Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Idea – Short Setup on 15-Min ChartWeekend trading plan assuming this short trade setup plays out. The plan will cover:
- Bias & Setup
- Entry, SL & TP
- Risk Management
- Scenario Planning
- Weekend Strategy Considerations
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🧠 Bias & Setup
- Current Setup : Short trade initiated near $83,477 with SL above (around $83,800), targeting lower zones (TP1, TP2).
- Structure : Price is breaking down from a pullback after a sharp move. MA crossover (green and blue lines) shows short-term bearish bias.
- Trendline : Downside move could reach the ascending trendline acting as long-term support.
🎯 Trade Details
- Entry : Around $83,477 (market or retest entry).
- Stop Loss (SL): Above recent high (approx. $83,800–$83,850).
- Take Profit 1 (TP1): ~83,000 (based on image).
- Take Profit 2 (TP2):~82,600 or slightly above the trendline.
> R:R ratio looks favorable—approx. 1:2 or higher depending on execution.
💰 Risk Management
- Risk per Trade : 1-2% of account balance.
- Position Sizing : Based on SL distance (~$300–$350).
- Execution Tip : Use partial profit booking at TP1 and trail stop to breakeven or better for TP2.
📉 Scenario Planning
1. Ideal Play (Bearish Breakdown) :
- Price breaks below short-term support.
- Hits TP1 and continues toward TP2 or trendline.
- Consider long re-entry near trendline if reversal signals appear.
2. Invalidation (Stop-Out) :
- Price pushes above $83,800–$83,850.
- Exit with controlled loss.
- Watch for possible trend continuation upward if rejection is weak.
3. Sideways Market :
- No clear break of recent range.
- Consider staying flat or using a range-trading approach with tight SL.
🗓️ Weekend Strategy Tips
- Volatility : Expect lower volume late Saturday into early Sunday; spreads may widen.
- No Forced Trades : If price consolidates and no follow-through, wait until Monday volatility returns.
- Alerts : Set alerts near TP1, TP2, and SL zones to monitor without screen-watching.
- News Watch : Be aware of any upcoming macro/crypto news that may trigger unexpected movement.
✅ Checklist Before Execution
- Clear confirmation of price rejection or continuation
- SL and TP levels set
- Position size calculated based on SL
- Alerts in place
- Review of higher timeframe for bias alignment
