BTCUSDT - near to his resistance ? What's next??#BTCUSDT - market just placed his resistance area and now market trade below that.
Keep close that and if market holds current high then we can expect a drop from here.
Good luck
Trade wisely
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTC Follows Global Money Supply (M2) ?It seems that the BTC price mimics the movement of the global money supply (M2) with a lag of several weeks (around 80–90 days).
With the current M2 top, and assuming BTC truly follows M2, the BTC price could reach around $133K.
If M2 makes a new top, BTC could surpass $133K.
What if bitcoin breaks above this decade long resistancePrice action for the last 12 years on the logarithmic scale reveals a resistance trend-line that has been containing bitcoin's cycle gains from a % perspective. Similar to when we have "M"s forming against a frequently tested level of support before we see sell-offs, the opposite is true as we continue to test the upper range of this resistance trend line. A break of the trendline would also support that bitcoin is following the technology adoption s-curve. Degrading trust in traditional world economic systems only acts as a potential catalyst for massive fiat money devaluation and the transfer of the world economic order to a new technology stack.
$215k Oct '25 Or something like that :) Also golden cross :)I like drawing these lines for fun, let's see if we hit this time :)
Notice the golden cross and what invariable happens after it.
BTCUSD(SHORTS) TRADE RECAP (05/05)A -1% on BTCUSD. A clean LR position right here. Onto the next trade...
BTCUSD technical analysis.The fourth chart you uploaded shows the BTC/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe, as displayed on TradingView.
Key Observations:
1. Consolidation Breakout:
The green box on the left indicates a consolidation phase between approximately 95,000 and 96,000.
After the breakout above this range, the price surged significantly, indicating strong bullish momentum.
2. Support and Resistance:
The chart shows a resistance breakout at around 98,000, leading to a sharp upward move.
A gray demand zone is marked around 96,000, suggesting potential support if the price pulls back.
3. Current Price Action:
The price has reached around 101,188, displaying a gain of 4.26%.
The pattern indicates potential short-term consolidation or a minor pullback to the newly established support before a further upward move.
4. Possible Scenario:
The chart suggests a possible retracement towards the new support zone before continuing the bullish trend.
Analysis:
The overall sentiment appears bullish, but after a strong upward move, some consolidation or a minor correction might take place before continuing the uptrend.
Would you like suggestions on managing positions or spotting potential re-entry points?
Bitcoin: The Path To 109K Is Now Open.In my previous article I describe the potential breakout if 88K was compromised. I pointed out, the compound double bottom in the 74 to 78K area implied a greater probability of price breaking out, it was just a matter of catalyst. IF anything this possibility should have told you that swing trade shorts are a lower probability and much riskier within that resistance zone. For those of you looking for precise calls, eventually you will learn there is no such thing, because markets adjust to new information as it becomes available but we can assign loose probabilities to scenarios. So what technical possibilities are we looking at for the upcoming week and how will this shape our expectations?
On my chart, the updated anticipated scenario (See illustration) points to a retrace back to the 90K area which is NOW a support. Since the broader trend is bullish it is within reason to expect this support to HOLD and NOT break. That means it is an ideal location for high probability swing trade longs UPON confirmation. Watch 93,250 break (see blue arrow) to confirm price is following the retrace scenario (break of previous candle low). IF this is not broken, then the retrace scenario is NOT in play.
Another fact I want to point out is a new minor impulse structure is now in effect (it is not numbered on the chart). The move from the 74K low to the current high contains 3 waves which means the next retrace is likely Wave 4 which would then open the possibility for the Wave 5 breakout beyond the 95K area. Wave 4 to 5 is the highest probability wave to anticipate because it requires 3 waves to be in place and has to adhere to the Wave 1 overlap rule. While this does not offer a specific setup to trade, it does help to shape a clear expectation. All you need from there is a system or method to confirm the bullish reversal (like the Trade Scanner Pro).
Other than that, If Bitcoin manages to maintain the support above 90K, this new rally may be the broader Wave 5 that I have talked about previously which implies a test of 109K over the next quarter. Again this is a game of gauging potential and then quantifying the risk that is associated with it. That is only the beginning of the trade idea because from there you must have a decision making process in place to manage the trade in a constantly CHANGING environment. IF you fail to have such a process then you face random results.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: 1H Death Cross might be dangerous but expect $100k if inBitcoin remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.614, MACD = 2557.800, ADX = 37.923) despite the correction since Friday's high. This is because the underlying pattern is a Bullish Megaphone which just bottomed. On the other hand, the 1H timeframe just formed a Death Cross. If this is invalidated and the price remains inside the Bullish Megaphone (also see that the 1H RSI is on a Bullish Divergence), we can see $100k on the next leg up (1.5 Fib extension like the 2 HH before). If the Bullish Megaphone breaks, testing the 1D MA200 at least, is veyr likely.
