BTCUSD Analysis | is 100k the Next Target?🔍 Chart Breakdown:
Price previously formed a range under key resistance at $108,800.
A Triangle Pattern emerged after a sharp rejection from the resistance zone.
The recent breakdown from this pattern signals bearish momentum.
Support Level: $100,513 — Key level to watch for a potential bounce or further breakdown.
📊 Scenarios to Watch:
🔴 Bearish Case (Preferred):
Breakdown continuation below $104,000 could trigger a move toward the $100,500 support.
Clean rejection from triangle breakdown area confirms the bearish structure.
🟢 Bullish Case (Less Likely):
If BTC holds above $104,000 and breaks above the mid-range zone (~$106,500), a retest of $108,800 is possible.
Watch for fakeouts at the top of the range.
💡Trade Ideas:
Short opportunities on breakdown retest or rejection from $106,000–106,500.
Potential long only if $108,800 is broken with strong volume confirmation.
🛑 Risk Management:
Always use stop-loss. Monitor BTC dominance and macro sentiment for confluence.
💬 What do you think? Bearish breakdown or fakeout trap? Let’s discuss below!
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
The influence of high-frequency data on price fluctuationsMajor Datasets for Price Trend Analysis: Types, Sources, and Applications
1. Financial and Market Datasets
Stock and Equity Markets:
Source: Bloomberg Terminal, Yahoo Finance, Alpha Vantage (API), Reuters Eikon.
Data Structure: Time-series data (daily/intraday prices, trading volumes, market capitalization) for stocks, indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ), and commodities (gold, oil).
Use Case: Analyzing stock price trends via technical indicators (MACD, RSI) or fundamental analysis, predicting market volatility using GARCH models.
Cryptocurrency Markets:
Source: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Binance API, Kaiko (professional crypto data).
Data Structure: Real-time or historical price data for cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH), trading pairs, order book depth, and blockchain transaction metrics.
Use Case: Studying price trends in decentralized markets, evaluating correlations with traditional assets, or developing algorithmic trading strategies.
Bitcoin Under Resistance: Neutral Core, Bearish Pressure.⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 4H) – (Date: June 22, 2025).
⟐ Analysis Price: $103,041.65.
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⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (H4):
▦ EMA21 – (Exponential Moving Average 21-Period) – ($103,957.85):
∴ The current price is below the 21EMA, signaling weakness in short-term momentum;
∴ The slope of the moving average is negative, reflecting ongoing downward pressure;
∴ Recent attempts to reclaim the level were rejected, reinforcing its role as dynamic resistance.
✴️ Conclusion: The 21EMA acts as an active intraday resistance, and its breakout is a primary condition for any directional shift.
⊢
▦ EMA50 – (Exponential Moving Average 50-Period) – ($104,101.19):
∴ The 50 EMA remains above the price and the 21EMA, confirming a bearish trend alignment over the mid-term;
∴ The widening gap between EMA's suggests a well-established downward trend;
∴ A reclaim of both EMAs is required to revalidate bullish structure.
✴️ Conclusion: The 50EMA stands as a structural mid-term resistance, whose breakout would mark a tactical trend reversal.
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▦ VPVR – (Volume Profile Visible Range) - (75, Up/Down):
∴ The POC (Point of Control) is concentrated around the $104,000 – $105,000 zone, just above the current price;
∴ This region reflects the highest volume concentration and tends to act as passive resistance or a redistribution zone;
∴ There’s a visible volume gap between $100,000 and $102,000, creating vulnerability to rapid price moves.
✴️ Conclusion: Price remains below institutional interest concentration, limiting upside potential unless volume reclaims the POC zone.
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▦ BB – (Bollinger Bands - 20-Period SMA, 2.0 StdDev):
∴ The previous candle tapped the lower band and triggered a technical buy reaction (mean reversion);
∴ The mid-band aligns precisely with the 50 EMA (~$104,100), reinforcing confluence resistance;
∴ The channel shows slight downward expansion, suggesting volatility may continue to favor bears.
✴️ Conclusion: The recent bounce is technical relief; there is no structural reversal unless the price reclaims the mid-band.
