BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTCUSD Analysis – Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) Action + Target🧭 Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) Explained
Mirror Market Concepts analyze repeating emotional and structural patterns in the market—like looking at a price “mirror” that reflects past movements into the present. Core tools include:
Mind Curve Resistance/Support
CHoCH (Change of Character)
BOS (Break of Structure)
Price Reflection Zones
These tools let us understand not just what price is doing—but why it's reacting at specific levels.
📊 Technical Breakdown of the Chart
🔹 1. Black Mind Curve Support & Resistance
The chart is framed between a rising support curve and a descending resistance curve, forming a psychological squeeze zone.
These mind curves represent subconscious institutional memory—where reactions often repeat based on historical liquidity and risk-off/on behavior.
🔹 2. Major CHoCH (Change of Character)
Price broke below a previous minor higher low, shifting sentiment from bullish to neutral/bearish.
This CHoCH happened within the mind curve boundary, signaling that we’re transitioning into a decision phase.
🔹 3. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
The BOS occurred during the recent drop, confirming sellers took temporary control.
However, price respected the lower mind curve support, which may still hold as the "mirror zone."
🔹 4. Key Compression Pattern (MMC Symmetry)
Price is forming a symmetrical wedge between the two curves, often seen in MMC just before a major explosive move.
The pattern resembles past behavior where price compressed before breaking out in either direction.
🎯 Potential Scenarios (Plotted on Chart)
📈 Bullish Path:
If BTC breaks above the descending curve + confirms above 109,000, we may see:
✅ Target 1: 111,000 (BOS retest)
✅ Target 2: 112,500–113,000 zone (previous emotional high + liquidity sweep)
📉 Bearish Path:
A breakdown below 107,000 and curve support suggests sellers regain control:
⚠️ Target 1: 105,000 (local demand zone)
⚠️ Target 2: 102,500–103,000 (full MMC retrace)
⚠️ Watchlist Considerations:
Two key economic news events (highlighted on chart) could serve as catalysts.
Wait for confirmation and volume breakout before committing to either side.
This is a textbook MMC compression pattern, and patience is key before reacting.
🧠 What Makes This an MMC Setup?
🔄 Mirror Reflection of past rallies and drops forming current wedge
🧩 Mind Curve Boundaries acting like subconscious trend guides
🔁 CHoCH + BOS sequencing for momentum shift detection
💡 Psychological memory zones holding strong reactions
📌 Summary
BTC is caught in a psychological squeeze between mind curve support and resistance.
Structure favors a coming breakout or breakdown, but confirmation is critical.
MMC tools show a high-probability setup—either toward 112K or 103K based on where the breakout happens.
📣 Community CTA (Call-to-Action):
📊 How are you trading this BTC curve compression?
💬 Share your charts, setups, or alternate views below. Let’s decode the market mirror together.
BTC Macro Bull Cycle – Wave 3 Target Based on Fibonacci ($200K?)This is a long-term BTCUSD (1W) chart analysis, combining macro Elliott Wave structure and technical support using Fibonacci extension levels.
The “3?” label is not placed arbitrarily — it’s derived from Fibonacci projections, extending from Wave 1 and the retracement in Wave 2. The estimated target zone near $200K aligns with the 1.618–2.618 Fibonacci extension level, often associated with Wave 3 in classical Elliott Wave theory.
Structure:
Wave 1: Peaked around $20K (2017 cycle top).
Wave 2: Corrective phase bottomed around $3–4K.
Wave 3 (current): BTC has broken prior all-time highs and is consolidating in the $60K–$70K zone — likely a re-accumulation phase before a breakout.
Key Zones:
Green boxes mark historical accumulation and support/resistance zones.
Orange circles highlight areas of consolidation and buying interest during major corrections.
The current green zone (~$60K) may act as a mid-cycle base before the next impulsive move.
Targets & Risk Management:
Upside target: $180K–$220K range (based on Fib extension).
Stop-loss zone: Below $55K, as a breakdown here may invalidate the current bullish structure.
Conservative risk management is advised.
Final Thoughts:
This analysis is grounded in historical behavior and Fibonacci logic — not just hopeful speculation. If BTC is indeed in Wave 3 of this macro cycle, the most explosive phase may still be ahead. The “3?” target is based on measurable data, not guesswork.
Is alt season still coming?Hello there!
This idea to continue my previous idea about BTC here
Then, what next?
