#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 91000 - 100000 is still the range and the low held. Bears need a daily close below 91000 for more downside but until then, we are range-bound. Upside max should be 100k. We have been in this range for two months now, I won’t over analyze it. I have given my longer-term opinion in my year-end special and I stick to that until clearly invalid.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls have going for them that they kept it above 90k again. Until we have a daily close below it, they are inside the range and at the lows the r:r favors them to trade back up again. 96k is the next target for them if they want more upside to 100k.
Invalidation is below 90k.
bear case: Bears failing at 90k again. Sad stuff but that’s the reality for now. Above 96k they will likely step aside until 100k, where I expect market to make another lower high and we continue in this descending triangle until we get a bigger impulse again.
Invalidation is above 103k.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 90k and only slightly bullish above 96k for 100k. Will scale into swing shorts near 100k again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-29: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: Took most off my swing short around 92000 and will add higher again.
chart update: Added bear trend line and head & shoulders pattern.
