BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTC/USDI've been calling for a crash for a while.
The closer to the top you are, the more hatred that you'll get for calling one.
It's a difficult position being contrary to the crowd. I think that's why Peter denied Jesus.
In any case, positive sentiment must end and as overdue as it is, I'm expecting a bang, after a final wave of FOMO.
Macromics Group: Market Trends Overview (June 2025)Global Economic Landscape: What Has Changed?
June 2025 marks significant shifts in the global economy. After several years of instability caused by the pandemic, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, markets are gradually stabilizing. However, new challenges are emerging: rising risks in Asia, digital transformation in Europe, and strategy shifts in the U.S.
China and India continue to show strong growth rates—5.8% and 6.5% respectively. Europe, by contrast, is lagging behind due to slow recovery and persistent inflation. The U.S. maintains a steady course driven by consumer spending and innovation, reporting 2.1% GDP growth.
Macromics Group continues to deliver in-depth analytics and strategies for clients seeking to understand and capitalize on these changes. We analyze trends across more than 120 industries, helping companies adapt and thrive.
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: A Shift Toward Stabilization
Financial regulators have begun cautiously lowering interest rates after the peaks of 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve has dropped its rate to 4.5%, while the ECB has reduced its rate to 3.75%. This is made possible by a decline in inflation: 2.7% in the U.S. and 3.1% in the EU.
Meanwhile, developing nations like Turkey and Argentina are still grappling with high inflation. These countries risk falling behind the global recovery unless decisive steps are taken.
Overall, the global course is toward soft stabilization: interest rates remain high but steady. This creates favorable conditions for investment and long-term planning.
Financial Markets: From Caution to Moderate Optimism
Stock markets in June 2025 show mixed performance. U.S. indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, thanks to the booming tech sector. Stocks of companies involved in AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity are particularly strong.
European markets are less active but relatively stable. Growth is limited by high costs, demographic issues, and the transition to ESG standards. In Russia and CIS countries, markets are under pressure due to sanctions, currency restrictions, and reduced investment.
On the currency front, the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan dominate. The ruble is volatile, the euro is stable, and the yen is strengthening as a safe haven asset.
Technology: The Engine of New Markets
The main trend in 2025 is AI and automation. Companies are deploying neural networks in logistics, marketing, finance, and HR to cut costs and boost efficiency. Demand for AI professionals and developers is surging.
5G infrastructure has matured in most developed countries, unlocking new potential in IoT, telemedicine, and remote work. At the same time, quantum computing is advancing rapidly, with commercial solutions expected by 2026.
Macromics Group invests in next-generation analytical platforms, enabling clients to access real-time insights and forecast trends before they go mainstream.
Energy and Sustainability: ESG and the “Green” Shift
Energy markets have stabilized after the turbulence of 2024. Oil prices remain between $70–$85 per barrel—comfortable for both producers and consumers. Meanwhile, renewable energy—solar, wind, and hydrogen—is seeing record investment.
Corporations are increasingly reporting according to ESG standards. It’s not just a trend, but a new business reality. Investors demand transparency, consumers prefer socially responsible brands, and regulators impose mandatory reporting.
Macromics Group supports clients in transitioning to sustainable models by developing ESG strategies, assessing risks, and offering financial solutions.
Conclusion: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
The first half of 2025 showed that markets are learning to operate in a new reality. The global economy is no longer chasing rapid growth, but adapting to volatility. Key focus areas are technology, sustainability, and smart resource management.
For businesses, this means quick adaptation, innovative thinking, and reliance on data-driven decisions. In this context, Macromics Group serves not just as an analyst but as a strategic partner.
Our recommendation: act proactively. In times of uncertainty, those who plan years ahead and use quality data will win.
Automated Trading with Pine ScriptIn the digital age, trading is gradually shifting from manual analysis to automated solutions. A key player in this process is Pine Script — a programming language developed for the TradingView platform, enabling users to create custom indicators, strategies, and automated signals. Its simplicity and powerful capabilities have made it especially popular among retail traders.