Let's breakdown money flow in term about alt season path
1. First phase the BINANCE:BTCUSD must blow up, it mean the money goes to Bitcoin
1.5. Money flow transition, from Bitcoin euphoria to Ethereum
2. Second phase, is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin
2.5. Money flow transition, from Ethereum euphoria to big cap altcoins
3. Third phase, Big Cap altcoin with strong fundamental are going parabolic
3.5.Money flow transition to more altcoin, small cap, mid cap, whatever it is, if the fundamental good and the narrative match, it will going up.
4. Fourth phase, alt season when almost everything have high chance to prices surges, green everything.
Now, in which phase?
I think we still in First phase, but it still not complete yet.
So, I prepare to watch this sign for phase 1.5:
Bitcoin dominance. This indicator for "where the money on", if the Bitcoin dominance going down, it's a sign if the money moving slowly to another asset. (according to the path, the money will move to Ethereum)
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index . This add on indicator for watch the sentiment from US investor (especially large institution) to Bitcoin.
Ethreum netflow . This to see how big the Ethereum netflow from exchange. You can watch and learn there.
Then, what should we do now?
Watch the sign from the BTC and ETH price, for sure with the 3 indicator above.
My prediction is bitcoin price will sideways for a while or little bit down , but the dominance will slowly going down. From recent candle, BTC make descending candle and ETH make ascending candle.
Let's wait and see!
Thankyou for reading, I hope everyone have a good day!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Break & Retest of ATH Signals Uptrend to $120K?Overview Summary
Bitcoin ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) is retesting a major zone after its breakout above the previous ATH resistance zone of $105K–$107K, a level that previously marked the top of the 2024 cycle before it pulled back to $76K. This chart now shows BTC pulled back from $111K highs, potentially validating a classic "break and retest" pattern and continuation of the overall trend.
Price action is unfolding within a clean ascending uptrend channel structure that has defined the bull trend since late March. With BTC currently testing the upper boundary of this previous major resistance zone ($105K–$107K), this area now acts as the "make-or-break level" for the long awaited bull run.
If buyers continue to hold this level, the market may resume its upward momentum with heavy strength, opening the door to the next leg towards our medium term target of $120K+ as projected by the channel extension. However, a decisive close below $105K would invalidate this near-term structure and suggest deeper consolidation or a sentiment reset.
Key Technical Structure
Major Resistance & Support: $105K–$107K
Trend Channel: Active
Short Term Resistance: $112K
Key Target Zone: $118K–$122K
Invalidation Zone: < $105K
Why This Setup Matters
This is a textbook breakout retest structure, when previous cycle highs are reclaimed and flipped into support, it often sets the stage for rapid continuation. The fact that BTC is pausing here rather than collapsing suggests the market is preparing for this decision.
Break & Retest at this current price zone would:
Reinforce bullish market structure
Invite trend-following buyers and institutions waiting for confirmation
Set up asymmetric long entries targeting $120K
Signal broader strength across the crypto market, likely dragging other cryptos upward
Future Outlook & Trade Setup
If BTC respects the $105K–$107K zone, we anticipate a strong push toward the next major resistance zone between near $120K. Watch for volume and wick rejection to confirm demand.
Trade Plan (If Support Holds)
Entry: < $107K
Short-Term Target: $112K
Long-Term Target: $120K+
Invalidation: Break below $105K
Final Take
Bitcoin is at a pivotal zone where market memory and technical structure converge. If this retest holds, it validates a breakout continuation structure with room to run toward $120K+.
If this zone fails, we expect a deeper retest into $100K–$102K or lower.
Bitcoin Breakout: Hourly Surge Signals Scalable SetupBTC Breakout Setup – Hourly Base Within a Base
Bitcoin is breaking out of a short-term consolidation pattern—a base within a base—with strong volume confirming the move on the hourly chart.
Trade Setup
📈 Entry: 105,016.94–105,547.31
🛑 Stop: 101,400
🎯 Target: 109,358
Strategy Insight:
If BTC breaks through the first target, it will trigger a new entry. At that point, I’ll move the stop from the initial position to match the stop on the new trade. This tactic helps finance the new entry using the gains from the original trade, effectively minimizing risk while scaling into a larger position.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis.This is a technical analysis chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe from TradingView, published on May 27, 2025. Here's a breakdown of the key components:
Current Price: BTC is trading at 109,566.
Resistance Zone: Around 110,211, marked by a horizontal line.
