BTC is still consolidating & hovering around 100 KBTC is still consolidating & hovering around 100 K. It is trading in narrow zone of support and resistance waiting for breakout on eitherside.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin's 2024 Halving to 2025 Peak: Will BTC Reach $294K?📌Historical Observations
- 2012 Halving → 2013 Top:
Duration: ~1 year.
Price increase: ~8,600% (from ~$12 to ~$1,150).
- 2016 Halving → 2017 Top:
Duration: ~1.5 years.
Price increase: ~2,900% (from ~$650 to ~$19,500).
- 2020 Halving → 2021 Top:
Duration: ~1.5 years.
Price increase: ~900% (from ~$8,600 to ~$69,000).
- 2024 Halving → Projected 2025 Top:
Halving price: ~$64,000.
📌Identified Patterns
- Time from Halving to Peak: Peaks occur around 1.33 to 1.5 years after the halving.
- Diminishing Returns: Growth rates decrease with each cycle:
2012 to 2016: ~66% reduction in returns.
2016 to 2020: ~69% reduction in returns.
Expected reduction for 2024 cycle: ~60-70%.
📌Projection for the 2024 Cycle
Duration to Peak:
Add 1.33 to 1.5 years to the halving date (April 2024).
Projected top: June to October 2025.
Price Growth:
Assuming diminishing returns, we estimate 300% to 360% price growth from the halving price.
Next Top Price=Halving Price×(1+Growth Rate)
300% growth: $64,000 × 4 = $256,000.
360% growth: $64,000 × 4.6 = $294,400.
📌Final Projection
Next Bitcoin Peak Price: Estimated between $256,000 and $294,400.
Timing: Likely between June and October 2025.
Here’s to a successful and prosperous trading year ahead! 🎉
You’ve got this! Let’s make 2025 your best trading year yet.
~ Rich
Bitcoin - Ultimate profit target in 2025 (sell here!)Bitcoin is in a final stage of its bullish cycle! The major impulse Elliott Wave is almost finished. What you really want to focus on is this long term 2017 -> 2021 trendline. When bitcoin touches this trendline (make sure you setup an alert in tradingview), it's definitely time to sell and run away!
It's not only the trendline that is a strong resistance; it's also the Fibonacci extension (1.618 FIB). While a trendline is a dynamic resistance, moving together with price, fibonacci is a static resistance with a fixed level. Our fibonacci level is exactly at 122,069 USDT. I know there will be moon boys predicting 200k or 300k in 2025, but this is pretty much impossible. The market cap of Bitcoin is already relatively high, as you can see in the picture below.
After you sell your Bitcoin, wait for a significant correction (bear market). I expect this bear market to be in years 2025 - 2026. From the Elliott Wave perspective, wave (4) is always a strong support and liquidity point for whales. Bitcoin's wave (4) is at 49k. So we can find support at around 50k - 65k.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Btc bearish scenario 2025First of all i m still bullish at this range but daily close under 92k may result in a crash to 83-77k area . Sideways price action should resolve next days. Over 98.5k close we re heading 120k area. Happy trading !
$BTC Updated Analysis with Elliott Wave Theory:Elliott Wave Analysis:
The chart shows a Elliott Wave count, maintaining the ascending channel structure. Here's the detailed interpretation:
Wave 1 (W1):
The initial impulsive move upward, establishing the bullish trend.
This wave sets the foundation for the larger five-wave structure.
Wave 2 (W2):
A corrective wave, retracing part of Wave 1.
The retracement respects the Fibonacci levels (not explicitly shown here but likely aligning with 0.5 or 0.618 levels).
Wave 3 (W3):
A strong, extended impulsive wave.
In this chart, Wave 3 is approximately 3 times Wave 1 (as marked), indicating strong bullish momentum.
This wave also breaches mid-channel resistance, confirming strength.
Wave 4 (W4):
A corrective phase following Wave 3’s strong rally.
The correction has formed a clear cup-like consolidation, respecting the channel’s support and suggesting preparation for the next upward move.
Wave 5 (W5):
The projected final wave, anticipated to break above key resistance levels.
Based on the projection, Wave 5 could target the $125,110 level or beyond, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Scenarios to Consider:
Bullish Case:
A breakout above $99,563 confirms the start of Wave 5, targeting $107,166, $108,364, and ultimately $125,110 or higher. Strong volume during the breakout would reinforce confidence in the continuation of the uptrend.
Bearish Case:
A breakdown below $94,364 could lead to further retracement, testing $91,236 or the lower channel boundary near $85,465. This would likely delay the start of Wave 5 but may still respect the long-term channel.
Bitcoin - It Will Reach $100.000!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) will break out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Everything, and I literally mean everything, is bullish on Bitcoin. The previous cycles, timeframes, market structure and price action are all pointing towards the continuation of the bull run which started in 2023. And a breakout above the all time high, is the next trigger.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-2-25 : Inside Pause PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stall a bit after the overnight reversion move.
If you were following my research, you already knew I was expecting the markets to rally a bit over the past 3-5 trading days. But that didn't happen as the low liquidity end of year trading prompted another downside price event.