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Temporal Aspect of FractalityIn this publication, I would like to bring some clarity to the series of my unconventional analysis.
At this stage of my research I have no doubt that market's natural growth patterns can be defined by historic range and power exponents of Phi. Essentially, it's just two overall fib channels that cover structural boundaries of bullruns from ATH to new ATH mapped to bottom as 3rd coordinate. When we have angle of fibs derived from chronological highs, the ratios would cover the levels of oscillation from price scale perspective.
Whereas the temporal aspect of fractality, requires looking for frequency of reversals in price dynamics. So instead of connecting pivots of same classification, we interconnect opposite points of extremes in order to tune fib direction to the angle of trend and map 3 coordinate to next swing point. This way the spacings that come with the fib proportions would indicate rhythm of trend occurrence.
The primary objective of this publication is to expose traders to the forces underlying market behavior. Specifically for illustrating temporal rhythms, the end result seen in interactive chart looks like a more simplified version of works i've shared earlier.
BTCUSD Analysis Strategy SignalsCurrent trend: Uptrend inside a Symmetrical Triangle — a strong sell setup has formed.
Entry level: 95,800
Technical Targets:
1st Target: #92,700
2nd Target: #91,700
3rd Target: #88,400
4th Target: #86,600
5th Target: #83,900
A breakdown below the triangle support could trigger a sharp sell-off.
BITCOIN Analysis: Potential Pullback and ContinuationCOINBASE:BTCUSD is currently trading within an ascending channel, reflecting a clear bullish structure. The price may pull back toward the lower boundary of the channel before potentially continuing higher. This dynamic support offers a confluence area for a possible bullish reaction. A successful retest here could open the path for a move toward the $102,000 level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel and represents a logical bullish target.
However, a failure to hold this dynamic support could indicate weakening bullish momentum and may shift the short-term bias to neutral or bearish.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals such as bullish engulfing patterns, strong rejection wicks at the lower trendline, or increasing volume on the bounce before considering long positions.
Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently! 🚀
Bitcoin Short Term Top(update)Bitcoin has completed wave 1 of a bigger 5 wave move up. Expecting a correction to the $84,000 zone before a huge move up.
Bitcoin has a strong bullish momentum, could it rise further?The price is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 92,947.86
1st Support: 88,510.65
1st Resistance: 99,514.34
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Bitcoin: holds, but slowing downThere are two major events which marked the previous week. One is related to the Chinese government, which openly noted that they are considering entering into negotiations with the US Administration regarding the ongoing “trade war”, noting the absurdity of the currently imposed tax of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on goods imported from the US. The other news was related to the US macro data and stronger than expected jobs data posted during the previous week. The market was relieved that the US economy is obviously not entering into recession, which was their worst fear during the previous period. All these, currently positive news supported optimism on financial markets, including the riskier assets, like BTC.
The price of BTC continues to move toward the higher grounds during the week. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, after the jobs report, at the level of $97,8K. The price eased a bit during the Saturdays trading session, currently trading around $96,2K. The RSI continues to move close to the overbought market side, ending the week around the level of 67. This would be usually a clear signal in technical analysis that the potential reversal is coming, however, at this moment it might happen only if strong demand is put on a halt. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are currently moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend.
The volatility might continue also during the week ahead. It should be strongly considered that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 6-7, where Fed officials will decide on the course on interest rates. What the market is currently expecting to hear from Fed Chair Powell is the Fed's view on the potential negative consequences of imposed trade tariffs. This might have a strong implication on investors sentiment and bring back volatility on the market. At this point, BTC is slowing down. Whether this is only temporary, will be much clearer during the week ahead. As per current charts, the level of $ 98K is the next historically significant resistance line. There is some potential that the BTC might try to test this level in the coming period. However, if the market turns to the down side, then the $95K might be the next level, on its road toward the $92K.
BITCOIN This is where the real BULL started in 2017.We've mentioned on numerous occasions how Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle resembles that of 2014 - 2017 and this evidence is self-explanatory on the chart. What we want to bring forward today, and the timing couldn't be better, is that symmetrically speaking, it was the exact same time of the year (April 2017) when the past Cycle started printing predominantly green candles that lasted until the very end of 2017 (December) and the Cycle Top.
