun crossover under the Kumo, a red future cloud, and a bearish Chikou Span. On top of that, price action is obeying a descending channel and just rejected from its midpoint.
If this setup plays out as expected, BTC is likely to retest the $101,900 region before bulls attempt to regain control. Scalpers may consider dynamic trailing stops below $104,000, but positional shorts can hold with clear invalidation above the red cloud zone.
Bitcoin (EoY '28) - Potentials <3I just wanted to publish this because I feel there is some deep involvement on the drawings based off the all-time historic trendline.
I would like to see how this unfolds. Usually, I am too grandiose about my predictions, or too short-time-minded/%gains. Today we can see a few things that are appreciative and indicative of continuation on a higher timeframe. We can crawl and crawl forever. You musn't be afraid. Continue to trudge forward. There are no bears here, they are only phantoms in the dark.
BTCUSD 15M CHART PATTERN This chart is a 15-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from TradingView, showing recent price movement and a potential bullish prediction.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend & Reversal Point:
A significant downward move is marked with a red arrow, signaling a potential short-selling opportunity or a bearish trend that recently ended.
The price then forms a rising trendline (in red), suggesting an ascending triangle pattern — a bullish continuation signal.
2. Current Price:
As of the time on the chart (June 21, 2025, 04:56 UTC), the BTC price is approximately $103,441.
3. Breakout Projection:
A green arrow indicates a breakout point above the resistance level, supported by the red trendline.
The chart suggests a projected bullish move with a target near $108,090, illustrated with an upward zigzag path in a shaded box — representing the possible path price might follow post-breakout.
4. Chart Analysis Implication:
If the price holds above the red trendline and breaks above the consolidation range, the projection implies an upward target of around $108,000–$110,000.
Conclusion:
The chart author anticipates a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern, aiming for higher levels in the short term. However, a failure to hold above the rising trendline might invalidate the bullish scenario.
Would you like a technical analysis summary, a trading strategy based on this chart, or help interpreting more details?