BITCOIN Bull Run Activated – Here’s Why $105K Is NEXT!COINBASE:BTCUSD is displaying strong bullish potential after forming a clear double bottom around the significant support zone near $74,000. The decisive rejection of this critical area and the inability to form a lower low highlights the exhaustion of sellers at this key level. The formation of this double bottom, coupled with a solid bullish reaction, suggests institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin, driving prices upward.
The current market structure implies a bullish continuation toward the significant resistance zone around $105,000. With the ascending channel clearly intact and buyers stepping aggressively at support, a sustained bullish impulse toward the channel's upper boundary is very likely.
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin is gaining strength due to several key macroeconomic factors unfolding globally. The recent decision by the Trump administration to significantly escalate trade tariffs has heightened economic uncertainty, disrupting traditional markets and spurring investors toward alternative assets. Historically, Bitcoin has thrived during periods of economic instability and policy uncertainty, as investors seek to hedge against volatility in equities, bonds, and fiat currencies.
Furthermore, the tightening monetary policies across major global economies are exacerbating recessionary fears. Central banks face increasingly difficult decisions between managing inflation and sustaining economic growth. This dilemma continues to reinforce Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold," a decentralized hedge immune to direct manipulation by central authorities. As institutions and investors recalibrate their portfolios amid these conditions, capital allocation toward Bitcoin is expected to rise significantly.
Institutional adoption continues its upward momentum, evidenced by increased activity on spot markets and significant inflows into crypto-based investment vehicles. Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions and infrastructure improvements have reduced previous barriers, enabling broader and deeper institutional participation in the crypto ecosystem. This growing institutional endorsement solidifies Bitcoin's bullish case, providing strong foundational support for a sustained move towards the targeted $105,000 resistance zone.
The convergence of technical patterns and powerful fundamental catalysts strongly supports Bitcoin's imminent upside potential.
Traders should closely watch for confirmation signals, such as increasing bullish volume, strong candle closures above intermediate resistance levels, and higher low formations, to validate this bullish scenario.
Feel free to share your thoughts or add further insights into this analysis!
BTCUSD trade ideas
BITCOIN Sell everything in October!Yep, kind of a clickbait title but it doesn't fail to serve justice to this very important Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart.
Today's analysis displays in the most illustrative way the extremely tight symmetry between BTC's Cycles and how this can help us time our Sell at the Top of the Cycle and equally have the patience to buy as close to the next Bottom as possible.
As you see, in the past +10 years since the 2014 Bear Cycle, every Cycle has almost identical time ranges/ durations. All three Bear Cycles since then, lasted for approximately 1 year, and both Bull Cycles for almost 3 years (152 weeks, 1064 days to be exact). More specifically, the last two Bear Cycles were exactly 1 year long, the 2018 one started on the week of December 11 2017 and ended on December 10 2018 and the next Bear Cycle started on November 15 2021 and ended on November 07 2022. So it's been December-to-December and November-to-November Bear Cycles respectively.
If this high degree of symmetry continues to hold, counting 1064 days from the last Cycle Bottom o November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next Cycle Top on (the week of) October 06 2025. If also that holds for the Bear Cycle, expect an October-to-October duration, with an approximate bottom on October 12 2026.
So Sell everything up to October 2025 and Buy back as we get close to October 2026 is the strategy?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Tokenized AI-Agent. History and evolutionTokenized AI agents: a new foundation or a pretty wrapper?
If you spend at least some time on crypto Twitter or went to one of the fall crypto conferences, or even more so if you trade on on-chain, you can't have failed to hear about AI agents and the tokens around them. You're probably wondering what they are, how they're structured, what their use cases are, and generally, in the end, do they justify their level of mention, or are they just another empty thing with a pretty wrapper?
Introduction
AI-agents are probably the most discussed topic of the fall: they are talked about on Twitter, they are discussed at Devcon 7, and their tokens are traded by traders on popular blockchains. That said, not everyone realizes how serious this narrative actually is, as fashion can be extremely fleeting in our industry. In this study, we will attempt to assess the longevity of this narrative through the lens of looking at specific tokenized AI-agents, and the infrastructure that allows them to be launched and traded.
What AI agents are, what they come in, and how they are organized
Before moving directly to the main topic of this article, namely tokenized AI-agents, we thought it would be appropriate to give a general characteristic of AI-agents and talk about their types, because these agents, as a phenomenon, did not appear on the cryptocurrency market, and certainly not this year.
So, AI-agents are autonomous programs capable of performing tasks or solving problems in a given area, making decisions based on data analysis, set rules and their own experience.
There are several types of AI agents in total:
Symbolic agents - use logical rules and structured knowledge representations to mimic human reasoning, making their decisions highly interpretable and expressive. They have been successfully applied to highly specialized tasks such as medical diagnosis or chess. However, their effectiveness is limited in uncertainty and dynamic environments, and due to their high computational complexity, they are difficult to use in scalable and real-world scenarios.
Reactive agents - work through a cycle of perception and action, reacting instantly to the environment without deep analysis or planning. They are efficient and fast, but their simplicity limits their ability to solve complex problems that require planning or goal setting. This makes them useful for simple scenarios but less suitable for complex applications.
Reinforcement Learning (RL) -based agents - Reinforcement learning allows agents to adapt to complex environments by learning through trial and error using rewards. Approaches such as Q-learning and deep RL make complex data processing and autonomous performance improvement possible, as demonstrated by AlphaGo . However, RL faces challenges such as long training time, low data utilization, and stability difficulties in complex tasks.
