BITCOIN Seems to have Broken the LONG Term resistance- BIG DAY
The chart really does say it all
You can see the Arc, above PA that has rejected PA Every ATH since 2013
It created the point of rejection on 6 ATH in Total and presented a huge problem if it was not broken. And I can assure you, that arc touches Every ATH.
Just recently, this same line rejected PA Twice, with strength.
The Zoomed chart below shows you where we are now
This image shows you the two 2021 ATH points. and the last two touches { which I find remarkably close to the 2021 double ATH but in miniature }
And, as you can see, we have a candle ABOVE this Arc of resistance. and the Big question is now, WILL WE STAY ABOVE
And what is also notable is how this has happened perfectly at the end of the FIB TIME SCALE used.
This line will have to be tested as support one day and when that day comes, we really REALLY need to remain above.
And once we do that..we really will be in price discovery, in a way that we have never been before.
I am looking at some charts that may offer projected lines of resistance but I am waiting to see what happens here first before publishing them
ENJOY THE RIDE
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Geopolitics, Markets & Real Strategy: It's No Longer Just About
We’re entering a new global phase. Politics, economics, and warfare no longer operate on separate tracks. What once was diplomacy is now turning into direct geopolitical tensions and strategic maneuvers that are reshaping global market behavior.
🧭 What’s happening?
China is stepping into the Gaza conflict
This breaks years of strategic neutrality in the Middle East.
It signals the start of a new indirect confrontation between China and the U.S.
Diplomacy is being replaced by displays of power
Global players are acting based on interests, not speeches.
This new phase is not just military—it’s financial, economic, and structural.
The U.S. is reacting through financial firepower
$16 billion in 20-year bonds were auctioned with exceptionally high yields.
Weak demand = rising concern over the U.S. deficit and debt sustainability.
📉 How are markets responding?
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are falling—not due to earnings, but geopolitical risk pricing.
Bitcoin and gold are strengthening as alternative safe-haven assets.
Short-duration bonds (like SHY) are gaining favor for their capital protection.
💡 How are we responding?
We’re applying a 3-phase strategy, with strict discipline based on our 20-point checklist—covering technicals, fundamentals, and mental clarity:
🔒 Phase 1 – Capital Protection
Holding 30–40% in liquidity
Investing in BTC, gold (GLD), and short-term bonds (SHY)
🔥 Phase 2 – Tactical Attack
Only entering if at least 19 out of 20 checklist points are met
Buying CALLs on strong technical rebounds in solid names (MSFT, AMZN, TLT)
Using precise stop-losses and <1% risk per trade
🔭 Phase 3 – Post-Crisis Positioning
Accumulating in defensive sectors: energy, healthcare, defense, AI
Building a hybrid portfolio: resilience + growth
🧨 China’s Ace Up Its Sleeve
What few mention is that China doesn’t only hold political or military influence.
It holds a financial bomb in silence: over $770 billion in U.S. Treasury debt.
👉 If China were to start unloading that debt—accepting the losses as collateral damage—the consequences could be devastating:
Bond yields would spike; U.S. debt would become harder to sustain
Stocks and bond markets would plunge
A crisis of confidence in the U.S. economy could erupt
Global recession risk would skyrocket
In modern geopolitical chess, sometimes sacrificing a pawn is the strategy to threaten the king.
🎯 Final Takeaway
These are not times to trade on emotion.
These are times to trade with strategic vision, disciplined risk control, and mental strength.
And those who grasp this early… won’t just survive—they’ll dominate the new cycle.
💬 How are you positioning your portfolio in this new cycle?
📩 Want access to my full 20-point checklist or strategic breakdown? Drop a comment below.
BTC/USD: Structural Breakout of Curved Resistance – Eyes on $116Technical Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully completed a significant technical breakout after months of accumulation and resistance interaction. The chart highlights a precise market structure where price has moved from a phase of consolidation into a confirmed bullish breakout, with a clearly defined target and invalidation level.
1. SR Interchange Zone (Support-turned-Resistance):
From May to October 2024, BTC price action was trapped in a sideways range, marked by an extended accumulation phase between approximately $60,000 to $73,000. This zone acted as a historical resistance level during the downtrend, but was later flipped into support, forming a classic SR Interchange — a foundational concept in market structure analysis.
