“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope.
Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters.
What you don’t see can hurt you
Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct.
Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem.
You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened.
A backtest should feel like a real trade
Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken.
If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close.
And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles.
Smaller data, clearer picture
1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior.
Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t.
And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks.
So how small should you go?
There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight.
Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you.
Watch out for “too good to be true”
One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy.
Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details.
TL;DR:
In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks.
go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
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🏁Buy entry above 89000
🏁Sell Entry below 81000
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Stop Loss 🛑:
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Using the 4H period, the recent / swing low or high level.
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BTCUSD Eyes Reversal at $83,642 – Key Bounce Zone Ahead!Price is completing a potential bullish harmonic move toward the $83,642 zone, which aligns with a strong support level. If buyers step in here, we may see a reversal toward $84,591 and possibly higher. However, if $83,411 breaks, downside risk increases.
🟢 Watch for bullish price action near $83,642
🔴 Invalidation below $83,411
📈 Previous rejection from $85,822 led to current pullback
BTCUSD: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 84,334.50 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 84,988.36 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
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Bitcoin’s Breakout Blueprint: Eyeing $92KAs of April 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $84,500, having recently tested the $92,000 level multiple times. This price point is significant, serving as both a psychological barrier and a technical resistance level.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance and Support Levels: Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $92,000, a level that has been tested repeatedly. A sustained move above this could open the path toward $100,000 and potentially $108,000, the previous all-time high from December 2024. On the downside, support is observed around $85,650, aligning with the 200-day EMA. Further support lies at $78,000 and $74,500, marking previous consolidation zones.
Chart Patterns: The formation of a bullish pennant on the daily chart suggests potential for an upward breakout. If confirmed, this pattern could propel BTC toward $137,000 by Q3 2025.
Volume and Momentum: Recent trading volumes have been moderate, with a slight uptick during price advances, indicating growing buyer interest. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are neutral, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.
Fundamental Factors:
Institutional Inflows: Significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $70 billion, have been observed, reflecting strong institutional interest.
CryptoRank
Macroeconomic Environment: Liquidity injections by the U.S. Treasury, amounting to $500 billion since February 2025, have increased market liquidity, which historically correlates with Bitcoin price appreciation.
Halving Effect: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving event has reduced the supply of new BTC, a factor that has historically led to substantial price increases in subsequent months.
Mid-Term Outlook:
Considering the technical and fundamental factors, Bitcoin's mid-term target remains at $92,000. A decisive break above this level could lead to a retest of the $100,000 psychological barrier and potentially higher targets. However, failure to maintain support above $85,650 may result in a consolidation phase or a retest of lower support levels.
Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels, institutional investment trends, and macroeconomic indicators to assess Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.
BTC will head towards S1 and may even head towards S21. Objective
• Primary Target (TP1): Support 1 at 84,417
• Secondary Target (TP2): Support 2 at 83,801
2. Timeframes
• Analysis: 4‑hour chart (H4) to confirm medium‑term bearish bias
• Execution & Confirmation: 1‑hour chart (H1)
3. Entry Criteria
1. H4 Breakdown: Close below the minor resistance zone (~84,700) on H4.
2. H1 Confirmation: A H1 candle closes below S1 (84,417) with above‑average sell volume.
3. RSI Filter: H1 RSI < 50 but ≥ 30, indicating room to drop further before oversold.
4. Position Sizing & Risk Management
• Risk per Trade: 1–2 % of account equity.
• Stop‑Loss Options:
• Tighter: Above the broken minor resistance (~84,700), or
• Wider: Above the Pivot Point (85,016).
• Risk/Reward Ratios:
• Entry → TP1: aim for at least 1:2 RR
• Entry → TP2: overall position RR of at least 1:3
5. Exit Plan
1. Partial Take‑Profit: Close 50 % of the position at S1 (84,417).
2. Breakeven & Trail:
• Move stop to breakeven once TP1 is hit.
• Then trail stop above the most recent swing high (e.g. ~84,500) as price heads toward S2.
3. Final Exit: Close remaining position at S2 (83,801).
6. Alternative Scenario (False Break )
• Signal: If price revisits S1 but forms a bullish rejection candle (hammer/engulfing) with rising buy volume.
• Action:
• Cancel the short, or
• Flip to a quick long scalp toward the broken resistance (~84,700) with a tight SL below the reversal low.
7. Monitoring & Adjustment
• RSI (H1/H4):
• Beware when RSI approaches oversold (<30) without further breakdown—it may signal a rebound.
• Watch for bullish divergence (lower low price + higher low RSI) as an early reversal cue.
• Volume:
• Require sell‑volume on entry bars to exceed the 20‑period average.
• Economic Calendar:
• Avoid new entries around high‑impact news releases (red‑icon events).
BTCUSD 15MIN ORBTrading strategy on BTCUSD, I've made this to start helping myself with my journey & control. I started on the 2nd of august 2024. I will be sharing my trades plus what I think price will be doing next, mainly on XAUUSD BTCUSD, I'm open to any advice or constructive criticism as this will only help me going forward. this is my first video and will be trading a 10k funded
BITCOIN BEARISH TRADE IDEA (H1)BTC/USD has been rejected at the resistance zone of $85,148-$85,714, which aligns with a descending trendline, signaling potential bearish momentum. The price is currently testing an ascending trendline from $74,000.
Analysis
The rejection at $85,148-$85,714, combined with the descending trendline, indicates strong selling pressure at this level.
The ascending trendline is providing support, but a break below it could lead to a move toward lower support levels.
A break above the resistance zone would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest potential bullish continuation.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $85,148-$85,714
Support: Around $81,410
Ascending trendline: A break below is an extra confirmation for bearish momentum.
Rationale
The confluence of the resistance zone and the descending trendline marks a critical decision point. The recent rejection strengthens the bearish outlook, but the ascending trendline remains a pivotal factor for the next move.
BTCUSD 4/20/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a beautiful, orchestrated analysis of Prices past endeavors, to Precisely determine Bitcoin's next move.
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