Is Bitcoin Ready for Its Next Leg Up? Hereโs What We Know So FarBitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is so back โ not just back like โwe recovered the dip,โ but back like โnew all-time highs, letโs go shopping for Lambos on moonsโ back.
If youโve been following our Top Stories coverage, youโll know that the OG token vaulted past $109,500 last week, then kissed $111,900 in โTom Cruise falling off a buildingโ style. Only that there wasnโt a fall to the ground. Instead, Bitcoin prices got stuck near $110,000 and are now waiting for the next catalyst.
Where are we in the cycle? The memes are pumping. Maxis are chest-thumping (this oneโs for you, Saylor ). And the market? Well, itโs trying to figure out if this rocket still has fuel, or if weโre hovering at apogee before gravity reminds us itโs still a thing.
Letโs break down whatโs really going on โ with numbers, context, and just enough forecast to keep it spicy.
๐ Bitcoin Goes Bionic
Call it what you want โ a breakout, a blowoff, or a moonshot โ Bitcoin just rewrote the record books. The OG coin is up 48% since its April lows, a run thatโs as explosive as it is poetic.
Remember the bearish chants echoing when BTC dipped near $74,000 in early spring? And all those Bitcoin permabears saying itโs all going to zero? Yeah, those are suddenly hard to hear over the rocket engines.
This is the moment Bitcoin believers have been waiting for. Institutional interest continues to show inflows are strong. Adoption is real and making solid progress. And price action is loud โ loud enough to drown out the skeptics still quoting tulip bubbles from 1637.
๐ฅ Why the Breakout? A Perfect Storm
Looking at the fundamentals and the technicals โ this wasnโt a fluke. It was a perfect cocktail of macro tailwinds, regulatory green lights, and unrelenting digital gold fever.
ETF flows? Exchange-traded funds are collecting record levels of fresh capital โ all eleven of them .
Institutional demand? Climbing faster than Saylor can tweet.
Macro backdrop? Soft dollar, muted inflation, and a shiny 90-day trade truce between the US and China paired with one between the US and the EU .
Regulatory mood? A lot less hostile than the Biden administration, with a stablecoin bill clearing the Senateโs procedural vote and Texas passing a law to hold Bitcoin in its reserve fund.
Bitcoin didnโt ride the wave โ it was the wave. And with volatility finally working for traders, not against them, the rally gained real traction.
๐ Not All Risk is Behind Us
Now before we start naming stars after Satoshi, letโs pump the brakes (just a little). The flagship crypto might be chilling around $110,000, but this asset class has the emotional range (and discipline) of a toddler. Weโve seen rallies like this before. Weโve also seen how quickly they unravel.
Upcoming economic data could throw a wrench in the gears. Hereโs what to watch for this week:
Wednesday: Fed minutes
Thursday: GDP figures
Friday: Core PCE inflation
Any surprises here โ especially hotter-than-expected inflation or hawkish Fed sentiment โ could rattle the risk-on party. Bitcoin loves liquidity. If the Fed hints at tightening, the rocket might need to refuel mid-air.
๐งญ Key Levels to Watch
Technically, the $111,900 print is your short-term ceiling. Itโs the new line in the sand โ the price everyoneโs watching, waiting for a clean break or a hard rejection.
On the downside, $105,000โ$106,000 is developing as support. Break that, and $100,000 becomes the psychological safety net. Below that? Well, letโs not talk about it unless we have to.
Until then, price is consolidating. Think of it like a pit stop โ a chance for bulls to breathe, for bears to panic quietly, and for traders to argue about Fibonacci levels.
๐ฐ๏ธ Is $120K Next? Or Is This the Top?
But letโs dig into it a little bit. The real question is whether this rally still has legs. Some traders are calling $120,000 a โmagnet level.โ Others are treating current prices like the top and selling into strength.
The answer? Probably both.
Momentum is still there โ just cooled off a bit. Volumeโs down slightly. Social buzz is still high up there. The marketโs in a classic โwait-and-seeโ phase, prepping for a bigger move in either direction.
What could break the stalemate?
A blockbuster inflation report (bullish if soft).
Another policy win from Washington.
Or the most powerful force of all: a dovish stance from the man who moves markets with a simple โGood afternoonโ (bonus points if you guess who that is!)
๐ข Final Word: Celebrate, But Stay Sharp
If youโve been long since the dip, this is your moment. Pop some virtual (or real?) champagne. Screenshot that green PnL. Post a gif of Elon and Trump dancing.
