BITCOIN MAJOR PUMP! Price Analysis I hope you guys enjoyed the video!; let me know if you have any questions or comments and be sure to check out my Stock Market Idea
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BITCOIN Same bottom, different year.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has formed a Triangle pattern of Lower Highs (Resistance) and Higher Lows (Support), following the February 28 Low. The bullish confirmation will be given if the price breaks above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but this already looks like a Bottom formation, similar to the Triangle patterns formed around August 2024 and September 2023.
Those were the major bottoms (so far) of the 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle and it won't be surprising at all if 2025 has its own now that will drive BTC to its eventual Top towards the end of the year.
Both rallies that followed the 2023 and 2024 Triangle break-outs, reached at least their 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, this gives us a minimum medium-term Target of $120000 in the event the 4H MA200 breaks.
So do you think this is a standard Bull Cycle Triangle bottom formation? And if yes, is $120k the immediate Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
We had told you, 'March gonna be BIG'Crypto Market Update – March Momentum in Full Swing! 🚀🔥
Alright, traders, March is here, and the market is pumping! No surprises here—I mentioned back in early February that I expected a strong March due to the delayed cycle effect, and here we are. The news followed the charts, not the other way around, which is why we stay ahead of the game! 📊🔍
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
📍 Support levels:
$91,000
$91,206 (key short-term level)
$91,353 (minor support)
📍 Breakout zone:
Above $96,000, price is totally free to explore higher levels. Watch out for resistance clusters on the way up.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
💎 Major resistance:
$2,627 - $2,634
📍 Breakout target:
Over $2,634, we should see a run toward $4,000. 🚀
Ethereum remains extra bullish—momentum is strong!
Solana (SOL/USD)
📈 Key levels:
Support: $166.72
Resistance: $215 - $223
Solana has broken back into its channel, showing strong momentum. A better entry is now possible, given solid support at $166.72.
Cardano (ADA/USD)
🔥 Trade of the week!
Major support: $1.00, $0.98
Target: $1.19, with bullish continuation potential
If we lose the $0.98 support, then it's time to consider shorting. Otherwise, the momentum is strongly bullish.
XRP (Not my top pick, but here’s the setup)
📍 Support: $2.48, with additional support around $2.66
📍 Resistance: $3.11 - $3.30
Wouldn't be my preferred trade right now, but price action will tell us more.
🚨 Breaking News: Market Liquidity Surge!
Over $330 billion added to the crypto market in just 4 hours! 💰🔥
Trump announces a Crypto Strategic Reserve 💎🇺🇸, consisting of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies, aligning with Executive Order 14178.
The market is picking up steam, and levels are holding strong. Keep your eyes on these key support/resistance zones, set alerts, and trade smart. Exciting times ahead! 🚀💡
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
🔗 Stay updated on my TradingView!
Bitcoin - The Uptrend Remains 100% Valid!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) can create a textbook break and retest:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks we have only been seeing a consolidation on all cryptocurrencies, governed by the slow movement on Bitcoin. With today's drop Bitcoin is now approaching the previous all time highs, which are now acting as a major support, pushing price much higher.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTC DROPS FROM 95K TO 85K BUT SHOWS POSITIVE SIGNS FOR A 97K BOUBTC DROPS FROM 95K TO 85K BUT SHOWS POSITIVE SIGNS FOR A 97K BOUNCE
1. Last Night’s Move: A Gentle Dip
Last night, BTC pulled off a smooth adjustment, sliding from 95k to 85k—right in line with expectations. The market’s been a mix of green and red, probably leaving traders a bit dizzy. But here’s the catch: BTC hasn’t finished carving out its bottom on the weekly (W) cycle yet.
2. Price Journey: More Drama Ahead
78k to 95k: Late February 2025, BTC surged from 78k to 95k—solid momentum with spiking volume.
95k to 85k: Last night’s 10k drop came with an RSI hovering around 50 (not oversold), hinting the selling pressure isn’t done.
