BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTCUSD SMC Short | 70.5% Fib + OB Rejection Incoming?BTCUSD | High Risk-Reward Setup at Key Supply Zone 🔥
This Bitcoin setup is setting up for a potential clean short opportunity, right from a key Order Block zone confluenced with 61.8–70.5% Fib retracement and a Strong High liquidity magnet above.
🧠 1. Why This Trade Setup is 🔥
This BTCUSD chart shows Smart Money preparing a trap:
🔺 Impulse down ➝ forming market structure shift
📉 Retracement back to a refined OB (purple zone)
📍 Aligned perfectly with:
✅ 61.8–70.5% Fib retracement zone
✅ Strong High = liquidity trap
✅ Bearish engulfing rejection from supply zone
This is textbook SMC confluence. Price could sweep the high one more time, then tank hard.
📌 2. Zone Breakdown
OB Entry Zone (purple): ~108,000 to 108,400
SL Above Strong High: ~109,000
TP at Weak Low: ~104,600
✅ Entry around 108,000
✅ RRR: ~1:5 👑
📈 3. Market Structure
HTF Bias: Bearish
LTF Structure: Retracing to premium zone
Expecting BOS downward if rejection confirms
⚙️ 4. Trade Plan
Wait for price to tap 61.8–70.5% zone
Look for M5/M15 bearish structure break
Enter on pullback to M15 OB
SL = Above the High
TP = Weak Low (104,630)
🛑 5. Risk Management Tips
Never enter blindly at 61.8%
Always wait for confirmation on LTF (M5/M15)
If price blows past 70.5%, let it go — don’t chase 🧘
🧠 Save this trade plan
📈 Comment “BTC SMC ENTRY” if you caught this
👀 Follow for more Smart Money chart breakdowns
Bitcoin's at ALL TIME HIGHS and I'm going ALL IN!!As Bitcoin surges to new all-time highs, I've made a pivotal decision: to stop saving in dollars and start holding Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin? Self-Custody:
Owning Bitcoin means true ownership. With self-custody, I control my private keys, ensuring my wealth isn't subject to third-party risks like bank failures or government seizures.
Declining Dollar Value: The U.S. dollar continues to depreciate due to inflation and economic policies. Holding Bitcoin, a deflationary asset, offers a hedge against this erosion of purchasing power.
Global Accessibility: Bitcoin transcends borders, providing financial inclusion for anyone with internet access, especially in regions with unstable currencies.
Security and Privacy: With proper self-custody practices, my Bitcoin holdings are secure from hacks and offer enhanced privacy compared to traditional financial systems.
As I monitor the BTC/USD daily chart, the trend is clear: Bitcoin isn't just a speculative asset; it's a movement towards financial sovereignty.
BTCUSD Possibly Breaking Trend Looking like its breaking out of daily trend.
Wait for a green candle close out of trend (maybe a few days)
Look for a retest of daily down trend line and take a possible sell based off of that.
From then possible massive drop down to around £88,879 (60%fibb and on a weekly untested hold lvl)
BTC LONG TP:110,000 29-05-2025📈 TradingView Post:
🚀 LONG Setup Activated
Entry between 105,400 and 106,000, targeting 109,500–110,500 on the 2H timeframe.
Estimated duration: 30 hours ⏳
We’re looking at a fake Head and Shoulders — a trap setup with bullish reversal potential.
This kind of move shakes weak hands before launching.
If the price doesn’t play out within the timeframe, the setup is invalid.
We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
#BTC #PriceAction #Reydragon21
2 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT POSSIBLE... WHICH ONE IS GONNA BE I’m closely tracking two key resistance levels that could be the trigger point for the next big breakout in crypto:
Resistance 1: $94,000
Resistance 2: $104,000
Right now, the market is showing strong momentum and coiling up near these zones. These resistance levels act like "ceiling prices" — once broken, they often signal powerful upward moves as traders pile in.
📊 So, Which Level Is the Real Breakout Trigger?
Let’s break it down:
🔸 $104K — The Early Signal
This is the closer and more immediate resistance.
A breakout here could trigger a short-term rally, likely inviting aggressive buyers.
But beware: it might still be a fakeout if volume doesn’t support it.
🔸 $94K — The Confirmed Breakout
This is the major resistance, likely watched by institutional traders.
A clean breakout At the $94K with volume would be a strong confirmation of a broader bullish trend.
This level breaking could ignite the real FOMO wave across the market.
Golden Cross? No Thanks!! Here’s How to Get In Early.📉 “Golden Cross? No Thanks. Here’s How to Get In Early.”
By FXProfessor
Everyone’s hyped about the Golden Cross again...
📰 “Bullish Signal!”
📈 “50 SMA crossed the 200!”
🎉 “Party time!”
Let me stop you right there.
If you’re waiting for that cross to go long —
You’re not late.
You’re definitely late.
The Golden Cross is a lagging indication.
It’s the afterparty. The smart money already had the drinks and left.
🔍 Here's the deal:
✅ Golden Cross forms after the move
✅ Price is usually already up double digits
✅ Sometimes it triggers right before a top
✅ Even EMAs (which I prefer) are still confirmation tools
✅ The real edge? Structure. Trendlines. Pressure zones.