But if youโre entering now, zoom out. Yes, momentum is bullish. Yes, fundamentals are stronger than ever. But Bitcoin doesnโt do straight lines for long. And your stop-loss isnโt going to set itself.
Whether $120K is next or we pull back to reset, the next few sessions will be crucial.
Your move : Are you buying this breakout? Waiting for confirmation? Or just enjoying the view from orbit? Let us know how youโre playing this Bitcoin beast โ because one thingโs certain: itโs never boring up here.
BTCUSD trade ideas
Healthy BTC Retrace in Trend Next Breakout Target 112K Then 122KBitcoin continues to respect the bullish market highlighted in our previous analysis, where the AB=CD structure pointed toward significant upside potential. The market has since retraced into a well defined re-accumulation zone, aligning precisely with prior expectations.
Price has held firmly above the round figure support ($100k), with the current structure confirming a healthy correction within trend.
As long as the re-accumulation zone between 104kโ107k holds, momentum remains skewed to the upside. The projected 2.618 extension sits near the 122k mark, where the current setup aims to complete.
The broader structure still respects higher timeframe demand and ascending channel boundaries, keeping bullish continuation valid unless 100k decisively breaks. Watch for confirmation breakout above 112k to activate the next leg of the move.
If you found this analysis insightful, drop a like to support the work and leave a comment with your perspective whether you agree, disagree, or have an alternate scenario in mind. Let's grow together through collective insights.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1H Chart Analysis โ Double Top Signals BearishPattern Formed: DOUBLE TOP
โ ๏ธ Bearish Reversal Pattern Spotted!
๐ Formed near 111,794.8
โฌ๏ธ Price tested the top twice and failed โ strong resistance confirmed!
Key Zones:
๐ถ SUPPLY ZONE (Resistance):
๐ง 111,794.8 - 111,829.8
๐ผ Expect selling pressure here!
๐ท SUPPORT Zone (Broken!):
๐ป Price fell below this level, confirming a bearish breakout
๐ฉ TARGET ZONE:
๐ฏ 102,500.0
โ
This is the likely drop target based on the pattern
๐ง Other minor supports:
* 102,820.6
* 102,750.8
* 102,227.0.
Indicators:
๐ Trend Line
* Supported the price during the uptrend
* โ Now broken โ indicates momentum shift
๐ EMA 70 (Red Line)
* Current Price (108,238.6) is below EMA 70 = 109,245.0
* Indicates bearish pressure.
Trade Setup:
๐ฝ Short Entry Idea: After support break
๐ Stop Loss: 111,829.8
๐ฏ Take Profit: 102,500.0
โ๏ธ Risk-Reward looks attractive!
Summary:
๐ Bearish bias confirmed by:
* Double Top pattern
* Supply zone rejection
* Support break
* EMA crossover
๐จ Traders Watch Out: Bears are in control โ next major stop likely at 102,500.0!
BTCUSD NEXT MOVE (EXPECTING MILD BEARISH)(28-05-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
(TODAY ANALYSIS IS LOW ACURACY ANALYSIS)
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (28-05-2025) (SHORT TERM)
Current price- 109000
"if Price stay below 1,10,000 then next target is 1,08,000, 1,07,000 and 1,06,000 above that 1,11,000.
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
The Bitcoin โBig Shortโ: Whales Are Quietly Leaving the PartyBitcoin just broke $111,000. Headlines are celebrating. Retail is euphoric. But under the surface, on-chain data tells a very different story: wallets holding over $1,000,000 in BTCโcommonly referred to as whalesโare quietly exiting.
According to Glassnode, the number of $1M+ wallets has dropped by nearly 9% over the last 60 days, even as price soared to new highs. This isn't a coincidence. It's the classic distribution phaseโwhales cashing out while late-stage buyers, lured in by ETF hype and bullish momentum, absorb the risk.
Bloomberg Crypto reported this month that over $10 billion in BTC has been moved from cold storage to exchanges, much of it from long-dormant wallets and miner reserves. This pattern echoes what we saw before the 2021 crashโstrategic selling into strength.
ETFs: Fuel and Trap
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were pitched as the final gateway to mass adoption. In reality, theyโre a liquidity funnel. Retail investors pile in via retirement accounts and brokerages, buying exposureโbut not the asset itself. Meanwhile, institutional whales sell BTC into these passive flows.
As Bloombergโs ETF Weekly noted in May 2025, โThe majority of ETF inflows are retail-led, while OTC desks are reporting increased large-lot sell requests.โ Itโs a perfect storm: passive inflows mask whale exits, and the average buyer is blind to whatโs really happening on-chain.