Positive Signs: A slight bounce from 85k this morning, paired with rising buy volume, suggests BTC could eye 97k in the next few days.
The high zone stays at 97k—the nearest resistance. But the low zone for March? I’m pegging 66k-71k, backed by the MA200 (W) support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 107k peak.
3. What’s Next?
BTC hasn’t hit its true bottom—this dip is just a warm-up for a deeper test. March 2025 still has some swings in store:
If it holds 85k, we might see 97k next week.
If it breaks 80k, brace for 71k—or even 66k—where the weekly cycle bottom could land.
Wrap-Up: Don’t FOMO the Bounce
BTC’s drop from 95k to 85k isn’t the end of the story. The upcoming 97k bounce is a short-term trade chance, but the real bottom at 66-71k is where the big play waits. Don’t FOMO this recovery—stay patient.
Bitcoin Final UpdateEverything on the charts...
Up to you now... Yes... I believe it's just Reaccumulation
Look at the previous posts for more explanation and all perspectives
I'm holding and I'm bullish...We will witness an alt season this year (those saying we won't will be proven wrong...)
BTC.D will fall and strong alts will rise (with massive returns)
Until Next Time...
BTC Bitcoin update 26 FEB 2025Memes sucked up all the liquidity.
At some point, a lot of crypto experts started screaming left and right that memes are mass adoption and a narrative for the future bull.
I've always said to be careful. That 99.98% of memes are casino, nothing more.
I've had many people start proving otherwise, but when I blow the question that stumps everyone, “If the token has no utility and no product, who will need to buy it when the buyer runs out? What happens to the token when the early investors start coming out ?” There is almost no one with a sensible answer to this.
Believe that everyone will hold the token, no one will lock in profits, and there will be an endless buyer.
To the question of whether you can make money? Yes, you can.
Statistics show that 7% are on the plus side, and 93% of holders are on the minus side. Are you sure you will not be that last buyer?
Today, I read an article about how one popular, successful influencer lost 700k in 3 weeks.
One by one :
TRUMP after Melania
Then crypto futures Ludomania.
After the apartment sale.
And lastly, LIBRA.
0 result, minus health, morals, and several years of life due to stress.
There are a lot of beautiful messages now that so-and-so wallet made so much on memes, so-and-so wallet made so much. Newcomers do not want to invest in fundamental projects; they want to get rich. As a result, they get into risky stories and lose their deposit completely.
Are there many among your acquaintances who have made good money on memes for their entire portfolio? I emphasize, on the whole portfolio of memes, and not once or twice catching the kush, which safely lost on the next bets?
There was leveraged futures trading that zeroed out newbies with no experience, now memes.
The alt season is a bit delayed because if you analyze the wallets, liquidity flows to the 1% of crypto people. And regular fundamental alts are not growing as there is trivially no buyer right now.
As I said earlier, when Bitcoin hits 120-140k.
130-150k, there will be massive profit taking, and more institutional capital will come in. Many people will start to move, and that's where the fundamentals will be bought up, which will cause the emergence of new retail on the crypto market.
But there's something else that needs to happen here.
The masses must be disappointed in memes and lose even more money so that the “new money” will go to the fundamental projects and not to phantoms.
Can I make money from memes? Yes, you can. But remember, you are not an investor here; you are just playing in a crypto casino.
Want more?
Everything is in the link below the chart
Best Regards EXCAVO
BTC BOTTOM $ - 100% Never Fails (2013 - Today)Bitcoin Weekly Chart Going Back To 10+ Years
We are looking at the BitStamp Green Support Line here that has Marked the bottom correctly before 100% of the time for each each bull cycle pump on bitcoin going 3/3 without fail.
We are now looking to see if we can go 4/4 and mark the new bottom buy with a quick wick down to the green support currently around 73K+ this week, but as each week closes the bitcoin bottom number will rise as the green support line rises over time.
Good luck. Let's see if the 4th time is also the charm.
