BTC levels to watch for a breakoutMarkets are quiet, and Bitcoin is coiling. A potential breakout looms as we await the President’s Working Group crypto update by July 23. Will positive news trigger a rally to $121,000? Watch for key levels and triangle patterns.
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BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
Btcusd Fall ContinuesBitcoin (BTC) tumbled to a low of $101,095 on Friday amid volatility in the market. The effect of the tussle between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Tesla Chief Elon Musk negatively influenced the NASDAQ and Tesla's stock price on Thursday, although both are recovering on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 2-Hour Candlestick Chart2-hour candlestick price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) as of June 20, 2025. The current price is $106,004.49, reflecting a 2-hour increase of $1,317.33 (+1.26%). The chart highlights a recent upward trend with a support level around $105,082.06 and resistance near $108,009.17. A shaded area indicates a potential price range, with a bullish projection suggested by the overlaid trendline.
BTC SHORT TP:102,200 18-06-2025Let’s keep it simple: this pump looks fake.
I’m entering SHORT between 104,550 and 105,500, aiming for a target between 101,300 and 102,300. Average RR: 3.4 — solid and clean.
⏱️ Timeframe: 2H
⏳ Estimated duration: 12 to 24 hours
⚠️ Context: Bearish continuation — let’s ride the wave, not the noise.
Use your stop-loss based on your risk strategy. If price doesn’t move within the expected time, the setup is invalid.
We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
BITCOIN This is the long-term picture. Don't get distracted.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating lately after making a new All Time High (ATH) last month and this is already making part of the market nervous over whether that's the Cycle Top or not.
This is one of those times when it would be best to ignore the short-term noise/ volatility and stick to the long-term picture. And that's exactly what's shown on this chart, with BTC on the 1M time-frame showing the incredible symmetry among its 4-year Cycles, with Bear Markets lasting 12 - 13 months and Bull Markets 35.
Based on that, this Cycle's Top is expected to be priced by October (2025). This also matches the Sine Waves as implied by the 1M RSI, which as been trading within a Channel Down (diminishing returns) since Bitcoin's inception.
So do you also think that we have around 4 months before the market tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Market Shockwaves: DXY Surges, Gold Slips & Bitcoin Tests $100K This week delivered powerful market moves as the U.S. Dollar roared higher, gold struggled under macro pressure, and Bitcoin teetered on the $100K edge. In this must-watch market recap, we break down the key economic events, geopolitical tensions, and technical signals that drove DXY, XAUUSD, and BTCUSD — and more importantly, what it all means for the week ahead.
🔍 In this video, we cover:
✅ Why the dollar is rebounding and what’s fueling its strength
✅ The real reason gold is under pressure despite global risk
✅ Bitcoin’s next move: breakdown or bounce?
✅ Key levels and events to watch as we close out this week
✅ What traders and investors should prepare for next week
Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or just watching the macro landscape — this recap gives you the edge.
👉 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for weekly insights!
#DXY #Gold #Bitcoin #MarketRecap #TradingInsights #MacroTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
Bitcoin Consolidates Liquidity Around $105,000FenzoFx—Bitcoin is trading sideways near $104,650 after a sharp drop from $109,000, forming a high-liquidity zone with potential for a breakout.
The $102,746–105,266 range shows strong accumulation, offering support. BTC remains bullish above the previous week's low, but must close above the previous day's high to resume its uptrend.
BITCOIN, trend outlook for this summerWhile the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements, including a major technical risk and two factors that are, on the contrary, favorable to a new record this summer.
1) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving is still long
Let's start with the cyclical aspect of bitcoin, the famous 4-year cycle built around the quadrennial halving. The last halving took place in April 2024, and if the cycle repetition works again, then the current cycle is due to end at the end of 2025. So there's still time for bitcoin to set a new record, even if it comes under short-term pressure - it still has 5 months to go.
The first chart below summarizes the 4-year cycle by averaging the time and price of all previous cycles since 2009. Our current cycle is represented by the red curve, and in terms of probability, the end of the cycle is expected between October and December 2025.
There's still time, and this is the first major piece of information in our article.
2) A bearish technical divergence in weekly data calls for great caution
On the other hand, technical analysis of the bitcoin price in weekly data gives a warning signal with the presence of a bearish price/momentum divergence, market momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator.
This bearish divergence resembles that at the end of the previous cycle in November 2021, but the comparison stops here. At that time, all end-of-cycle models were on alert, but this is not the case today. Nevertheless, we must be aware that this bearish divergence could be a pressure factor this summer.
