Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical BreakdownBitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical Breakdown
This chart examines Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle behaviour, focusing on the repeating market structure observed across the last three cycles: Bull Market → Bear Market → Accumulation/Recovery → Halving → Expansion.
Key Observations:
🔹 Cycle Timing Consistency
Each of the past three cycles has shown a consistent duration between the halving and the final bull market peak—typically between 500–550 days. Based on that timing, the current cycle suggests we are still ~100 days away from a potential macro top.
🔹 Post-Halving Correction is Expected
Corrections shortly after the halving have historically marked mid-cycle retracements, not macro tops. The current pullback is structurally aligned with the 2017 and 2021 expansions, where Bitcoin consolidated before pushing to final highs.
🔹 Altcoin Market Segments Lagging
TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC)
TOTAL3 (Excluding BTC & ETH)
OTHERS (Altcoins excluding top 10 by market cap)
All remain below their prior cycle all-time highs, which historically occurs before the full market cycle concludes. These segments often accelerate after BTC has established dominance, typically in the later stages of the bull market.
🔹 USDT Dominance Suggests More Upside
USDT.D is still trending down, which historically reflects increasing risk appetite and capital rotation into crypto assets. Prior cycle tops have aligned with much lower dominance levels, indicating further downside risk for USDT.D, and potential upside for crypto markets.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term volatility, the technical structure across Bitcoin and broader market indicators suggests the cycle remains in its expansion phase. Timing models, altcoin lag, and dominance signals all point to further upside potential before a full cycle peak is in.
1W:
1M:
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTC Consolidates 104000-105000: Bearish Breakdown Looming?BTC Technical Update: Bitcoin has been consolidating within the 104000-105000 range for an extended period, with the overall trend showing a downward bias. With the overall trend tilting bearish, traders should watch for a break below 103500 to confirm the next leg down. 📉
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500
🚀 TP 102500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
My btcusd analysis based on demand & supply , and central areaFirst of all btcusd in down trend , then i follow demand supply rule, from my observation.
Second point look the pressure in the hammers , it tells where the price heading, and for more confirmation wait for hammer failure and retest in the price, then you see the momentum in the price.
Bitcoin (EoY '28) - Potentials <3I just wanted to publish this because I feel there is some deep involvement on the drawings based off the all-time historic trendline.
I would like to see how this unfolds. Usually, I am too grandiose about my predictions, or too short-time-minded/%gains. Today we can see a few things that are appreciative and indicative of continuation on a higher timeframe. We can crawl and crawl forever. You musn't be afraid. Continue to trudge forward. There are no bears here, they are only phantoms in the dark.
BTCUSD 15M CHART PATTERN This chart is a 15-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from TradingView, showing recent price movement and a potential bullish prediction.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend & Reversal Point:
A significant downward move is marked with a red arrow, signaling a potential short-selling opportunity or a bearish trend that recently ended.
The price then forms a rising trendline (in red), suggesting an ascending triangle pattern — a bullish continuation signal.
2. Current Price:
As of the time on the chart (June 21, 2025, 04:56 UTC), the BTC price is approximately $103,441.
3. Breakout Projection:
A green arrow indicates a breakout point above the resistance level, supported by the red trendline.
The chart suggests a projected bullish move with a target near $108,090, illustrated with an upward zigzag path in a shaded box — representing the possible path price might follow post-breakout.
4. Chart Analysis Implication:
If the price holds above the red trendline and breaks above the consolidation range, the projection implies an upward target of around $108,000–$110,000.
Conclusion:
The chart author anticipates a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern, aiming for higher levels in the short term. However, a failure to hold above the rising trendline might invalidate the bullish scenario.
Would you like a technical analysis summary, a trading strategy based on this chart, or help interpreting more details?
BTC, will hibernate for a few weeks from here to sub 100k.BTC rise has been impressive the last few weeks with market triggering excitement after hitting a series of ATH and finally punching the elusive100k levels, and pushing it further to 110k as a bonus.
But like with any overheated parabolic move, a cool down will need to transpire eventually. And that season is ripe now for the king of coins.
From the diagram we are seeing some curve fitting price action, with horizontal ranging at the upper channel -- indicating a bull saturation scenario.
A corrective phase to 0.5 fib levels maybe expected in the next few weeks. It did the same behavior last time. This hibernation would be healthy in the long run - and it needed to happen.
Spotted at 104k.
Target sub 100k levels / or 0.5 fib at 94k.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
Bitcoin Could Hit as High as $400KWhen comparing our macro cycle to the 2017 cycle, we see the potential for a very parabolic run on Bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin could hit as high as $400K by 2029. This is because Bitcoin tends to follow the stock market, and I anticipate a major blow-off top coming for the stock market. I expect one more big parabolic run on the Dow Jones leading up to 2029, which would fuel Bitcoin’s rise to $400K.
The lowest I see Bitcoin going during this parabolic run is $250K. On the higher end, I could see it hitting $400K or even more. Big things are coming.
As always, stay profitable.
— Dalin Anderson
BITCOIN SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅BITCOIN is set to retest a
Strong support level below at 101,000$
After trading in a local downtrend for some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above at 105,000$
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market next forecast 🔄 Disrupted Analysis: Bullish Counter-Scenario
🧠 Original Bias:
The chart predicts a strong bearish move, with a target around 88,000 USD.
The label "Bullish" seems misleading as it’s placed in a steep downward move.
---
📉 Issues With the Original Analysis:
1. Volume Misinterpretation:
Increasing red volume could indicate capitulation or a temporary panic sell-off, not necessarily the start of a new trend.