📊 What I use instead:
-Custom EMAs that react faster
-My signature parallelogram method for early pressure
-Focus on trendlines and structure
-Above all — logic, not hype
- Fundamentals first!
For example, while the Golden Cross just printed, I was already watching $74,394 and $79,000.
Why? Because pressure builds before indicators react.
That's where the best entries live.
So next time someone posts
“Golden Cross confirmed!” 😏 Just smile and remember:
By the time the cross lights up, I’m already halfway to the next target.
Use EMAs if you like. But structure comes first.
That’s where the party starts.
One Love,
The FXProfessor 🧠📈
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome people who care about the TRADER FIRST!
Will BTC hold its price?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC. When we enter the four-hour interval, we can see how the BTC price has left the ongoing upward trend line at the bottom, and what's more, we can see how the current movement is creating a local downward trend channel in which the price is currently on the border of the previously created upward trend channel, which gives a strong support point.
Here we can see how the current downward movement has entered the support circle that starts around $ 104,800 and ends around $ 102,200, this is the place where two conflicting channels have converged. If these supports do not hold the price, we can see a quick recovery to around $ 98,000, and then to the level of $ 93,900.
Looking the other way, we can see that when the trend reverses, we first have resistance at $107,670, then a resistance zone from $110,000 to $111,700 is visible, at the border of two channels, and then resistance is visible around $113,800.
On the MACD indicator, we can see a return to the downtrend, while on the RSI we return to the lower part at the lower border, which could potentially provide energy for a future upward movement.
BTCUSD: Neutral on 1D means buy opportunity during rallies.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.351, MACD = 2908.600, ADX = 27.535) which is far from alarming as during Bull Cycle rallies such pullbacks are buy opportunities. Especially now that the price is even supported by the 1D MA50, which having cross above the 1D MA200 last week, they formed a Golden Cross. The pattern is identical to the last 1D Golden Cross, steady rally phases supported by HL trendlines that rose by roughly the same percentage. Their 1D RSI sequences also display similar formations. For that reason, we remain bullish on Bitcoin despite the current correction, targeting short term 119,000.
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BITCOIN - MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE THIS LEVEL WILL CONFIRM A BREAKOUTIf Bitcoin can make a montly close above previous resistance at $102 200 - which seems pretty promising - and then retest that as a support, I think we are on a good path.
Bitcoin also need to retest that level as support, and breakout is confirmed.
So, to confirm a breakout we must:
1. Monthly close above $102 200
2. Retest that new support minimum one time
3.Breakout is confirmed, Goblin town is behind us!
$BTC Bitcoin Pullback After Local High – Mid-Term Structure Stil
BTC faced rejection near $110K and is now pulling back to test key mid-range levels. Price action remains constructive unless deeper supports break.
🔸 Key Support Zone at $99,763:
This level aligns with previous range highs and is now acting as crucial support. A successful retest here could fuel the next leg up. If this fails, next support sits at $90,209.
🔸 Upside Target: $110,324
Despite the current dip, momentum on higher timeframes still favors upside. Liquidity above $110K remains untapped, and a bullish bounce from $99K–$100K zone could drive BTC to $110K+ in the coming weeks.
🔸 Risk Level at $90,209:
A breakdown below $99K and then $90K would negate the bullish structure and open downside toward $80K–$70K range. This level remains critical for bull market continuation.
🔸 Action Plan:
Watch the $99,763 zone closely. If BTC holds and prints a higher low, it’s a strong bullish sign. A recovery with volume confirmation can trigger a breakout push toward $113K–$120K. If $90K breaks, flip bias short-term bearish and expect extended consolidation.
Market next move 🔍 Disruption of the Current Bearish Setup:
1. Mislabeling of Levels:
The chart labels a newly broken support as "Support" still, even though price has clearly broken below that zone.
In proper technical analysis, once support is broken, it often turns into resistance, so the labels should be reversed.
2. Premature Downside Projection:
The bearish arrow assumes continued downside immediately after the breakdown, but there’s no confirmation candle or retest yet.
This could easily be a false breakdown or a liquidity sweep below support before a bounce.
3. No Confirmation from Volume:
Volume spiked on the breakdown, but the follow-up candle doesn’t confirm seller continuation.
Absence of sustained volume makes the move questionable. It could be a trap for breakout traders.
4. Lack of Trend Context:
The chart doesn't consider the broader trend. If BTC was in a strong uptrend before this pullback, this could be a bullish retracement, not a true reversal.
Drawing a trendline or checking a higher timeframe would help validate the direction.
BTC Macro View - Possible PullbackFailed breakout or just a pause?
Bitcoin wicked above the 7-month range ($74k–$109k) and hit a new ATH at $112k—but the breakout lacked conviction:
-3 Day candle did not close outside the range. It wicked above ATH and closed back inside, which often signals a failed breakout.
-Volume on the breakout was low—not the kind of commitment you'd expect on price discovery.
-Unless we reclaim the highs with conviction, the odds lean toward mean reversion or a deeper pullback, especially as macro risk increases (S&P weakness, renewed trade tension, credit rating concerns).
