Two potential paths to 130kPath 1: Running Continuation
Path 2: Full 20% correction, like January 2024
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Short Bitcoin (BTC) (For Study Purpose Only)Short Recommendation
Entry Level: Below $94,000
Stop Loss (SL): $111,111
This surge has been largely attributed to President-elect Donald Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance, including promises of deregulation and the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
However, concerns are emerging regarding Bitcoin's current valuation. Analysts warn that the market may be overheating, with some predicting a potential correction of up to 35%.
COINTELEGRAPH
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the U.S. central bank cannot hold Bitcoin, which has introduced uncertainty into the market.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
BTC BULLISH CORRECTION Correction BTC Christmas party. Dio for buyers, hope Trump make crypto to the moon.
BTC BEARSHzone bearish TO BTC BY BTC.D
Bitcoin will enter the correction phase, and at this stage, it can have a correction capacity of up to 95000 in the first scenario and up to8700 % END 6500 in the next scenario. The analysis will be sent in the next posts.
aminm75//@version=5
indicator("MACD + ADX + RSI Strategy", overlay=true)
// MACD settings
= ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
macdHist = macdLine - signalLine
// ADX settings
adxValue = ta.adx(14)
// RSI settings
rsiValue = ta.rsi(close, 14)
// Conditions of purchase and sale
buySignal = (macdLine > signalLine) and (adxValue > 20) and (rsiValue < 30)
sellSignal = (macdLine < signalLine) and (adxValue > 20) and (rsiValue > 70)
// Draw the signals on the graph
plotshape(buySignal, style=shape.labelup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, size=size.small, title="Buy Signal", text="BUY")
plotshape(sellSignal, style=shape.labeldown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, size=size.small, title="Sell Signal", text="SELL")
// Display the values of the indicators in a separate panel
hline(20, "ADX Threshold", color=color.gray)
plot(adxValue, title="ADX", color=color.blue)
hline(30, "RSI Oversold", color=color.green)
hline(70, "RSI Overbought", color=color.red)
plot(rsiValue, title="RSI", color=color.orange)
Bitcoin repeating??Almost identical from about a month ago. Tomorrow maybe an indecision day then onward &upwards? (identical daily candles)
$100,000 remains the key reference for bitcoinLike gold, bitcoin retraced lower around the Fed’s latest meeting, which is a normal reaction as the outlook for monetary policy becomes less dovish. Bitcoin is arguably a bit less vulnerable than gold to higher rates because there are various ways for holders of transferable bitcoins, especially now that many coins are at or close to all-time highs. Participants in crypto markets view the likely policies of the incoming Republican government positively.
Bitcoin’s momentum has been lower in December which makes sense as the price approached the critical and long-awaited area of $100,000. Volume has also decreased somewhat compared to the peak around the middle of last month and there’s no longer such a strong overbought signal as there had been for most of November. The latest retracement from the 100% weekly Fibonacci extension was also expected since this was the stretch target since the middle of last month.
Given current strong sentiment, a move back below $90,000 seems unfavourable in the near future, but $100,000 could remain an important battleground. Now that the uptrend is clearly mature and participants seem inclined to buy more quickly during even relatively modest retracements, a retest of $108,000 seems likely in the next few weeks. However, traders should prepare for higher volatility during upcoming holidays.
This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
BTC CRASH ALERT UPDATEKey Levels and Observations
Previous All-Time High (ATH):
Clearly marked and seems to have acted as both resistance and psychological reference point.
Price briefly tested this level before consolidating below.
Resistance Zones:
Highlighted in Red: These zones indicate where selling pressure is concentrated. The recent move upwards has struggled near the $106,000 zone (1.618 Fibonacci extension) and the resistance cluster below $108,000.
Red Circle near ATH: Indicates a critical rejection zone where bears might be stepping in to control the price.
Support Zones:
Fibonacci levels from $91,000 to $99,500 (0.618, 0.5, and 0.382 retracement levels) show clear support zones where buyers may accumulate.
The green lines below $92,000 show additional support extensions for deeper corrections.
Black Swan Warning ("Dump Incoming"):
Suggests the possibility of a sudden, sharp decline. This may be speculative but worth noting for risk management.
Red zone above $108,000 highlights extreme caution.
Trend Lines:
Dashed upward trendline indicates the broader uptrend still intact, but a breach below would signal a possible reversal.
Market Sentiment:
"BTC CRASH ALERT" emphasizes bearish caution.
"The Bears are out watchout" adds to the bearish sentiment as Bitcoin approaches resistance zones.
Fibonacci Analysis
Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.236 ($99,417): Currently holding as weak support.
0.382 ($100,793): Significant midpoint level currently in play.
0.5 ($101,905) and 0.618 ($103,017): Critical retracement levels to watch for continuation or reversal.
1.618 Extension ($106,436): Serves as an immediate resistance target.
Deep Retracement Zone:
0.618 ($95,308) to 1.0 ($92,918) retracement range indicates the strongest support for a larger correction.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Scenario (Breakout):
Price breaks and holds above $106,000 (1.618 Fibonacci).
Retests and holds $108,000, targeting new highs.