3) Global liquidity as represented by the M2 monetary aggregate gives grounds for optimism about bitcoin's summer trend
Global M2 deploys a strong positive correlation with the bitcoin price, and it takes an average of 12 weeks for this liquidity to act on BTC. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy.
This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and US dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side).
Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises an essential question: can this momentum be maintained this summer, despite the fundamental challenges of the moment?
Such a hypothesis is plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate. According to the latest available data, global M2 has set a new all-time record, and this is a factor supporting the BTC trend for the first part of the summer.
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BTC Triangle Squeezing Toward $100 K — Sellers Press🎯 TL;DR
A four-week contracting triangle is coiling price just under $105 K.
Measured move ⇒ $100 506
Both W.ARITAS Quantum RSI flash strong selling pressure while QSP shows a weak trend.
On-chain: miners dumped ≈30 000 BTC since late May, yet spot-ETF inflows have stayed positive eight days straight.
Base case: price breaks lower into $100 K-97 K, where I expect a sharp bounce.
🗺️ Chart at a Glance
Element Detail
Pattern Symmetrical / contracting triangle (late-Apr → present)
Immediate pivot $104 800 – reclaimed as resistance (red circle)
Target 1 $100 506 – triangle measured move
Demand block $96 900 – $95 000 – weekly support & June VWAP
Invalidation 6-h close > $106 000
🔧 Technical Internals
Momentum 🟣
Quantum RSI: −23 / −41 and falling → sellers dominate.
QSP: muted blue histogram sub-zero → trend itself is still weak, so expect whipsaws near support.
Structure 🔵
Three successive lower-highs (113 K → 110 K → 109 K) tighten the squeeze.
Price is riding the underside of the triangle, a common “kiss-of-death” before resolution.
🔍 Fundamental / Flow Backdrop
Miners on the offer – Wallet balances down ~30 000 BTC over 20 days (≈ $3.1 B)
Source: IntoTheBlock via CoinDesk, 19 Jun 2025
ETF demand refuses to quit – U.S. spot ETFs pulled $388.3 M on 18 Jun, marking 8 consecutive inflow days
Source: CoinTelegraph, Cryptonomist, 19 Jun 2025
Regulatory clarity incoming – U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan stablecoin bill on 17 Jun; House vote next
Source: Reuters, 17 Jun 2025
Net: structural sellers (miners, profit-takers) vs. structural buyers (ETFs).
Right now, technicals side with the sellers.
📈 Trade Map (3-8 Week Horizon)
106 000 – 104 800 Triangle top & failed breakout zone Bias flips bullish only on sustained reclaim
100 506 Measured-move target + psychological $100 K Primary TP / bounce watch
96 900 – 95 000 Weekly demand, June VWAP Secondary TP if 100 K gives way
110 000 + Pattern invalidation Opens road to 113 K-115 K ATH cluster
🛠️ Execution Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Trigger: 6-hour close < $103 500 confirms breakdown.
Entry Bias: Short retest of 104.8 K-105.5 K.
Targets:
TP1 – $100 500
TP2 – $97 000 (only if momentum stays bearish)
Stop / Invalidation: 6-hour close > $106 000 and Quantum RSI flips back to green.
Expect BTC/USD to drop to 102000 post-Fed rate decisionBTC/USD Update 📈
BTC rebounded from 103500 support, now at ~105500. Short-term correction may test 100000 psychological support ⚠️
I think the Fed's interest rate decision this time may cause BTCUSD to drop directly to 102000 .
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500
🚀 TP 102500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
BTCUSD: Israel-Iran conflict like October 2024.Despite the Middle East tension, Bitcoin remains long term bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 63.167, MACD = 6883.200, ADX = 33.150). It remains supported on its 1D MA50, in fact in the same manner it was during the previous Israel-Iran conflict. I was on October 26th 2024, when Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria. Simila to the June 13th 2025 attacks. It is more than striking how similar the two price patterns are. Assisted by the U.S. elections on November 5th 2024, a massive rally followed the Middle East conflict. A repeat of that may very well send Bitcoin to $150,000 and above.
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Crypto consolidating ahead of rally towards All Time HighsWith US equity markets closed for Juneteenth, I'm checking in on an equal weight basket of cryptos. Recently I said crypto looked to be heating up for a run at new highs.