Positioning broad short crypto for the blitz now. I've explained the full case for this in the below idea.
Short case here is the 76 fill.
Using this to load up again on crypto shorts for a 50% dump.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-4-25: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern is a Top Resistance pattern.
Usually, these types of patterns reflect a market where price moves higher - attempting to find a peak/resistance level, then rolls downward (confirming that resistance level).
Because of yesterday's strong selling after Trump's Tariff comments, I suggest the peak in today's price activity may be set in very early trading.
We're going to have to watch the charts to see how price reacts to more news and the continued restructuring of global economies.
One thing is obvious: the markets are resettling based on Trump's expectations and tariff comments. I checked out TLT and a few other symbols last night, and it appears the Predator Fed comments I made over the past 12+ months are still holding up very well.
Inadvertently, the US has moved into a position of being the 900 lb gorilla of the global markets.
Higher Fed rates for longer are putting pressure on global currencies and many global economies.
If Trump is able to secure more US manufacturing and a more secure US economy (reducing deficit spending), I can see the next 3+ years being very disruptive for the global markets.
Ultimately, though, building a strong US economy and going through this disruption will lead to explosive growth in 2026 and beyond. You may not see it now, but if we are able to organize our government/finances better going forward - start to think about how powerful that could be for the next 15 to 25+ years.
Next, thank you for all the great comments. Love it.
Gold and Silver are starting to make that recovery rally move after the last 7+ days of selling. This could be a very powerful move to the upside for metals and miners.
Bitcoin is still struggling and will likely stay trapped in a sideways range. that range could be $10k to GETTEX:13K in size - so stay cautious of wild volatility in BTCUSD if you are trading it.
Again,I want to urge all of you to consider your trading as "taking calculated risks" - not gambling.
I talked to a friend just yesterday, and he told me how I changed his life by helping him to stop the gambling-style of trading he was doing. Once you realize that trading is not about those HUGE WINS (sure they are nice) - but it is about staying agile, getting in and out with decent profits, and growing your account efficiently.
So, I urge you to step back and consider every new trade you take as "how much am I really risking if things go wrong". When you do that, you'll find you can still take the trade, but you'll teach yourself to manage your capital more efficiently.
Ok. Go Get Some!
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116?!After a consolidative phase where buyers got trapped at the top, we've seen price drop to the downside liquidating billions in buy orders. I believe this Wave 4 shakeout will be followed by another bull run.
What do you think?
Bitcoin Weekly Timeframe Update: Technical AnalysisLast week closed at $94,265. The lowest close since Bitcoin broke above 90K on the 11-Nov. session happened at $93,563, the 26-Dec. 2024 week. The highest close happened at $104,447 on the 9-Dec. week. This is the trading range. Between $93,000 and $104,000 based on candle close.
Bitcoin went sideways starting early December 2024 and continues sideways to this day. We are projecting an end to this pattern in the coming weeks and months. I can say it is over now but before it shows we need a weekly close above 104. It can take some time because we are set to experience slow and steady grow. Imagine Bitcoin's price growing daily by $500 on average, or maybe $800 or $1,000. It would take 20 days of +$500 daily for Bitcoin to reach $103,000. Just an example.
10 days at +$1,000 each day would add $10,000 to Bitcoin's price. So it would take 30 days to add $30,000. $30,000 would put Bitcoin at $123,000. So imagine Bitcoin trading at 120K in April 2025.
It can go faster or slower but these examples can start to create a picture. With this picture we can build a map.
Last week closed as a hammer. When the hammer shows up at the bottom of a move, it spells the end of such move. Bitcoin didn't produce a downtrend but the three months sideways, between November '24 and February '25 can count as a trend. If the same period had a downward bent, last week's drop and recovery would signal the end of such trend.
Hold on. Let me try and speak clearly. I am saying that the bottom is in.
The new week can start shy and speed up toward the end. The truth is that we have good news and this good news sealed the bottom but the market still has to go through its loading phase. I am talking about several months of bullish consolidation before a major rise takes place. The good news is that a portion of the market, many of the smaller Altcoins, will start to boom in response.
