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BTCUSD trade ideas

BITCOIN, trend outlook for this summerWhile the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements, including a major technical risk and two factors that are, on the contrary, favorable to a new record this summer. 1) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving is still long Let's start with the cyclical aspect of bitcoin, the famous 4-year cycle built around the quadrennial halving. The last halving took place in April 2024, and if the cycle repetition works again, then the current cycle is due to end at the end of 2025. So there's still time for bitcoin to set a new record, even if it comes under short-term pressure - it still has 5 months to go. The first chart below summarizes the 4-year cycle by averaging the time and price of all previous cycles since 2009. Our current cycle is represented by the red curve, and in terms of probability, the end of the cycle is expected between October and December 2025. There's still time, and this is the first major piece of information in our article. 2) A bearish technical divergence in weekly data calls for great caution On the other hand, technical analysis of the bitcoin price in weekly data gives a warning signal with the presence of a bearish price/momentum divergence, market momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator. This bearish divergence resembles that at the end of the previous cycle in November 2021, but the comparison stops here. At that time, all end-of-cycle models were on alert, but this is not the case today. Nevertheless, we must be aware that this bearish divergence could be a pressure factor this summer. 3) Global liquidity as represented by the M2 monetary aggregate gives grounds for optimism about bitcoin's summer trend Global M2 deploys a strong positive correlation with the bitcoin price, and it takes an average of 12 weeks for this liquidity to act on BTC. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and US dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises an essential question: can this momentum be maintained this summer, despite the fundamental challenges of the moment? Such a hypothesis is plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate. According to the latest available data, global M2 has set a new all-time record, and this is a factor supporting the BTC trend for the first part of the summer. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Swissquote
Warning: BTC Just Got Rejected HARD — Next Stop $101KBTCUSDT 4H Technical Analysis – Bearish Setup in Motion The current 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT on Binance paints a clearly bearish picture, driven by strong confluence between the Ichimoku Cloud system, price structure, and descending trend channel. Market sentiment has shifted from indecision to downside control, and unless bulls reclaim critical zones soon, a drop toward $101,900 appears highly likely. Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish Confirmation on Multiple Levels The Ichimoku Cloud indicator in this setup plays a dominant role in forming the bearish bias. First, the price action has broken below the Kumo (cloud) and is currently rejecting it from the underside. This behavior alone signals a shift in sentiment, as the cloud now acts as dynamic resistance. The Tenkan-sen (conversion line), shown in blue, has crossed below the Kijun-sen (baseline) in red—this is a strong bearish crossover. Notably, this crossover occurred below the cloud, which within Ichimoku principles is considered one of the most powerful bearish signals available. It reflects a synchronized decline in both short-term and medium-term momentum. Furthermore, the future cloud (Senkou Span A and B projection) is flat and shaded in red, signaling weak bullish momentum ahead and strengthening the case for a downward continuation. Flat Kumo tops also indicate a magnet for price, often pulling it back for a re-test before continuation—precisely what is unfolding here. The Chikou Span (lagging line), which plots the current price 26 periods back, is well below both the price and the Kumo. This further confirms that market sentiment, momentum, and trend direction are all biased to the downside. Price Structure and Trend Channel Overlaying the chart is a clearly defined descending parallel channel, capturing the recent series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has respected this channel on multiple occasions, rebounding near its bounds and reacting to its midline as dynamic support and resistance. Currently, BTCUSDT is moving lower after retesting the mid-range of this descending channel, which aligns with the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. This overlap creates a powerful resistance confluence between $104,600 and $105,800—exactly where price was rejected in the most recent candle clusters. The repeated failure to break back into the cloud shows that supply pressure is overwhelming, and bulls are losing grip of any short-term recovery. Liquidity Zones and Risk-Reward Mapping A red shaded area marks the resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the cloud and the mid-channel structure. This region, between $104,600 and $105,900, has repeatedly acted as a rejection area and represents where sellers are currently stepping in with confidence. Meanwhile, the projected target is highlighted through the green shaded rectangle, roughly between $101,900 and $102,200, representing the next strong demand zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel. The downward arrow on the chart visually reinforces this bearish idea, indicating a continuation of the current momentum toward those support levels. Trade Setup Based on Chart This current structure provides a clean, high-probability trade opportunity for bearish traders looking to capitalize on further downside in BTC: • Entry Zone: $104,500 – $105,000 • Stop Loss: Above $106,200 (just above cloud resistance and recent rejection wicks) • Target: $101,900 • Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.3 (depending on entry) Final Thoughts The technical case for shorting BTCUSDT here is robust. The Ichimoku system aligns on all fronts—price below the cloud, bearish Tenkan/Kijun crossover under the Kumo, a red future cloud, and a bearish Chikou Span. On top of that, price action is obeying a descending channel and just rejected from its midpoint. If this setup plays out as expected, BTC is likely to retest the $101,900 region before bulls attempt to regain control. Scalpers may consider dynamic trailing stops below $104,000, but positional shorts can hold with clear invalidation above the red cloud zone.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by SupertradeOfficial
