BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
BTC/USD 1D Chart📊 1. Technical formation: Downtrend channel marked with orange lines
Upper trend line (resistance): ~108,200 – 110,000 USD
Lower trend line (support): ~98,455 – 97,000 USD
➡️ Such a formation usually ends with a breakout. The direction of the breakout will be key – currently, the price is testing the upper resistance line.
💵 2. Support and resistance levels
📈 Resistance:
108.202 – currently tested
112.037 – psychological level
114.816 – local top
📉 Support:
105.300 – SMA 50 + local support
103.424 – local lows
100.510 – key psychological support
98.455 – lower edge of the triangle
📉 3. Moving averages (SMA)
SMA 50 (green): currently as dynamic support (~105.300)
SMA 200 (blue): far below the price (~96.000), inactive in the short term
SMA 20 (red): price broke through it upwards – a signal of bullish strength
➡️ A bullish crossover took place between SMA 20 and SMA 50 → bullish signal.
📉 4. MACD (Momentum)
MACD line is approaching the intersection with the signal line from below.
The histogram is becoming less and less red → a potential intersection and a bullish crossover signal may occur any day now.
📉 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently: 57.19
RSI is rising and approaching the overbought zone (70), but it is not overheated yet.
Exceeding 60 would be a signal of further bullish strength.
🔍 6. Volume and context
There is no volume marking on the candles, but:
The current bullish candle is strong and breaks through the key averages (SMA 20, 50).
This indicates buyer activity with technical support.
🟢 Bullish scenario (if a breakout occurs up)
A breakout above 108.200 with a close of the daily candle could open the way to:
112.037 (next resistance)
then even 114.816
🔴 Bearish scenario (false breakout)
A rejection from 108.200 and a drop below 105.300 → a possible return to:
103.424 or even 98.455 (lower triangle line)
BTC/USD Potential Short Trade Setup - Detailed AnalysisThis chart indicates a potential short trade opportunity, where the price is approaching a key resistance zone. The current market scenario suggests a possible reversal or downward movement, especially if the price reacts to the sell zone ($107,495) and begins to decline.
Trade Parameters:
Sell Zone: $107,495
Stop Loss: $110,438 (Placed slightly above the resistance zone to account for any unexpected breakout)
Take Profit Targets:
1. Take Profit 1: $105,224 (Initial support level)
2. Take Profit 2: $102,465 (Second key support level for further downward movement)
3. Take Profit 3: $99,099 (Final target level)
Target Zone: $98,723 (A critical area for further downside potential)
Technical Analysis:
The price is currently in a strong resistance area where sellers have previously taken control.
A break below the sell zone could lead to a move towards the indicated targets.
RSI and other technical indicators suggest the market is approaching overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a downward move.
Risk and Reward Ratio:
This setup offers a balanced risk-reward ratio. Ensure the stop loss is strictly adhered to in order to protect against any unexpected movements.
Bitcoin at the Edge: Breakdown or Bounce?Bitcoin is currently trading around $101,210, having failed to reclaim the $102,500 support zone, which has now flipped into resistance.
This rejection confirms continued bearish momentum, as reflected in the downward-trending EMA.
The next major area of interest lies between $96,000 and $95,000, where buyers previously stepped in. The chart suggests a probable move lower into this zone, followed by a potential bounce.
Unless BTC reclaims $102,500 with strong conviction, the short-term bias remains bearish, with traders eyeing the lower support for possible reversal or accumulation.
BTC Consolidates Above Pivot – Bullish Momentum Toward 113,770?BITCOIN OVERVIEW
Crypto Breakout or Crash? Powell's July Message Becomes the Deciding Factor
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill has intensified the uncertainty surrounding risk assets.
He emphasized that while inflation has eased significantly since mid-2022, it remains “somewhat elevated”, and the Fed is in no rush to shift its policy stance.
This leaves markets with a binary outcome: crypto breakout or macro-driven pullback—and July may be the turning point.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – BTC/USD
Bitcoin remains in bullish momentum, having stabilized above the pivot level at 107,750.
The price is currently pushing toward the key resistance zone between 108,950 and 110,360.
A breakout above this zone would likely lead to continuation toward the next ATH target at 113,770.