Bearish Scenario (Fakeout or Dump):
Price fails to sustain $104,000 or falls below $101,000 (0.382 retracement).
A sharp correction could target deeper support levels at $95,000–$92,000.
Neutral/Consolidation:
Price remains range-bound between $101,000 and $106,000, building momentum for a directional move.
Actionable Points
Shorting Resistance Zones: Monitor for price rejections near $106,000 and $108,000. Bearish candlestick patterns here could confirm a short trade.
Buying Support Levels: Look for bullish signals around $95,000–$92,000 or key Fibonacci levels.
Breakout Entries: If Bitcoin closes decisively above $106,000, a breakout trade could target $110,000 or higher.
Stop-Loss Management:
For longs: Place below $95,000.
For shorts: Place above $108,000.
Volume Break-out BTC The volume surge is similar to the beginning move of 7 November, 95k seems likely in present week.
Is BTC in a accumulation phase?Bitcoin is in an 7K (about 35%) range since 150 days now, and just broke to the downside.
Could this be the spring of an Wyckoff accumulation schematic?
It is no secret that price action has been choppy ever since it entered the trade range, has to shake most people out.
Of course, for this to be an spring we'd need big buyers stepping in, and defying all of the sell volume we've seen so far.
On the other hand, bulls already had absord a lot of BTC sell order and could therefore mean price is near a reversal.
Price could of course(inevitably in the bull case) retest the price range and fade of to fresh lows.
It is also no secret that BTC is highly correlated to traditional markets. It would therefore make sense for both markets to bottom at somewhat the same time.
But with everything we've seen, it could be possible for BTC to mark a bottom now and see price suppression while the DJI, NASDAQ and SPX mark their bottoms in.
It is also an great idea to keep in mind that price tend to move again the masses, and with the FTX/ALAMEDA illiquidity situation, everyone is scared and calling for lower lows.
This is only an gut feeling based on market sentiment right now and only support the unprobability that market would reverse(while everyone is bearish).
Next days/weeks are gonna determine the direction ahead for BTC.
BTC BEAR We do have lower targets and I have already rolled stops for the #btc #bear after TP1 was HIT...
This is the structure I have added for now & I will update as we GO... JUST LIKE MY #GOLD trade
Remember the current levels are BI-Directional for a reason... go look at my last idea on the bear and you will see why...
Good luck and I am sorry if I do not follow back... BUT its my policy.... and I don't break my rules.
BTC 94KBitcoin is traded in an ascending channel. The upper trend line has always regected.
At the same time, ther is a bearish divergence.
See you at 94k.
Our Short Positions are still open. LTC/ LINK / ETH / BNB.
All reached TP2 = 50% profit for each.
We need to wait for 110kThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess.
Powell Shocks the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Slides BackwardThe cryptocurrency market suffered a notable drop after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed “cannot own Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.” These statements, made in the context of a financial stability conference, intensified the downward pressure in an environment already affected by recent monetary policy decisions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Decline
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, lost more than 4% in the last 24 hours, falling below $25,000. Ethereum also experienced a similar decline, settling near $1,500. Both currencies face a challenging outlook amid regulatory uncertainty and risk aversion in global markets. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at the Sunday trading range on the 15th of this month, coinciding with the checkpoint (POC) at $101,711. For the time being, the value is holding and bullish pressure is once again picking up the market.
Powell and the role of the Fed
Powell stressed that while the Fed is interested in exploring the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), it does not see owning Bitcoin as consistent with its monetary policy or financial stability objectives. This comment reignited concerns about the future of cryptocurrencies in an environment where regulators are seeking greater control.
Market Outlook
Uncertainty over regulatory policies in the U.S., coupled with signs of a more restrictive Fed, continues to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. Investors are now closely watching any developments in digital asset legislation, as well as the impact of monetary policies on risk appetite.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies face an uncertain path, marked by the tension between their growing adoption and the increasingly strict oversight of global regulators.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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$BTC Supply ShockBitcoin reserves have dropped to a historic low of 2.4 million, signaling a “supply shock”.
The whales purchased recent retracement causing a strong demand.
D1 CLS, BPR Key Level, Model 1D1 CLS, BPR Key Level, Model 1
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
What is CLS?
This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets.
CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing.
Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Bitcoin Bubble Is Bitcoin Heading for a Bubble Burst in 2025?
Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a predictable 4-year cycle, driven by its halving events. These halvings, which cut mining rewards by half, have consistently triggered parabolic bull runs, followed by significant corrections. Past cycles demonstrate this pattern clearly: the 2012 halving led to a massive rally in 2013, only to be followed by an 80% crash in 2014; the 2016 halving fueled the 2017 rally to $20,000, followed by an 85% correction in 2018; and the 2020 halving saw Bitcoin peak at $69,000 in 2021, before a sharp downturn in 2022. As the next halving approaches in 2024, many traders and investors are questioning whether history will repeat itself, with a potential “bubble burst” looming in 2025.