The 3W RSI sequences are identical among the two fractals with a Pivot trend-line dominating both Cycles, first as a Resistance (red arrows) and then turned into Support (green arrows). Before the end-of-year Parabolic Rally, the Bull Cycle was classified into 3 pull-back/ consolidation Phases (blue Rectangles) and, no surprise, the mini rallies started around the same times.
Can this indicate that we are about to see a strong rally of predominantly green candles towards the end of the year to form the new Cycle High? What do you think?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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104.2k was BTC top for a REASON: Golden Covid fib calling itHere we are again testing the ATH levels.
This time we got an EXACT hit on the fib.
Golden Fibs are always strong as proven.
$104,235 (Coinbase) is the exact level
$ 95,176 is a possible retrace target.
$120,295 is next target if we break out.
It is PROBABLE that we Orbit this fib for a while.
It is POSSIBLE that we break and run to next fib.
It is PLAUSIBLE to be a Lower-High TOP for a while.
Please hit the BOOST to encourage more posts.
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Previous Plots below
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$105k top call:
75k Retrace targeted EXACTLY
97.8k Breakout Call
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Watching for 88.5-89KMorning folks,
So, upside spike has happened and our 3-Drive + butterfly patterns are done. Although we haven't got continuation to 98K area that also was on a table.
Now short-term sentiment has changed. Recent data shows that the Fed doesn't need to hurry up with rate cut, yields turns up, so BTC also could follow the common tendency with deeper retracement.
This is the reason why we do not consider any longs today. As a nearest area that might be reached we consider 88.5-89K support.
So, for bulls it is nothing to do. If you're intraday trader, you could consider bearish positions from predefined Fib levels on the picture. 3-Drive hasn't reached its target yet, so 92.5-93K area still could be reached...
BTCUSD bullish momentum continuesBTCUSD bullish momentum continues. It may retrace for a while before uptrend continues.
a bull trap?A bull trap in trading refers to a situation where a stock or other asset appears to be breaking out upwards, attracting buyers (thinking it's going to continue rising), but then the price reverses and starts to fall. Essentially, it's a false signal of an upward trend, tricking traders into thinking it's safe to buy, only for the price to drop soon after.
Here’s how it typically works:
Upward Movement: The asset experiences a strong price movement to the upside, making it look like a breakout.
Fake Confirmation: Traders interpret this as a signal that the asset is starting a new bullish trend, so they jump in to buy.
Sudden Reversal: After a short period of gains, the price reverses direction and starts to drop, trapping the traders who bought in.
Losses: The traders who entered during the "trap" are now stuck with losses, as they bought at the higher price and the asset's value starts to fall.
Bull traps are a danger to traders who rely on technical indicators or breakouts without confirming broader market conditions. It's important to wait for confirmation signals before jumping in on a trade, as bull traps can lead to significant losses if not recognized early.
Watch out zone this support zone if the price of bitcoin can hold abot 92589 we can see that the price of Bitcoin is bullish
breaking down this area we may see retest down to 85k level
102.5K nearest upside target. 110K is the next oneMorning folks,
So, the pullback to 88-89K area that we discussed last time has not happened. Market turns to direct upside continuation. Now it has no big barriers ahead, which means that 110K is the major target for now.
On Intraday charts we have another one - 102.5K which is the nearest one. We consider no shorts by far. For long entry you could use any deep that you would like to. We suggest that 97.50-98K area is quite suitable for this. Deeper retracement will look suspicious.
BTCUSD: The catching up to Gold has started.Bitcoin is having an excellent day turning almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.867, MACD = 3107.700, ADX = 41.327) and that is normally a signal for more upside to come. Adding Gold to the mix, we see that in recent past when Gold topped, Bitcoin was at the start of its uptrend and eventually caught up to Gold. Today's rise is probably similar to early November 2024, so we expect another 1.5 - 2 month upside before the next short term pullback.
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Bitcoin, ATHs test on the Horizon.Niiiiiiiice, After a nice run up from the Weekly and Daily pov confirming a test to the ATHs is on the horizon.
Now that we have the EMAs in sync with price is TIME for a retrace to test the 55ema (orange line) and then bounce to continue higher.
Even if price drops to the $84k line the UPtrend will still intact.
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen ATHs and above is on the horizon.