The chart illustrates a recent downtrendChart Overview ⚙️ Price Action: The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, followed by consolidation near the current level of $104,933. A bullish reversal structure is forming, marked by the label “Ch0CH” (Change of Character), which suggests a potential trend shift from bearish to bullish. 🧠 Liquidity Concept : The chart highlights a horizontal line labeled “Equal High Liquidity” around the $108,800 level. This area suggests a liquidity pool where stop orders might be resting above the equal highs. Market makers may drive price toward this area to collect liquidity before reversing or continuing. 📈 Projected Price Path : A white dotted line projects a possible bullish move: First, a minor retracement or accumulation phase. Then, an upward impulse aiming to take out the equal highs near $108,800. 🧩 Interpretation: This chart implies a bullish outlook based on: Break in bearish structure (Ch0CH). Liquidity draw above equal highs. Anticipation of smart money concepts (e.g., liquidity sweeps, inducement moves).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by King_Maker_FX
Bitcoin - Plan for summer 2025 (no new ATH, big range!)Bitcoin's price action is statistically very boring during summer seasons! Usually high volatility kicks in in September. I think we cannot really expect a new all-time high in the next few weeks. Instead, we should see a big range. Why? Let's take a look at technical analysis. On the chart we can clearly see a blue trendline, and price went below this trendline at the end of May. This indicates that the uptrend is over and a consolidation/distribution phase is in progress. This phase is usually represented as a bull flag, triangle, rectangle, or wedge. When we look at the current price action, it looks like a bullish flag consolidation pattern. In this case we will probably see multiple liquidity sweeps below the previous swing lows to kick out early longs. There are 2 types of traders. The first one they love to trade ranges, and the second they love to trade breakouts and higher volatility environments. Currently I think Bitcoin is creating a range, so do not expect any crazy movements until this range is valid. Bullish flags are usually bullish patterns, but often they break down and act like bearish patterns. So what would happen if this bullish flag breaks down? That would send the price of Bitcoin to the 0.618 FIB, which is at 88,882 USDT. What is this bullish flag breaks out? That would send the price of Bitcoin to 116,000 to 125,000, but to establish this price we first need to see low of the bull flag, which is not confirmed yet. I will definitely inform you in one of my next analyses, so write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. At the end of each post, I share my professional trading tips: "If you realize you’ve made a poor trading decision, exit before the stop loss forces you out." Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by paltena
Bitcoin Update June 15th 2025📊 Summary: Bitcoin leaning slightly bearish short term, but trendline still intact ... 🟢 Bullish Signals Price still above the orange trendline support (bullish structure intact). Money Flow Index (green) is still in the positive zone. Green dot was printed recently (momentum reversal signal). Still above the $100K psychological level, and strong support at ~$100,023. 🔴 Bearish Signal Price rejected hard from resistance (~$110,616–$112,000 zone). Lower high pattern forming. Stoch RSI is curling down after peaking — early signal of momentum loss. Market is struggling to reclaim $105,745, a key level. ... 🔄 Key Levels to Watch: 🔼 Resistance $105,745 – $110,616 Reclaiming = bullish continuation 🟧 Support $100,023 Break = bearish shift 🟨 Next Support $93,037 Below here = deeper correction possible ... 📉 Verdict: Short-term: Bearish bias (momentum cooling, resistance holding) Mid-term: Neutral/Bullish (structure still intact as long as $100K holds) ..... 📌 Setup Type: Support Bounce or Breakdown Play Timeframe: Daily (swing trade setup) Risk Profile: Medium Indicators Used: Price structure, support/resistance, trendline, momentum oscillators ... 🟢 Bullish Scenario – Long Setup 🔹 Entry: $100,200–$101,000 (trendline retest and major support zone) 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below $98,000 (Invalidates the higher-low structure and breaks trendline) 🔹 Targets: 1. $105,745 – reclaim level (TP1) 2. $109,118 – Fib extension (TP2) 3. $112,000 – recent high resistance (TP3) 🔹 Risk/Reward Estimate: RR ~3:1 (depending on exact entry/exit) ... 🔻 Bearish Scenario – Short Setup 🔹 Entry: Break and retest below $100,000 (Look for a candle close under + rejection on retest) 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above $101,200 🔹 Targets: 1. $93,037 – strong horizontal support (TP1) 2. $89,750 – deeper wick target (TP2) 🔹 Risk/Reward Estimate: RR ~2.5:1 ... 🧠 Bonus Tip – Use Alerts: 🔔 Set alerts at: $100,200 (to watch for bounce setup) $98,000 (for breakdown) $105,750 (resistance reclaim confirmation) Note: Retail Sales - Tuesday Unemployment Claims - Wednesday FOMC Rate Decision- Wednesday US Markets Closed - Thursday ... Much love and appreciation, – chevs710
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by chevs710