Let's talk resistance and support.
$90,000 is a strong support. There has never been a close below this level. A wick can always touch it or pierce it but this would be short-term. When undesirable action develops, we look for the weekly timeframe for confirmation. Last week is the best example of all. Six days red but the week ended up being neutral. The chart technicals and dynamics stayed the same. Actually, the long lower wick ended up producing a bullish signal.
$90,000 followed by $85,000 are the immediate and main support.
The immediate resistance is set at $97,444.
Once Bitcoin moves and closes above $97,400 we can expect nice growth. While Bitcoin remains below this level, we are still mixed and within consolidation and accumulation. Bullish advance and higher gets confirmed once this resistance breaks.
Once broken, we can consider higher prices, we aim directly at new All-Time Highs. All levels that have been challenged in the past we can ignore. So the main target would be $120,000 followed by $128. Then we have $159,000 and the rest can be consider for the long long-term.
The in-between targets can be seen on the chart.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Bitcoin - Just Objectively Look At The Chart.Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) remains very bullish lately:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Many traders are actually calling the top on Bitcoin but if we objectively look at the chart, situation is entirely different. First, Bitcoin just broke above the previous cycle high with a massive candle and second, we still have a valid rising channel acting as a major support.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
How to Use the VRVP Tool – A Complete Guide for All TradersThe Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) is a powerful tool on TradingView that helps traders identify key price levels where significant trading activity has occurred. It offers a unique view of market structure by highlighting the volume traded at specific price points within the visible range of the chart. Understanding how to effectively use the VRVP can significantly improve your ability to identify important support and resistance levels, spot potential breakouts, and make better trading decisions. This comprehensive guide will take you through everything you need to know about the VRVP tool, including its features, setup, and how to use it in your trading strategy.
What is the VRVP Tool?
The VRVP (Visible Range Volume Profile) is a technical analysis indicator that shows the distribution of trading volume at different price levels within the visible range of your chart. Unlike traditional volume indicators, which show volume over time, the VRVP focuses on volume by price, allowing you to see where buyers and sellers have been most active. It is displayed as a horizontal histogram along the side of the price chart, with high-volume areas indicating key support or resistance levels and low-volume areas often signaling potential breakout points.
Why is the VRVP Tool Important?
The VRVP tool provides several benefits to traders, regardless of their experience level:
Identify Key Support and Resistance Levels: High volume nodes (HVNs) often act as strong support or resistance zones where price tends to stall or reverse.
Spot High and Low Liquidity Areas: Low volume nodes (LVNs) can highlight areas where price may move more quickly due to the lack of market participants.
Predict Breakouts and Reversals: By identifying volume concentration, you can anticipate areas where price may break out or reverse.
Confirm Trends: By analyzing the Point of Control (POC), you can determine the market’s prevailing trend.
Refine Entry and Exit Points: By combining the VRVP with other tools, you can pinpoint optimal entry and exit points for trades.
How to Add the VRVP Tool on TradingView
To start using the VRVP tool on TradingView, follow these steps:
Open your TradingView chart.
Click on the “Indicators” button at the top of the screen.
Search for "VRVP" or "Visible Range Volume Profile" in the search bar.
Click to apply it to your chart.
Adjust the settings by clicking on the gear icon next to the indicator name.
Recommended Settings:
Row Size: Set between 150-250 for more detail (more rows provide more granularity).
Volume Area (%): Set to 70% to highlight where most trading activity has occurred.
Color Up/Down: Choose contrasting colors for buying and selling, making it easy to distinguish between bullish and bearish zones.
Point of Control (POC): Enable this to highlight the price level with the highest volume.
How to Read the VRVP Tool
The VRVP tool consists of three key components:
High Volume Nodes (HVN): These are price levels where a lot of trading activity has occurred. They often act as strong support or resistance, and the price may bounce off these levels multiple times.
