Bitcoin is heading into its final low before bull market?Bitcoin got rejected at the 1-Day Cycle top and is now pulling back toward the 1-Day Cycle lows.
While most investors are getting bored and slowly shifting their attention elsewhere, crypto is quietly consolidating and gearing up for a BIG move...
Will we break above $100K, or are we heading into a recession and full-on bear market mode?
Next week will be a decisive one for the entire crypto market this year.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above $77,000 as the 1-Day Cycle hits Day 20, we could be on the verge of a run toward $100K. But if we drop below the previous 1-Day Cycle low, trouble’s coming.
Confused? Just check out this chart.
It’s easy to lay out both the bullish and bearish cases—but it’s a whole different game to quantify, commit to a position, and wait for the more probable outcome to play out.
Which scenario is more likely?
In short: the green one . Here’s why:
The 2-Week Cycle has spent over 4 weeks below 20, completely crushing bullish sentiment.
The 1-Week Cycle has been below 20 for over 2 months—the longest stretch in the past 5 years.
The 3-Day Cycle hasn’t fully reset, but reversed to the upside last week due to positive price action.
We’re on Day 46 of the 60-Day Cycle, and price has been holding up well. We’ve tested the $80K zone a couple of times, and Bitcoin still seems eager to push higher.
For the first time in a while, there are more bears than bulls (according to Polymarket).
On that note—check the Polymarket predictions
BTCUSD trade ideas
Long trade opportunity is coming Bitcoin price is starting to look interesting for a long trade opportunity.
Currently Bitcoin is in the range bound between 75,000 approx and 89,500 aprox (blue rectangular box in the chart).
EMA 200 is horizontally running through in the middle of the range and EMA 21, 55 and 200 are starting to get bunched up together. I really like this set up because when this happens, it is often followed by a strong directional move. All you need for now is patience, which is the hardest thing to do.
I will open a long position if the following conditions are met:
1) Daily MACD and RSI will move into the bull zone and they are clearly pointing to the upside.
2)The price will move and close above the descending trendline.
3) EMAs are going to start to spread out and line up properly (EMA 21>55>200 for long)
For whatever reasons, if I feel I need to be more cautious, I might wait for the price to move and close above 93,000 (above orange rectangular box area) because it is a high liquidity area and I think a lot of price manipulation might happen.
Bitcoin following 2013-2017 Fractal UPDATE - have we left it ?This chart remains unchanged from the last time I posted it except for the addition of that yellow Dashed Arrow
As we can see, PA fell below the Fractal in Late February and ever since, we have ranged further away from it.
Does this mean we have left the fractal we have been on since November 2021 ?
Not really.
PA fell below it in 2022 due to pressures from Interest rates making companies collapse and sentiment being negative.
We have fallen below it this time purely because PA was so overbought, it needed to recover.
This can be very clearly seen on the Weekly MACD, where in 2024, we ranged for months because of the same reason.
See how on the weekly MACD, how once we reached near Neutral, we bounced back up to a New ATH and, ever since, BTC PA has ranged while waiting for the MACD to cool off..
And now we are there. MACD is in the bounce zone and has shown some strength in the last few days.
So, The Fractal
For PA to get back above that Fractal, we need PA to make a very strong push higher. and as you can see from the Bold Arrow, this is achievable by end of May if PA rises Strong and continually
form here.
I am not to sure this will happen.
We have so many Macro events destabilising the markets...
I am more inclined to think PA will hit that circle , and we will likely follow the Dashed Arrow to a cycle ATH of near 300K, by the end of the year at the latest.
This is the Path of safety.
Things can always change for the better or for the worse and so we have to be ready for all occasions.
But BULLISH is the word - BUT BITCOIN ON SPOT, HOLD IT AND RELAX
BTC MARKET OUTLOOKBTC just made an imbalance sweep into the 70K range, setting the stage for a bullish wedge formation.
