BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTC/USD: Structural Breakout of Curved Resistance – Eyes on $116Technical Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully completed a significant technical breakout after months of accumulation and resistance interaction. The chart highlights a precise market structure where price has moved from a phase of consolidation into a confirmed bullish breakout, with a clearly defined target and invalidation level.
1. SR Interchange Zone (Support-turned-Resistance):
From May to October 2024, BTC price action was trapped in a sideways range, marked by an extended accumulation phase between approximately $60,000 to $73,000. This zone acted as a historical resistance level during the downtrend, but was later flipped into support, forming a classic SR Interchange — a foundational concept in market structure analysis.
This area provided a strong base from which BTC launched its late 2024 rally.
2. Consolidation Below Curved Resistance (Dec 2024 – Apr 2025):
Following a steep bullish impulse, BTC entered a multi-month consolidation phase, forming a rounded top pattern — shown on the chart as the Black Mind Curve Resistance. This curved resistance represented a psychological and structural ceiling, suppressing bullish momentum and trapping liquidity.
Price action was tightly compressed under this dynamic resistance curve, with multiple failed breakout attempts. This period was marked by range-bound volatility and low directional commitment — classic behavior during a re-accumulation phase.
3. Breakout of Black Mind Curve Resistance (May 2025):
A major technical event occurred as BTC broke decisively above the Black Mind Curve Resistance, accompanied by a surge in bullish momentum. This move not only invalidated the prior rounding top structure but also confirmed a trend continuation breakout.
The breakout was clean, with strong follow-through volume and a higher high structure above the Major Horizontal Resistance Zone (~$105,000–$109,000) — now confirmed as flipped support.
4. Bullish Continuation & Price Target:
Following the breakout, BTC has established a higher low and continued its upward trajectory toward the marked target zone at $116,065. This zone coincides with:
Previous untested supply levels
Technical Fibonacci extension (1.272–1.618 zone)
Measured move from the curve structure base
With current momentum and structure intact, BTC remains bullishly biased until it either reaches the target zone or breaks below the invalidation level.
5. Invalidation & Risk Management:
A close below $102,005 — the defined SI (Support-Invalidation) level — would be considered structurally bearish. This level represents:
The most recent higher low
Base of the breakout structure
Re-entry into previous consolidation range
A breakdown below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis and may open the door for a deeper pullback toward $95,000 or even $88,000.
✅ Conclusion:
The breakout of the Black Mind Curve Resistance marks a significant technical shift in Bitcoin’s trend. With momentum in favor of the bulls and market structure supporting higher prices, BTC appears poised to test the $116,000 target zone in the short to mid-term — barring a breakdown below key support.
📌 Key Levels Recap:
Level Type Price
Target Zone $116,065
Current Price $110,902
Support / Invalidation (SI) $102,005
📈 Strategy Outlook:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Area: Retest of $107,000–$109,000 (if offered)
Target: $116,065
Stop-Loss: Below $102,005 (structural invalidation)
💬 Stay focused on structure, not emotions. The best trades are born from patience, not prediction.
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New highs for bitcoin above $110,000Bitcoin has performed very strongly overall since the second half of last month, moving up to test fresh record highs currently. Possible American deregulation is in focus while appetite for risk has recovered recently as rhetoric on trade, particularly between China and the USA, has calmed down significantly. MVRV is about 2.2, so the uptrend might be mature, but sentiment remains mostly greedy. The more dovish scenarios for the Fed this year seem much less likely than around this time last month with a plurality of participants now expecting only two cuts by the end of 2025.
From the chart, it's also pretty clear that the medium-term uptrend starting around the middle of April is mature. Buying saturation from the stochastic or RSI is obvious but this usually isn't such an important factor for a cryptocurrency. The 100% weekly Fibonacci extension was previously a resistance so might now flip to being an area of support if the price can hold above $107,000 for more than a couple of days. The obvious longer term target would be the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion around $140,000.
An immediate consolidation or correction much below $100,000 seems quite unlikely under the current circumstances. The main dynamic support for now could be the 20 SMA around $102,600. This is a potentially difficult situation for new buyers because it presents a dilemma whether to 'jump on the rocket' quickly at the risk of there being no more 'rocket' for a while or to wait for a significant consolidation which equally might mean missing any further 'rocket'.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Bitcoin chart moving up to resistance Bitcoin is bullish and moving up to resistance point. Pullback to support level likely after.
Artavion Analysts Forecast Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by End of MThe analytical company Artavion has released an updated forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of May 2025. According to the experts, amid sustained institutional demand and limited supply following the recent halving, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $100,000 in the coming days.
Key Growth Drivers
Analysts highlight several factors contributing to Bitcoin's price growth:
📈 Institutional Demand: Ongoing accumulation by investment funds and banks through spot ETFs approved in the U.S. and Asia.
⛏ Reduced Supply: The April halving has decreased miner rewards, limiting daily BTC issuance.