Low Volume Nodes (LVN): These are areas with little trading activity. Prices tend to move quickly through these zones as there are fewer market participants. They often indicate potential breakout or breakdown points.
VAL and VAH
VAH (Value Area High)
Definition: The VAH is the price level at the upper boundary of the Value Area. The Value Area represents the range where a set percentage (usually 70%) of all trading volume has occurred within the visible range.
Significance: The VAH is the price point at which the volume profile starts to show less concentration of volume. It is a level above which price has shown less activity compared to the Value Area. When price approaches or breaks through the VAH, it often signals potential resistance and could be a critical level to watch for a reversal or continuation.
VAL (Value Area Low)
Definition: The VAL is the price level at the lower boundary of the Value Area. It represents the lowest price point where around 70% of all the trading volume has occurred within the visible chart range.
Significance: The VAL is a key support level, as it marks the price level where most trading volume has taken place on the downside. A price approaching or breaking below the VAL can signal potential support or a breakdown, indicating where buyers and sellers are actively engaging.
How VAH and VAL Work Together
Value Area: Together, the VAH and VAL define the Value Area, which contains the range of price levels where the majority of trading volume took place. In a healthy market, the price tends to stay within this area. If price breaks out of the Value Area, it could indicate the start of a strong price move in that direction (either upward or downward).
Relevance in Trading: The VAH and VAL act as key levels for traders to monitor:
Above VAH: Price moving above the VAH suggests bullish sentiment, with the next resistance potentially forming above the VAH.
Below VAL: Price moving below the VAL suggests bearish sentiment, with the next support potentially forming below the VAL.
Example of the VAL and VAH:
Point of Control (POC):
This is the price level with the highest trading volume within the visible range. The POC is often used as a key reference point for future price movements. If the price is trading above the POC, it suggests bullish market sentiment; if below, it suggests bearish sentiment.
Example of the POC level:
How to Use the VRVP Tool in Trading
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
High Volume Nodes (HVNs): These levels often act as support or resistance. When price approaches an HVN, it is likely to either reverse or consolidate before moving further. If the price is above an HVN, that level may act as support, while if it's below, the level may act as resistance.
Spotting Breakout Zones
Low Volume Nodes (LVNs): These are areas where price can break out or move rapidly due to the lack of significant trading activity. If price enters an LVN, it may continue moving in the direction of the breakout with minimal resistance.
Using the Point of Control (POC)
The POC acts as a market balance point where the most volume has been traded. If the price is trading above the POC, it signals a bullish market trend, and if below, it signals a bearish trend. Watching the POC can help you gauge the overall market sentiment and potential future price movements.
here is another example of the POC
Confirmation with Other Indicators
To increase the accuracy of your trades, combine the VRVP with other technical indicators such as:
Moving Averages (MA): These help confirm the trend direction and potential reversals.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): This can identify overbought or oversold conditions, which can be used in conjunction with the VRVP to confirm price action.
Candlestick Patterns: Look for reversal or continuation patterns at key volume levels.
Trendlines: Use trendlines to confirm whether price is bouncing off or breaking through key support or resistance levels.
Example Strategy
Step 1: Use the VRVP tool to identify a high volume node (support zone).
Step 2: Check the RSI to see if the market is oversold.
Step 3: Wait for a bullish candlestick pattern (such as a bullish engulfing or hammer).
Step 4: Enter a buy trade with a stop loss placed below the low volume node, which serves as a breakout or breakdown zone.
How to Plan Trades with the VRVP
Here are some scenarios you might encounter when using the VRVP tool:
Price near HVN (Support): Buy with a stop loss placed just below the HVN, as it is likely to act as support.
Price near LVN: Wait for confirmation of a breakout or rejection before taking a position, as price may move rapidly through this area.
Price at POC: Look for reversal or breakout signals. If the price is near the POC, the market may change direction or continue in the current trend.
Price above POC: This indicates a bullish trend continuation. Look for buying opportunities.