⊢
▦ RSI – (Relative Strength Index) – (41.76):
∴ RSI is recovering from oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50 mark;
∴ The absence of a clear bullish divergence with price weakens the reversal thesis;
∴ RSI resistance lines sit between 45 and 50 – key levels that must be breached to confirm relief.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals technical relief, but still operates within a bearish zone — no clear evidence of dominant buying force yet.
⊢
▦ MACD – (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – (MACD: –135.56 | Signal: –539.84):
∴ MACD line is crossing the signal line from below, generating an early bullish reversal signal;
∴ The histogram is contracting on the negative side, showing seller exhaustion;
∴ Readings remain deep in negative territory, requiring further confirmation.
✴️ Conclusion: MACD hints at momentum reversal, though structural validation requires a return to the positive zone.
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▦ VOL – (Volume Bars):
∴ Volume increased significantly during the recent bounce, indicating reactive buyer demand;
∴ However, follow-through volume was not sustained — warning of potential bull trap;
∴ The absence of consistent volume undermines the durability of the bounce.
✴️ Conclusion: Volume shows reactive presence, but lacks sustained confirmation — recovery may be short-lived.
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🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ Bitcoin on the 4H chart is staging a relief move after recent sell-side pressure, yet remains below all key EMAs, under volume-based resistance, and without confirmation from momentum indicators.
∴ The structure is best defined as technical relief, not a confirmed trend reversal.
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∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant & BGeometrics):
▦ Exchange Inflow Total - (All Exchanges) = (Latest Spike Zone ~103K):
∴ A recent uptick in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges is visible at local price levels, aligning with prior rejection zones;
∴ Increased inflows suggest potential intent to distribute, especially at resistance;
∴ Historically, such inflow patterns precede local price weakness or continuation of retracement.
✴️ Conclusion: Exchange inflow data warns of potential short-term sell pressure, supporting a cautious outlook near current levels.
⊢
▦ Funding Rate – (Binance Perpetual) – (Near Neutral to Slightly Positive):
∴ Current funding rates remain slightly positive but balanced, reflecting lack of directional conviction from leveraged traders;
∴ The absence of aggressive long bias reduces the risk of long squeezes but also suggests weak bullish momentum;
∴ Historically, neutral funding rates precede volatile expansions when followed by imbalances.
✴️ Conclusion: Funding rate indicates a neutral sentiment posture - not bearish, but lacking speculative bullish fuel.
⊢
▦ Open Interest – (All Exchanges) – (~$33.2B):
∴ Open Interest is elevated, marking one of the highest levels since April;
∴ The price is falling while OI remains high - a classic divergence signaling potential liquidation risk;
∴ This setup increases volatility probability and indicates the market is loaded with directional exposure.
✴️ Conclusion: Open Interest suggests a high-risk environment; either a cascade of liquidation or a sharp reversal is imminent.
⊢
▦ Realized Price – (Market: $103K | Realized: ~$47.5K):
∴ The gap between market price and realized price is vast, reflecting that most market participants are sitting on large unrealized gains;
∴ This positioning exposes the market to profit-taking impulses;
∴ The lack of compression between these metrics implies no capitulation is underway.
✴️ Conclusion: Market remains well above realized cost basis, implying latent sell-side risk and no evidence of fear-driven exits.
⊢
▦ UTXO Age Bands – (Realized Price by Age = 6m–3y clusters above $90K):
∴ Long-term holders (6m–3y) maintain positions well in profit, with realized values near or above $90K;
∴ No major movement from these cohorts detected — suggesting continued conviction or strategic dormancy;
∴ Younger UTXO bands are positioned lower, indicating recent accumulation remains underwater.
✴️ Conclusion: No signs of distribution from experienced holders — current structure favors hodler passivity, not capitulation.
⊢
▦ Miner Outflows – (Miner Transfer Volume Stable):
∴ Miner outflows remain stable, with no sharp spikes in transfers to exchanges;
∴ Implies no immediate operational selling pressure from mining entities;
∴ Miner behavior remains conservative, awaiting directional confirmation.
✴️ Conclusion: Miners are currently not a source of sell pressure, reinforcing structural equilibrium in supply flow.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle:
∴ The on-chain structure supports a technically vulnerable, yet fundamentally intact market; ∴ ∴ Exchange inflows and high Open Interest signal short-term caution, while the lack of miner selling, stable long-term holder behavior, and distance from realized price all point to no deep structural breakdown;
∴ Expect heightened volatility with directional resolution dependent on external catalysts or spot-driven pressure.