However, consolidation is expected between 108,950 and 106,320 until a breakout occurs.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 107,750
Resistance: 108,950 → 110,360 → 113,770
Support: 106,320 → 104,150
2/1/15I’ve found a fractal on Bitcoin. Today is June 25, 2025, 13:22 — I’m analyzing the 2-hour timeframe from the high on May 22 up to today, and the same pattern of pre-accumulation is forming as in 2024, from March 13 to July 29, 2024.
We are also inside a pattern I named “Dragon’s Wings.” It forms two peaks at the highs after a strong rally, and the shared low between them creates a deep retracement.
Whether this pattern leads to the beginning of a major drop and a bear cycle, or whether it’s a pre-accumulation structure in a buffer zone, depends on the area in which it forms.
In this case, the 93–74K zone is potentially a re-accumulation zone, with a reversal to the upside — possibly taking Bitcoin above $140,000.
BTCUSD – Price Approaching The Edge of the Channel📍 BTCUSD – Price Approaching The Edge of the Channel
Bitcoin has surged sharply from the lower boundary of its descending channel and is now reaching another “Edge” — the upper resistance line.
🎯 Two Key Scenarios:
🟩 Bullish Breakout: A clear breakout above ~$108,000 with strong volume could initiate a new leg toward $111K and beyond
🟨 Bearish Rejection: Failure to break the channel may lead to a corrective wave back toward $103K or lower
This is a classic "decision point" — where market structure and momentum meet supply and resistance.
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#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TheEdge #ChannelTrading #EMA #BitcoinResistance #MJTrading #CryptoSetup #SwingTrade #MarketStructure #BreakoutOrRejection #KeyLevel #TrendWatch
BTC?USD - Bullish Channel Holding StrongBitcoin is currently respecting a well-formed ascending channel on the 5-minute chart. After multiple tests of both the upper and lower boundaries, the price continues to trade within this bullish structure. This consistent higher-high, higher-low formation indicates that short-term momentum remains with the bulls.
📌 Key Observations:
Price is bouncing off the lower boundary of the channel – strong short-term support.
Midline (dashed) is acting as a dynamic reaction zone for intraday movement.
The red horizontal line at 106,135 marks a key support level from a prior breakout zone.
A potential re-test of the upper boundary near 107,200 could be on the cards if this structure holds.
💡 Trade Idea:
Long bias remains valid as long as price stays inside the channel.
Watch for a breakout above the channel for potential continuation.
A breakdown below the channel and 106,135 could invalidate the bullish setup.
BTC RAGINGBitcoin continues its rally, now pushing toward $107K after a sharp three-day surge. The key development here was a sweep of the range lows just below $100,000, where price wicked down, flushed weak hands, and immediately reversed with authority. That fakeout move set the stage for a strong bounce, triggering what now looks like a classic deviation below support.
From there, Bitcoin ripped higher, reclaiming the critical $105,787 horizontal level and flipping it into support. That level had acted as resistance for much of June, capping upside progress — but now that price is holding above it, the breakout has legs. Importantly, the move also reclaimed the 50-day moving average, further solidifying the bullish case.
Volume is ticking higher as well, adding confirmation to the price action. As long as Bitcoin holds above $105,787, the next upside target sits clearly at $112,000 — the swing high from earlier this month. A breakout above that level could open the door to fresh highs and renewed momentum.
If, however, price falls back below $105K, this rally risks turning into a failed breakout — with a potential revisit to the $100K area. But for now, structure has shifted back in favor of the bulls, and the sweep of sub-$100K lows looks like it successfully reset the market.
Chart Pattern Analysis of Bitcoin.
K4 close at high price area, but still failed to close upon the downtrend line,
If K5 close upon the line,
The strong bullish momentum will be verified here,
And the market will accelerate to test or break up 112K area.
It is also possible that the market consolidate around the downtrend line,
And days later, it chose to break up or fall down.
If I didn’t bought it earlier,
I will not buy it here.
It is still possible that the following candles fall to test 101K or 103K area.
I will try to buy it there.
BTC Short Re-entry with beautifull RR/Stop loss.Who follow our community know this trade story already- We got BE stoppage and now is most beautifull opportunity to make SHORT trade with very good RR / Stop loss.
If we will not see fast De-escalation with Middle East conflict we are going to 93k easy!
#BTCUSDT
We are reentering.
ENTRY: 105586
SL: 107262
TP: 96166.8
Follow me and you will see more and more good trade ideas
Please don't use big leverages and be carefull!