What is Pine Script?
Pine Script is a language developed by the TradingView team specifically for financial market analysis. Unlike general-purpose languages like Python or C++, Pine Script is designed for tasks related to technical analysis and trading automation.
It is used for:
Creating custom indicators;
Writing trading strategies;
Visualizing data on charts;
Setting up trading alerts (notifications).
Why Automate Trading?
Automated trading eliminates the human factor, which is crucial in volatile markets. Key advantages include:
Speed of reaction — the algorithm reacts instantly to signals.
Discipline — automated strategies do not succumb to emotions.
Scalability — one strategy can be applied to dozens of instruments.
Historical analysis — the ability to test ideas on past data (backtesting).
Structure of a Pine Script
Every script starts with a version declaration and the type of tool being created:
pinescript
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//@version=5
indicator("Sample Indicator", overlay=true)
@version=5 — Pine Script version.
indicator(...) — indicates that the script is an indicator.
overlay=true — places graphics over the price chart.
For strategies, the strategy keyword is used:
pinescript
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strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true)
Example of a Simple Automated Strategy
Let’s build a script that generates buy and sell signals based on the crossover of two moving averages:
pinescript
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//@version=5
strategy("MA Strategy", overlay=true)
fastMA = ta.sma(close, 9)
slowMA = ta.sma(close, 21)
longCondition = ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA)
shortCondition = ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA)
if longCondition
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)
if shortCondition
strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short)
plot(fastMA, color=color.green)
plot(slowMA, color=color.red)
This code:
Opens a long position when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA.
Opens a short position when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA.
Strategy Backtesting
TradingView automatically runs a backtest on historical data. In the Strategy Tester tab, users get:
total number of trades;
average profit;
win rate;
maximum drawdown;
risk/reward ratio.
This is a vital tool to evaluate the effectiveness of a strategy before deploying it in live trading.
Adding Stop Loss and Take Profit
To manage risk, strategies can include loss and profit limits:
pinescript
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strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)
strategy.exit("Exit Buy", from_entry="Buy", stop=100, limit=200)
stop=100 — stop loss at 100 points.
limit=200 — take profit at 200 points.
This enhances both automation and risk control in the trading process.
Setting Up Alerts
While Pine Script cannot place real trades by itself, it can generate alert signals, which can be linked to external systems or brokers.
pinescript
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alertcondition(longCondition, title="Buy Signal", message="Buy signal")
alertcondition(shortCondition, title="Sell Signal", message="Sell signal")
After adding these conditions to the chart, users can set up alerts that arrive via email, mobile notifications, or webhooks—useful for integration with bots or APIs.
Automated Trading via API
For full automation (from signal to trade execution), Pine Script is often used in conjunction with other technologies:
Webhook — TradingView sends an HTTP request when an alert triggers.
Server or bot — receives and processes the request, then sends an order to the broker.
Broker’s API — executes the order (open, close, modify positions).
Examples of brokers with API access: Binance, Bybit, Interactive Brokers, Alpaca, MetaTrader (via third-party bridges).
Tips for Writing Trading Strategies
Start simple. Use just 1–2 indicators.
Avoid overfitting. Don’t tailor your strategy too closely to past data.
Test on different timeframes. Ensure strategy stability.
Account for fees and slippage. Especially important on lower timeframes.
Add filters. For example, trend direction, volume, or volatility conditions.
Pine Script Limitations
While powerful and beginner-friendly, Pine Script has some limitations:
No tick-by-tick data access. Scripts execute on bar close.
Resource limits. Limits on script length and processing power.
No direct trade execution. Only possible via external integration or supported brokers.
Conclusion
Pine Script is an excellent tool for traders who want to automate their trading ideas. It allows you to create, test, and visualize strategies—even with minimal programming knowledge. While it’s not a full-fledged programming language, its capabilities are more than sufficient for most retail trading needs. With Pine Script, traders can improve efficiency, consistency, and reduce the emotional impact of trading decisions.