Price action now looks poised to mitigate and potentially break above the previous high at 105K. Momentum is building — watch closely yall.follow for more insight, comment , and boost idea
BTC STILL STRUGGLINGBitcoin continues to struggle with the 50-day moving average, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Price is hovering just below it, unable to break through cleanly, and the 200 MA remains overhead, adding additional pressure from above.
Market structure remains bearish for now – we’re still printing lower highs and lower lows. That structure won’t flip until Bitcoin can break decisively above $88,804, the last significant swing high from late March. A close above that level would mark a higher high and potentially signal a trend reversal.
Until then, it’s just a relief rally within a broader downtrend. The bulls need to reclaim key levels with conviction – otherwise, this could be a pause before another leg lower.
BTC Last growth before a serious plunge! We're approaching the final leg up in this bull cycle. My projection puts the ultimate ATH around $120K, likely reached in the coming months. But don't get too comfortable—what follows could shake the market.
I'm expecting a 5-wave ABCDE correction that could bring BTC back down to the $58–60K zone, with the correction likely concluding around March 2026.
This could be the last major pump before a multi-year reset. Buckle up and plan your exits wisely. 📉📈
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #Altcoins #CycleTop #BearMarketPrep
Position Sizing StrategiesPosition sizing is one of the most important aspects in risk management for traders. Proper position sizing helps manage the risk effectively by maximizing profits and limiting the losses. In this publication, we will explore popular position sizing strategies and how to implement them in pinescript strategies
🎲 Importance of Position Sizing in Trading
Let's take an example to demonstrate the importance of position sizing. You have a very good strategy that gives you win on 70% of the times with risk reward of 1:1. If you start trading with this strategy with all your funds tied into a single trade, you have the risk of losing most of your fund in the first few trades and even with 70% win rate at later point of time, you may not be able to recoup the losses. In such scenarios, intelligent position sizing based on the events will help minimize the loss. In this tutorial, let us discuss some of those methods along with appropriate scenarios where that can be used.
🎲 Position Sizing Strategies Available in Tradingview Strategy Implementation
🎯 Fixed dollar amount position sizing In this method, trader allocate a fixed value of X per trade. Though this method is simple, there are few drawbacks
Does not account for varying equity based on the trade outcomes
Does not account for varying risk based on the volatility of the instrument
🎯 Fixed Percentage of Equity In this method, percent of equity is used as position size for every trade. This method is also simple and slightly better than the Fixed dollar amount position sizing. However, there is still a risk of not accounting for volatility of the instrument for position sizing.
In tradingview strategies, you can find the position sizing settings in the properties section.
In both cases, Pinescript code for the entry does not need to specify quantity explicitly, as they will be taken care by the framework.
if(longEntry)
strategy.entry('long', strategy.long)
if(shortEntry)
strategy.entry('short', strategy.short)
🎲 Advanced Position Sizing Strategies
There are not directly supported in Tradingview/Pinescript - however, they can be programmed.
🎯 Fixed Fractional Method
The Fixed Fractional Method is similar to the fixed percentage of equity method/fixed dollar amount positioning method, but it takes into account the amount of risk on each trade and calculate the position size on that basis. This method calculates position size based on the trader’s risk tolerance, factoring in stop-loss levels and account equity. Due to this, the trader can use any instrument and any timeframe with any volatility with fixed risk position. This means, the quantity of overall trade may vary, but the risk will remain constant.
Example.
Let's say you have 1000 USD with you and you want to trade BTCUSD with entry price of 100000 and stop price of 80000 and target of 120000. You want to risk only 5% of your capital for this trade.
Calculation will be done as follows.