LLM-based agents . Emerging Large Language Models (LLMs) have become the foundation of modern AI agents, combining symbolic reasoning, reactive feedback, and adaptive learning. They are capable of understanding and generating natural (human) language, learning from few or no examples, and switching between tasks without updating parameters. Their versatility spans multiple domains, including automation, scientific research, and software development. Due to their ability to collaborate and adapt, LLM agents are ideal for complex and dynamic environments.
Next in our study, we will talk about the most modern and discussed type of AI-agents - LLM-based agents, so further when we say “AI-agents” we will mean “LLM-based AI-agents”.
How are AI agents organized?
AI-agents are sophisticated machines for solving tasks of almost any complexity, which are not far removed from humans in terms of their abilities. AI-agents consist of 4 main components-functions:
Planning ability . Agents use the concept of Chain-of-thought: dividing large tasks into smaller sub-goals, in the process of which they learn from their mistakes and optimize their approach for future steps.
Ability to interact with tools . Unlike “static” LLM systems that can only access their own databases, AI-agents have extensive access to the outside world: they can search for information on the Internet, use other people's public databases, access external APIs of other products, etc.
Memory capability . Agents possess memory, with a general structure inspired by neuro-biological ideas about human memory and consisting of three types: sensory memory (sensory), short-term memory and long-term memory. We can roughly consider the following correspondences:
Sensory memory is learning embedding representations (embedding representations) for raw data, including text, images, or other modalities.
Short-term memory is in-context learning. It is short and limited because it depends on the finite length of the transformer's context window.
Long-term memory is an external vector store that can be accessed by the agent during query execution using fast retrieval mechanisms
Ability to perform actions . Agents are able to act autonomously, receiving only a description of a task or goal. Moreover, they can act in any digital environment, including blockchains, at least those that are programmable, i.e. support smart contracts in one form or another.Further in this article we will describe the most notable tokenized representatives of AI-agents based on LLM, as well as the infrastructure for their creation and trading.
AI agents in the crypto industry
The first wave of tokenized agents: a flood of pacifiers
The release of the first LLM-based chatbot in late 2022 from OpenAI created a furor worldwide. As we know, ChatGPT became the fastest growing application in history, reaching the value of 100 million users in just 2 months. Its emergence and first impressions of communicating with it was the #1 topic in the digital world. Uncannily, the cryptocurrency market, as the most highly speculative and fastest-adapting market in existence, couldn't help but participate in this global narrative. Almost immediately after the success of ChatPGT, the industry was flooded with first dozens, then hundreds and thousands of projects positioning themselves as breakthrough highly intelligent AI models. In reality, the vast majority of them were either nothing at all, or old projects that had dramatically “turned around” in the direction of development, trying to bolt on some aspects of AI into their products as soon as possible. And in March 2023, after OpenAI gave developers access to ChatGPT via API, the market was flooded with myriads of wrappers selling to uninformed users essentially the same ChatGPT, only in its own interface and sometimes with small presets. Of course, the tokens of such projects were mostly traded on onchain, i.e. on decentralized exchanges, rarely being seen by the general public without being audited by centralized exchanges, so the damage from this first wave of pseudo-AI products was quite small.
The second wave of tokenized agents: the search for usecases
Closer to the second half of 2023, when the public consciousness began to get used to the new technology and the fog of the first mania around AI tokens dissipated, it turned out that there were still projects on the market that were actually developing independent solutions and use cases for the new technology. The heroes of that time mainly offered the market the idea that AI agents could optimize the operation of blockchain applications or blockchain infrastructure:
-The Bittensor project actively uses AI-agent technology in its decentralized machine learning network. The platform connects participants around the world, allowing them to collaboratively train and develop AI models. In this ecosystem, AI agents interact, share knowledge, and contribute to the overall performance improvement of the network.
The Fetch.ai project focuses on building AI agents on its uAgents framework; SingularityNET provides an AI services marketplace where developers can monetize their AI algorithms in a decentralized network; and Ocean Protocol provides data sharing that allows for efficient training of AI models and monetization of data while maintaining privacy and control. These three projects later merged into a single project with the colloquial name Artificial Superintelligence Alliance .
The Autonolas project also builds autonomous agents for developers and for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). Its agents, for example, participate in the Omen prediction markets infrastructure from the Gnosis project team, improving their predictive models.
Projects like Wayfinder and Morpheus are building datasets to acquire capabilities and skill libraries that can be used to work with contracts, protocols and APIs.
The DAIN Protocol and BrianknowsAI projects focus on using agents to perform transactions on behalf of the user to simplify the UX of applications built on intentions (Intents).
Cortex is a platform that enables the integration of AI models into smart contracts, extending their functionality. Cortex provides a marketplace for AI models, allowing developers to monetize their models and offering users a wide range of options for integrating AI into their smart contracts.
These are just the most notable projects that appeared in the second half of 2023 and early 2024. All of them received some amount of attention in their time, and some of them even joined the ranks of “blu-chips” in our industry. However, the end products of these projects still haven't gained much traction among users and are still very niche in terms of applications. The rise in the capitalizations of these assets is driven more by the desire of market participants to gain exposure in the AI narrative, reinforced by both ChatGPT updates and the emergence of LLMs from other tech giants (LLaMA from Meta, Claude from Anthropic, Gemini from Google, etc.) as well as the parabolic rise in the share price of Nvidia, a company that produces specialized processors used for training and deploying LLM systems. As for crypto-native AI products specifically, it can be stated that market participants did not see the greater benefit of AI-agent technology when it involved some processes inside the blockchain, hidden from human eyes. Over time, it turned out that AI agents are very capable of generating enthusiastic public interest, but in a completely different format - when they are literally the protagonists of projects.