BTC climbs the stairsFrom the bear market lows(red) we entered into consolidation phase(white) in 2023 and in october 2023 the bull market was ignited(green). Since then BTC has climbed these ~50% steps up and right now we are at the verge of entering the last 50% step up of this bull phase taking us up to 160k. Are we going to see the last step up on upcoming months or are we going to see a rejection and keep consolidating inside the current box?
If we compare the previous two steps up(green arrow) to the current situation, the set up is a little bit different now than before. Previously, BTC has practically blasted through the box resistance without hesitation but now we have spent more time just underneath the box resistance with two failed attemps(3D) of breaking the resistance. Also, what concerns me, is the fact that during this cycle the summer months june-july(marked inside the box) has not been strong for BTC and we have witnessed MACD forming bearish divergences during these months due to a rejection from the highs towards the bottom of the box. This very thing is happening again and if confirmed, no new ATHs for this summer. Of course, a solid strong candle close above the resistance clarifies the future and set us on our way to 160k.
Bitcoin Consolidates Near Highs — Bullish Wedge Signals StrengthHolding Strong Amid Uncertainty:
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading near recent highs. This stability reflects strong institutional confidence and sustained accumulation by long-term holders.
Bullish Technical Setup:
The ongoing consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000 is forming a wedge pattern—a classic bullish continuation structure. This suggests the market is coiling for its next major move.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: $112,500
Support Zone: Holding above $100,000 keeps the bullish case intact
Measured Move Target: $130,000–$135,000
Outlook:
This tight consolidation signals a healthy pause in a strong uptrend, positioning Bitcoin for a potential breakout and continuation higher. All signs point to the bulls remaining firmly in control.
#Bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishWedge #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalBuying #PriceAction #Geopolitics #SupportAndResistance #BullRun
₿itcoin: Continuing B WaveBitcoin has recently reclaimed the key $106,000 level. Under our primary scenario, we anticipate continued increases into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891 – where green wave B is expected to conclude. From that corrective peak, we project a significant move lower in wave C, which should ultimately pull prices into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. This range is expected to mark the completion of orange wave a. We then foresee a brief corrective rally before wave (ii) completes its broader correction with a final sell-off.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
#4162025 | BTCUSD Supply Zone 1:10BTCUSD Supply Zone Appears in D1 Time Frame Looking Price Action for Long Term Sell
Risk and Reward Ratio is 1:10
After 50 pips Profit Set SL Entry Level
"DISCLAIMER" Trading & investing business is "Very Profitable" as well as risky, so any trading or investment decision should be made after Consultation with Certified & Regulated Investment Advisors, by Carefully Considering your Financial Situation.
BTCUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for BTCUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 10537
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 10693
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Weekly trading plan for Bitcoin In this idea I marked the important levels for this week and considered a few scenarios of price performance
Write a comment with your coins & hit the like button and I will make an analysis for you
The author's opinion may differ from yours,
Consider your risks.
Wish you successful trades ! mura
BTC/USD.4H CHART PATTERN.> Buy at 106,800
Resistance at 105,700
But resistance should be above the current price, not below. If 105,700 is below 106,800, it would typically be support, not resistance.
Corrected Interpretation:
Here's how your setup likely looks:
Buy Entry: 106,800
Support (not resistance): 105,700
Target 1: 110,000
Target 2: 112,000
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Strategy Summary:
Level Type
105,700 Support (Stop-loss zone)
106,800 Entry
110,000 Target 1
112,000 Target 2
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Trade Notes:
If BTC holds above 105,700, your long position is technically supported.
A break below 105,700 might invalidate the bullish setup — consider a stop-loss below that.
Momentum toward 110K–112K is possible if the market breaks out of short-term consolidation or reacts positively to macro news.
Would you like a chart or confirmation based on technical indicators (RSI, trendlines, volume, etc.)?