Support Zone: Highlighted in the beige rectangle, with a target at approximately 107,488.
Trade Setup:
Short Bias: The chart suggests a potential short position if price rejects the resistance zone.
Target: 107,488 (within the support zone).
Stop Loss (SL): 111,419, above the resistance zone.
Two Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario (Primary Idea): Price gets rejected at resistance and falls to the support zone (green arrow).
Bullish Scenario (Invalidation): Price breaks above the resistance and moves higher (red arrow).
This setup shows a risk-reward ratio favorable for shorting near resistance with a stop above it, targeting the prior demand zone. Let me know if you want help applying this analysis to a live trade.
BTC - Bottom soon?I recently published this idea privately because I was unable to post it publicly at the time. Now, I’d like to make it public.
(Click the picture above to view the TA-Chart.)
I'll be copying and pasting all the text from the original private idea here, along with the missing links I had prepared on April 2nd.
The purpose of this chart is just to illustrate how my three target levels align with my Fibonacci retracement levels — which is also the reason I selected them.
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We are currently in a complex situation. Markets have been experiencing a sell-off due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs. Additionally, Trump needs to refinance a massive sum of government debt ($7 trillion) over the next 10 years. To achieve this, he must lower the 10-year yield to reduce interest payments.
One way to lower yields is by increasing government efficiency, thereby reducing borrowing needs and bond issuance, which in turn decreases yields. Another method is cutting interest rates, yet his tariff policies counteract this approach. This raises the question: does he want a recession? During a recession investors would flock toward bonds as a safe haven, ultimately pushing yields down.
Bad Signs
- Fed Atlanta GDPNow Gold adjusted at -0.8%
- PMI below 50
- Major uncertainty due to enormous tariffs
-> Michigan Consumer Sentiment (57) and Expectation (52.6) are at levels seen during the recession of 2022
- FED cannot cut interest rates due to persistently high inflation
Are we heading towards a recession?
People tend to overreact and overlook key indicators—one of which is liquidity. Examining the WTREGEN, we see a steep decline since mid-February, indicating that cash has been injected into the system.
This is further supported by the rising RRPONT since mid-February. Additionally, the Fed has been slowing down QT, meaning the liquidity injection is not being offset as much.
Additionally due to the tariffs countries like China could bring a liquidity stimilus into the markets to help their domestic markets.
In summary, liquidity levels should be sufficient for at least a blow-off top. The reason markets have not rallied yet is due to uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariffs. This is reflected in recession-level Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index.
A key bullish signal would be a falling RRPONT alongside a declining WTREGEN, as this would indicate that cash injections are flowing into risk assets, showing regained confidence. For confidence to return, we need a positive catalyst, such as an stop to QT, an increase of the balance sheet or an interest rate cut. However, the Fed is holding off on cuts due to high inflation and the tariffs.
But this is where it gets interesting:
According to Truflation, inflation has dropped significantly below the Fed’s 2% target since early March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data lags by a full month, so if Truflation’s data holds any truth, the upcoming inflation report on April 10 may reflect this decline. This could restore confidence and provide the Fed with room to give us a positive catalyst.
Where is BTC headed?
Compared to my expectations from early february ( ibb.co ) I expect BTC to first move into the $78K–73K range before rallying toward $115K instead of rallying now at 82k. This range aligns with my Fibonacci levels, and 73K was the high of March 2024. Additionally there is currently a fractality compared to the bottom of 2022 where the bottom now would be rougly at 75k.
To reach $115K, BTC must first break the black downward trendline and the double-top neckline at around $95K. My blow-off top target is $115K, and if BTC holds above $100K, I will eye $145K and $185K as the next targets.
Furthermore there could be a chance that the tariffs are just a negotiation tool since the tariffs do not make any sense % wise.
However if Trump does intend to impose these tariffs at the said % and other countries stab back with their tariffs, then we might actually see a stagflation if the Fed does not intervene-or intervenes too late.
Market next target
📊 Original Analysis Summary:
Bias: Bullish reversal expected from the support box.
Path: Minor pullback followed by a breakout toward a higher target.
Indicators: Green arrow bounce, blue and yellow upward paths projecting continuation.
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🚨 Disruption & Bearish Risks:
🔴 1. Support Zone is Weak
The price dipped into the red support box and bounced, but barely made a strong recovery. A weak reaction from this zone could signal buyers are hesitant or exhausted.