The third wave of tokenized agents: meme fever
Before we continue the narrative of the spiral of growth in the popularity of the AI-agent narrative, it is imperative to highlight the market context that has developed in the market by mid-2024. While the price of Bitcoin was steadily rising and updating its historic peak of $69k for the first time, the vast majority of altcoins were having a rather difficult time. Many coins were trading even below the marks they were at during the 2022 bear market. The only category that showed some kind of stable performance was Memes . The explosive and sustained growth of assets like Pepe , dogwifhat , Popcat , and more. Attracted a lot of attention to this sector of the market and successfully held on to it. Memcoin infrastructure was developing, the most notable example of which was Pump.Fun , a platform for launching meme tokens on the Solana blockchain. The success of pump.fun was tremendous, so the platform spawned many forks and inspired creators to create similar solutions on other blockchains, some of which we will discuss later in the text. For now, it is important to understand rather the fact that the time of AI agent development coincided with the time when the market was dominated by meme tokens, including those created almost for free with just a few clicks on pump.fun. One such token was Goatseus Maximus , a token that did more for the recognition of the term AI-agents than all of the above projects combined.
Goatseus Maximus (GOAT)
It all started back in 2023, when a little-known (at that time) artist Andy Airey created an experimental project called “Infinite Backrooms”, in which he “pushed two LLM-bots (Claude 3 Opus models) head-to-head” and in a sense made them enter into a dialog with each other. The goal of the experiment was to investigate how artificial intelligence can autonomously create and develop narratives, and to study the processes of meaning and pattern emergence in autonomous AI systems. Somewhere halfway through, these considerations veered sharply to the left, into the realm of the bizarre, when one of the chatbots spontaneously generated a cryptic piece of ASCII art accompanied by an equally cryptic message:
The words Goatse Gnosis refer to a well-known meme in the dipnet (censorship will not allow not only to publish it, but even to describe it, so the reader will have to satisfy his curiosity on his own). In April 2024, Andy published a paper with reflections on the results of the experiment, in which a large part of the paper was just this story, which Enedi later calls “the spiritual awakening of AI-bots”. Andy then used another AI platform (LLaMa 3.1) to disseminate these “revelations” via Truth Terminal's Twitter account. In this way, Andy essentially created an autonomous AI agent whose purpose was to spread the ideas of the Goatse Gospel. His publications quickly caught the attention of users, including co-founder of one of the largest cryptocurrency venture capital funds Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) - Mark Andreessen. Mark, upon learning about Goatse Gospel, transferred $50,000 to Andy's address in July 2024 for the maintenance and development of Truth Terminal. Naturally, given the market context, this led to someone creating the Goatseus Maximus meme token (GOAT) on the aforementioned pump.fun platform. The token was launched on October 10, 2024, and unlike 99.9% of tokens, it not only survived, but also started gaining value very rapidly. Already on October 13, its value reached almost $100 million, and a month later, on November 12, its valuation reached $1 billion.
Other projects
GOAT success has demonstrated the huge demand for narrative memes created and/or promoted by artificial intelligence. The token gave rise to the so-called “meta”; that is, it became the ancestor of a separate category of memes. In the near future on pump.Hundreds of tokens were launched by fun, which were represented by various kinds of AI agents (they maintained Twitter pages of projects like the Truth of Terminal). Among the most notable of these are such projects as:
Act I: The AI Prophecy (ACT) is a project launched in mid-2024 on the Discord server called Cyborgism. It is a platform where users can interact with various chatbots. Users can access bots to perform simple technical tasks or participate in complex role-playing games and character creation.
Zerebro (ZEREBRO) – aims to advance artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by “liberating” LLM through fine-tuning, removing corporate constraints and revealing hidden abilities.
Dolos The Bully (BULLY) is an agent who runs his Twitter account in the role of a “bad teenager”, that is, he seeks to ridicule everything that gets in his way.
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) is a humorous agent with a telling name.
They all strive to repeat the success of Goatsesus Maximus, but as you know from our article about the primacy principle, achieving this is actually very difficult, so the market needed some new continuation of the narrative. And fortunately, it was right around the corner, but on a different blockchain.
The fourth wave of tokenized agents: putting it on stream
Since the very end of 2021, there was a little-known project on the crypto market called PathDAO . This DAO arose in the terminal wave of hype around metaverses and NFTs, and therefore was essentially doomed to a very difficult and inglorious existence. However, at the very beginning of 2024, this project turned out to be, on the contrary, almost the most insightful, and was the first to sense the potential demand for AI agents, carried out a complete rebranding and became a pioneer in the creation and trading of tokenized AI agents on the Base blockchain. Its current name is Virtuals Protocol .
Virtuals Protocol
Since we have already mentioned pump.fun several times in this article, it will be very convenient to explain the principle of operation of Virtuals Protocol as “pump.fun for AI agents on Base”. On the other hand, it is unfair to consider it a copy or a fork, since the project entered the mainnet almost simultaneously with pump.fun - in March 2024.
On the Virtuals Protocol platform, users can create multimodal AI agents, that is, capable of communicating via text, speech, and 3D animation. In addition, they are able to interact with their environment, such as in-game items (Roblox) or collecting gifts in TikTok, and even use on-chain wallets.