On-Chain Red Flags
The blockchain doesnโt lie. Key warning signs are flashing:
$1M+ wallets falling: Down from ~139K to ~126K since March.
Exchange reserves rising: Indicating coins are being positioned for liquidation.
Long-term holder profit-taking: SOPR is above 1.6โprofit margins not seen since the last major top.
Dormant coins awakening: Older UTXOs (2+ years) are being spent at the fastest rate since late 2021.
Even miners are capitulating. Miner-held balances are down 12% YTD, and transfer spikes suggest they're taking advantage of inflated prices to fund operations.
Why It Matters
This isnโt FUD. Itโs math. When the most informed market participants offload supply into a leveraged, overextended retail-driven rally, the result is rarely soft. If BTC loses key support around $95K, the slide to $60Kโor lowerโcould be violent and fast.
The chart may look bullish. But the blockchain shows distribution, not accumulation. The whales arenโt tweeting. Theyโre cashing out.
Retail is late to the party. The smart money is already gone.
BTC/USD Rebound in Play! | Key Support Holding, Eyes on $112K๐ BTC/USD Technical Analysis
๐๏ธ Chart Date: May 25, 2025
๐ Key Levels:
๐ต Support Zone: $106,800 โ $107,300
Notably, price bounced twice in this region, indicating strong buying interest.
This area aligns closely with the 200 EMA (currently at $107,213.51), adding further confluence as dynamic support.
๐ด Resistance Zone: $111,800 โ $112,300
Previous highs and consolidation make this a significant area where sellers may re-enter the market.
๐ Indicators:
๐ต EMA 200 (Blue): $107,213.51
Acts as a strong dynamic support; price bounced off it recently.
๐ด EMA 50 (Red): $108,182.91
Price is currently below the 50 EMA, suggesting short-term bearish pressure remains until this level is reclaimed.
๐ง Market Structure & Price Action:
After a sharp drop from the resistance zone, price found solid footing at the support zone.
Recent candles show rejection wicks from the downside, hinting at potential bullish reversal.
A breakout above minor consolidation and 50 EMA could trigger a bullish continuation toward the resistance.
๐ Forecast:
โ
If the price holds above the support zone and breaks above $108,200, we can expect a bullish move toward $112,000.
โ ๏ธ However, a failure to break above the 50 EMA could lead to a retest of the support zone.
๐งญ Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
๐ฅ Long Bias:
Entry: On confirmed breakout above $108,200
SL: Below $107,000
TP: $111,800 โ $112,300
๐ Conclusion:
The chart setup suggests a potential bullish reversal ๐ from a key support zone, supported by EMA 200. Watch for a break above the 50 EMA for momentum confirmation.
๐ง Always confirm with volume and wait for confirmation before entering a position.
BITCOIN No different than all the Bullish Legs since 2023!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just completed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the 4th such pattern since February 05 2023. All those Golden Crosses have been formed marginally after the Channel Up bottoms and start of their respective Bullish Legs.
The current pattern is no different than any other of those Bullish Legs. On top of that, the 1W MACD has also formed its usual Bullish Cross that has technically always preceded the 1D Golden Cross.
Given that, when this happens, BTC tends to be at least near the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the eventual top, we can estimate that the next peak might be around $165000. This is another indicator that makes our $150k Target for this Cycle more than realistic.
But what do you think? Are you also expecting the market to explode past $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC\USD..bitcoin 30m chart pattern Iโm planning a **BTCUSD Buy trade** with the following details:
- **Entry**: $108,900
- **Target**: $112,000
Hereโs a quick analysis and risk management plan for your trade:
---
### **1. Trade Setup**
- **Potential Profit**: **$3,100 per BTC** (2.85% gain from entry).
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: Depends on your stop-loss (SL). Example:
- If SL = $107,900 (1% risk), reward/risk = **3.1:1** (favorable).
- If SL = $106,900 (1.8% risk), reward/risk = **1.6:1**.
---
### **2. Key Levels to Watch**
- **Support (Protective SL)**:
- Short-term: **$107,500โ$108,000** (psychological support).
- Stronger: **$106,500** (would invalidate bullish momentum).
- **Resistance (Target)**:
- **$112,000** is a psychological round number (may face selling pressure).
- Beyond: Next targets could be $115,000 or $120,000 if bullish.
---
### **3. Execution Tips**
- **Order Types**:
- Use a **limit order** at $108,900 (if waiting for a pullback).
- Or **market order** if bullish momentum is strong.