S&P Correlation
I was calling for a pullback on the S&P on May 16th in this Idea.
-https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/CMKml8I3-Bearish-Divergence-Pullback-Pending/
-The S&P has already started fading off highs.
-BTC kept pushing a bit longer—but may have just been lagging the risk-off shift.
-Now both look vulnerable and possibly entering correction together.
Macro Narrative Timeline
March–April:
Trump escalates tariff rhetoric → markets sell hard:
S&P falls from 6,100 → 4,800
BTC dumps from $108k → $74k
Mid-April–May:
Trump pivots, talks trade deals → markets bounce:
S&P rallies back to 6,000
BTC rips to $112k ATH
Now at highs, bearish news flow returns:
Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade
Trump targeting EU and Apple with new tariffs
S&P rolling over again
BTC starting to follow
This is narrative cycling:
Scare → Ease → Pump → Re-scare near highs
Short-Term Setup
Macro structure is still bullish. But short-term risk is rising fast:
-Bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart
-Failed breakout on the 3D, Low volume ATH push
-Crowded longs getting chopped
-BTC media coverage going vertical—endless bullish predictions across TV, headlines, social media
-Media didn't talk about BTC when it was at $74k. They were loud now, at the highs.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels from April 9 Low → $112k High
0.786 = $103,969
0.618 = $97,665
0.5 = $93,237
-Each level aligns with prior consolidation and offers strong technical context.
-No need to guess. We will watch volume + structure at each zone.
-These are prime areas to accumulate spot.
-No leverage. No chasing. Let it come to you.
-This is what Bitcoin is—accumulate pullbacks, hold, survive the chop.
-After this correction, I believe we push back to ATH and into price discovery.
Whale Psychology Trap (my thoughts on it)
Recently a Hyperliquid whale built a record breaking $1B+ BTC long on a defi exchange, drew in a massive herd to follow, then flipped short over the weekend after closing the position.
-Now that crowd is likely emotionally tied to their longs—feeling betrayed, stubborn, and unwilling to cut on a pullback.
-Red flag: we now have whales publicly influencing the herd with precision. Not a bullish short-term signal.
Final Thoughts
We’re seeing alignment across:
-Failed breakout on 3D
-Overheated retail sentiment (even though retail thinks the reverse, all you hear right now is "RETAIL IS NOT EVEN HERE YET")
-Public Whale traps in motion
-Media pushing euphoria the past two weeks
-Macro headwinds slowly creeping back in at the most convenient time to pullback
-BTC remains in a macro uptrend. But this is not a healthy breakout yet.
P.S.
This breakdown is mainly for traders.
But let me be clear:
-The smartest approach to Bitcoin is still simple—accumulate and hold spot.
-Given BTC’s position in a world of debt-soaked economies, eroding fiat trust, and centralized monetary control, it's far riskier to have none than to hold through volatility
-The wealthy, the powerful, the largest corporations — they’re starting to understand this reality
-Your job? Keep buying dips and holding long-term.
Use macro views like this to:
-Take profits from overextended markets (U.S. equities, alts, etc.)
-Time bigger BTC adds when fear returns
But if you own spot BTC?
Don’t sell it. Ever.
Trade other assets. Stack sats.
And if BTC ever hits $1M/coin... then sure—do whatever you want
BUY BTCUSD🚀 BUY ALERT – BTC/USD 🚀
📈 Action: Buy BTC/USD
🕒 Timing: Immediate Entry
📊 Reason: Bullish momentum detected – market showing signs of upward continuation
🎯 Strategy:
Entry: Market buy
Stop-Loss: Below recent support (adjust to your risk appetite)
Take-Profit: Target key resistance zones or use trailing stop
Trade wisely — apply solid risk management and stay alert for market shifts.
BTC/USD Potential Bullish Reversal – Falling Wedge Breakout WatcBitcoin is showing signs of a potential reversal on the 15-minute timeframe. A Falling Wedge pattern is forming, often seen as a possible early signal for upside continuation.
📌 Technical Overview:
Price is currently testing the wedge resistance.
If price breaks out and retests the wedge, it could lead to a continuation toward the 108,995–109,199 zone.
Strong horizontal support seen around 104,636.
Bullish price action forming higher lows.
📈 Breakout Confirmation:
A clear breakout and retest of the descending trendline could initiate momentum toward the upper resistance zone.
🟢 Target Area: 108,995–109,199
🔴 Support Level: 104,636
⚠️ Invalidation: Below 104,300 zone
🔎 Always observe price action and volume confirmation before making decisions. Use proper risk management.
BTCUSD INTRADAY supported at 103,330Trend Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) remains in a bullish trend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 103,330 (primary pivot), followed by 100,680 and 97,700
Resistance: 113,040 (initial), then 115,510 and 117,510
Technical Outlook:
A pullback to the 103,330 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 113,040, 115,510, and ultimately 117,510.
Conversely, a daily close below 103,330 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 100,680 and 97,700 as downside levels.
Conclusion:
BTC/USD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 103,330 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 113,040 area. A breakdown below 103,330, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.