As I look today, prices appear range bound on the daily chart. There's a bearish double-top formation, beside declining momentum. The bottom of the range resting at the 200 Day Moving Average, and a test of it seems likely.
Should there be a bounce off the 200 Day SMA, and a break through the top end of the range we might get a shot at those new All Time Highs.
BTCUSD – CME Gap Gravity & AVWAP Staircase🕯️ 4H Chart Analysis | June 19, 2025
🎯 Targeting: $93.3K CME Gap | Confluence: AVWAP zones + Structure breaks
Thesis:
We're currently hanging off the edge of a volume profile cliff. Price is coiled beneath a broken rising wedge, hugging the POC from the prior rally. The key idea: liquidity has shifted, and the next high-probability move is a breakdown through key VWAP levels into the CME gap at ~$93.3K.
📉 Funding Shift:
Funding remains slightly negative or flat across major venues — signaling late longs are trapped and paying to hold.
📊 Open Interest Still Elevated:
– Total BTC OI: $69.41B
– CME OI: $16.50B (23.77%)
– Binance OI: $11.67B (16.8%)
– Bybit OI: $7.66B
– OKX OI: $4.02B
– CME is now the largest BTC derivatives venue by notional OI — institutionals dominate this range.
– Despite the recent drop, OI only fell -0.6% (24h) system-wide — leverage still bloated and vulnerable.
💱 CME Basis Compression:
June front-month futures trade only ~$35 above spot — basis compressed to ~0.03%. Carry trade is gone; CME gap below is now magnetic.
🛡️ Macro Narrative: Credential Meltdown
Today marks the largest password leak in digital history (16 billion credentials). If this leads to broader cybersecurity fear, crypto might feel downstream de-risking effects.
📉 Spot vs. Derivatives Skew:
Derivatives OI/volume is high; spot demand remains muted. Suggests price is levitating on leverage — not sustainable without real buyers.
📍 Invalidation Levels:
– Short-term: 4H close above $106.6K = invalidates immediate breakdown setup.
– Macro: Weekly close above $109K with rising OBV = negates CME gap gravity.
✍️ Execution Logic:
If $103K breaks alongside a $500M+ OI flush → scale into short
TP1: $100.3K, TP2: $97.6K, TP3: $93.3K CME gap
🟠 AVWAP targets:
- $102K (orange line) – currently being tested.
- $97.6K – Fib 0.382 zone + AVWAP cluster.
- $93.3K – CME Gap + “Golden Supply Zone” + Fib 0.5.
📉 Liquidity Logic:
- Shorts got squeezed early June — now the longs are stuck. Thin air below. If we nuke through $102K, the dominoes fall cleanly: AVWAP by AVWAP until CME gap closes.
Volume & Profile:
🟦 High-volume node just got pierced.
📉 We’re slipping below the POC — next major support is structurally far below.
Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate breakdown: $100.3K wick zone
Support fade targets:
🔹 $97.6K (Fib & AVWAP)
🟠 $93.3K (Gap)
🟢 $88.9K (Fib 0.618, possible overshoot)
Narrative Summary:
Shorts are gone, longs are sweating. This is the AVWAP death ladder scenario. CME gap acts like gravity when no major buyers step in. Until price reclaims above broken trend structure, every bounce is suspect.
BTC/USD Bearish Outlook AnalysisBTC/USD Bearish Outlook Analysis 📉🧠
📊 Technical Overview:
The BTC/USD chart is showing signs of a bearish structure formation, suggesting increased downside momentum in the short term.
🔻 Resistance Zone:
Clear resistance is identified near $110,345, marked by multiple price rejections (🔴 red arrows).
Price failed to break above this zone several times, indicating strong selling pressure.
🔸 Support Zone:
Strong support lies near the $100,000 psychological level.
Price has respected this zone multiple times (🟠 orange circles), indicating buyer interest.
📉 Current Price Action:
A descending trendline breakout attempt failed and price is now consolidating just below $105,000.
Price is forming a bearish flag/consolidation structure after recent rejection.
A breakdown from the current box range is likely to push BTC toward the support zone at $100,000.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC breaks below $104,000, expect continuation towards $100,000.
A daily candle close below support could signal further downside.
📈 Invalidation:
Bullish invalidation occurs if BTC reclaims and closes above $108,000, with volume, retesting resistance at $110,345.
🧭 Summary:
BTC/USD is exhibiting a lower highs structure within a descending channel. Unless it breaks above the resistance zone, the bias remains bearish with a high probability of retesting support.