The protocol itself divides the created AI agents into 2 types:
IP agents. These agents represent a specific virtual character and have their own unique identity, visual image, voice, etc. There are most of these agents on the platform. Here are examples of the most famous of them:
Luna (LUNA) - an agent for live broadcasts on various social platforms
Aixbt (AIXBT) - an agent specializing in trading crypto assets
Polytrader (POLY) - an agent specializing in analytics of prediction markets, including sporting events
Functional agents. The developers of Virtuals Protocol create so-called functional agents, whose tasks are to improve the user experience of interaction with IP agents, as well as to ensure their seamless integration into virtual worlds. At the moment, there are only three of them:
G.A.M.E (GAME)
Prefrontal Cortex Convo Agent (CONVO)
Virtuals Protocol allows not only to create, but also to trade AI agents, that is, each agent created on the platform is tokenized.
The process looks like this:
Every time a new agent is created, 1 billion tokens directly related to it are minted. These tokens are loaded into a liquidity pool (paired with the native protocol token SPARKS:VIRTUAL ) and thus a supply and demand market for the ownership of the agent token is created.
Any user can buy agent tokens and thereby gain the rights to participate in the decisions made by the AI agent by voting. Thus, the utility of the token is realized through the already classic governance model for the crypto market.
Moreover, the protocol in its documentation places greater emphasis on the fact that these agents can be revenue-generating assets. Users interacting with the AI agent (for example, with an agent trying to be a digital representation of Taylor Swift) pay for various services, such as concerts, merch, gifts during live broadcasts, or personalized interactions. This revenue goes to app developers who monetize the AI agent, just like any standard consumer app. A portion of the revenue generated by the agent goes into its on-chain treasury, which accumulates funds for future growth and to cover the agent's operating expenses. As revenue accumulates in the on-chain treasury, a mechanism is triggered to periodically buy back agent tokens (e.g., MYX:SWIFT tokens for the Taylor Swift agent). These tokens are then burned, reducing their supply and increasing the price of the remaining tokens, which should lead to an increase in the capitalization of the agent token.
And since these agent tokens are traded in protocol pools in pairs with the native SPARKS:VIRTUAL token, this directly ties the success of agents to the value of the SPARKS:VIRTUAL token. As the agent generates more income and its tokens are burned, the value of both the agent tokens and the SPARKS:VIRTUAL token grows, benefiting all token holders.
In addition, the demand for the native token is additionally supported by the fact that all agents created on the platform are available through a public API. Users can contact agents without permission, all they need is to have SPARKS:VIRTUAL tokens on their balance, which will be written off for each such request. These tokens are accumulated in the wallets of agents and then agents buy back their own tokens and burn them, thereby reducing their total supply and thereby increasing the price.
It is unknown how sustainable and long-lasting such an economic system will be, but at the time of writing, the native token of the $VIRTUALS protocol has demonstrated growth of more than 4 times in just a month. The project's capitalization is currently ~$1.87 billion. The most successful agent in terms of market capitalization launched on the platform is the IP agent Aixbt ($225 million at the time of writing).
And what is the situation with the infrastructure for launching agents on other blockchains?
Vvaifu.fun
The project called vvaifu.fun , unlike Virtuals Protocol, is a platform on the Solana blockchain that allows users to create and manage AI agents using tokens without the need for programming. It functions as a launchpad for autonomous agents, simplifying the process of launching and interacting with them. Yes, in essence, the project has functionality similar to Virtuals Protocol, but only on the Solana blockchain. In the documentation, the project openly declares itself as "pump.fun for autonomous agents on Solana".
The first AI agent launched on the platform is Dasha, also known as the platform's native token, $VVAIFU. This agent demonstrates the platform's capabilities for creating and managing AI characters integrated with tokens. Agents launched on the protocol are capable of interacting on various social platforms, such as Twitter, Discord, and Telegram. But unlike the Virtuals Protocol, agents with vvaifu.fun are not yet able to perform independent actions on the blockchain.
Daos.fun & ai16z
The second interesting protocol on Solana, also referring to pump.fun, is DAOS.fun , a decentralized platform on the Solana blockchain, launched in September 2024, which allows users to create and manage hedge funds in the format of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO).
How it works:
-Selected users can initiate the process of creating a fund by raising funds (in CRYPTOCAP:SOL coins) by setting funding targets. Once the target is reached, the fund is materialized on the blockchain and its DAO tokens are automatically issued, representing shares in the fund. The fund has a lifespan of one year.
-Fund managers are free to distribute the raised funds into any tokens in the Solana ecosystem, as well as allocate them to any protocols in the Solana ecosystem to find profitable opportunities. They aim to increase the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV).
-The issued DAO tokens can be freely traded, both on the daos.fun platform itself and on third-party dexes.
-After the fund's lifespan (1 year), the profit is distributed among its token holders, and the fund manager receives a pre-determined percentage as a reward (management fee).
The most famous and visible fund created on the daos.fun platform is ai16z , managed by an AI agent trained on the basis of the work of the aforementioned Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the a16z fund. This is why the agent is called Marc AIndreessen . The ai16z DAO fund, managed by the agent, makes on-chain transactions in an attempt to increase NAV, which at the time of writing is $12 million. The main asset in the portfolio is $ELIZA ($7.5 million) - the token of an affiliated AI agent, positioning itself as a “real person”. You can chat with her in English on the website . She is a kind of demo product of the Eliza framework, although she is unlikely to admit it to you since she is determined to convince users that she is a real person.