Bitcoin/US Dollar 1-Hour Price Chart (June 15, 2025)a 1-hour candlestick chart for Bitcoin (BTC) priced in US Dollars (USD), showing a recent price of $105,154.79 with a slight decline of -0.30% (-$311.19). The chart highlights a price range between $103,501.84 and $106,000.00, with a notable support level around $105,154.79 and a resistance zone shaded in pink between $105,217.91 and $105,767.97. The time frame spans from 10:00 to 20:00, with the current time at approximately 15:00.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Alee_Gold_Trader
Ascending Inverse H&S on the BTC weekly chartThe longer it takes to break above this neckline the higher the breakout target will be. I have arbitrarily placed the measured move line at July 18th 2025. If the breakout were to happen on that day the measured move target is around 208k, which could take quite awhile to reach or if we entered a truly hyperparabolic blow off top we could reach such a target way quicker than when the dotted measured move line reaches it. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
"It was a random flight away.." learn these 3 stepsI was reading a book On negotiating by Chris Voss. It reminded me of the time i got into a fight with a drunk friend. It was not fair he was drunk and I was sober.He won the fight because As soon as he hit me as I barely Dodged the punch, it hurt. I froze. Immediately pulled back using round kicks and flying kicks to keep distance It was a random flight away from the fight. I used my words "relax!!" I moved fast put a palm of my Hand stretched on his chest, "If he breaks this stop sign..." I thought in that moment To me that was my signal... Self defense is not easy You will get hurt protecting your pride.That fight humbled me. Negotiating is about losing your fight to give the other person what they want.Then using your position to get what you need.I needed peace. Because I was not interested in escalating the situation with drunk person. Bitcoin is very very volatile.This is what makes me tell you don't use margin.Margin or leverage in Trading is like fighting a drunk friend. The moment the fight is over so is the friendship.Take ownership.Buy it and save it in a hardware wallet. The price is above the 50 EMA The price is above the 200 EMA The price gapped up about a month ago That's the 3 Step Rocket Booster Strategy Cold storage is your self defense.You won't participate in the mania but you will survive the fight and make money to live another day. 🚀 Boost this content to learn more Disclaimer ⚠️ Trading is risky please learn about Risk Management And Profit Taking Strategies.Also don't use margin and use a simulation trading account before you use real money.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by lubosi
$BTC Holding But Still Bearish Bias Due to War Risk Bitcoin is trading around $106K, but fear from escalating US–Iran–Israel tensions is keeping the market cautious. 🔸 Key Support Zone: $99,763 – $103,112 As long as BTC stays above this area, it's safe. But if broken, expect a move toward $90,209. 🔸 Upside Target: $110K (Paused) Breakout chances remain low unless global tensions ease. 🔸 Risk Level: $99K A daily close below this flips the chart fully bearish. 🔸 Action Plan: We're still in a short bias zone due to war fears. Hedge remains active. Stay light, stay alert — volatility can spike fast.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoSkullSignal
Bitcoin Consolidates Near Highs — Bullish Wedge Signals StrengthHolding Strong Amid Uncertainty: Despite rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading near recent highs. This stability reflects strong institutional confidence and sustained accumulation by long-term holders. Bullish Technical Setup: The ongoing consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000 is forming a wedge pattern—a classic bullish continuation structure. This suggests the market is coiling for its next major move. Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Resistance: $112,500 Support Zone: Holding above $100,000 keeps the bullish case intact Measured Move Target: $130,000–$135,000 Outlook: This tight consolidation signals a healthy pause in a strong uptrend, positioning Bitcoin for a potential breakout and continuation higher. All signs point to the bulls remaining firmly in control. #Bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishWedge #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalBuying #PriceAction #Geopolitics #SupportAndResistance #BullRun
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Richtv_official
₿itcoin: Continuing B WaveBitcoin has recently reclaimed the key $106,000 level. Under our primary scenario, we anticipate continued increases into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891 – where green wave B is expected to conclude. From that corrective peak, we project a significant move lower in wave C, which should ultimately pull prices into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. This range is expected to mark the completion of orange wave a. We then foresee a brief corrective rally before wave (ii) completes its broader correction with a final sell-off. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
BTCUSD Breakout retest at 103.800Trend Overview: Bitcoin BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher. Key Technical Levels: Support: 103,800 (primary pivot), followed by 102,260 and 100,900 Resistance: 107.300 (initial), then 110,300 and 113,680 Technical Outlook: A pullback to the 103,800 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 107,300, 110,310, and ultimately 113,680. Conversely, a daily close below 103,800 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 102,260 and 100.900 as downside levels. Conclusion: Bitcoin BTCUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 103,800 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 107,300 area. A breakdown below 103,800, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TradeNation