In my opinion, this was all due to a lack of market liquidity. When there is very low liquidity, the MMs can move price more easily as the number of buyers and sellers drops (creating a wider price spread). It is also the type of market environment where FLASH CRASH types of events can take place.
Now that we are into early 2025, liquidity will deepen (more active traders) and this will result in a possible reversion event (upward) in price leading to the Inauguration event (IMO).
Just like I've been suggesting over the past 2-3+ weeks.
Gold and Silver are recovering nicely. I believe Gold and Silver will move back towards their recent highs over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin is still struggling just below $100k, but I believe the ultimate move for Bitcoin will be a retracement to the downside before finding support near $72k and then starting a bigger rally above $120k.
In 2025, I've made a commitment to do more to help more traders. I'm working on new TIMING tools to assist in developing better analysis for everyone. If this research/work plays out well, I'll try to make these new tools available to everyone.
Remember, trading is all about managing capital, expectations, and risks. If you are still struggling with your trading - follow my research and learn how to time/execute better trades.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTCUSD ANALYSIS ( MUST READ CAPTION )Hello Trader's
Here's my BTCUSD analysis, share your opinion on this analysis in comment section, what do you think about BTCUSD today?
Key Points
Current price 93300
Resistance zone 1 97500
Resistance zone 2 99850
Target area 97500
Support zone 92400
My analysis believes that the price of ( BTCUSD ) will increase as soon as possible,
Follow me for more updates on BTCUSD and don't forget to share my idea with your friends and family
Happy new year to all in advance
My play of BTC until June/JulyI think if we play on historical data that we will see a retracement around 80-90k BTC in January then we can see a major local top around mid March with price target between 118k-154k. Then from March/April we can go under a longer correction or consolidation to around 90k-100k range for couple of months until June/July time period. After that I expect a blow off top on the BTC chart under the historical play and identify the top of BTC around Q4 2025 to be more precise between October to December range with the Cycle Top between 195k-210k.
The Moon of Bulls (when bulls come together!)When will Donald Trump take office ?
January 20, 2025
Time is running out ;)
Appendix:
a- Dow Jones Industrial Average (1965-2001)
b- When bulls come together:
Bitcoin H4 (Wave Analysis)Bitcoin H4 (Wave Analysis)
We are in wave c from corrective wave 4 in downtrend.
Regards,
BTC - Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern - Swing Trade
Here's the details of my potential trade Short on BTC....
Daily Chart:
- Head and Shoulders Pattern
- Break and weak retest of 50 day moving average
4hr Chart:
- Death Cross 50 MA over 200 MA (first time since Sep 4, 2024)
Recent Developments & News
- See my SPX Idea, the S&P has both a Rising Wedge and Head and Shoulders, making the overall market susceptible to a short term bear move which will be a headwind for BTC given its correlation to the market
- USA Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has made a lot of headlines and driven increased excitement about Bitcoin. However, recent comments suggest this will not be a quick decision and is not something that is relevant in the immediate term...
- In terms of the legal issues around holding bitcoin, "that's the kind of thing for Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change at the Fed," Powell said.
- Given the likely ways such a reserve could be created, "we suspect such a plan would face stiff resistance from the Fed," Barclays analysts said
- The European Central Bank’s chief bank supervisor, Claudia Buch, on Tuesday also flagged up risks in the crypto market, including "excessive leverage, transparency (and) conflict of interest", adding she was keeping a close eye on banks' exposure to that type of assets.
- In Europe, a series of central bankers this week dismissed any suggestion of bitcoin becoming a reserve asset.
- Belgium’s central bank governor Pierre Wunsch saw little "appetite for having reserves in bitcoins" in an interview on Wednesday.
- Outside the euro zone, Hungary’s governor-designate Mihaly Varga said on Monday cryptocurrencies were just too volatile.
- "We are following the discussion, especially in the U.S. post-elections, closely," ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday. "But our view has not changed. Cryptos are assets, but they are not currency," the Finnish central bank governor added.
Note:
Trump plans to appoint former PayPal executive David Sacks to the newly-created position of White House AI and Crypto Czar, and pro-crypto consultant Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission. That said, the discussion and possible policy changes are possible, just not immediate.
In addition, Michael Saylor has made a lot of news with recent Bitcoin purchases and the potential for issuing shares at MicroStrategy to fund additional BTC purchases. If the shares issuance is approved it could trigger a wave of bullish activity, however the actions and purchases being taken are in consideration of a long term view for BTC and therefore may have less impact on the short term pattern. Noted in Risks below.