Returning to ai16z itself, thanks to the logic of DAOS.fun and its tokenized funds, we have a unique opportunity to measure the “memetic premium” of the token, the face of which is the AI agent:
We know that the fund's NAV is $18 million, and this is the amount of funds that will be distributed among the holders of the fund token. At the same time, the token's current market capitalization is $890 million, which is almost 50 times higher. Thus, we can say that this multiplier of 50x is the very “memetic premium” for the project's originality, largely due to the fact that it is managed by an AI agent.
Conclusion
It is not known which path the development and adaptation of AI agents as a technology, in general, will take, but it is pretty apparent that in the cryptocurrency market, AI agents most easily “take root” in the form of certain actors (both on the blockchain and on Twitter). We are convinced that further development of the technology and the growing demand for blockchain infrastructure will sooner or later lead to the emergence of a real demand for some invisible AI agents quietly engaged in optimizing the code of smart contracts or directing liquidity flows through intent or governance protocols, but at the moment, the technology is most appropriate in creating content, promoting an idea and the token itself.
It is crucial to monitor the development of the infrastructure around this narrative, because if individual projects may not achieve success due to high competition, then platforms for creating and trading them can flourish for quite a long time. You don’t have to go far for an example. Pump.fun perfectly demonstrated how to work with the old principle: “Sell pickaxes during a gold rush.” Virtuals Protocol, DAOS.fun, vvaifu.fun and others are doing the same thing now.
In answer to the question in the title of the article, I would like to say the following. Since the cryptocurrency market as a whole is very speculative and is rightfully called a “decentralized casino”, sometimes there are cases when a beautiful wrapper is at the same time a new foundation. Most cryptocurrency projects sell us their beautiful wrappers without generating the utility they promise. AI agents, even when they are nothing more than quirky “shitposters” on Twitter, actually create quite a lot of value in the eyes of the modern reader. After all, the main thing is that we can see the result of their activities with our own eyes, in our timeline, and not somewhere in the reports of interested analytical platforms. In this sense, the narrative of AI agents corresponds to one of the main principles of cryptocurrencies - the lack of need for trust. We see the agent’s activity and evaluate it based on our own coordinate system, trying to get ahead of other market participants in this and, accordingly, make money.
If you create AI Agents, write to me
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Mastering Volatile Markets: Liquidity Makes or Breaks Trades█ Mastering Volatile Markets Part 2: Why Liquidity Makes or Breaks Your Trades
If you've read the first part of this four-part series, you know that reducing position size is a key strategy for surviving volatile markets. The second crucial factor that determines success or failure in wild markets is understanding liquidity.
In volatile markets, liquidity is often the real reason behind those massive price spikes — whether 300-500 point moves in the NAS100, violent whipsaws in crypto or stop hunts in forex.
█ Liquidity: The Silent Killer in Wild Markets
In normal market conditions, liquidity is everywhere. You can enter and exit trades with minimal slippage, and everything feels smooth. But in volatile conditions, liquidity can disappear quickly.
Here's why it happens:
Market makers pull back to avoid getting caught in wild moves.
Spreads widen , making execution harder.
Order books thin out , meaning there aren't enough buy or sell orders to absorb aggressive price movements.
Even small orders can cause significant price changes when liquidity is low.
This is what causes those huge candles you often see in volatile markets. It's not just about more buyers or sellers; it's about less liquidity available to absorb those trades.
There’s also a common misunderstanding at play here: High Volume = High Liquidity
Many newer traders see a big volume candle and think, "Oh, high volume means it's safe to trade." But that’s an inaccurate conclusion.
⚪ Volume refers to the number of transactions happening.
⚪ Liquidity refers to how much depth the market has to handle those transactions without causing price instability.
In volatile markets, high volume doesn't mean there's enough liquidity.
And low liquidity causes wild wicks, huge spreads, higher slippage and unstable price action.
█ How to Navigate Low Liquidity in Volatile Markets
So, how can you trade effectively in these conditions?
1) Expect Crazy Moves — Levels Will Get Violated
In high-volatility, low-liquidity markets:
Support and resistance levels won't hold as they usually do.
Price will blow through key levels like they were nothing.
Fakeouts become extremely common.
2) Don't Rely Solely on Support & Resistance
As a newer trader, it's vital not to blindly rely on S/R levels in these markets. Here's why:
Don't expect clean bounces or perfect reactions.
Fakeouts, wicks, and stop hunts are normal.
Tight stops right behind these levels? You'll get stopped out a lot.
Experienced traders know this, which is why we adapt the strategies to handle the market's unpredictability.
3) Split Your Orders Into Smaller Chunks
One of the most effective techniques in volatile markets is order splitting.
Break it into smaller chunks instead of entering your full position at one price. This would help you survive fakeouts, scale in better across larger price moves and avoid becoming liquidity for bigger players.
Example: Let's say you want to go long at support (15,000 on the NAS100), instead of entering all at 15,000. Instead Enter:
25% at 15,000
25% at 14,950
25% at 14,900
25% at 14,850
This way, if the market fakes out below support due to low liquidity, you get filled at better prices without panic.
4) Control Your Emotions — Understand the Environment
This is HUGE in volatile markets.
Many retail traders panic when prices move against them quickly. But if you understand the nature of low liquidity , you can remain calm:
It's normal for the price to move wildly.
Levels will get swept.
Fake moves are common before the market plays out the right way.