This area provided a strong base from which BTC launched its late 2024 rally.
2. Consolidation Below Curved Resistance (Dec 2024 – Apr 2025):
Following a steep bullish impulse, BTC entered a multi-month consolidation phase, forming a rounded top pattern — shown on the chart as the Black Mind Curve Resistance. This curved resistance represented a psychological and structural ceiling, suppressing bullish momentum and trapping liquidity.
Price action was tightly compressed under this dynamic resistance curve, with multiple failed breakout attempts. This period was marked by range-bound volatility and low directional commitment — classic behavior during a re-accumulation phase.
3. Breakout of Black Mind Curve Resistance (May 2025):
A major technical event occurred as BTC broke decisively above the Black Mind Curve Resistance, accompanied by a surge in bullish momentum. This move not only invalidated the prior rounding top structure but also confirmed a trend continuation breakout.
The breakout was clean, with strong follow-through volume and a higher high structure above the Major Horizontal Resistance Zone (~$105,000–$109,000) — now confirmed as flipped support.
4. Bullish Continuation & Price Target:
Following the breakout, BTC has established a higher low and continued its upward trajectory toward the marked target zone at $116,065. This zone coincides with:
Previous untested supply levels
Technical Fibonacci extension (1.272–1.618 zone)
Measured move from the curve structure base
With current momentum and structure intact, BTC remains bullishly biased until it either reaches the target zone or breaks below the invalidation level.
5. Invalidation & Risk Management:
A close below $102,005 — the defined SI (Support-Invalidation) level — would be considered structurally bearish. This level represents:
The most recent higher low
Base of the breakout structure
Re-entry into previous consolidation range
A breakdown below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis and may open the door for a deeper pullback toward $95,000 or even $88,000.
✅ Conclusion:
The breakout of the Black Mind Curve Resistance marks a significant technical shift in Bitcoin’s trend. With momentum in favor of the bulls and market structure supporting higher prices, BTC appears poised to test the $116,000 target zone in the short to mid-term — barring a breakdown below key support.
📌 Key Levels Recap:
Level Type Price
Target Zone $116,065
Current Price $110,902
Support / Invalidation (SI) $102,005
📈 Strategy Outlook:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Area: Retest of $107,000–$109,000 (if offered)
Target: $116,065
Stop-Loss: Below $102,005 (structural invalidation)
💬 Stay focused on structure, not emotions. The best trades are born from patience, not prediction.
Let me know if you'd like a summary version for use on social media or a custom signature block for your TradingView profile.
Bitcoin Make New All Time High!Bitcoin just flipped the script.
After multiple days of confirmed bearish divergence on the daily RSI – one of my favorite signals – price has now decisively pushed higher, likely invalidating the setup. This is a strong reminder that no signal is right all the time, and market context always matters more than indicators in isolation.
We now have a new all-time high on both a closing and intraday basis, coupled with a clear surge in volume on the breakout – a textbook bullish confirmation. Price has left the $109,358 zone behind and is holding firmly above it as of now.
The structure couldn’t be cleaner. Higher lows, consistent buying pressure, and now continuation to the upside even in the face of temporary overbought conditions. This was a classic example of “bearish divergence failure” – which often leads to explosive upside as shorts get trapped.
Momentum is back on Bitcoin’s side. The next resistance is undefined territory, but psychologically, the $115K and $120K levels could attract attention.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is doing what strong assets do in bull trends – invalidating bearish signals and grinding higher.
New highs for bitcoin above $110,000Bitcoin has performed very strongly overall since the second half of last month, moving up to test fresh record highs currently. Possible American deregulation is in focus while appetite for risk has recovered recently as rhetoric on trade, particularly between China and the USA, has calmed down significantly. MVRV is about 2.2, so the uptrend might be mature, but sentiment remains mostly greedy. The more dovish scenarios for the Fed this year seem much less likely than around this time last month with a plurality of participants now expecting only two cuts by the end of 2025.
From the chart, it's also pretty clear that the medium-term uptrend starting around the middle of April is mature. Buying saturation from the stochastic or RSI is obvious but this usually isn't such an important factor for a cryptocurrency. The 100% weekly Fibonacci extension was previously a resistance so might now flip to being an area of support if the price can hold above $107,000 for more than a couple of days. The obvious longer term target would be the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion around $140,000.