Adding to this, recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the broader macroeconomic environment, which could contribute to speculative bubbles forming. Powell has hinted at potential risks of overextended financial markets, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a “higher for longer” stance on interest rates. This policy could dampen liquidity and speculative growth, which often fuels Bitcoin’s parabolic rallies. Powell’s warnings signal that Bitcoin could face heightened risk of a sharp correction if valuations become unsustainable.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently shows signs of forming a bearish flag pattern on higher timeframes. This pattern, if confirmed, suggests a potential breakdown and retracement to key support zones. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often retraces 50%-80% of its bull market gains during bear markets. If Bitcoin reaches a speculative peak in late 2024 or early 2025—potentially exceeding $120,000—a correction of this magnitude could bring it back to $70,000 or lower, aligning with past market behaviors.
The $70,000 level could act as a crucial support zone, as it represents a psychological threshold and a region of high trading volume from the 2021 bull market. However, if macroeconomic factors such as rising interest rates, regulatory pressures, or liquidity constraints intensify, Bitcoin could even breach this level temporarily, much like it did during previous cycles when fear dominated the market.
While Bitcoin’s fundamentals have improved due to increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and its role as a hedge against inflation, traders must remain cautious. With speculative mania likely to drive Bitcoin to new highs post-halving, the risk of a significant correction by mid-to-late 2025 remains high. If the bearish flag confirms and Powell’s warnings materialize, Bitcoin revisiting the $70,000 level could become a reality.
BTCUSDPrice has produced a new Daily HH, which, in fact, created new Daily Swing Points. We now should ultimately see Price encounter another Bullish leg after this Bearish retracement.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
Bitcoin Lets see how far we go down !!!!!Bitcoin price prediction for the coimng days 2025 will be great. The Bull Run Is Coming !!!!
Analyzing Bitcoin's price to 200K$Analyzing the BTC/USD Chart
A very interesting pattern is forming on the BTC/USD chart, particularly on the 1-month time frame. After analyzing the chart and considering Bitcoin's historical behavior, I believe we're currently within an uptrend channel—a trend that has been intact for several years now. The price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, suggesting strong upward momentum. This is a significant indicator of Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend.
Larger Timeframe Pattern: The Triangle Formation
Looking at the larger time frame, I observe that a triangle pattern is gradually taking shape. These triangles typically form during periods of consolidation, where price action compresses within converging trendlines. This suggests that we're witnessing a significant pattern of indecision between buyers and sellers.
Crucially, triangles often lead to a breakout once the price is forced to move beyond the confines of the pattern. Given Bitcoin’s history of explosive moves following periods of consolidation, it seems plausible that we are on the verge of another major breakout.
Anticipating a Breakout and Price Movement
If the triangle pattern continues to develop as expected, I anticipate that Bitcoin could break to the upside, potentially seeing substantial price appreciation in the coming years. The extent of this breakout will depend on how the market reacts as the triangle continues to tighten. If sustained demand and interest continue—especially from institutional investors—the breakout could be significant, driving Bitcoin’s price even higher.
Why Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000: Key Factors
I believe there is a strong case for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 for one BTC within the next few years. Here’s why:
a. Long-Term Uptrend Channel
Bitcoin has demonstrated an ability to remain in an uptrend for long periods, even amidst volatility. The structure of higher highs and higher lows points to an ongoing bullish trend, driven by factors such as increasing adoption, technological advancements, and growing recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value.
b. Institutional Adoption
Major institutional players are increasingly embracing Bitcoin. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Grayscale have purchased significant amounts, and platforms like PayPal and Fidelity have integrated Bitcoin into their offerings. As institutional demand continues to grow, it could drive Bitcoin’s price much higher.
c. Scarcity and Supply Dynamics
Bitcoin operates on a deflationary model, with a fixed supply of only 21 million coins. As demand increases, especially with Bitcoin’s growing use as a hedge against inflation, its price should naturally rise. The increasing amount of Bitcoin held long-term by investors and institutions reduces the available supply in the market, which could further drive up prices.
d. Global Economic Trends
The current macroeconomic environment, with rising inflation and potential fiat currency devaluation, makes Bitcoin an increasingly attractive alternative asset. Bitcoin is being viewed more and more as a “safe haven” asset—similar to gold—which strengthens the case for higher prices as more people look for stores of value outside traditional financial systems.
e. Technological and Network Upgrades
Bitcoin continues to evolve with improvements like the Lightning Network, which enhances scalability and transaction speeds. As Bitcoin’s infrastructure grows, its real-world use case increases, making it more valuable and usable for daily transactions, which in turn could further elevate its price.
f. Psychological Factors and FOMO
The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is a powerful force in financial markets, especially in the cryptocurrency space. As Bitcoin’s price begins to climb toward higher levels, it will likely attract more retail and institutional investors, accelerating its growth. A significant rally towards $200,000 could be fueled by this psychological factor.
Conclusion: The Road to $200,000
While Bitcoin's price movements are never without volatility, I believe that if it continues to follow the patterns we see on the chart, the breakout from the triangle could drive Bitcoin's price to $200,000 or even higher in the next few years. The fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin’s long-term growth—such as institutional adoption, scarcity, economic conditions, technological upgrades, and FOMO—make this projection plausible.