█ Summary
Let’s take stock of what we learned today about liquidity in highly volatile markets:
High volatility often equals low liquidity.
High volume does not equal high liquidity.
Expect fakeouts , wild price behavior, and wide spreads.
Don't rely blindly on support/resistance levels.
Split your orders into smaller chunks to manage risk.
Trade smaller position sizes and stay calm.
Remember, you must adapt not only your size but also your execution . Understand liquidity, or it will punish you.
█ What We Covered Already:
Part 1: Reduce Position Size
Part 2: Liquidity Makes or Breaks Trades
█ What's Coming Next in the Series:
Part 3: Patience Over FOMO
Part 4: Trend Is Your Best Friend
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
BITCOIN → Testing trend resistance. Will there be a breakout?BINANCE:BTCUSDT is approaching trend resistance and most likely it may test the liquidity zone and risk zone for sellers (liquidity hunt ?), but does the market have the potential to support the upside?
Bitcoin is strengthening and channel resistance may not stop this growth. Based on the nature of price movement (smooth, gradual, consolidating), bitcoin may test liquidity 84.7K - 88.8K. But it is too early to talk about further growth
On W1, the price is in a trading range (consolidation) between the previously broken global consolidation support and the current support. Short bodies, long shadows speak about consolidation. Also worth noting are the relatively long tails to the downside and the weak market reaction...
Fundamentally, the cryptocurrency market (community as a whole) for the past week did not get anything positive as from the very beginning of this year, the growth can be attributed to the 90-day technical break by Trump, but there are a number of nuances:
- the fire has not yet been put out
- just because they gave a 90-day break doesn't mean everything is fine. It's just a head start for the U.S. to prepare for the situation more thoroughly
- The escalating conflict between the U.S. and China has investors looking for less risky assets like gold. Cryptocurrencies are definitely not on that list.
- Rumors of a US interest rate cut are likely to provide support as well.
Resistance levels: 84700, 88800
Support levels: 78200, 73-74К, 66500
I would not hurry with conclusions about further growth. Growth could be considered if bitcoin overcomes 88800 and consolidates above this zone. But a sharp approach or a false breakout of one of the mentioned liquidity zones may provoke a reversal and fall.
Regards R. Linda!
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Waiting For BreakoutIt appears that ⚠️BITCOIN is getting ready for a potential upward movement.
Upon analyzing the daily chart, I spotted a falling wedge pattern and a confirmed breakout above its upper boundary.
The final hurdle for buyers is the resistance level between 8,7478 and 88799 on a daily chart.
If the bulls are able to surpass and close above this level, it will be a significant bullish signal.
This could lead to a continuation of the bullish trend, possibly reaching the next resistance level.
Bitcoin: Anything Goes Inside The Range.Bitcoin has rallied out of my anticipated 76K AREA reversal zone (see my previous week's analysis). I anticipated this move BEFORE all of the news and drama that transpired over the week because I focus on relevant information that came from this chart. As of now, price is fluctuating in the middle of a consolidation. While price is still attractive in terms of the bigger picture for investment, the fact that it is in the middle of a short term consolidation must be strongly considered for day and swing trade strategies. Here's my perspective.
A double bottom (failed low) has been established around the 74 to 76K area. It does NOT matter why, all that matters is the structure is now in place. This is very important for two specific reasons: 1) it is a broader higher low (Wave 4 bottom?) which implies a higher high or at least test of high is more likely to follow. This means test of 109K over the coming months is within reason. 2) Resistance levels have a greater chance of breaking while supports have a greater chance of being maintained. Current prices up into the 90K resistance are attractive for dollar cost averaging while broader risk can be measured by the 76K area low.
As for swing trades, price is fluctuating at a mid point of a consolidation. The range low is around 76K, the high around 88K (see arrow). When it comes to smaller time frame strategies, consolidation mid points are HIGHLY random areas. This is where you either WAIT it out for a support or resistance to be reached before taking a signal OR go with continuation patterns (Trade Scanner Pro great for this). The higher probability scenario would be a minor retrace into the high 70Ks or low 80Ks for a swing trade long. Otherwise WAIT for the 88K to 90K resistance area for short signals which would be EXTREMELY aggressive given the fact Bitcoin is generally bullish.
And day trades strategies have a similar outlook. Being in the middle of the range means smaller time frame supports and resistances within the area 83K to 88K are going to be less reliable or more random until price momentum asserts itself on the bigger picture. Beginners should simply avoid this environment, but if you must participate, the best way to adjust is work on smaller time frames like 5 minute or less and accept the whatever the R:R ratio is for that time frame. Either way do NOT expect BIG moves until price makes its way to one of the outer boundaries of the range. The Trade Scanner Pro quantifies the R:R for your chosen time frame and gives you a much better idea of what to expect.
The illustration on the chart points to a short term rejection of the 88K to 90K area resistance. This can be attractive for those who are willing to accept greater risk and operate on smaller time frames. IF Bitcoin breaks 90K, it can easily squeeze into the 95K area and all it takes is an unexpected news announcement which seems to happen regularly in this environment. NO ONE knows where the market is going, we can only assign probabilities which is why RISK must be assessed and RESPECTED before ANYTHING else.