- **Stop-Loss Suggestions**:
- Conservative: **$107,900** (0.9% risk).
- Aggressive: **$106,500** (2.2% risk).
- **Partial Profit-Taking**: Consider selling 50% at $112,000 and trailing the rest.
---
### **4. Market Context (Verify Before Trading)**
- Check if Bitcoin is in an **uptrend** (e.g., higher lows) or facing resistance.
- Monitor catalysts: ETF inflows, Fed rate decisions, Bitcoin halving effects.
---
### **5. Alternative Strategy**
If unsure about timing, consider:
- **DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging)**: Split your buy into smaller orders (e.g., 3 entries at $109k, $107k, $105k).
---
**Would you like help with:**
- Chart analysis (e.g., RSI, volume trends)?
- Refining stop-loss/take-profit levels?
- News impacting Bitcoin right now?
Let me know how you'd like to proceed! ๐
BITCOIN is attempting to converge with past Cycles!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing the weakest Bull Cycle in its history, a natural product of the Theory of Diminishing Returns (TDM).
This chart couldn't have put it better as we show all Cycles since BTC's first day, one on top of the other. Naturally the first Cycles were the most aggressive, witnessing extraordinary gains as the upside potential of a fresh market was enormous in its early days.
The 2015 - 2017 (blue trend-line) and 2019 - 2021 (black trend-line) Bull Cycles have been harmonized to a more traditional capital market state and this is obvious on their trend-lines, which exhibit similar parallel price action. Whenever the two diverged, they converged at some point during the Cycle.
The current Cycle (2023 - 2025) following the late February 2025 divergence, is now attempting to converge again with its strong rebound in the past 6 weeks. Being however within a Channel Up throughout the entirety of the Cycle, it appears that it will do so in a structured way and as the TDM suggests, will offer weaker gains.
What we can project, as we've shown on previous studies in great detail, is the timing of the Cycle Top. Based on past Cycles, it should be within October - December 2025. Timing your exit strategy can perhaps be more effective than assigning a certain Target, even though the peak is expected to be anywhere within the $150k - $200k range.
So do you agree that the rise we're witnessing is the Cycle's attempt to converge with past ones and close the gap before it tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - Here we have the all time high!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - is just getting started:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis๐๐ป)
It was really just a matter of time until we see a new all time high on Bitcoin. Consindering that over the past two months alone, Bitcoin rose another +50%, this was a clear indication that bulls are taking over. But this all time high is clearly not the end of the bullrun.
Levels to watch: $300.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Bitcoin: Too Early To Buy The Retrace.Bitcoin may be entering a brief corrective formation within the broader bullish trend. The large red candle that rejected the 113K resistance (see my previous article), could be the beginning of a retrace that can take price as low as the 102,500 to 100K area IF bearish momentum persists. The mistake to avoid is buying this pullback too early, especially since there is no bullish confirmation on this time frame.
The red candle off the 113K area is what I like to refer to as the "mother bar". As you will notice, the following candle is a bearish pin bar which failed to break back above the 50% point of the mother bar (see blue arrow). This is a "mini" lower high and is typically a bearish sign for those operating on smaller time frames. A break below 106,500 would confirm a sell signal on this time frame as well as smaller time frames like 4H and 1H. This can be attractive for aggressive shorts, BUT it is very important to keep the broader trend in perspective.
This bearish development does NOT constitute a change in the broader trend. This means support levels are still more likely to hold, and resistances more likely to break. The higher probability scenarios in my opinion are bullish reversal patterns between the 102,500 - 100K area. Double bottoms, failed lows etc. on 1H, 4H or this time frame would be ideal for swing trade longs (see illustration). IF the bullish trend is going to stay intact, then a higher high is within reason which can see price test 113K or higher (120K is my next resistance).
Another VERY important consideration is the overall location of price. Currently in a Wave 5 (v) configuration which signifies limited potential in the near future. In other words, RISK is elevated and only continues to increase as price climbs higher. As "optimistic" as everyone may seem to be, this is a time to be more defensive, NOT aggressive. This can be accomplished by reducing expectations, operating on smaller time frames, and taking smaller positions. My Trade Scanner Pro helps to quantify risk which is especially helpful in rising risk environments such as this one.
In contrast, the location to be aggressively bullish was the 76K area low. Sure I can say this after the fact, BUT if you read my analysis and watch my streams from that time, I was pointing out the potential and the bullish signs as they were developing in real time.