Risk per trade = 5% of 1000 = 50 USD
Risk per quantity = (entry price - stop price) = 20000
So, the quantity to be used for this trade is calculated by
RiskQty = Risk Amount / Risk Per Quantity = 50 / 20000 = 0.0025 BTC
To implement the similar logic in Pinescript strategy by using the strategy order quantity as risk, we can use the following code
riskAmount = strategy.default_entry_qty(entryPrice)*entryPrice
riskPerQty = math.abs(entryPrice-stopPrice)
riskQty = riskAmount/riskPerQty
With this, entry and exit conditions can be updated to as follows
if(longEntry)
strategy.entry('long', strategy.long, riskQty, stop=entryPrice)
strategy.exit('ExitLong', 'long', stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)
if(shortEntry)
strategy.entry('short', strategy.short, riskQty, stop=entryPrice)
strategy.exit('ExitShort', 'short', stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)
🎯 Kelly Criterion Method
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal position size that maximizes the long-term growth of capital, considering both the probability of winning and the payoff ratio (risk-reward). It’s a more sophisticated method that balances risk and reward in an optimal way.
Kelly Criterion method needs a consistent data on the expected win ratio. As and when the win ratio changes, the position sizing will adjust automatically.
Formula is as follows
f = W - L/R
f: Fraction of your capital to bet.
W : Win Ratio
L : Loss Ratio (1-W)
R : Risk Reward for the trade
Let's say, you have a strategy that provides 60% win ratio with risk reward of 1.5, then the calculation of position size in terms of percent will be as follows
f = 0.6 - 0.4/1.5 = 0.33
Pinescript equivalent of this calculation will be
riskReward = 2
factor = 0.1
winPercent = strategy.wintrades/(strategy.wintrades+strategy.losstrades)
kkPercent = winPercent - (1-winPercent)/riskReward
tradeAmount = strategy.equity * kkPercent * factor
tradeQty = tradeAmount/entryPrice
🎲 High Risk Position Sizing Strategies
These strategies are considered very high risk and high reward. These are also the strategies that need higher win ratio in order to work effectively.
🎯Martingale Strategy
The Martingale method is a progressive betting strategy where the position size is doubled after every loss. The goal is to recover all previous losses with a single win. The basic idea is that after a loss, you double the size of the next trade to make back the lost money (and make a profit equal to the original bet size).
How it Works:
If you lose a trade, you increase your position size on the next trade.
You keep doubling the position size until you win.
Once you win, you return to the original position size and start the process again.
To implement martingale in Pine strategy, we would need to calculate the last consecutive losses before placing the trade. It can be done via following code.
var consecutiveLosses = 0
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
consecutiveLosses := lastProfit > 0? 0 : consecutiveLosses + 1
Quantity can be calculated using the number of consecutive losses
qtyMultiplier = math.pow(2, consecutiveLosses)
baseQty = 1
tradeQty = baseQty * qtyMultiplier
🎯Paroli System (also known as the Reverse Martingale)
The Paroli System is similar to the Anti-Martingale strategy but with more defined limits on how much you increase your position after each win. It's a progressive betting system where you increase your position after a win, but once you've won a set number of times, you reset to the original bet size.
How it Works:
Start with an initial bet.
After each win, increase your bet by a predetermined amount (often doubling it).
After a set number of wins (e.g., 3 wins in a row), reset to the original position size.
To implement inverse martingale or Paroli system through pinescript, we need to first calculate consecutive wins.
var consecutiveWins = 0
var maxLimit = 3
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
consecutiveWins := lastProfit > 0? consecutiveWins + 1 : 0
if(consecutiveWins >= maxLimit)
consecutiveWins := 0
The quantity is then calculated using a similar formula as that of Martingale, but using consecutiveWins
qtyMultiplier = math.pow(2, consecutiveWins)
baseQty = 1
tradeQty = baseQty * qtyMultiplier
🎯D'Alembert Strategy
The D'Alembert strategy is a more conservative progression method than Martingale. You increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease it by one unit after a win. This is a slow, incremental approach compared to the rapid growth of the Martingale system.
How it Works:
Start with a base bet (e.g., $1).
After each loss, increase your bet by 1 unit.
After each win, decrease your bet by 1 unit (but never go below the base bet).