Price below POC: This indicates a bearish trend continuation. Look for selling opportunities.
Tips for Beginners
Wait for Confirmation: Always wait for confirmation from price action, other indicators, or candlestick patterns before entering a trade.
Combine with Trend Indicators: Combine the VRVP with trend indicators such as moving averages to ensure you’re trading in the direction of the overall trend.
Use Volume Spikes: Look for volume spikes alongside the VRVP to confirm breakouts.
Practice First: Start using the VRVP tool on a demo account before risking real money to get a feel for its nuances.
Tips for Experienced Traders
Use Multiple Timeframes: Use the VRVP tool on both longer (daily) and shorter (hourly) timeframes to identify the strongest support and resistance levels.
Track the POC Shifts: Observe how the POC moves over time. An upward shift suggests a bullish market, while a downward shift suggests a bearish market.
Combine with Fibonacci Retracements: Combine the VRVP with Fibonacci retracement levels to identify confluence zones, where high volume areas coincide with Fibonacci levels, increasing the likelihood of price reactions at these levels.
Conclusion
The VRVP tool on TradingView is a versatile and powerful tool that offers valuable insights into market structure by analyzing trading volume at different price levels. By understanding how to read and use the VRVP tool, you can identify key support and resistance levels, predict potential breakouts, and refine your entry and exit strategies. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, the VRVP can be a valuable addition to your trading toolkit.
Start practicing on a demo account and gradually incorporate the VRVP tool into your strategy. With time and experience, the VRVP will help you gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and improve your overall trading performance.
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I hope you found this guide on the VRVP tool helpful and that you’ve gained some valuable insights to improve your trading strategy. If you learned something new, don’t forget to give a like! If you have any questions or need further clarification, feel free to leave a comment below. I’d be happy to help!
BTC Cycles & TA: 3/4/25 Well well well... as I mentioned in one of my last video titles, the stage was set for a drawdown and sure enough, indicators and cycles called it AGAIN!! lol but as an investors, I did not partake in trading this down or shorting.. I am simply looking for re-entry points and we have come coming up soon, real soon.
btc shortsbtc hits diagonal resistance and retraces to levels 90k. Breaking downwards suggests a potential continuation to 66k levels.
Bullish Breakout Potential | Target $96,300Bitcoin is holding above a key support zone and showing signs of a potential breakout. If the price sustains above this level, it could push towards the $96,300 target.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: $87,900 – $88,000
• Stop Loss: $85,000
• Target: $96,300 – $96,500
Note: 💡💡💡
123 Quick Learn Trading Tips #5: To HODL, or not to HODL?123 Quick Learn Trading Tips #5:
To HODL, or not to HODL: That is the question
Alright, crypto adventurers, let's talk about HODLing! 🎢
Ever seen this meme?
It perfectly captures the reality of holding onto your Bitcoin! 😂
What newbies think HODLing is: A smooth bike ride to the finish line! 🚴♂️💨
Easy peasy, right? Just buy and wait for the moon! 🚀🌕
What HODLing actually is: A wild rollercoaster through mountains, valleys, stormy seas, and even a cloud with a face! 😱🌊🏔
It's a journey filled with dips, peaks, unexpected turns, and maybe even a few moments where you question your life choices! 😅
But here's the secret sauce: The good news is that the more you learn about Bitcoin, the easier it becomes to HODL. 🧠📈
Why? Because understanding the technology, the fundamentals, and the long-term vision of Bitcoin gives you the conviction to weather the storms. ⛈
You start to see the dips as buying opportunities, not as reasons to panic-sell! 📉➡️📈
So, dive into the world of Bitcoin! Learn about its history, its technology, and its potential! 📚💡
The more you know, the stronger your hands will be, and the smoother that HODL journey will feel! 💪💎
Remember, it's not just about getting to the finish line, it's about enjoying the crazy ride! 🎉
The Cumulative Case for the BTC Bear Let's do a full top down analysis. There's a lot of chatter about this and that why BTC is rallying and selling, but let's take a step back and look at the full context of the TA.