BITCOIN SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 104,672.03
Target Level: 107,484.65
Stop Loss: 102,785.72
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
BITCOIN BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 105,952.89
Target Level: 102,605.64
Stop Loss: 108,184.39
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 4h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Bitcoin Targets $105K as Portfolio Share Soars But...
The year 2025 is proving to be a watershed moment for Bitcoin. The world's premier cryptocurrency has solidified its position as the bedrock of digital asset portfolios, now accounting for nearly one-third of all holdings, a testament to its growing acceptance as a legitimate macro-asset. Yet, this rising dominance belies a fractured and complex market landscape. While institutional giants and sovereign wealth funds systematically increase their Bitcoin allocations, a counter-current is flowing through the retail sector, where investors are rotating into high-potential altcoins, spurred on by the promise of new investment vehicles. This bifurcation is unfolding against a backdrop of dramatic price swings, conflicting technical forecasts, and a potent mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts, painting a picture of a market at a pivotal crossroads.
The headline statistic is striking: as of mid-2025, Bitcoin's share in investor crypto portfolios has climbed to nearly 31%, a significant increase from the previous year. This growth has persisted through months of volatility, including harrowing dips below the psychological $100,000 mark and powerful rallies reclaiming levels above $105,000. The market is being pulled in opposing directions. On one hand, bullish tailwinds are gathering force. A ceasefire in the Middle East has calmed geopolitical jitters, restoring appetite for risk assets. Simultaneously, hints from the U.S. Federal Reserve of a potential July interest rate cut have investors anticipating a surge of liquidity into the market.
However, a sense of unease permeates the technical charts. Some analysts warn of a "final crash" still to come, drawing parallels to the market structure of 2021. On-chain analysis has identified the $97,000 to $98,000 range as a critical market pivot, a line in the sand that could determine the next major trend. Meanwhile, other models, like the Elliott Wave count, predict a corrective crash to as low as $94,000 before any new highs can be sustainably achieved.
This is the story of Bitcoin in 2025: a maturing asset cementing its institutional role while navigating the turbulent waters of retail speculation, macroeconomic shifts, and its own volatile price cycles. The journey toward becoming a third of all crypto holdings has not been a straight line, but a dramatic tug-of-war that will define the future of the digital asset class.
Part 1: The 31% Benchmark - Bitcoin's Ascendant Portfolio Dominance
The steady climb of Bitcoin to nearly 31% of investor portfolios is the defining trend of 2025. This figure, a cornerstone of market analysis this year, underscores a profound shift in investor conviction. Through a period marked by six-figure price tags and gut-wrenching volatility, the average investor has not been scared away but has instead deepened their commitment to the original cryptocurrency. This suggests a maturing "buy the dip" mentality, where price corrections are increasingly viewed not as a crisis, but as an opportunity to accumulate a long-term store of value.
The primary engine behind this trend is unmistakable: institutional adoption. The floodgates, first opened by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, have become a torrent of institutional capital in 2025. Sovereign wealth funds, major financial institutions, and public companies are now systematically accumulating Bitcoin, treating it as a core component of their treasury and investment strategies. Observations of institutional trading desks indicate this buying pressure from large-scale investors intensified in the first half of the year, even as retail activity showed signs of slowing. This institutional stamp of approval is reflected in the growing number of Bitcoins held in various corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds.
This institutional embrace of Bitcoin has been fueled by several factors. First, an increasingly innovation-friendly regulatory environment in the United States has provided the clarity that large, compliance-focused firms require. Second, Bitcoin’s performance has been undeniable. Following recent shifts in the political landscape, Bitcoin has outperformed many major global assets, including stocks, treasuries, and precious metals, solidifying its reputation as a powerful portfolio diversifier.
This "flight to quality" within the crypto space has also created a distinct rotation story. As institutions fortify their Bitcoin positions, they appear to be de-risking by moving away from more speculative assets that were darlings of the previous cycle. The most notable casualty of this shift has been Solana. Once a high-flyer, Solana's narrative has "cooled" in 2025. Its portfolio weight among investors has seen a sharp decline since late 2024, as institutional capital pivots toward assets with perceived staying power and clearer narratives. While some analysts see this cooling phase as a potential accumulation opportunity before a new leg up, the dominant trend has been a rotation out of Solana and into the perceived safety of Bitcoin.