🇺🇸 Fed Policy Easing: Expectations of interest rate cuts are increasing demand for alternative assets, including crypto.
💼 Market Confidence: Growth in long-term holders and increasing BTC withdrawals from exchanges indicate a “HODLing” trend among investors.
Company Comment
"We are witnessing stable accumulation and a capital shift into digital assets. If markets avoid major shocks, Bitcoin has every chance to consolidate above $95,000 and briefly test the psychological barrier of $100,000," said Alexey Gurov, senior strategist at Artavion.
Potential Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts point out several risks that could impact the forecast:
📉 Unexpected macroeconomic data (e.g., rising inflation, stronger U.S. dollar);
⚠️ Regulatory actions from the SEC or other global bodies;
🌍 Escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could trigger risk-off sentiment.
Conclusion
Considering the current market environment and macroeconomic expectations, Artavion maintains a positive short-term outlook for Bitcoin through the end of May, while cautioning investors to remain aware of the sector’s inherent volatility and risk.
Market next move
1. Overreliance on Basic Support/Resistance
Issue: The analysis uses a simple support/resistance concept without clear validation (e.g., no multiple touches or volume confirmation).
Disruption: Support could easily break if there's insufficient volume or strong bearish sentiment, invalidating the buy signal.
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2. Lack of Confirmation Indicators
Issue: There's no use of confirmation tools like RSI, MACD, or moving averages.
Disruption: Entering a "Buy" based purely on support without a reversal signal (like bullish divergence or candle patterns) increases risk.
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3. Premature Target Setting
Issue: The target is drawn quickly after a minor dip, with no fib levels, pivot points, or historical resistance considered.
Disruption: The price might face resistance before reaching the “Target,” especially around previous highs or psychological levels.
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4. Ignoring Downside Risk
Issue: The scenario assumes price will bounce back but doesn’t show a stop-loss or contingency for a breakdown.
Disruption: If price breaks the "Support" zone, it could trigger a stronger bearish move—this risk is not accounted for.
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5. Misleading Arrows
Issue: Arrows (red, yellow, blue) seem speculative and oversimplified.
Disruption: They imply a clear path, which can mislead traders into thinking price action follows linear logic—real markets are more chaotic.
The BTC/USD Short PlayNew high, new trend lines.
I saw a correction coming on the charts, using two trendline - 1 as my trend, the second as my safety, I set up a short for a lower level profit target.
BTC on weekly chart ( cup and handle )CRYPTO:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
As an overview of Bitcoin on the weekly chart.
We have a cup and handle targeting the area at 131,000 and I think this price is the target of this cycle.
We also have the neckline zone at the price of 73k and we see that the price is still trading above it until now, so in the event of any other decline, I think the neckline area is the lowest price that will be reached and represents the retest point to start for the new highs.
We also note that the price is still above the averages: 50-100-200 and we notice its rebound when it touched the average of 50
Conclusion: Since we are above the 70-73 thousand zone, there is no need to worry because this indicates that the chart is moving in the right direction, but in the event of a break in the 70k zone, this will be the first sign of the beginning of the negative.
UPDATE SOON ....
Bitcoin Ready for 120K land?
DAILY
CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaking TRY hard up to $111.9K, hitting the 161.8% Critical moment!
Watch for a potential pullback to the 38%–50% zone, where key support and retracement levels align.
Will it correct or continue pumping?
The conquest of 20K is near?
MONTHLY
Focus on the monthly... The structure IMO is setting targets over 120... Maybe 135K.
Based on the classic book 📚 bullish patterns. By the way a DEEP retracement ending month can be expected to monthly supports near 105K could be healthy.
WEEKLY near 105K 106K in this area a kind of Right #SHOULDER can be developed in the next 2 weeks of this end month and the new one.
Could be a Cup And the handle is in developing too.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading
Major resistance?There is strong resistance at this level, with a long-term trend in this region dating back to the peak in 2017. The recent halving seems to be priced in, and we have a bottom trend line at 45k. Remember the Wall Street phrase: "up like a staircase, down like an elevator." There is a lot of greed in the market, and valuations are increasing daily over the next six months. This is my long-term exit point until the next bear market presents a buying opportunity. I plan to buy and sell when prices reach the identified yellow lines.
Bitcoin Ready for new highAs we see BINANCE:BTCUSD break the previous high and made rounding bottom formation on chart.
So Looks like a bullish trend and if BINANCE:BTCUSD
sustain above 109000 then we can see BINANCE:BTCUSD
Up to around 133000.
Lets see!
This post is just my perception and for study purpose only.
As crypto market has high risk of loosing money. Please invest your hard earned money carefully.
I will not be responsible for any loss in the crypto market.
BTC top at 150kBullrun 1: (731 days) November 2011 - December 2013: BTC top at 2.414 Fib log-scaled level.
Bullrun 2: (792 days) August 2015 - December 2017: BTC top at 2.414 Fib log-scaled level.