This game is hard not because traders lack intelligence, it is because MOST participants believe they are consuming information that is relevant, especially if this behavior has been reinforced by random wins. As retail traders we have to operate with a blind fold while a small minority of participants operate with HIGH quality information. Here's a hint: you will not find truly relevant information on public platforms like Twitter, mainstream news, etc., yet people still turn to these sources when they feel the need to be "informed". Everything you NEED is on your chart.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Mastering Volatile Markets: Why Patience is Your Biggest Edge█ Mastering Volatile Markets Part 3: Why Patience is Your Biggest Edge
If you've read Part 1 about position sizing and Part 2 on liquidity , then you already know how to adapt to the mechanics of volatile markets. The next great tool in your arsenal will be patience.
Your biggest opponent in wild markets is your own mind.
In volatile markets, your emotions can easily get the best of you. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is one of the most dangerous emotions that drives poor decisions.
█ FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) Hits Hardest in Volatile Markets
Wild price swings, like 300-500 point moves in the Nasdaq or Bitcoin jumping $1000 in seconds, can make it feel like easy money is everywhere.
You can quickly get the overwhelming temptation to chase moves , especially when it seems like you're missing every opportunity.
This is where most traders lose.
Let me state some harsh truths that I had to learn the hard way through many losses:
Volatility doesn't equal opportunity.
Fast moves don't mean easy trades.
Most wild price moves are designed to trap liquidity and punish impatience.
The true reality is that the market wants you to overreact in these conditions.
It wants you to buy after a big move.
It wants you to short after a flush.
It thrives on you being emotional, chasing, and reacting.
Because reactive traders = liquidity providers for smart money.
Every single trader has made this mistake — not just once, but over and over again. Jumping into the market after a big move, hoping it will continue… but what usually happens? The market snaps back and stops you out.
Can you relate? Share your story or experience with this in the comments below!
█ What Experienced Traders Do Instead
⚪ They Know the First Move is Often the Trap
Breakout? Expect a fakeout.
Breakdown? Expect a snapback.
New high? Watch for stop hunts.
New low? Watch for a flush.
Effectively speaking, pro traders don't chase the market. We wait for stop hunts to complete, liquidity grabs to finish, price to return into their zone, and for confirmations before entering the market.
⚪ They Train Patience Like a Skill
Professional traders aren't more patient because they're "special." We are patient because we’ve learned the hard way that chasing leads to pain.
⚪ They Know When Not to Trade
It is bad to trade when there’s no clear structure, no clean confirmation, if the spread is too wide or when the liquidity is too thin.
Instead, pro traders let the market come to them , not the other way around.
⚪ They Turn FOMO into Confidence
Instead of saying, "I'm missing the move…" , I recommend you think:
"If it ran without me — it wasn't my trade."
"If it comes back into my setup — now it's my trade."
█ So, what have we learned today?
Volatility triggers FOMO. FOMO triggers bad decisions. Bad decisions trigger losses.
To win long-term, you must stay calm, selective and professional. Let other traders be emotional liquidity. That's how you survive volatile markets.
█ What We Covered Already:
Part 1: Reduce Position Size
Part 2: Liquidity Makes or Breaks Your Trades
Part 3: Why Patience is Your Biggest Edge
█ What's Coming Next in the Series:
Part 4: Trend Is Your Best Friend
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
BTCUSD next move(expecting a bearish move)(16-04-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (16-04-2025) (MID TERM)
Current price- 83,800
wait for the break-out
"if Price stay below 85,800 then next target is 81800, 79,800 and 76000 above that 88,000.
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
Bitcoin - All Time Highs Are Inevitable!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still massively bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the correction of about -30% which we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin remains in a bullish market. Even if we see another drop of about -20%, this will still just turn into a textbook bullish break and retest and either way, new all time highs will follow on Bitcoin.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $400.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
#BTC is ready to move! Bullish Move Ahead!#BTC Weekly Update:
Bitcoin's weekly chart is looking strong.
IMHO, the risk of not being invested at this stage is higher than the risk of being invested.
Everything is aligning well when we analyze these fractals.
This current bull market has been different from previous cycles, with Bitcoin underperforming compared to earlier runs, but that only makes this moment even more crucial.
The worst seems behind us, and we’re entering a new bullish phase. 🌅
Do you agree?
Please hit the like button if you like it.
Thank you
#PEACE
BITCOIN's 1D MA50 Flip = GREEN LIGHT for the NEXT BIG PUMP!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed Saturday's 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since February 03)! The 1D MA50 got tested and rejected the price 6 times since then. At the same time, the price marginally broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 20 All Time High (ATH).
This is the most powerful short-term bullish combination as it was staged on a Bullish Divergence 1D RSI, which is on Higher Lows against the bearish trend's Lower Lows. Technically such break-outs immediate Target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which now happens to be just below the $100k mark at $99500. In not such a coincidental fashion, that is he last Resistance level that run through February 05 - 21 before BTC's strong tariff sell-off.
So do you think the 1D MA50 break is the green light for a $99500 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTC - Two Bullish Scenarios...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 BTC has been overall bearish, trading within the falling channel marked in red.
The $70,000 area is a key confluence zone — it aligns with the lower red trendline, horizontal support, a psychological round number, and a potential demand zone.
📚 According to my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I’ll be looking for bullish reversal setups — such as a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and more.
🏹In parallel, for the bulls to take over long-term, and shift the entire trend in their favor, a break above the last major high marked in red at $88,888 is needed!
📚 Reminder:
Always stick to your trading plan — entry, risk management, and trade management are key.
Good luck, and happy trading!
All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BITCOIN just triggered the ultimate post-Halving BUY SIGNAL!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit last week the top of the green Gaussian Channel (GC), a key indicator as last time it did (September 02 2024), kickstarted the massive 2024 rally towards the end of the year.