In order to find the position size on pinescript strategy, we can use following code
// Initial position
initialposition = 1.0
var position = initialposition
// Step to increase or decrease position
step = 2
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
position := lastProfit > 0 ? math.max(initialposition, position-step) : position+step
Conclusion
Position sizing is a crucial part of trading strategy that directly impacts your ability to manage risk and achieve long-term profitability. By selecting the appropriate position sizing method, traders can ensure they are taking on an acceptable level of risk while maximizing their potential rewards. The key to success lies in understanding each strategy, testing it, and applying it consistently to align with your risk tolerance and trading objectives.
80K pullback is done, but it is not for selling anymoreMorning folks,
So, the upside bounce to 80K resistance that we were watching is done now. It has happened even twice. D. Trump so efficiently tarrifying markets, and them provides them the relief that BTC mostly is just a hostage of this so called "news stream". Actually as well as all other markets.
Once 90 day tariffs postpone has been provided, stocks jumped and liquidity returns, supporting all other things around. It might be temporal? Sure. But nobody knows what in the old Donny's head.
By looking at current action, it seems that 80K support is more reasonable to use for long entry with 85.5 target at least. Definitely it would be better to not sell by far...
Bitcoin: 76K Test Watch For Reversal.Bitcoin has broken the 81,500 minor support and is now in the process of testing the recent swing low 78K to 76K AREA. With the lower high structure at the 88K area (see arrow) in place, a lower low is likely to follow in the coming week. The question is how much lower? One reasonable estimate is a test of 73K (the previous all time high before November). The current area between 79 and 76K does present a buying opportunity on multiple time horizons (investment, swing trades, day trades) but the key to timing this WAITING for confirmation.
From the investing perspective, this is an attractive low because this may establish a reversal formation (double bottom) which may be the bottom of Wave 4. IF this turns out to be true, Wave 5 can potentially begin here. Price can probe as far as 64K before overlapping with Wave 1 of this impulse. Stepping into this our placing a limit order at a lower price is reasonable, but managing risk on this time horizon has a lot to do with your sizing strategy (I have explained this on many streams). Keep in mind price can BREAK and test 73K or lower and you must consider that possibility into your sizing strategy.
As far as swing trades, its the same idea except this is where a defined risk (stop) and profit objective has to be assigned (Trade Scanner Pro shines here). While the level is ideal for a double bottom or failed low (see illustration), there is NO confirmation. So it is still highly risky to step into this, especially in light of the stock market situation, etc. Wait for a bullish pin bar, engulfing candle, etc. You can define risk from there and utilize at least a 2:1 or greater profit objective.
For day trades, its the same process just on smaller time frames, (1 min to 15 min). Just on the day trade time frame, at this time, SHORTS can still be attractive on minor retracements because momentum on these time frames is CLEARLY bearish. If 79K breaks, there is a greater chance momentum continues toward the 76K AREA low.
I realize there must be some news catalyst in play to spark such a move. DO NOT react to the news, this is often a mistake. It doesn't matter what it is because this is a game of recognizing herd mentality behavior and identifying potential opportunities in this context. You want to anticipate an inflection point, WAIT for price behavior to confirm. At that point you can identify risk, and profit expectations. THIS is a MORE objective process compared to "thinking" you know how the news will affect a market. Keep decision making as simple as the "IF this, then that" framework which gives you a more accurate view of market intent since it encourages a more passive view rather than asserting your own irrelevant opinions.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC/USD Bullish Breakout Setup – Targeting $85,477 with 5.62% UpThe price has recently surged above both the 30 EMA (red) and 200 EMA (blue), signaling a strong bullish move.
The EMAs are beginning to turn upward, particularly the 30 EMA, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
Key Levels Identified
Entry Zone (Purple Support Zone):
Around $80,105 – a potential buy zone after a pullback.
Labeled with STOP LOSS, indicating the invalidation level if price drops below this zone.
Target Zone (Purple Resistance Zone):
Around $85,477 – this is the target level, marked as “EA TARGET POINT”.
Offers a potential move of +5.62% or 4,551.83 points.