Part 2: The Great Divide - A Tale of Two Investors
The crypto market of 2025 is characterized by a stark divergence in strategy between its two main cohorts: institutional players and retail investors. While their actions collectively push Bitcoin's portfolio share higher, their underlying motivations and asset choices paint a picture of two different worlds.
The Institutional Playbook: Slow, Steady, and Strategic
For institutions, Bitcoin has become the undisputed king. Their approach is methodical and long-term, driven by a desire for a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset that acts as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. The attributes of scarcity, immutability, and portability are paramount in their decision-making. The advent of regulated products like spot ETFs has been a game-changer, providing a familiar and secure access ramp for deploying significant capital.
These large players are not chasing the explosive 100x gains that define crypto lore. Instead, they seek sustained, risk-adjusted returns from an asset that is increasingly uncorrelated with traditional markets during times of stress. Their strategy is one of accumulation, and their exit from more volatile altcoins like Solana is a clear signal of a de-risking mandate. They are building foundational positions in the asset they view as "digital gold," positioning themselves for a future where Bitcoin is a standard component of diversified global portfolios.
The Retail Rebellion: Chasing the Next Big Narrative
In stark contrast, retail investors appear to be reducing their direct Bitcoin holdings. This is not necessarily a rejection of Bitcoin's value, but rather a strategic reallocation of capital toward what they perceive as the next frontier of high growth. Having witnessed Bitcoin's journey to a multi-trillion-dollar asset, many retail participants are now hunting for "the next Bitcoin"—assets with a lower market capitalization but a powerful, near-term catalyst that could trigger exponential gains.
Part 3: The Analyst's Crystal Ball - Price Targets and Technical Tremors
Navigating the Bitcoin market in 2025 requires a steady hand and a tolerance for conflicting signals. While macro-environmental factors are painting a bullish picture, technical and on-chain analyses are flashing cautionary signs, creating a tense equilibrium between hope and fear.
The Bullish Case: A Confluence of Catalysts
The bulls have strong reasons for optimism. A key level on every trader's chart is $105,000. This price is seen as a critical "trend switch"; a decisive break and hold above this zone would signal the end of the recent consolidation and the beginning of a new, powerful phase of the bull market. This optimism is underpinned by powerful external forces.
First, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been signaling a potential interest rate cut as early as July. Historically, lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional yielding assets like bonds, pushing investors toward riskier, high-growth assets. This injection of liquidity into the financial system has often preceded significant rallies in Bitcoin, and the market is pricing in this possibility.
Second, a significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions has bolstered market confidence. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran caused an immediate and positive reaction in risk assets. Bitcoin surged past $105,000 on the news, demonstrating its sensitivity to global stability. During times of acute conflict, markets often experience a flight to safety, but when tensions ease, that capital flows back into assets like Bitcoin, which thrive on renewed risk appetite.
The Bearish Counterpoint: Echoes of the Past and On-Chain Warnings
Despite the bullish macro-outlook, clouds remain on the horizon. Some market commentators are warning that the current market is mirroring the patterns of 2021, suggesting that one "final crash" may be necessary to flush out leverage and establish a firm bottom before a sustainable move to new all-time highs.
This thesis is supported by specific technical models. Proponents of Elliott Wave Theory, a method of analysis that posits markets move in predictable, repetitive wave patterns, suggest a significant correction is due. Some Elliott Wave counts predict a corrective move down to the $94,000 level, which would represent a substantial pullback from current prices. Such a move would be seen as a healthy, albeit painful, corrective wave before a final, explosive impulse higher.
Adding weight to this cautious outlook is deep on-chain analysis. A close look at blockchain data pinpoints the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as the market's next true "pivot." This range represents a massive concentration of supply where a large volume of Bitcoin was previously acquired. This means a large cohort of investors has a cost basis in this zone. As the price approaches this level from below, it will likely meet significant selling pressure from investors looking to break even. A failure to decisively break through this wall of supply could trigger a sharp rejection and validate the bearish corrective scenarios.
The Derivatives Dilemma: A Market in Flux
Further complicating the picture is the state of the Bitcoin derivatives market. Reports indicate that futures buying activity has declined sharply, suggesting that the speculative fervor that often fuels rallies may be waning. This can be interpreted in two ways. The bearish view is that speculators are losing confidence, and the market lacks the momentum for a continued push higher. However, a more bullish interpretation is that the market is purging excessive leverage, creating a more stable foundation for a rally built on spot buying—the very kind of buying being done by institutions. This faltering derivatives activity, contrasted with strong institutional spot accumulation, could mean the current rally is in "stronger hands" than previous, more speculative-driven cycles.