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ Temporal framework reveals local reactive strength, but lacks structural realignment;
∴ On-chain flow warns of directional tension - neither resolve nor breakdown confirmed;
∴ Macro environment holds liquidity in suspension, awaiting a trigger;
∴ All vectors align under strategic ambiguity - stillness is not stasis, but anticipation.
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𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
▦ Structurally Neutral:
∴ The broader structure is intact - no systemic breakdown, yet no resumption of trend authority;
∴ Exchange inflows and high OI generate latent fragility, despite holder and miner resilience;
∴ The system holds - but without forward thrust, the architecture is stable, not ascendant.
⊢
▦ Tactically Cautious:
∴ Technical signals show reaction, not reversal - EMA's remain unbroken, volume is passive, RSI is capped;
∴ On-chain risk (inflows, OI) outpaces confirmation of strength;
∴ Action without structure is speculation - the trader must remain coiled, not extended.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm (𝟙⟠) – Vox Primordialis!
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
Bitcoin Trend AnalysisBITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD
BTCUSD trend shows multiple bearish indications.
- Monthly RSI bearish divergence. This is the 3rd monthly bearish divergence in the entire BTC history. The previous one was the ATH before the 2022 recession. BTC price dropped 70% in 2022.
- Weekly RSI downtrend.
- Weekly MACD downtrend.
- Weekly bearish momentum red candles and downtrend wicks.
If the history repeats itself and BTC drops 70% like in 2022, it will find its final support around 31,500, but we don't know for sure yet. Before that, a few key levels of support needs to be penetrated. 75,000 is a major support we need to watch for.
BTC Inverse H&S Still on TrackWe have tracked this Inverse head and shoulders since first testing the all times highs. We expected another test of ATH to start the next correction leg down. We are not tracking a trip back to $92,000-$89,000 to set up a major H&S pattern that should initiate our next impulse to $150,000-$180,000 to mark the end of the bull market. Lets see how June 2025 monthly candle closes.
Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar 2-Hour Chart (BTCUSD)2-hour chart displays the recent price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD), showing a current price of $102,459.21 with a decline of $853.19 (-0.83%) over the period. The chart highlights a significant drop from a peak near $105,898.45, with a shaded area indicating a potential support zone between $101,682.19 and $99,732.49, and a resistance level around $103,000. The timeframe spans from 9:00 to 29:00, with technical indicators and price levels marked for analysis.
Bitcoin Dip Coming Soon1. Historical Example (Left Side of the Chart - around 2021-2022):
"NFT" Label at the Top: The trader has labeled a peak around late 2021 with "NFT." This likely signifies a period of market euphoria or a local top, possibly correlated with a peak in NFT hype.
Failure to Make New Highs / Bearish Structure: After this peak, the price action shows lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend.
Break of Support: The price broke down from a previous support area.
Targeting Previous Demand: The arrow points down towards a shaded maroon box. This box represents a significant area of previous demand/support FVG (roughly $15,000 - $30,000 in this hypothetical chart) where buyers previously stepped in, or where price consolidated before a major move up. The expectation was that price would revisit this significant prior zone.
2. Current/Projected Scenario (Right Side of the Chart - 2025 onwards):
"NFT" Label at the Current Top: Again, an "NFT" label is placed near the recent high (around
105,000 − 105,000− 110,000 in this chart). This suggests the market is again at a euphoric peak or a significant local top.
Potential Double Top / Rejection: The price has made a significant high and seems to be struggling to push further, showing signs of rejection (as indicated by the recent candles with upper wicks and a potential downturn). This could be forming a double top or a lower high relative to the absolute peak.
Two-Stage Short Target:
First Target (Short Arrow): The shorter arrow points down to a horizontal line around the $75,000 - $80,000 level. This is likely a near-term support level, perhaps a previous swing low or an area of recent consolidation. A break below the current highs might lead to a test of this level.
Second, Larger Target (Long Arrow): The longer arrow points down to a much larger shaded maroon box. This box (roughly $30,000 - $40,000 in this chart) represents a significant, longer-term demand/support zone. This zone was a major area of consolidation or previous resistance that turned into support before the most recent leg up to the $100k+ levels.