6/16/2025 3:33 AM PST - ChatGPTBTC/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – June 16, 2025 – 06:25 UTC-4
Exchange: Bitstamp | Current Price: $107,149
Trend: Short-term recovery from previous dump; nearing local resistance zone
Market Context: Rebound after consolidation below $106K; price testing $107.3K ceiling
📈 Technical Indicator Summary
1. RSI (14)
RSI: 67.40, close to overbought zone
Signal line: 69.48
➡️ Strong bullish momentum, but approaching exhaustion; potential pullback or consolidation soon
2. MACD (12,26,9)
MACD line > Signal line — bullish crossover confirmed
Histogram green and above 0, but flattening
➡️ Positive momentum remains, but bullish strength is fading
3. Volume
Volume increasing during upswings, declining during sideways phases
➡️ Accumulation confirmed; buyers were stepping in under $106K
4. Structure / Key Levels
🔻 Support Zones:
$106,600: Minor local support
$105,775 – $105,341: Consolidation demand zone
$105,000: Psychological & historical support
🔺 Resistance Zones:
$107,149: Current price, testing key resistance
$107,350 – $107,589: Major overhead barrier
Breakout could target: $108,000+
🎯 Trade Scenarios (Next 24 Hours)
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above $107,350
Conditions:
RSI stays above 60
MACD remains bullish
Price closes above $107,350 with volume spike
Entry:
📈 Buy breakout above $107,350
🎯 TP1: $107,750
🎯 TP2: $108,400
🛑 SL: $106,750 (below most recent higher low)
❌ Scenario 2: Rejection and Pullback from Resistance
Conditions:
RSI breaks below 60
MACD begins to turn down (bearish crossover)
Price fails to hold $107,149 and closes below $106,600
Entry:
📉 Sell on rejection from $107,350 + bearish divergence
🎯 TP1: $106,200
🎯 TP2: $105,800
🛑 SL: $107,550
📊 Probability Forecast (Next 24 Hours)
Scenario Probability Rationale
✅ Bullish Breakout 70% - Clean higher low structure
MACD + RSI strong
Testing resistance repeatedly = buildup for breakout |
| ❌ Pullback / Rejection | 30% | - RSI nearing overbought
Resistance near $107.6–107.8K is heavy
Possible fakeout if no volume follows |
🧠 Strategic Insight:
Momentum favors bulls, but resistance is thick between $107.3K and $107.6K.
Favor breakout entries on confirmation — not pre-break bets.
Watch RSI/MACD divergences closely.
Trading Recommendations for the BTC/USDU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday that USD-backed stable coins could reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion or more. His remarks indicate growing governmental interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly stable coins, as a potentially vital component of the future financial system. Bessent emphasized that with proper regulation, stable coins could enhance payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and expand access to financial services for millions of people.
He also noted that stable coins could help broaden the global use of the U.S. dollar and that congress is advancing legislation requiring such coins to be backed by high-quality assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
It's worth noting the U.S. Senate yesterday voted 68 to 30 to pass the Stable coin Regulation Act, bringing it closer to final approval. If enacted, the legislation could lead to a 10x increase in stable coin supply over the next for years - up to $2 trillion. As a result, stable coin issuers may acquire up to $1.6 trillion in U.S. government bonds for their reserves.
As for the medium-term strategy , I will continue to capitalize on deep pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating continuing the broader bullish market trend.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario 1: Buy Bitcoin today on a break above $108,1000, with a target of $108,700. Exit the buy position near $108,700 and open a short on the pullback. Before buying, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.
Scenario 2: Buy from the lower boundary of $107,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, aiming for a reversal back to $108,100 and $108,700.
Sell Scenario
Scenario 1: Sell Bitcoin today from $107,500, targeting $106,800. Exit shorts at $106,800 and consider buying on the bounce. Confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.
Scenario 2: Sell from the upper boundary at $108,100 if there is no follow-through breakout, targeting $107.500 and $106,800.
Bitcoin (BTC)and NASDAQ: Intermarket Analysis and the Road AheadIn this four-hour BTCUSD chart, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern ⏳. The price is oscillating between a series of lower highs and higher lows, with the most recent swing high and swing low serving as key reference points for traders. This pattern reflects a market in indecision, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout.