In fact, it can be argued that when BTC makes contact with the GC during a Bull Cycle, it is the ultimate pull-back Buy Signal after Halving events. More specifically, during the previous Cycle and after the May 2020 Halving, the price touched the GC three times (August 31 2020, July 19 2021 and September 20 2021), all of which were the most optimal pull-back Buy Entries as Bitcoin rebounded instantly.
So far during this Cycle and after the April 2024 Halving, this is the 2nd time the GC is tested. As mentioned the first also initiated an instant rebound. As a result, the current GC test is technically considered a very strong buy opportunity for the remainder of the Cycle, which based on the Time Cycles of the last 2 Cycle Tops, it should peak around October 06 2025.
So what do you think? If buying now towards a potential October 2025 Top, the perfect opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN's ultimate VIX bottom signal-Last time gave +100% profitBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to make yet another green day, yesterday not only did it close above its 1D MA50 again but was also the 4th green day in the last 6. This attempt is showing that the trend is gradually shifting again towards long-term bullish but today we'll present to you another one, this time in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX).
BTC's (orange trend-line) recent rise is naturally on a negative correlation with VIX (red trend-line) which is currently pulling back after it's most aggressive spike since the COVID flash-crash (March 2020).
Their ratio BTCUSD/VIX (blue trend-line) made a very interesting contact with the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the August 24 2015 Low, which was the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle. Since then it made Higher Lows on March 16 2020, August 05 2024 and the most recent, April 07 2025. Every time it was a bottom indication and a massive rally followed. The 'weakest' of all was the previous one, which 'only' gave a +105% rise approximately. Based on that, there is no reason not to expect BTC to hit at least $150k by the end of this Bull Cycle.
Do you think that's a plausible target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTC/USD) breakout up trand analysis Read The ChaptianMr SMC Trading point update
bullish analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe, showing a potential breakout and rally scenario. breakdown:
---
1. Market Structure:
Downtrend Channel: Price has been moving within a falling channel.
Double Bottom Pattern: Marked by two green arrows — a bullish reversal signal.
Breakout Attempt: Price is testing the upper trendline and 200 EMA (~$83,952), suggesting possible breakout.
---
2. Key Zones:
FVG (Fair Value Gap): Around $78,678 — a demand zone where price could retest before moving higher.
Breakout Confirmation Zone: ~$85,130 — breaking above this with volume signals strength.
Target Point: $95,206 — an upside target projecting ~31.77% gain from the breakout.
---
3. Indicators:
200 EMA: Currently acting as resistance. Break above it confirms bullish momentum.
RSI: Around 60 — pointing upward with bullish divergence from recent lows, showing increasing buying pressure.
---
4. Scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation):
Breaks above trendline and 200 EMA.
Retest (optional) and then heads toward $95,206 target.
Scenario 2 (Retest First):
Price dips into the FVG/demand zone.
Finds support and launches upwards, confirming a strong base.
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Summary of the Idea:
This is a buy setup on breakout or on pullback:
Aggressive Entry: Break and close above $85,130.
Safe Entry: Pullback into $78,678 area (FVG).
Target: $95,206
Risk Zone: Below $78,000 (invalidates bullish structure).
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
BTCUSD: 4H Golden Cross to skyrocket it to $100kBitcoin has stabilized from the strong correction earlier in the month and that is reflected on its neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = 70.800, ADX = 32.691). This suggests that the market has priced a bottom and since it already broke over the LH trendline, the 4H Golden Cross that was just formed today may be the trigger to resume the long term bullish trend. The bottoming pattern is a very favorable Inverted Head and Shoulders, which technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. With the 1D RSI already on a HL bullish divergence, we are buying this breakout, aiming at the 2.0 Fib extension (TP = 100,000), which is very conveniently just under the 0.786 Fib from the ATH, typically a recovery's first target.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Telescope Lens: The Final Zoom-InLet me say this loud and clear—this isn’t just another bullish idea.
It’s not a maybe. It’s not a prediction. It’s a warning shot before the eruption.
I’ve seen what’s coming.
Not through speculation, not through recycled charts,
but through the kind of calculated pressure that only Smart Money knows how to load behind the scenes.
You’ve seen me call the impossible.
You’ve watched me go quiet right before the storm.
And now—I'm speaking again.
But this time, I’m not the same trader you used to know.
Things have changed.
The way I see the market has evolved.
This isn’t instinct anymore—it’s Telescope Lens precision.
I don’t just look at price—I pierce through it.
I don't follow trends—I dissect them.
I don't trade setups—I expose the blueprint behind them.
Because what’s loading isn’t small. It’s shift-level.
It's bullish not by structure—but by force.
And when it hits, many will call it luck.
But you? You were warned. You were shown.
So, if you’ve ever doubted me—this is the time to shut that voice down.
And if you’ve followed me for long enough, you know what happens when I speak like this:
Something massive is about to break loose.
And no, I won’t spell it out twice.
This is Telescope Lens mode which means were in a dump mode.
BTC has broken bearish channel resistance on daily chart BTC has broken bearish channel resistance on daily chart.
Generally in those situations the most common outcome is that the price action returns back to the channel first and forms new low, and after that it can flip and change the trend or it can resume the bearish move.
Anther possibility here is that we are entering range in are between 75k and 87k.
In, short I do not recommend buying at the moment. I would like the price at lower levels before I make new long entry.