Rationale for the Deeper Target: If the near-term support (around 75k−75k−80k) fails to hold, the trader expects a more significant correction.
BITCOIN Getting Ready For The 1hr Bounce.Alright ladies and gentlemen, bears 1hr tf party almost completed.
Vertical blue line is where it ends and Bulls take over again, so whatever price drops when it reaches that vertical blue line (if not sooner) that will be it and will start bouncing.
Now, if the bounce starts from a point too low (near $100k ) and doesn't breaks above $107k again then brace for a hard landing next week cause bulls are getting weaker and weaker on every drop and if this pattern continues then we will see numbers below $100k by next week.
It is very important for price to end this week candle above $109k .
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, we are heading for a rough end of week.
Best areas to enter for next bounce are below $102500 with liquidation point below $100k with low lev recommended. Use lev wisely.
Know the rules of the game....play it right. Have a nice trading day.
Bitcoin vs Global M2: The 90-Day Liquidity LagComparing Bitcoin’s price action to the Global M2 Money Supply with a 90-day offset reveals potential macro-driven trends. As liquidity expands or contracts globally, Bitcoin often reacts with a delay. This chart aims to visualize the relationship between monetary expansion and BTC price movement, helping spot broader cycle shifts and long-term momentum.
Bitcoin Bullish Pennant(D)Bitcoin is forming a bullish pennant on the daily timeframe. A classic continuation pattern following strong upward momentum. A breakout above the resistance trendline could signal the next leg up. Watching closely for volume confirmation and a potential retest before continuation. Bullish bias remains intact as long as support holds.
Altseason AnalysisTo determine whether we're approaching a true Altseason, we're analyzing the macro relationship between Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and Total 2 (the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin). This comparison has consistently revealed where capital is flowing and helps signal shifts in market cycles.
Current Market Structure
BTC Dominance: Currently at 64% and testing resistance zone.
A breakdown below 57% could trigger fresh capital rotation into alts.
Total 2: Hovering near 1.2T ; watching for breakout confirmation.
What Triggers an Altseason?
BTC stability or slow upward grind: Altcoins thrive when Bitcoin is stable not crashing, not parabolic.
BTC.D Breakdown: Often the first real signal. Look for confluence with Total 2 breakout.
Capital Rotation: Watch Ethereum and majors big cap — they usually lead before microcaps follow.
BTC.D Breakdown: Often the first real signal. Look for confluence with Total 2 breakout.
$5 Trillion??
Breakout above $1.7T ATH in Total 2 opens the door for exponential price discovery.
Key resistance zones: $2T → $3.5T → $5T
Watch for volume surge + BTC.D breakdown for strong confirmation.
Caution:
Not every BTC.D dip leads to an Altseason fakeouts happen. Confirm with Total 2 strength and sector rotation.
Cycle Last LegThis present cycle is near its end. Pico top will arrive soon, probably by the end of November. BTC is currently ranging (103-109) forming a new base at 106, which is the current point of control. The start of the next and final up leg should start early July, so we have less than 2 weeks to remain patient.
Stand fast. Keep faith. Remain vigilant.
Bitcoin downside all but confirmed, sub 100k next- follow up analysis on this one:
- with the original analysis posted in late May, more than a month later and Bitcoin is still struggling near ATH levels
- with weekly bearish divergence now confirmed, odds of a downside move are very high
- Iran v Israel conflict acting as a strong headwind for all markets, should the USA get involved I expect that effect to increase tenfold
Needs to be said that a pullback to 90 or even the mid 80k region would still constitute a higher low on the very large time-frames. Structurally wise, as long as BTC is above 75k, the macro trend is still one of a bull nature.
Short-Term BTC Short Setup Bitcoin is currently showing signs of completing a corrective wave (4) in a potential Elliott Wave structure. The current rising wedge (ABCDE) pattern suggests a likely short-term breakdown toward the $101,000–$100,000 support zone. This short position aligns with the ongoing short-term bearish momentum (wave 5 expected), but within a broader bullish trend. Long-term outlook remains positive, with the potential for a strong continuation upward once the correction is complete. ;D
BTCUSD: Trading Signal From Our Team
BTCUSD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long BTCUSD
Entry - 10334
Sl - 10158
Tp - 10626
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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