#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: 65000 - 69000 dead zone for me. I was wrong with my bear thesis so far and doing nothing right now is the wisest choice. Below 65000 bears are favored and above 70000, we likely print new ath.
Quote from last week:
comment: Neutral I called it and neutral it still is. Market continues to oscillate around the daily 20ema at 62000. Don’t try to look for deeper meaning in this. There is none. Wait for a breakout or trade the range. I won’t waste more time writing about this tight trading range.
comment: If you read it all and made it to this section, I thank you for reading and won’t bore you with this. It’s a triangle nested inside a bull wedge. Wait for the triangle to break above 65000 or above 70000. Bull wedge could get us to 71000+ and if bulls fail, next support is the bull trend line around 63000.
current market cycle: Nested triangle inside bull wedge
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 70000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has no clear direction for 2 weeks now.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 65000. That’s it. That’s all I care to write about this.
Invalidation is above 70000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral inside given range, bearish below and bullish above. Will see a bigger move Monday/Tuesday.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 62640 and now we are at 68390. Bad outlook.
short term: Neutral. Sue me. Clear invalidation levels. Wait for the breakout. If this prints above 70000 it will probably be an amazing short opportunity.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added triangle and removed wave counts.