An immediate consolidation or correction much below $100,000 seems quite unlikely under the current circumstances. The main dynamic support for now could be the 20 SMA around $102,600. This is a potentially difficult situation for new buyers because it presents a dilemma whether to 'jump on the rocket' quickly at the risk of there being no more 'rocket' for a while or to wait for a significant consolidation which equally might mean missing any further 'rocket'.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Bitcoin Market Update 22-May-25Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
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Bitcoin could surprise with new ATHs- one of the more tricky analysis since technically BTC could be in a HTF downtrend so looking for very high upside targets is not the best idea
- that said, there are some interesting developments here:
1. PA has broken the very clear downtrend line
2. S/R flip just recently confirmed on the 4H time-frame suggests the bull strength is real
3. perhaps most importantly, Bitcoin has traded differently to US equities for the last couple of days with SPX heading sharply lower but Bitcoin not really following and even rallying (something unheard of until this year!)
It is too early to tell whether this is a new dynamic between the two and certainly far too early to say that Bitcoin has become a risk-off/alternative asset but with Trump fundamentally changing the flow of goods, services and most importantly capital it may be time to discard all the old, known asset correlations aside.
High conviction that Bitcoin heads to at least the 92k - 94k region. Possibility of a surprise run towards previous and perhaps even new ATHs is present and would be confirmed if Bitcoin starts holding the 95 - 96k level.
Ultimately, it is rather likely that the upcoming move is fake/nothing but a bear rally and lower prices are expected or at the very least it is unlikely upside PA for Bitcoin gets sustained in the long term UNTIL
.. as long as Solana is not trading below 80$, chances are we are still in a bear(ish) market.
May 21 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There is no separate indicator announcement today.
After the red finger chase purchase,
I explained the main demand section drawing and price.
I applied it to Bitcoin as is.
This is a Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
At the bottom left, the purple finger
connects the strategy to the long position entry section that was entered on the 20th.
*When the red finger moves,
it is a one-way long position strategy.
1. $105,263.7 long position entry section / stop loss price when the sky blue support line is broken
2. $108,207.6 long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target -> Good 3rd target price
The 1st section at the top is the rising wave confirmation section,
and the strategy is more likely to succeed if the purple support line is broken after the touch.
(If it goes up right away, there is a possibility of a vertical rise)
Red finger long hold
If it goes down right away without touching, it is the final long hold strategy at 2.
From the 2nd section deviation, I marked Bottom -> 3
Since the mid-term pattern was broken yesterday,
you should succeed in rebounding within the green support line if possible.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use,
and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
Artavion Analysts Forecast Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by End of MThe analytical company Artavion has released an updated forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of May 2025. According to the experts, amid sustained institutional demand and limited supply following the recent halving, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $100,000 in the coming days.
Key Growth Drivers
Analysts highlight several factors contributing to Bitcoin's price growth:
📈 Institutional Demand: Ongoing accumulation by investment funds and banks through spot ETFs approved in the U.S. and Asia.
⛏ Reduced Supply: The April halving has decreased miner rewards, limiting daily BTC issuance.
🇺🇸 Fed Policy Easing: Expectations of interest rate cuts are increasing demand for alternative assets, including crypto.
💼 Market Confidence: Growth in long-term holders and increasing BTC withdrawals from exchanges indicate a “HODLing” trend among investors.
Company Comment
"We are witnessing stable accumulation and a capital shift into digital assets. If markets avoid major shocks, Bitcoin has every chance to consolidate above $95,000 and briefly test the psychological barrier of $100,000," said Alexey Gurov, senior strategist at Artavion.
Potential Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts point out several risks that could impact the forecast:
📉 Unexpected macroeconomic data (e.g., rising inflation, stronger U.S. dollar);
⚠️ Regulatory actions from the SEC or other global bodies;
🌍 Escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could trigger risk-off sentiment.
Conclusion
Considering the current market environment and macroeconomic expectations, Artavion maintains a positive short-term outlook for Bitcoin through the end of May, while cautioning investors to remain aware of the sector’s inherent volatility and risk.
Unveiling Crypto Market Insights - Bitcoin Price DiscoveryGM bitcoin enthusiasts,
Yesterday, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $110,730 on Bitstamp, with a record daily close at $109,682. 🚀
Today, BTC is continuing its upward momentum, seemingly unfazed by resistance at the previous all-time high around the $109K level. Bulls remain in control—for now.