Target:
- Head 108k
- Neckline 92k
- Target Move: 16k
- Target Price: $76k-$80k (13-15%)
- Stop: A break above GETTEX:92K
- The Head and Shoulders Pattern has taken ~41 days to form
- The expected timeframe is 1/3 the days to formation so ~13-15 days to target
Risks:
- Bitcoin is currently in a long term cup and handle pattern with a target of $123k, therefore this suggested price action is considered short term and to have risks of the pattern failing
- Bitcoin has made a very strong move over the past 4 months, therefore it easily can continue it's upwards momentum
- Approval of MSTR share issuance could trigger a wave of bullishness in Bitcoin, breaking the pattern
- Trump Inauguration Jan 20th could spark a wave of bullishness as anticipation for new policy takes hold
Overall:
Bitcoin is currently in a long term, very bullish cup and handle pattern with a target of $123k. Therefore, I'm not in any rush to take a short position in BTC given it's very bullish trends and volatility. However, the head and shoulders pattern formed with resistance at the long term upward trendline paired with short term weakness in the broader market makes it a strong case for a short term downward movement. The risk/reward ratio makes it a viable trading opportunity. See below the details of my trade consideration...
Currently no position, however, preparing for position if....
- BTC breaks below the neckline 92,000
- Retest and fail of the neckline at 92,000
- Broader market decline, particularly S&P Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown
Planned position in IBIT
5 Put Options
$52 Strike, Estimated price at entry near $52-$53
Expiration Friday Jan 25th
Target average price is $2.00 a contract
Investment $1000
Target Asset Price $44-$45
Time of Trade: up to 15 days
Target Option Price $8-$10 (6-8:1 Profit Loss Ratio)
Stop $1.00
Potential Loss -$500
Potential Gain $3000-$4000
Happy Crypto New Year 2025! 🎉💰Happy Crypto New Year 2025! 🚀✨💰🎉
As we welcome another exciting year, let’s remember: 🔑 Your crypto wallet is like your toothbrush—keep it safe, private, and never share it! 🪥
🌟 2025 Crypto Resolutions for Success:
1️⃣ DYOR (Do Your Own Research): Before you HODL, read, learn, and understand. 📚
2️⃣ Embrace the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) : Timing the market is tough; consistency is 🔑.
3️⃣ Secure Your Assets : Use hardware wallets and enable 2FA. Don't get rugged this year! 🔒
4️⃣ Stay Updated: Crypto trends change faster than your favorite meme coins’ charts. 📰
🚀 Fun Crypto Fact:
If you invested $10 in Bitcoin in 2010, you’d have over $250 million today. Start small—dream big! 🌌
🎭 Entertaining Thought:
"Crypto is the only market where people panic when prices are low and celebrate when it’s expensive. Let’s flip that mindset in 2025!" 🤔🎉
💡 Pro Tip for the Year:
The next bull run is built in the bear market. Learn, strategize, and prepare—2025 could be your year! 💼📈
To our amazing community:
This year, let’s not just trade—let’s grow, innovate, and dominate. Together, we’ll explore new opportunities in blockchain, NFTs, DeFi, and beyond. 🌍✨
🎊 Here’s to a prosperous, joyful, and crypto-filled New Year! Drop your 2025 crypto goals in the comments! Let’s inspire each other.
💬 #HODL #CryptoNewYear #Blockchain2025
Triangle Pattern BtcLets see if this pattern plays out to the maths - the drop should equal the rise - This is a different type of chart than i normally draw and shows lower prices but i'm interested to experiment with a classic pattern
Dead Presidents. Full Bust?The Cypher pattern never entered the bullish descending triangle. If current levels don't hold we will be entering the Megaphone pattern. See the levels on chart for support and resistance.
R.I.P. Jimmy
Funeral Services start Tomorrow January 4th. The Market is closed January 9th in memorial.
God Bless America.
Please Comment, share, rocket.
Btc Longterm Gann Monthly CandlesYou know it has to happen - Apart from the obvious Gravestone Doji we have a perfect trend line hit from the 20k top thru the 69k top and clipping us off here at 108k - We're going to bounce on the way down but Gann scaling and Fibs put the bottom around 33k in spring to summer 2026 - Good luck peoples - Happy Xmas :)
Buy under 100K and Target 125K by Jan 20Simple strategy of buying bitcoin when it's trading under 100K leading up to Trump Presidency, I don't see why Bitcoin can't continue to 125K by Jan 20 (Trump inauguration). Fed went from from dovish to dovish/neutral in my opinion, not hawkish. This is a buying opportunity and the strong reversal forming a bullish hammer after the cooling PCE report today is the confirmation to continue buying BTC here.
BTC Hold to New HighHappy New Years Eve Traders,
I'm looking for the marked levels to hold and BTC to send to 109k new ATH.
$BTC #HeadNShoulder #TechnicalTOPWhen AMEX:SPY and CRYPTOCAP:BTC put up #HeadNShoulder Patterns I listen and risk off. How about yall?
I'm Short AMEX:SPY already, might short NASDAQ:IBIT at open tomorrow if we start to crack.
1/17 or 1/31 Strikes #TBD
Am I seeing things or I this as clear as it looks to y'all too?
Investopedia link; www.investopedia.com
BOOOOOOM
-ProbablysBearish
BTCUSD SIGNAL CHECK HERE Hello traders check BTCUSD signal here share your ideas about it .
According to my personal analysis bitcoin falls down up to given targets , lets follow it now .
Here is my Technical targets ,
Take profit 1. 94000
Take profit 2. 92000
Stop loss is .97000
Support with your likes and comments ,Follow me for timely updates .