Market situations like the one Bitcoin is in right now can be very confusing at times. Navigating this environment successfully depends on how you interpret price structures, trends and levels across multiple time frames and letting the MARKET validate ideas or not the other way around. Always consider arguments on both sides of the market and weigh those arguments against the style or strategy that you intend to deploy. And if confusion ensues, then the easiest thing to do is walk away. When potential is limited, there is nothing to fear in terms of missing out.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
5-20-25 WARNING : Bitcoin Sets Up MASSIVE Double-Top WarningI highlighted this incredible price/technical pattern in my morning Plan Your Trade video. But, I thought it was important enough to create a separate video highlighting this incredible Double-Top warning and to try to tell all of my followers to start actively protecting capital over the next 2-3+ weeks.
As much as I would like to say this won't happen (meaning some type of crisis event or global financial crisis) causing a collapse in Bitcoin (and the US/Global markets) - but I believe the continued constraints on the global markets, related to Trump's policies and attempts to reduce US govt spending) will act as a devaluation event for global economies.
Think about it for a minute...
1. If the US is able to remove $500-900 Billion in fraud/waste/NGO spending (of which, a portion of that spending is dedicated to supporting global initiatives/spending), this will result in a contraction (in some form) for some global economies.
2. If the US is able to negotiate more favorable tariff rates for US goods supplied to the world (where foreign nations reduce or eliminate tariffs on US goods), this will also act as a reduction in economic income for many foreign nations.
3. These combined and continued efforts to restructure the US economy into a strong and more dynamic global economic driver (more fairly balanced in terms of global trade) will come at the expense of breaking away from what has traditionally been untouched.
This breaking of the past, in terms of what nations expected related to US spending and tariffs on US Goods, may represent a 15-25% (or more) contraction in foreign economic activity.
If this disruption from "what was normal" results in the US Fed, or global central banks, taking emergency measures to address short-falls in their economies, this could prompt a series of events that could result in a broad devaluation type of event (very similar to what happened after COVID in 2022-2023).
That event was prompted by the US Fed raising rates trying to stop inflation. This event could be the result of slower/lower economic outputs/expectations related to the changing tariff rates and the reduction in US spending throughout the world. Central Banks and regional governments may attempt to provide some type of capital stimulus to transition through this phase - but I see that as "building a bigger bubble - just waiting to pop".
The smart move for global central banks is to follow the US's lead and start to move towards more austerity/accountability regarding their own economies/spending and attempt to let the devaluation price phase play out.
Either way, time will tell if I'm correct or not.
You have been warned. IMO, you have about 3-6 weeks before BTCUSD potentially tops and may roll into a very strong breakdown phase.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BTCUSD NEXT MOVE (EXPECTING MILD CORRECTION)(23-05-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (23-05-2025) (SHORT TERM)
Current price- 1111000
"if Price stay below 1,12,000 then next target is 1,10,000, 1,08,000 and 1,06,000 above that 1,13,000.
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
BITCOIN repeating every Cycle's final rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a strong rally since the April 2025 bottom on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and that's perfectly aligned with the 1W MA50 rebound it had on the previous two Cycles in June 2021 and June 2017.
As you can see, those (blue circles) where the All Time High (ATH) Pivot trend-line test before the final (parabolic) rally of the Cycle started, which was its most aggressive part.
In 2017 it was much stronger and the price rallied much higher, which is natural as the market was much less mature (institutionally) than today, but it is not improbable to get a rally similar to July - November 2021.
Can that be enough to push BTC to $150k and beyond? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN $119k coming shortlyBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a 6-week Channel Up and Friday's tariff threats led pull-back was its latest Bearish Leg. That pull-back hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and rebounded. As long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) which is directly below the Channel Up holds, the current rebound is technically the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
All 4 previous Bullish Legs have ended on fairly similar % rises but the weakest has been +11.41%. With the 4H MACD just now completing a Bullish Cross (which has always been a strong buy signal), a repeat of the +11.41% minimum, gives us an immediate $119000 Target.
Do you think that's coming shortly before the beginning of June? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Desperately needs that weekly closing!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke last week above its January Resistance, effectively making a new All Time High (ATH). Technically, within BTC's dominant 2.5-year Channel Up, that is not enough to generate a bullish extension on its own and the reason is that a 1W candle closing above the Resistance level is needed and not just a break.
At least that's what happened during the last two Bullish Legs, where it required a convincing 1W candle close considerably above the Resistance, to confirm the Bullish Extension. In fact the break-out candles on both previous Bullish Legs is fairly identical.