Bullrun 3: (884 days) March 2019 - October 2021: BTC top at 1.618 Fib log-scaled level.
Bullrun 4: (882 days) January 2023 - Now: BTC top at 1.618 Fib log-scaled level? Or lower at 1.414 Fibo?
We are so closed to the end of Bullrun. Crazy run for Alts before Bear Market.
Stay safe out there.
BTC-Above 114000 dont make any upside entry BTC-Above 114000 dont make any upside entry. There is a resistance zone even it moves above might be a fake breakout. Be very very careful above 114000. Mostly side way or downward movement post it touches 114k
BTCUSD Technical Analysis.This chart represents the Bitcoin (BTC) to US Dollar (USD) trading pair on the 1-hour timeframe (BITSTAMP exchange), published on May 21, 2025.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price: The price is currently at $109,232, showing a gain of +2,362 (+2.21%).
2. Chart Pattern:
There was a rising wedge formation that has now broken to the upside.
A strong bullish breakout occurred after consolidation within the wedge.
3. Support Zones:
Two rectangular zones drawn below the breakout point indicate potential support levels (areas where price might bounce if it pulls back).
4. Target Price:
An upward arrow with a zigzag path points to the $110,332 level, suggesting a bullish target or take-profit zone.
5. SL Mark: A small "SL" (likely indicating Stop Loss) is shown beneath the support zones, hinting at a risk management plan.
This chart suggests a bullish outlook for BTC/USD, anticipating further upward movement after the breakout, with $110,332 as a possible next target, while keeping support zones and a stop-loss level in mind for downside protection. Let me know if you'd like help analyzing the setup further or setting up trade parameters.
Needs a correction down to $100Broke previous highs took-out stops! Typically, this area is a profit taking zone, which creates a correction discount for investors to buy back-in at lower prices!
BTC Bullish Pennant target reached, what now?BTC Bullish Pennant target reached, what now? Will we go down from here? Have we seen the top? Time will tell.
Btc fib levels Btc has hit 111000 we are hitting levels we need to stay above 109740 look for a pullback enter buy green candle close above level lock in. Profits
BTC No Fancy TA Just SpeculationBTC breakout and close over ATH. Short term bullish on BTC and lagging alts.
$BTC Historic Daily Close Above ATH - Pullback Warning*HISTORIC Daily Close for ₿itcoin marking a new ATH 🥇
Some hefty volume poured in as the Golden Cross nears.
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaks down from this impulsive trend we should see a pullback to the .786 Fib ~$102k to confirm this new ATH.
Bulls need the Weekly Close above $109k to prevent that.
Nonetheless, this confirms the start of the parabola I’ve mentioned over the past month in my analysis 💯
Next big target is the 1.618 Fib ~$130k 🤑
Congrats Hodlers 🥳
Bitcoin Breakout: Hourly Surge Signals Scalable SetupBTC Breakout Setup – Hourly Base Within a Base
Bitcoin is breaking out of a short-term consolidation pattern—a base within a base—with strong volume confirming the move on the hourly chart.
Trade Setup
📈 Entry: 105,016.94–105,547.31
🛑 Stop: 101,400
🎯 Target: 109,358
Strategy Insight:
If BTC breaks through the first target, it will trigger a new entry. At that point, I’ll move the stop from the initial position to match the stop on the new trade. This tactic helps finance the new entry using the gains from the original trade, effectively minimizing risk while scaling into a larger position.
BTC HTF ThoughtsChart from end of Dec/early Jan. Idea back then was that the top is in, and we'll revisit at least 51.5 levels. IMO low will be between 41.5-32.5, with potential to reach 23s.
However, it won't happen in one day and it's finally at prices i want to scale in and hold for the next weeks/months incase i'm wrong with the macro idea.
I'm a buyer between 74-62, levels in between are 72, 69, 65 and 62.
BTC Breaks into New Highs – What's Next After $110K?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Breaks into New Highs – What's Next After $110K?
BTC has successfully tapped the $110,000 level, reaching a fresh multi-month high. This move confirms a strong breakout from the prior range with persistent bullish momentum.
🔸 Key Support Zone at $99,856
Previous resistance now acts as a critical support. Holding above $99.8K will maintain bullish structure. A dip to $90,209 could act as a liquidity sweep before another leg up.
🔸 Upside Target: $115K – $120K
If BTC consolidates above $110K, next upside zones are $115K and $120K based on Fibonacci extension and prior volume voids. A breakout beyond $110.5K could trigger these levels rapidly.
🔸 Risk Level at $99K
Losing $99K support would weaken bullish momentum, shifting the short-term bias toward a retest of the $90K demand zone.
🔸 Next Steps:
Look for a clean daily close above $110K. If BTC sustains this level with volume, continuation toward $115K is likely. In case of a pullback, buying near $100K–$102K could offer a high-RR entry with SL under $99K.