Part 4: The Broader Ecosystem - A Story of Diverging Fates
The cross-currents shaping Bitcoin's trajectory are creating ripple effects across the entire crypto ecosystem, with the diverging fortunes of XRP and Solana serving as perfect case studies for the market's 2025 themes.
Beyond the Majors: The Speculative Fringe
As always, the crypto market maintains a speculative fringe. The emergence of assets like "BTC Bull Tokens" represents the high-leverage, high-risk plays that appear during bull markets. These instruments are designed to offer amplified returns on Bitcoin's price movements and attract the most risk-tolerant traders. Their existence underscores the full spectrum of the market—from sovereign wealth funds methodically buying Bitcoin for their treasuries to degens betting on leveraged tokens, the digital asset ecosystem remains a place of immense diversity and opportunity.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's Maturation in a Fractured Market
The year 2025 will be remembered as the year Bitcoin truly came of age as an institutional asset, firmly planting its flag and claiming one-third of the crypto investment landscape. This growing dominance, driven by the steady, strategic accumulation of the world's largest financial players, has provided a powerful anchor in a volatile market.
Yet, this newfound maturity has not tamed the market's wild spirit. It has instead created a great divide. While institutions build their Bitcoin fortress, retail investors are on the hunt for the next narrative-driven explosion, pouring capital into assets like XRP with the hope of front-running a transformative ETF approval.
The market is consequently balanced on a knife's edge. Bullish macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds are pushing for a breakout to new all-time highs beyond the pivotal $105,000 level. At the same time, technical and on-chain analyses warn of a potential final washout, a corrective crash to the mid-$90,000s that may be necessary to reset the market for a sustainable ascent.
Bitcoin's path forward will be carved by the resolution of these opposing forces. Can the quiet, persistent demand from institutions absorb the selling pressure from short-term traders and navigate the technical resistance zones? Or will the speculative fervor and corrective patterns that have defined its past cycles pull it down once more before it can climb higher? Whatever the outcome, 2025 has made one thing clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative digital curiosity. It is a global macro asset at the heart of a complex and evolving financial ecosystem, and its journey is far from over.
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Range Bound with Bearish BiasFrom the 4 - hour chart of BTCUSD, the price movement shows obvious range - bound fluctuation characteristics 📊.
Currently, it is necessary to focus on the key resistance and support zones 🎯:
From a technical perspective, BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the range in the near term 🔄, yet the overall trend leans bearish 🐻.
In the short term, opportunities for buying low and selling high within the range can be monitored 📈📉
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@106500 - 105500
🚀 TP 104500 - 103500
🚀 Buy@102500 - 103500
🚀 TP 104500 - 105500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
BTCUSD Bullish continuation pattern support at 101,780Trend Overview:
BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 101,780 (primary pivot), followed by 100,380 and 98,184
Resistance: 109,170 (initial), then 111,600 and 114.140
Technical Outlook:
A pullback to the 101,780 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 109,170, 111,600, and ultimately 114,140.
Conversely, a daily close below 101,780 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 100.390 and 98,180 as downside levels.
Conclusion:
BTCUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 101,780 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 109,170 area. A breakdown below 101,780, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
$BTC Weekend Update - The Revenge of the BearsHello Fellow Gamblers,
Bears are in total control of BTC and are dragging the price lower and lower. Our 1st target has been hit so my eyes are now turning towards our 2nd target right above 93k. In the Video I talk about a possible Target 3 that could happen if we break below 93k.
- I am currently watching for a possible move up towards 103k to fill any FVG previously opened, I might be early but it is never early enough to be mentally prepared for it.
- I expect an accumulation to happen above 93k. That would lead us to a reversal and continuation of the bullish trend.
- Levels to watch: 93.1k, 97.5k,101k, 103.4k, 106.6k.
BUY BTCUSDBitcoin (BTC/USD) is showing signs of a strong bullish reversal off a major demand zone at $98,000.**
If price holds above this level and confirms with continued bullish candles, the likely trajectory is toward the resistance zone around $110,000–$111,200.
The forecast structure suggests a clean trend recovery pattern. However, manage risk tightly — as a breakdown below the demand zone could flip the narrative to bearish.