A bounce could follow if buyers step in.
2. Support Zone Ignored:
The analysis overlooks any previous support levels in the 100k–98k range, where buyers may be waiting.
3. No Confirmation for Breakdown:
The chart does not show a completed breakdown of a key structure or trendline.
The blue squiggle assumes a breakdown will happen, but no technical confirmation is visible.
---
📈 Disruption Scenario: Bullish Reversal Possible
Rejection from 102k zone could be a liquidity grab, not the start of a downtrend.
BITCOIN BOUNCES FROM 50 MA - AGAINBitcoin continues to treat the 50-day moving average like a sacred line in the sand. Once again, price dipped to test the level and found immediate support – bouncing right off the blue line with a solid daily candle and gaining over 1% in the process. That makes multiple successful defenses of the 50 MA in recent weeks – clearly, traders are watching it closely.
The key takeaway here isn’t just the bounce, but the fact that BTC remains in a tightening range between ~$112,000 resistance and ~$100,700 support. We’re seeing a clear battle between bulls and bears – with bulls still managing to defend higher lows while momentum tries to rebuild. As long as the 50 MA continues to hold, the structure remains bullish – but if it breaks, it could signal a retest of the $100K psychological level or even a deeper pullback toward the mid-$90Ks.
For now, the trend is still your friend. But keep one eye on the moving average – because the moment it fails, this range could resolve sharply. Until then, it’s a patient trader’s market.
BTC Triangle Squeezing Toward $100 K — Sellers Press🎯 TL;DR
A four-week contracting triangle is coiling price just under $105 K.
Measured move ⇒ $100 506
Both W.ARITAS Quantum RSI flash strong selling pressure while QSP shows a weak trend.
On-chain: miners dumped ≈30 000 BTC since late May, yet spot-ETF inflows have stayed positive eight days straight.
Base case: price breaks lower into $100 K-97 K, where I expect a sharp bounce.
🗺️ Chart at a Glance
Element Detail
Pattern Symmetrical / contracting triangle (late-Apr → present)
Immediate pivot $104 800 – reclaimed as resistance (red circle)
Target 1 $100 506 – triangle measured move
Demand block $96 900 – $95 000 – weekly support & June VWAP
Invalidation 6-h close > $106 000
🔧 Technical Internals
Momentum 🟣
Quantum RSI: −23 / −41 and falling → sellers dominate.
QSP: muted blue histogram sub-zero → trend itself is still weak, so expect whipsaws near support.
Structure 🔵
Three successive lower-highs (113 K → 110 K → 109 K) tighten the squeeze.
Price is riding the underside of the triangle, a common “kiss-of-death” before resolution.
🔍 Fundamental / Flow Backdrop
Miners on the offer – Wallet balances down ~30 000 BTC over 20 days (≈ $3.1 B)
Source: IntoTheBlock via CoinDesk, 19 Jun 2025
ETF demand refuses to quit – U.S. spot ETFs pulled $388.3 M on 18 Jun, marking 8 consecutive inflow days
Source: CoinTelegraph, Cryptonomist, 19 Jun 2025
Regulatory clarity incoming – U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan stablecoin bill on 17 Jun; House vote next
Source: Reuters, 17 Jun 2025
Net: structural sellers (miners, profit-takers) vs. structural buyers (ETFs).
Right now, technicals side with the sellers.
📈 Trade Map (3-8 Week Horizon)
106 000 – 104 800 Triangle top & failed breakout zone Bias flips bullish only on sustained reclaim
100 506 Measured-move target + psychological $100 K Primary TP / bounce watch
96 900 – 95 000 Weekly demand, June VWAP Secondary TP if 100 K gives way
110 000 + Pattern invalidation Opens road to 113 K-115 K ATH cluster
🛠️ Execution Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Trigger: 6-hour close < $103 500 confirms breakdown.
Entry Bias: Short retest of 104.8 K-105.5 K.
Targets:
TP1 – $100 500
TP2 – $97 000 (only if momentum stays bearish)
Stop / Invalidation: 6-hour close > $106 000 and Quantum RSI flips back to green.
Expect BTC/USD to drop to 102000 post-Fed rate decisionBTC/USD Update 📈
BTC rebounded from 103500 support, now at ~105500. Short-term correction may test 100000 psychological support ⚠️
I think the Fed's interest rate decision this time may cause BTCUSD to drop directly to 102000 .
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500
🚀 TP 102500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
₿itcoin: Holding steadySince our last update, Bitcoin has traded in a relatively stable range. As expected, there's still a strong case for the crypto leader to climb into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. However, a deeper pullback below the $100,000 mark remains a real possibility before that move unfolds. Regardless of the path it takes, we continue to expect Bitcoin to reach this upper zone, completing green wave B. From there, a corrective wave C—also in green—is likely to follow, driving the price down toward the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. This move would mark the end of the broader orange wave a. For now, we’re watching for a potential b-wave recovery before the final leg lower toward the bottom of blue wave (ii) takes shape. That said, there's still a 30% chance that blue wave (i) isn’t done yet and could extend significantly above $130,891 before any meaningful correction begins.
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Ascending Inverse H&S on the BTC weekly chartThe longer it takes to break above this neckline the higher the breakout target will be. I have arbitrarily placed the measured move line at July 18th 2025. If the breakout were to happen on that day the measured move target is around 208k, which could take quite awhile to reach or if we entered a truly hyperparabolic blow off top we could reach such a target way quicker than when the dotted measured move line reaches it. *not financial advice*