Price Action
Price broke above a previous resistance (now support) and has pulled back slightly.
The projected move suggests a bullish continuation after a minor pullback and consolidation.
Risk-Reward
Good risk-reward ratio implied with the large gap between the stop loss and target.
Stop loss is tight, just below the purple support zone (~$80,105).
Projection
The blue lines and annotations suggest a bullish play, with an expected upward movement after retesting the support.
✅ Possible Trade Idea
Buy Zone: ~$80,105 (on a confirmed retest)
Stop Loss: Slightly below $80,105
Target: ~$85,477
Expected Move: +5.62%
🔍 Additional Notes
Keep an eye on price behavior around the support zone—confirmation (e.g., bullish candle pattern or rejection wick) strengthens the entry.
The strong move leading to the breakout suggests high momentum, which could mean limited pullback.
News or macro developments could invalidate technicals—be aware of external factors.
BTCUSD - Liquidity Grab Above Resistance? Potential Reversal ?BTCUSD – Liquidity Grab Above Resistance? Potential Reversal Ahead
Timeframe: 1H
Pair: BTC/USD
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Analysis Summary:
As per Our Previous Analysis,Bitcoin has broken above the major resistance near 85,000, tapping into an imbalance zone and grabbing external liquidity above previous highs. This move appears to be a classic liquidity grab, rather than a true breakout.
Key observations:
Price wicked above resistance into imbalance.
Potential trap for breakout traders.
Bearish signs developing with a possible trendline break.
---
Trade Plan:
Short on confirmation of trendline break or bearish structure.
Targets:
TP1: 80,000 (internal liquidity)
TP2: 78,000 (ex-liquidity)
TP3: 77,000 (external liquidity zone)
Stop Loss: Above recent swing high / 86,000
---
Market Sentiment:
Short-term bearish bias due to liquidity collection and imbalance reaction.
Also Keep In Mind :
Their is a Major Resistance above the Imbalance So If the Price break it then we have to be prepared for the other scenario of BTC
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#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquidityGrab #Imbalance #SupportResistance #TrendlineBreak #BearishSetup #Forex #CryptoAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketStructure
BTC LONG TP:88,200 13-04-2025🚀 It's time to go Long! The targets are set between 88,000 and 88,300, with the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes showing a clear bullish pattern in favor of this trend.
We expect this movement to materialize within a timeframe of 20 to 25 hours, so make sure to enter and average down.
Stay tuned for updates to maximize your gains. Follow me to stay informed and add those greens! 💰🔥
BTC/USD 4H:ratio if price respects the bullish setupResistance Zone: Highlighted at the top (around the 90,000–92,000 range), where price has reversed before.
Support Zone: Marked at the bottom (around the 75,000–78,000 level), a strong area where buyers tend to come in.
3. Market Structure
BOS (Break of Structure): Two major BOS areas are circled, indicating a shift in market trend:
The first on the left shows a shift from bullish to bearish.
The second (more recent) on the right shows a bearish structure shifting back to bullish.
4. Chart Annotations
Trend Lines: A blue bullish trend channel showing the current upward movement.
Fib Retracement Levels: Green horizontal lines suggest Fibonacci levels used to identify potential pullbacks or targets.
Path Projection: Black lines with arrows show a possible future price path—expecting a small pullback before resuming upward movement.
5. Emoji & Sentiment
A sweating emoji near the resistance zone implies caution or anxiety, possibly due to expected volatility or strong resistance.
6. Current Status
Price is currently trading around $87,393.68 with potential for a retracement before pushing higher toward the resistance zone around $89,263.74 and beyond.
Buy/Sell markers show Buy at $83,511.13 and Sell at $86,458.39, indicating a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if price respects the bullish setup.
Bitcoin on Edge: US Deregulates, China Cracks DownHello,
Bitcoin Bearish Outlook – April 2025
Market Structure & Technical Overview
Bitcoin continues to underperform as a safe haven asset, falling short of the optimism once compared to gold. Following a consistent formation of lower highs, BTC has once again broken down—hinting at a potential continuation of this bearish trend.