Because here a simple bit of logic - if the TA forecasts were drawing the chart before the news, the news is not as important at the TA. The thing that has already told you what would come is the logical thing to use to attempt to roadmap what might be ahead.
And it was a foreseeable technical break.
That was a basic Elliot forecast off a butterfly high and this is correct within a small margin of error on every swing.
Not only is it getting the top and the bottom, it is also getting the correct style the swings are in.
We'll look more at that later but first let's just zoom out and take a overall view of where we are.
All of the main action in BTC over the last 6 months or so has been inside the zone of the 1.27 - 1.61 of the last major swing.
When we're in this zone we can typically map out three main moves that are likely to happen. One is a breakout upwards, one is a correction and then an uptrend and one is a market break. A trend failure. Full reversal of the trend.
Heading into this area, any of these three things are fair game. It's wise to be prepare for all of these whenever you get to a major 161 level. A trend decision will be made there.
As you can see from the 3 paths proposed, the bull breakout obviously failed. The corrective move would be predicted to end around 80K and it pending failure now and the bear move currently looks most fitting.
Using simple PA has its limitations but if we were to sell hard from here ... it could hardly be said to be unexpected from the context of the monthly chart. Right?
In the original Elliot thesis when we got into the latter end of the break leg there were a couple things we could look for. One would be a spike out to a predictable level (wave 5) and the other would be a correction to a predictable level and in a predictable style (ABC correction).
These would have been 77K - 93K. Here's the post about that before the low was made.
There should be parabolic action in a two leg correction for the ABC.
That would look like this.
From here the market would have to do three things.
One, stop rallying. Seemingly inexplicably. It seems to have only one way it can go but it goes the other.
Second is we have to make the drop in the Elliot manner with a break, pullback and then a bigger break.
We have this.
Notice how this little rally move is marked into the template for the rally and drop.
These conditions would now imply we're inside of a bigger wave 3.
And a big wave 3 predicts a capitulation which would be no less than 50% off the high and I currently feel we're probably talking more like it hitting 45K or so before a bounce.
Nothing to say that bounce would have to be the low.
It's a good time to consider your risk exposure to a break in my opinion.
BTCUSD|Bitcoin Rallies on Trump’s Crypto Reserve – What's Next?Bitcoin's price surged on Sunday following President Donald Trump's announcement of the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve for the United States, which will include Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Aside from technical chart analysis, we must remain prepared for any potential decision by Donald Trump that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s direction.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: 4H Timeframe
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a strong support zone. The price recently touched 91.607 as a correction, from which it is expected to push upwards and stabilize above 93.666 if not long correction phase to 88.730 and below it.
If it successfully holds above this strong support zone 91.607–93.666, it could continue rising towards 96.721.
To confirm a further bullish trend, the price needs to break out of the current channel and establish stability above it with at least a 4-hour candle closure. If this occurs, the next key target will be 99.139, confirming the activation of a bullish trend above the resistance zone.
However, there is also a possibility that the price will extend its correction phase down to 88.730 before beginning an uptrend. If Bitcoin breaks below 88.730, it could fall further to 86.041.
Bearish Target: 91.607, 88.730, 86.041.
Bullish Treaget: 93.666, 96.721, 99.139.
BITCOIN may take 1 month to form bottom but upside is huge.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is consolidating on the 1 stdev below following February's pullback.
With the 1day RSI rebounding after turning oversold, this reminds us of all the previous major Lows of the current Bull Cycle.
Those took around 1.5 - 2 months to be priced, so don't be susprised if Bitcoin doesn't rise before mid April.
The upside until the end of the year remains huge however and if it 'only' tests again the Mean MM, it can reach $140k.
If it approaches the 1 stdev above, the estimated value can be as high as $180k.
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Bitcoin There you go.
NOW you are bearish.
I am laughing so hard about the moonboys.🤡🤡🤡
You know nothing. NOTHING.