🔴 2. Bear Flag Formation
The current price action could be forming a bear flag pattern: a brief upward consolidation following a sharp drop. If confirmed, this would likely lead to another leg down, not up.
🔴 3. Volume Discrepancy
The bounce lacks volume confirmation—note the relatively low buying bars after the large red selling volume spike. This suggests weak bullish conviction and potential for another sell-off.
Bitcoin Daily Outlook – May 28, 2025 Bullish Bias, Eyes on $105K Breakout
🔍 Technical Snapshot:
• Price: ~$103,000
• RSI (14): ~69 – Nearing overbought
• MACD: Bullish crossover
• EMA20 > EMA50 – Uptrend structure intact
🔐 Key Levels:
• Support: $100,000 / $98,500
• Resistance: $105,000 / $108,000
• Breakout Trigger: Daily close above $105K with volume
🧭 Forecast (Next 2–3 Days):
• 🔼 60% chance of breakout to $105K–$108K
• 🔁 25% chance of consolidation
• 🔽 15% chance of pullback to $98K
🌐 Macro Context:
• VIX: ~12.8 (low) – Risk-on environment
• Nasdaq & S&P500: Bullish – Correlated upside pressure
• DXY: Stable – Neutral effect
💡 Strategy Notes:
• Swing Traders: Long bias but RSI near limit
• Breakout Traders: Watch $105K for volume confirmation
• Bulls: Buy-the-dip near $100K or EMA50
📌 Chart shows BTC with EMA 20/50 crossover.
👍 Like & Follow for daily BTC outlooks!
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoAnalysis #BTC #TradingView #RSI #MACD #EMA #VIX #NASDAQ #SwingTrading
What we thing, what’s gonna happen. (120,000)This monthly BTC chart shows a bullish trend aiming for $116,000–$120,000.
• A three-candle bullish pattern is forming, suggesting continued upside.
• The label “SELL HERE, SELL the NEWS” near $120,615 signals a possible profit-taking zone.
• The lower area around $78,000 is marked as a buy-the-dip zone (“Buy the scare again”).
• BTC is currently seeking liquidity to continue its move up, possibly reaching the target by mid next month.
• A major resistance trendline is near, so price reaction there will be key.
BTC (Y25.P2.E5).My levels of interest to LongHi Traders,
Much confluence to long in the 105k range.
The chart is self explanatory.
This is not stating to SHORT. Its stating that if price meets our conditions, then this is an ideal level to long.
FYI. We have much bearish divergence as the longs entered and it gave the whales reason to push it down.
Question is how low is enough. Hence why I have some levels and it could be the case the whales could front run 105k
All the best,
S.SAri
Bitcoin reversal confirmed ?!Bitcoin reversal confirmed ?! 👀
I would like to present you some charts with important levels and relevant patterns.
🖥daily-chart (BITSTAMP) and 💡everything important in the chart 👀
💥Here in the daily chart (BITSTAMP)
- a Deep-Crab harmonic with
- a WolveWave
and the daily-chart of the
🔥Daily MA200 re-test 👀
- gap fill
- support-line 2022 and 2024 TOPs
👉 BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024) 💡
🎯 If you like this idea, please leave me a 🚀 and follow for updates 🔥⏰
Furthermore, any criticism is welcome as well as any suggestions etc. - You're also very welcome to share this idea.
Have a nice evening & successful trading decisions 💪
M_a_d_d_e_n ✌
NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! Without any guarantee & exclusion of liability!
recap - " Bitcoin reversal confirmed ?! "BITCOIN reversal confirmed?! 👀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
How did this idea develop? 🤔
🥇Recap of the idea(s) from March 14, 2025 (see right 👀 under “Related Publications”)🎯
Hello ❤TradingView Community 👋
After the sell-off/correction ended on April 7, 2025' - Bitcoin reached an absolute low of $74434. This was followed by a nice rally and the complete fulfillment of the price targets from the idea of March 14, 2025 (push the play-button 😍).
Everything important is in the chart!
💡 This idea is closed at this point ✔
👉 All targets have been achieved 🎯💪
💥Follow me to stay up to date and be the first to receive these important updates/news & not miss anything! ⏰🔔
Furthermore, any criticism and suggestions etc. are welcome. - Feel free to share this idea.
Have a nice day & happy trading folks 🔥💪
M_a_d_d_e_n ✌
NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! No guarantee & exclusion of liability!
👉 BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024) 💡