Volume has picked up as price approaches the previous low, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to defend this area, rather than capitulating.
The next significant move will likely be determined by whether price can break above the last swing high or fall below the last swing low. A breakout above the previous high could open the door for a renewed uptrend, while a breakdown below the previous low may signal a deeper correction.
Geopolitical & Fundamental Backdrop 🌍
Bitcoin’s current consolidation is happening against a backdrop of heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Recent global events, such as tensions in the Middle East and shifting US economic data, have contributed to increased volatility across risk assets. Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, and the asset continues to be viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, short-term sentiment is sensitive to headlines and policy shifts.
NASDAQ & Correlation with Bitcoin 📈
The NASDAQ and Bitcoin remain closely correlated, especially during periods of heightened risk-on or risk-off sentiment. The NASDAQ has recently been consolidating after a strong rally, with price action also defined by a series of lower highs and higher lows. The index’s outlook is currently neutral to cautiously bullish, mirroring Bitcoin’s technical structure. If the NASDAQ can break above its recent high, it could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, a move below the last swing low in equities could trigger further caution in crypto markets.
Summary & Outlook 🚦
BTCUSD is at a pivotal juncture, with the next move likely to be determined by a break above the previous high or below the previous low on the four-hour chart.
Macro and geopolitical factors are creating short-term volatility, but the long-term structure remains constructive as long as the broader uptrend of higher lows is maintained.
The NASDAQ’s consolidation and its correlation with Bitcoin suggest that risk sentiment in equities will continue to influence crypto. Watch for confirmation from both markets before taking a directional bias.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and stock markets are highly volatile and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetupBTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout Setup 🔄🚀
Technical Analysis Overview:
🔹 Pattern Formation:
The chart displays a potential Triple Bottom pattern (🟠), a classic reversal signal forming at the $104,870–$100,000 support zone 🛡️. This structure suggests a strong base is being established for a potential upside move.
🔹 Support Zone:
📉 The price has consistently bounced off the major support area around $100,000–$104,870, indicating strong buying interest.
🔹 Resistance Zone:
📊 The key resistance level lies around the $114,000–$115,000 range 🔵, which has been tested multiple times in the past (🔴 arrows) and could act as a future profit target.
🔹 Price Action & Projection:
Currently, price is trading near $107,025 and is showing signs of bullish continuation after forming a higher low. If the price consolidates above the $104,870 zone and holds support, we could see a potential breakout targeting the $114,000 resistance 📈.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Triple Bottom formation signals trend reversal.
🔄 Bullish structure confirmed above $104,870.
🎯 Next target: $114,000 if breakout holds.
⚠️ Watch for potential consolidation before continuation.
BTC RANGE-BOUNDBitcoin is once again pressing against the midpoint of its recent trading range after bouncing off the 50-day moving average near $105,000. Today’s candle shows solid follow-through from that bounce, reclaiming short-term structure and closing back above the key $105,787 level.
The broader structure remains a consolidation between $100,700 support and $112,000 resistance – with Bitcoin repeatedly testing both boundaries without breaking out. The most recent rejection at $112K marked the second failed attempt to clear that level, suggesting the presence of strong supply overhead. However, the continued defense of $105K and especially the higher low at $100,700 keeps the bullish structure intact for now.
The 50-day moving average has now been tagged multiple times and held as dynamic support, reinforcing its relevance in this trend. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA remains well below at $95K, and continues to slope upward, confirming broader trend health.
Volume remains relatively light during this bounce, which could be a cautionary signal for bulls hoping to see a breakout attempt. A move above $108K–$110K would likely re-ignite momentum toward the $112K top of range, while a clean break above $112K would open the door to a measured move toward $120K.
To the downside, the $100,700–$101,000 area is the line in the sand. A break below that level would invalidate the current higher low structure and put the $92,800 and $88,800 zones back in play as support.
In short, Bitcoin is still range-bound, but technically healthy. The bulls are defending key support levels and the 50 MA, while bears remain active at resistance. The next directional break – above $112K or below $100K – will likely dictate the next major move.