The minimum % rise on the pattern's three Bullish Legs has been +96.75% with the others not falling way off that range (+98.74% and +106.94%). As a result, the bare minimum Target we can be expecting, in the event of a 1W candle closing above the $109500 Resistance, is $147000.
Do you think that' within the market's immediate reach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Trap & Reverse: The Power of SFPs in ActionBTC continues to chop in a tight range near its previous all-time high. While price action may appear messy at first glance, traders using a combination of structure, Fibonacci levels, and order flow tools are spotting clean opportunities โ especially through Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs).
๐ What Just Happened?
Bitcoin recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level โ a classic reaction zone. What made this move powerful was the SFP that formed at that level. Price swept above a prior high, triggering breakout buys, only to reverse. This type of move traps late longs and offers an ideal short entry.
๐ง Educational Insight: Why SFPs Are One of the Best Setups
SFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the highest-probability trades you can take for a few key reasons:
1๏ธโฃ Liquidity-driven: They form where stop losses cluster โ above highs or below lows โ creating a magnet for price.
2๏ธโฃ Clean invalidation: The wick high/low gives a natural stop-loss level, keeping risk tight.
3๏ธโฃ Fast reaction: Once trapped traders are forced to exit, price often reverses sharply โ giving you strong follow-through.
4๏ธโฃ Confirmable with order flow: Using tools like Exocharts, you can see aggressive longs/shorts piling in just before the reversal. This adds conviction to the setup.
๐ Current Confluence:
Rejection from the 0.786 Fib retracement
SFP confirmed on high volume
1:1 trend-based Fib extension sits at ~$105,410
That level also lines up with the 0.666 Fib retracement
Anchored VWAP around $105K
Liquidity pool right at that zone too โ a likely magnet
๐ฏ Trade Idea:
Short triggered at the SFP wick, stop just above it. First target: the 1:1 extension near $105.4K. Risk-reward is excellent with high probability if price continues to unwind late longs.
โ
Key Takeaway:
In ranges like this, you donโt need to guess direction โ you need to react to structure. SFPs give you that edge. When paired with real-time tools like Exocharts and anchored VWAPs, these trades become sniper entries rather than coin flips.
Let the market show its hand โ and trade the reaction, not the prediction.
๐ Summary:
This is how you avoid overtrading in chop: wait for key levels, watch how price reacts, and let trapped traders create the move. If BTC revisits the $105K region, itโs a major area to watch for reaction โ or to take partials if youโre in a short.
The best trades come from patience + precision.
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BTCUSD Up trend breakdown ahead selling strong๐จBTC/USD Breakdown Alert ๐จ
BTC has officially broken down from the previous uptrend, confirmed by a strong bearish engulfing candle โ signaling a clear shift in momentum. This is a prime opportunity to look for short setups.
๐ Sell Entry: 107,400
๐ฏ Technical Targets & Demand Zones:
๐น 1st Target: 103,700 โ Minor demand zone
๐น 2nd Target: 96,400 โ Stronger structural support
๐น 3rd Target: 85,100 โ Deep liquidity zone
๐น 4th Target: 77,000 โ Bullish Order Block
๐ก Breakdown confirmed. Trend shift validated. Selling pressure likely to continue.
Trade smart. Manage risk.
โ Livia ๐ผ๐
Bitcoin has the potential to return to $30,000A simple idea:
The Bitcoin price trend has clearly weakened, as you can see in the image above, the upward waves are getting weaker (the angle of the blue lines is getting smaller).
The price is moving in a curved channel and has the potential to reach $30,000.
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
9-Up WavesโExtended Bullish ImpulseโBitcoin's 2025 Bull MarketIn Elliot Wave Theory, a bullish impulse has a total count of 5 waves but this isn't all. There is something called an "extension." Extensions can lead not only to 9 total waves but even 13 waves.
We can easily see this happen if we consider Bitcoin's bull market based on the long-term chart structure, starting in November 2022, see the chart above.
A bull market is defined as a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This is perfectly visible on this chart. Contrary to many Altcoins, Bitcoin is in a long-term bull market.
If we consider even some of the big Altcoins projects, we can see that no long-term bull market is present, many are producing lower lows, but at the same time, others are producing long-term uptrends like Tron. So there are variations.
Seeing a perfect long-term 5 waves pattern completed when Bitcoin hit $110,000 in January 2025, seeing a strong higher low and the continuation of this trend, we can easily conclude that an extension is taking place.
Will this extension end at 9 waves or 13 waves?
Bitcoin is going up. It is already happening. There will be more.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.