BTCUSD Trading AnalysisChart Overview:
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Pattern: Expanded Triangle (bearish bias)
Current Price: Around $94,330 at the time of chart
Wave Count:
Completed a complex Expanded Triangle at the top.
Initial impulsive wave (Wave ①) already in progress.
Expecting corrective retracement for Wave ② (small bounce).
Then strong downward impulsive Wave ③ projected.
Technical Observations:
1. Expanded Triangle Formation
Type: Bearish Expanded Triangle.
Characteristics observed:
Each subsequent high was higher and each low was lower (classic expanding pattern).
Typically this formation ends with a sharp reversal (which already started).
2. Wave Structure Forecast (Elliott Wave Principle)
Wave ①: First impulsive downward leg already formed.
Wave ②: A minor retracement or bounce is expected (lower high formation).
Wave ③: Strong impulsive fall expected after Wave ②, breaking previous lows.
Wave ④: Small corrective upward retracement.
Wave ⑤: Final downward move completing the 5-wave impulsive structure.
Key Price Levels and Targets:
Target Level (Approx.)
Target 1 $89,300 1.309 Fibonacci extension, interim support
Target 2 $86,000 Next major Fibonacci projection zone
Final Target $84,400 2.618 Fibonacci extension zone, final bearish target
Fibonacci Projections:
1.618 Extension: ~$89,000
2.309 Extension: ~$86,100
2.618 Extension: ~$84,400
Volume and Momentum Check:
Volume: Decreasing during the upward retracements (bearish confirmation).
Momentum: Loss of momentum after the triangle breakout — supporting deeper correction.
Summary of Expectation:
Bitcoin has completed a bearish expanded triangle.
A strong downward impulsive move has started.
Short-term bounce (Wave ②) is possible but lower highs expected.
Likely targets for downward movement are $89,300, $86,000, and possibly $84,400 in the coming days.
Trend Bias: Bearish until BTCUSD reclaims above $95,000 decisively.
Risk Factors:
Watch for invalidation if BTCUSD crosses and sustains above $96,000 (triangle high).
Sudden macro news or BTC-related developments could lead to unexpected volatility.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not a financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before trading.