Current Price: Just below the 1M Pivot Point (PP) at $84621.067.
This area is crucial — if price accepts this level as resistance, we are likely to see further downside.
The most recent 1M high stands at $88,781.70 — a level to watch but currently being respected as a ceiling.
Should the price fail to reclaim 84k, the next target is the 1Y PP at $80,283.483. A rejection here opens the door for a move toward strong 1M support at $72,345.065.
Below that, 1Y PP structural support comes into question. If the support gives out, the maximum decline target sits near $56,000, which would represent a full reset of the bullish macro narrative.
Fundamental Headwinds: A Storm Brews
Trump's Latest Move: President Trump has repealed the IRS rule expanding the "broker" definition to decentralized exchanges, a move aimed at deregulating crypto and laying groundwork for a potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
China’s Crackdown Intensifies:
China’s courts and local governments are actively liquidating seized crypto through offshore channels.
The lack of a centralized system raises corruption concerns, but near-consensus is forming around formal asset recognition and centralized liquidation.
Despite a domestic ban, China holds 15,000 BTC, potentially making it the 14th largest holder globally.
The decentralized anonymity principle of cryptocurrency is under increasing threat, as both China and the U.S. shift toward centralized control, regulation, and even reserve-building strategies. This movement contradicts the original ethos of Bitcoin, leading to a bearish sentiment among long-term holders.
Sentiment Snapshot
Metric Status
Technical Structure Bearish
Market Sentiment Neutral, leaning bearish
Macro Fundamentals Bearish
Key Resistance (1M PP) $84,621.067
Next Support (1Y PP) $80,283.483
Strong Support (1M) $72,345.065
Max Decline Scenario $56,000
📉 Mark these key levels:
$88,781.70 – Previous 1M High
$84,621.067– 1M Pivot (Current Resistance)
$80,283.483 – 1Y Pivot (Mid Support)
$72,345.065 – 1M Strong Support
$56,000 – Max Bearish Target
Overlay sentiment zones:
Green (above FWB:88K ): Bullish
Orange (between $80k– FWB:88K ): Neutral
Red (below $80k): Bearish Continuation
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
BTC/USDT – Trap Activated: Is the Final Flush Coming?📆 Follow-up to our April 16 idea:
Back then we warned:
“Fake pump to 85.8K, followed by a drop to 81.5K. Tape is rotten, stops are baited, and Delta screams ‘run!’”
Well... here’s what’s happened since:
✅ What’s been confirmed:
BTC pushed into the 85.5K–85.8K trap zone and got rejected hard
Delta turned positive briefly – but with no price continuation
OI stayed flat = no real conviction = stealth distribution
Tape showed clear absorption at the highs
🎯 The trap we predicted is now active. Bulls walked right into it.
❗ What’s still to come (likely very soon):
The final flush of long positions hasn't happened yet.
Updated liquidation maps (1D & 48H) show massive clusters below 82.8K–81.2K full of over-leveraged longs.
⚠️ If price breaks below 83K with volume + strong red delta...
💣 Expect a liquidation cascade.
🧠 Strategy (Still Aligned with April 16)
🔻 SHORT (Primary Idea)
Entry: Rejection at 85.5K–85.8K
SL: 86.2K
TP1: 83.2K
TP2: 81.5K
🔺 LONG (Only if the flush comes first)
Entry: Sweep down to 82.8K + delta reversal + OI spike
SL: 81.8K
TP: 84.8–85.2K
🌍 Updated Macro Context:
USD still strong 💵
Fed not pivoting anytime soon 🏦
Trump’s BTC reserve news = bullish narrative, but no short-term impact yet
📉 Macro still favors risk-off sentiment
🎭 Final Words from the Pôncio Doctrine:
“The trap is active. The stops are aligned.
Now we just wait for one institutional candle to wipe the board.”
If this breaks… you’ve officially been Pônciado.