So the question is:
- Is this a true breakout signaling continuation of the rally?
- Or is this just a deviation above resistance that needs to cool off before making new highs?
- Could we be facing a stronger correction soon?
Curious to hear your thoughts—are you riding this wave, or playing it cautious?
P.S. There’s something poetic about Bitcoin making new highs on Bitcoin Pizza Day. 🍕 Maybe it's the perfect excuse to treat yourself to a slice and reflect on how far we've come.
Market next move
1. Overreliance on Basic Support/Resistance
Issue: The analysis uses a simple support/resistance concept without clear validation (e.g., no multiple touches or volume confirmation).
Disruption: Support could easily break if there's insufficient volume or strong bearish sentiment, invalidating the buy signal.
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2. Lack of Confirmation Indicators
Issue: There's no use of confirmation tools like RSI, MACD, or moving averages.
Disruption: Entering a "Buy" based purely on support without a reversal signal (like bullish divergence or candle patterns) increases risk.
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3. Premature Target Setting
Issue: The target is drawn quickly after a minor dip, with no fib levels, pivot points, or historical resistance considered.
Disruption: The price might face resistance before reaching the “Target,” especially around previous highs or psychological levels.
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4. Ignoring Downside Risk
Issue: The scenario assumes price will bounce back but doesn’t show a stop-loss or contingency for a breakdown.
Disruption: If price breaks the "Support" zone, it could trigger a stronger bearish move—this risk is not accounted for.
---
5. Misleading Arrows
Issue: Arrows (red, yellow, blue) seem speculative and oversimplified.
Disruption: They imply a clear path, which can mislead traders into thinking price action follows linear logic—real markets are more chaotic.
BITCOIN made new ATH but still much time left before a Cycle topBitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to enter the final week of May, with the month mostly likely to close on a strong green candle, the 2nd straight. Though it made yesterday a new All Time High (ATH) above 109k and many are already talking about a bearish reversal, this chart shows that there is still plenty of time left before the current Bull Cycle tops.
If fact a simple measurement of the Bottom to Bottom and Bottom to Top ranges of the last 3 Cycles is enough to present all the evidence that are needed for this case.
As you can see, the previous 2 Bull Cycles lasted for 35 months (1065 days) from Bottom to Top. Similarly, the Bottom to Bottom (Bear Cycle to Bear Cycle) measurement has been 47 months (1430 days).
This amazing symmetry suggest that BTC is more likely than not to repeat this feat on the current Cycle as well. A 35 month range from Top to Top indicates that the Bull Cycle is expected to peak on October 2025, while a 47 month Bottom to Bottom range indicates that the next Bear Cycle should bottom in October 2026! As far as a potential price top is concerned, various of the previous analyses we've conducted show that $200k is a fair maximum, but the current study focuses on the timing of profit taking and not specific price levels.
So are you willing to book your profits by this October? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
118.75KMorning folks,
So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target.
But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around the top, without sharp drop back, it is not at overbought or at some strong resistance, so it could keep going higher. Next our upside target is 118.75K. So we could keep existed longs, just don't forget to manage stops.
If downside pullback still starts it might become good chance for long entry again. Market now is driven by rebalancing portfolios of big funds that have to sell US assets as they lost AAA rating. This explains why dollar is falling while yields are raising. This is not fast process and probably will last for some time more.
BTC on weekly chart ( cup and handle )CRYPTO:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
As an overview of Bitcoin on the weekly chart.
We have a cup and handle targeting the area at 131,000 and I think this price is the target of this cycle.
We also have the neckline zone at the price of 73k and we see that the price is still trading above it until now, so in the event of any other decline, I think the neckline area is the lowest price that will be reached and represents the retest point to start for the new highs.
We also note that the price is still above the averages: 50-100-200 and we notice its rebound when it touched the average of 50
Conclusion: Since we are above the 70-73 thousand zone, there is no need to worry because this indicates that the chart is moving in the right direction, but in the event of a break in the 70k zone, this will be the first sign of the beginning of the negative.
UPDATE SOON ....
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 110,000.Colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet, so I move wave “3” higher as prolonged.
I believe that the price will reach a strong resistance level of 110,000.
A small correction is possible, as usual.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!